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GLOBALTRENDS
TOP Affecting Downtowns& How to Respond at Home
As the American economy pivots into the post-recession
growth cycle, the 2014 edition of P.U.M.A.’s Global Trends Report
prepares downtown management organizations, business leaders
and local decision makers with an informed perspective on converging
trends in demographics, lifestyles and global competition that will
shape our cities for years to come.
eginningin2006,ProgressiveUrbanManagementAssociates (P.U.M.A.)conductedground-breakingresearchtoidentifythe topglobaltrendsimpactingAmericancities.Theoriginal“TopTenGlobalTrendsAffectingDowntowns”waspreparedfortheDowntownDenverPlantoforecastourhometown’sgrowthanddevelopmentpatternsforthenext20years.Fromthefindings,wealsodevelopedpracticalrecommendationsforallAmericandowntownstoanticipateandbenefitfromchange.TheP.U.M.A. Global Trends Reporthassubsequentlybeenutilizedinmanycitiestosupportavarietyofdowntownplanning,marketingandeconomicdevelopmentinitiatives.
In2011,thefirstupdatetoP.U.M.A.’s Global Trends Report wasundertakentorespondtotheimpactofeconomicrecessionandongoingchangesindemo-graphics,lifestylesandglobalcompetition.The2011editionreshuffledhalfofthetrendsandprovidedconvincingevidencethatdowntownsandurbanareaswillcontinuetobenefitfromthem.
Now,in2014,P.U.M.A.teamswiththeUniversityofColoradoDenverCollegeofArchitectureandPlanningtopreparethesecondupdateofP.U.M.A.’s Global Trends Report.Researchwasprovidedby22graduatestudentsfromthefall2013economicdevelopmentsystemsclasstaughtbyP.U.M.A.’sBradSegalandAnnaJones.Morethan250independentsourceswereutilized,reflectingthelatestdataandtheworld’smostsophisticatedthinkersandurbanphilosophers.Classresearchwasverified,supplementedandeditedbyP.U.M.A.’sRenaLeddyandErinLaetz,andthereportwasfinalizedbyBradSegal.
Changing American DemographicsEducation, Talent & JobsEmergence of Young Professional Women
Changing American DemographicsEducation, Talent & JobsIn�uence of Women
Changing American DemographicsImmigration TrendsChanges with the “Creative Class”
Tra�c Congestion & Value of TimeTrends in Health Care/Wellness/RecreationGrowth of TourismAmerica’s Growing Debt Burden
Changing Consumer BehaviorsShifts in Transportation & MobilityHealth, Wellness & Urban FormThe Age of Austerity
Changing Consumer BehaviorsShifts in Transportation & MobilityHealth & WellnessRise of Regionalism
DEMOGRAPHICS
LIFESTYLES
GLOBAL COMPETITIONEmergence of China, India, etc.Continued Advances in TechnologyEnvironmentalism, Sustainability, Climate Change
The Emergence of a Planetary Middle ClassContinued Advances in TechnologySustainability Mainstreamed
Shift in Global WealthContinued Advances in TechnologySocial Equity – The Neglected Pillar of Sustainability
GLO
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2006 2011 2014
Changing American DemographicsEducation, Talent & JobsEmergence of Young Professional Women
Changing American DemographicsEducation, Talent & JobsIn�uence of Women
Changing American DemographicsImmigration TrendsChanges with the “Creative Class”
Tra�c Congestion & Value of TimeTrends in Health Care/Wellness/RecreationGrowth of TourismAmerica’s Growing Debt Burden
Changing Consumer BehaviorsShifts in Transportation & MobilityHealth, Wellness & Urban FormThe Age of Austerity
Changing Consumer BehaviorsShifts in Transportation & MobilityHealth & WellnessRise of Regionalism
DEMOGRAPHICS
LIFESTYLES
GLOBAL COMPETITIONEmergence of China, India, etc.Continued Advances in TechnologyEnvironmentalism, Sustainability, Climate Change
The Emergence of a Planetary Middle ClassContinued Advances in TechnologySustainability Mainstreamed
Shift in Global WealthContinued Advances in TechnologySocial Equity – The Neglected Pillar of Sustainability
GLO
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2006 2011 2014
B B
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PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
2014
America’s population is growing more culturally diverse, as well as younger and older. DemographictrendsintheUnitedStatesremainfavorabletodowntowndevelop-ment.Thepopulationisgrowingbotholder(agingBabyBoomers)andyounger(emergingMillennialsandGenZ).Bothmarketshavefueleddowntownpopula-tiongrowthoverthepastdecadeandarepoisedtocontinuetopopulateurbanenvironments,particularlyinthosecitiesthatofferjobs,housing,amenitiesandactivitiesthatrespondtotheirneeds.Americawillbecomemoreculturallyandethnicallydiverse,creatinganadvantagefordowntownsthatwelcome,accommo-dateandcelebratediversity.Cities need to adapt to an increasingly connected and competitive world.Broaderdistributionofinformationtechnologiesisencouraging“bottom-up”innovationfromentrepreneursthroughouttheglobe.EducationwillbekeyinensuringthatAmericaremainscompetitiveandcitiesthatmakeconnec-tionstohigherinstitutionsoflearningwillbenefit.Downtownsarepoisedtocontinuetobecentersofcreativityandinnovationiftheycanofferabusinessclimatefavorabletotheincubationandgrowthofsmalldynamicenterprises.ThegrowingimportanceofwomenandMillennialsintheAmericanprofessionalclasscreatesopportunitiesfordesigning,programmingandmanagingvibrantandinteractiveurbanenvironments.
Resource-intensive lifestyles are not sustainable. ChangesinAmericanlifestyleswillcon-tinuetobeinfluencedbyglobaltrends.Theemergenceofaplanetarymiddleclasswillstrainthesupplyandincreasethecostsofnon-renewableresources,makingtraditionalsuburbanlanduseandvehiculartransportationpatternsincreasinglyexpensiveandinefficient.Atthesametime,Americanlifestylepref-erencesarefavoringmorewalkable,bike-
ableandtransit-richcommunities.Citieswilllooktomaximizetheuseofexistinginfrastructureandpromotesustainabledevelopment.
Innovation and investment will be more reliant on regional initiative.Anageoffiscalausterityhasdiminishedfederalandstateresourcesdedicatedtoinfrastructure,educationandin-novation,andadvancedeconomies(includingtheU.S.)arespendinglessontheseeconomicbuildingblocksthanemergingeconomieswithlowdebtloadsandstrongcentralgovernments.America’seconomicgrowthwillbeledbycitiesthatchoosetoinvestinregionaltransportation,educationandculturalfacilities.Newpublic/privatefinancingsolutionswillberequired,rangingfromneighborhood-basedcommunityventurefundstoregionalinfrastructurebanks.Awillingnesstoinvest(yes,newtaxes)andinnovate(public/privatepartnerships)willkeepcitiesthatchoosetodosocompetitiveandconnectedtotheglobaleconomy.Thosethatdonotchoosethispathwillbeleftbehindandmiredineconomicstagnation.
Planning for economic diversity is emerging as a priority. Withglobaltrendsintheirfavor,manydowntownsareexperiencinganeco-nomicrenaissancethatisattractingnewinvestmentandhighincomehouseholds.Topreservehopeforupwardmobilityandtheirhistoricalroleindeliveringthe“AmericanDream”,urbancentersneedtoconsidersocialequityinplanningforthefuturebyencouragingavarietyofhousingandtransitoptions,anenhancededucationsystem,publicamenitiesthatpromotehealthylifestylesandpoliciesthatencourageequity.Vibrantdown-townsarewellpositionedtocapitalizeoneconomicopportunitiesintheglobalmarketplacebyofferingtheadvantagesofjobs,entertainment,culture,educa-tion,recreation,healthandlivabilityaccessibletoall.
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GLOBAL TRENDS
DEMOGRAPHICSCapture the young skilled workforce:Downtownshavetheedgeinattractingtheyoungskilledworkforcecovetedbyemployers.Tocapturethismarketpredis-posedtourbanlivingandexperiences,downtownsshouldprovideawelcomingenvironmentandinformationservicesthatmakeiteasytorelocateforjobsandhousing.Embracingsocialtolerance,cel-ebratingmulti-culturalismandusingsocialcommunicationstoolswillinvitepopula-tionsthatareincreasinglydiverseandtechnologicallysavvy.Creativeincentives,suchassubsidizingstudentloandebt,shouldbeconsidered.
Create an environment that appeals to women:Thenextprofessional,work-ingandcreativeclasseswillincreasinglybedominatedbyyoungwomen.SinglefemaleBoomersarealsohavingagrow-inginfluenceintheeconomy.Downtownsmustlookforwaystoappealtowomeninallfacetsofthedowntownexperience,includingphysicalimprovements,environ-mentalstability(i.e.cleanandsafe),mixed-uselivingoptions,transitandmobility,daycare,retailandentertainmentofferings.Encouragingfemaleparticipationinlocalpolicyandurbandesignleadershipposi-tionscouldcreateacompetitiveedge.
Foster education:Educationalinstitutionsarecivicanchors,economicstabilizersandincubatorsofnewcreativebusinessesandjobsthatshouldbeencouragedtolocateandgrowindowntowns.Educa-tioncontinuums,connectinglocalpublicschoolsystemstocollegesandtechnicalschools,shouldbeexplored.Ascitiesworktoattractandretainyoungfamilies,thedevelopmentofqualitydowntownK-12schoolswillbeapowerfulincentive.
Diverse price points and types needed for housing: Toprovideanenvironmentthatattractsamulti-skilledworkforceandeconomically-mixeddemographics,diversehousingpricepointsandunittypesareneeded.Zoningcodes,development
Overall, global trends continue to appear favorable to promote growth in vibrant downtowns.
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GLOBAL TRENDS
The research and conclusions of global trends offer many implications for the future of downtowns. Highlights, as analyzed by Progressive Urban Management Associates (P.U.M.A.), include the following:
2 PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES 3
standardsandincentivesshouldbeupdatedtopromoteopportunitiesforaffordable,flex-ible,multi-generationalandothernontradi-tionalhousingtypes.
Don’t forget the Boomers and look out for Gen Z: TheGreatRecessionhasreducedmo-bilityoptionsforBabyBoomersandmoreareprojectedto“ageinplace.”UrbanamenitiesthatappealtobothBoomersandMillennialsshouldbeconsidered,includingrobustdiningandentertainmentoptions,andinvestmentsinpromotinghealthylifestylesfromdogparkstopublicmarkets.TheeldestofGenZareen-teringadulthoodandwillbelookingforthesesameamenities.
LIFESTYLESImplement comprehensive mobility strate-gies and “living streets”:Downtownsneedtoinvestinstreetscapes,two-wayconversa-tions,connectivityimprovementsandotherwaystoimplement“livingstreets”principlesthatsupportavarietyofmodesbeyondvehicleswithagreateremphasisondesignforbicyclesandpedestrians.Mobilityoptionsareneededasanalternativetocongestedhigh-waysand,importantly,toappealtoyoungerhighly-skilledandeducatedpopulationsthatareincreasinglydisinterestedinautomobileuseandseekingwalkable,bikeableandtransit-richurbanenvironments.Age-friendlyuniversaldesignstandardsshouldbeem-ployedtopromoteaccessibilityforall,fromagingBoomerstoyoungfamilieswithinfantsandtoddlers.
Promote the “sharing economy”:Groundedwithlessconsumptivevaluesandarmedwithmobiletechnologies,MillennialsandGenZconsumersareincreasinglyseekingoppor-tunitiestoshare,rentorresellgoodsandservices.Bicycleandcarsharingwillbetheacceptednormindowntowns.Localizedappsandotheraccessibletechnologyplatformsforsharingconsumergoods,workplaces,hous-ing,recreationandsocialexperienceswillbuildasenseofcommunity.
Cultivate partnerships with health care providers:Withgrowingdemandforhealthcareservices,partnershipswithlocalhealthcareproviderswillbecriticaltocreateacom-petitiveadvantagefordowntowns.Develop-mentandexpansionofhealthcarefacilitieswillbeimportanteconomicstabilizersandcreatesignificantbusinessspinoffs.Accesstohealthcare,throughclinicsandretailap-plications,shouldbepursued.Healthcare
providerswillalsobestrongcivicpartnerstohelppromotehealthylifestylesthroughurbanliving.
Capitalize on the healthy places and food movements:AdvancedbytheUrbanLandInstitute,aglobalfocusonbuildinghealthyplaceswillgrowwithintherealestatedevel-opmentindustry.Downtownscancapitalizeonthistrendbyimprovingthepublicrealmwithactivegreenspaces,invitingconnec-tionsandwalkablestreets.Severalhealthyfoodmovementsareconvergingtobenefitdowntowns.Newretailprototypescanserverapidlygrowingnichesinlocavoreandor-ganicsegments.Urbanfarmingisatrendthatcanthriveindowntownlocationsonrooftopsandvacantland.Initiativestoeradicatefooddesertscanbringcovetedcornerstoresandfull-servicegroceriestounderservedurbanareas.
Keep it fun, entertaining and interesting: Overthepast25yearsmanydowntownshavebecomehubsforentertainment,cultureandsports.Toremaincompetitiveandcontinuetoattractayounganddiverseworkforce,fortify-ingandexpandingdowntowns’experientialattractionswillbecritical.Downtownsshouldintegratenewmobiletechnologiesintomar-ketingandpromotions.Avarietyofculturesandlanguagesshouldalsobeaccommodat-ed,appealingtoanincreasinglydiverselocalpopulationandinternationaltourists.
Be a strong advocate for regional invest-ment and collaboration: Federalandstateinvestmentininfrastructure,mobilityandeducationhasdecreased.Citiesthatchoosetoinvestintheseinitiativeswillthrive;thosethatdonotmaystagnate.Downtownswillneedtoeducatecommunitiesonthebenefitsofregionalcooperationandinvestment.Solu-tionstoincreasingchallengesrelatedtosocialequity,includinghousingaffordability,betterwages,improvedschoolsandhomeless-ness,willrequireregionalapproaches.Anewemphasisfordowntownorganizationsmayincludeintroducingnewskillsetsandleader-shipcapabilitiestoaffectpolicyandfosterregionalcollaboration.
GLOBAL COMPETITION Entrepreneurship will continue to be a key to job growth:Attracting,retainingandgrowingsmallbusinesseswillcontinuetobeakeyforpromotingjobgrowthandremain-inggloballycompetitive.Downtownsshouldexplorewaystobroadensupporttosmall
businessesandstartupsthroughavarietyofmeans,includingtechnicalassistance,co-workingandotherflexspaces,creativeincentivesand/ordesignationofformal“in-novation”zones.
Develop innovative public/private financ-ing tools:WhileGlobalTrendsarefavorablefordowntowninvestment,conventionalfinancingwillbeconstrainedduetolinger-ingeffectsoftherecessionandgovernmentausteritymeasures.Localitieswillneedtodevelopinnovativepublic/privatefinancingtools,withoptionsrangingfromregionalin-frastructurebankstolocalcommunitylendingandequityfunds.
Be technologically relevant:Socialcommu-nications,inconnectionwithbothplace-basedandbusinessapplications,willcontinuetogrowwiththeproliferationofmobiletechnologiesandtheinfluxofMillennialsintotheworkforce.Downtownsneedtomakesurethattheyaretechnologicallyrelevant,bothinprovidingtheinfrastructurethatsupportsubiquitouscomputing,3Dprintingandinde-velopingthecreativeapplicationsthatkeepatechsavvypopulationengaged.
Adaptive reuse will be more affordable as construction costs rise:Asglobaldemandcontinuesforbuildingmaterials,thecostofnewconstructionwillincrease.Thereuseofexistingbuildingswillbecomerelativelymoreaffordable.Beyondtraditionalhistoricproperties,reuseopportunitieswillbecomeincreasinglyattractiveforpost-1950buildings,includinghighriseofficebuildingsthatwereconstructedduringthe1970sand1980s.
Incorporate sustainability as part of the downtown brand:Withcompacturbanen-vironmentsthatincludebusiness,education,health,cultureandlivingassets,downtownsofferinspirationandrelevancytoemerginggenerationsandtheeconomicmodelforasustainablefuture.
Stay on the leading edge of social equity issues:Withincomeinequalityagrowingnationalconcern,andurbanareasprosperingfromglobaltrends,therewillbeincreasedpressureondowntownstoplanforandparticipateinsocialequitysolutions.Bybring-ingprivatesectorperspectives,downtownmanagementorganizationsareinauniquepositiontoofferbalanceinthesocialequitydialoguethatwillincludehousing,wages,education,homelessnessandothertopics.Downtownscanbringleadership,researchcapabilitiesandpolicyoptionstothisemerg-ingtrend.
Women received 57%
of all bachelor’s degrees,
60% of all master’s
degrees and 51% of all
doctorate degrees.
As the global economy recovers from the
economic downturn,a dramatic rise inpersonal wealth iscreating a rapidly
growing international middle class.
“Walkable real estate”
can command value
premiums of 50%
to 100%.
Millenials, who today comprise 36% of the
workforce, will make up 50% of the workforce
by 2020.
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GLOBAL TRENDS AFFECTING DOWNTOWNS
GLOBAL TRENDS AFFECTING DOWNTOWNSTOP
4 PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
DEMOGRAPHICS
LIFESTYLES
GLOBAL COMPETITION
GLOBAL COMPETITION
Changing American Demographics
TherearenowfourgenerationsshapingAmeri-cancities,includingBabyBoomers(bornfrom1946to1964),GenerationX(1961to1984),Millennials(1977to2003)andGenZ(1996topresent).Eachgenerationhasbeeninfluencedbyhistoricalevents,technologyandotherenvi-ronmentalfactors.
•America’s76millionBabyBoomersarebettereducated,healthierandwealthierthanallprevi-ousgenerations.Giventheirsheernumbers,theyhavecreatedanunprecedentedboominAmericanproductionandconsumption.Nowtheyareenteringtheirretirementyears,andwhiletheyaremorephysicallyactivethanpriorgenerations,theywillcreateenormousdemandsonthehealthcaresystem.Recentero-sioninhomeequityandretirementfundvalueshavereversedpastmobilitytrendsforBabyBoomers,andnowmoreareexpectedtoretirelaterandto“ageinplace.”
•The53millionindividualsofGenerationX,onceknownasthe“slackergeneration”fortheircynicismandbitternesstowardBabyBoomers,arematuringwiththemajorityofthemnowmarriedwithchildren.GenerationXhouse-holdshavethemostpost-recessiondisposableincomeandnowcomprisethelargestgroupofrecenthomebuyers.GenerationXisapproach-ingitsprimetimewithopportunitiestomoveintoleadershipanddecision-makingpositionsasBabyBoomersstarttoretire.EmploymentprospectsaregoodforGenX’ers,giventhatthisgenera-tionistwo-thirdsthesizeoftheBoomers.
•America’s77millionMil-lennials,brimmingwithoptimismandastrongsenseofsocialactivism,arenow
aimingtobuildcareers.Connectedtotechnol-ogyfromthecrib,Millennialsaretruemulti-taskersanddriversoftechnologicalinnovationsthatincludesocialcommunicationsandsmartphones.Millennialsareusedtoawidevarietyofchoicesandtheabilitytopersonalizeandcus-tomize,notonlyconsumergoodsbutideasaswell.MillennialsarethemostculturallydiversegenerationandareafactorinincreasingracialdiversityandacceptanceinAmericancities.Fiftyeightofthelargest100Americancitiesarenowmajorityminority,comparedto43in2000.
•TheGenZ’seldestarenowenteringcollege,andwhereMillennialsareoptimistic,GenZaremorerealistic.They’vegrownupinapost9/11world,theGreatRecessionandcontinuousreportsofschoolviolence.Theseeventsmakethemmorecautious,howevertheyareinspiredtoimprovetheworld.GenZisusheringinthemostdramaticdemographicshiftinAmericanhistory;thedisplacementofwhitesasthemajorityracialgroupresultingintheshifttoasocietywithoutaclearmajoritygroup.By2018,childrenunder18willbemajority-minorityandtherewillbenoracialmajorityintheU.S.by2042.
OthernotabledemographicshiftsfindHis-panicsemergingasthelargestethnicgroupinAmericancities(26%ofurbandwellersareHispanicvs.22%forAfricanAmericans).
Education, Talent & Jobs
Theconnectionbetweeneducation,talentandjobsemergedinthelasteditionofP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport.Whilethereareplentyofavailableworkersinthepost-recessionecono-my,employersarehavingtroublefillingcertaintypesofjobsduetowideningskillsgaps.Soughtafteremployeesarebecominghardertofind;thelaborpoolisshrinkingbecauseex-periencedBabyBoomersarebeginningtoretireandtherateofimmigrationhasslowed.Twentymillionjobswillbecreatedthrough2020,creat-
ingmorejobsthanthereareskilledworkerstofillthem.
Acompetitiveadvantageisalreadyplacedon“thetalentdividend,”ortheconcentrationofhighlyskilledemployeesincit-ies.Citiesthatcultivateandareabletofillmid-andhigh-wage
jobsareinthebestpositiontoeconomicallyflourish.Increasingly,younghighlyeducatedadultsarechoosingtomoveintocities.Since2000,inmorethantwo-thirdsofthenation’slargestcities,theyoungcollege-educatedpopulationgrewtwiceasfastwithinthreemilesoftheurbancoreasintherestofthemetropoli-tanarea.Companieswillbeunderincreasedpressuretoconsideroperatingincitycentersasthelimitedsupplyofthistalentnichebecomesmoreurbanized.Additionally,Millennials,whotodaycomprise36%oftheworkforce,willmakeup50%oftheworkforceby2020.
Communitiesthatarehometolargeeduca-tionalinstitutionswillenjoyeconomicadvan-tages.Duringtherecession,foreclosureandunemploymentratesweregenerallylowerincollegetowns.Educationalinstitutescanalsohelpbridgetheskillsgapinthecitiesinwhichtheyarelocated.
Immigration,oneofourtoptrendsfromP.U.M.A.’soriginalGlobalTrendsReport,willcon-tinuetobeafactorinbuildingahighlyskilledlaborforce.Collegeeducatedimmigrantsnowoutnumberthosewithoutahighschooldiplomain44ofthe100largestmetropolitanareas.In2005,foreign-bornindividualsrepre-sentedoneineightAmericans.Thatnumberisanticipatedtoincreasetooneinfiveby2050.
The Influence of Women
SincethefirsteditionofGlobalTrends,theinflu-enceofwomenonshapingcitiesanddown-townshascontinuedtogrow.Theyear2009wasalandmark,markingthefirsttimethatmorewomenwereemployedintheU.S.laborforcethanmen.Inthefollowingyear,two-thirdsoffamilyhouseholdshadwomenwhowereeitherbreadwinnersorco-breadwinners.
Womenareanticipatedtodominateprofes-sionaloccupationsinthefutureandhavebeenoutpacingmenineducationalattainmentsincethe1970s.In2011,womenreceived57%ofallbachelor’sdegrees,60%ofallmaster’sdegreesand51%ofalldoctoratedegrees.Tofortifytheirpositionashubsforcommerce,down-townsmustofferenvironmentsthatappealtoprofessionalwomen.Vibrantmixed-useenvi-ronmentscanfulfilldiverseneedsthatincludeshopping,socializing,grooming,childrearingandotherhouseholdactivities.
Women received 57%
of all bachelor’s degrees,
60% of all master’s
degrees and 51% of all
doctorate degrees.
As the global economy recovers from the
economic downturn,a dramatic rise inpersonal wealth iscreating a rapidly
growing international middle class.
“Walkable real estate”
can command value
premiums of 50%
to 100%.
Millenials, who today comprise 36% of the
workforce, will make up 50% of the workforce
by 2020.
Women received 57%
of all bachelor’s degrees,
60% of all master’s
degrees and 51% of all
doctorate degrees.
As the global economy recovers from the
economic downturn,a dramatic rise inpersonal wealth iscreating a rapidly
growing international middle class.
“Walkable real estate”
can command value
premiums of 50%
to 100%.
Millenials, who today comprise 36% of the
workforce, will make up 50% of the workforce
by 2020.
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GLOBAL TRENDS AFFECTING DOWNTOWNS
GLOBAL TRENDS AFFECTING DOWNTOWNSTOP
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10PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES 5
DEMOGRAPHICS
LIFESTYLES
GLOBAL COMPETITION
GLOBAL COMPETITION
SingleBoomerwomenareemergingasaneconomicpower,astheyoutlivetheirspousesorhaveseparatedfromthem.Manyarefavoringcohousingorhousesharing,wheretwoormoresinglesmoveintogetherashouse-mates.WithhomeownershipbeingveryimportanttoBoomerwomen,theyarethesecondlargestsegmentofhomebuyersintheU.S.andaccountfor20%ofhomepurchases.
Despitethegrowingimportanceoffemalesintheworkplace,theyhavenotyetachievedcom-parablesignificanceinthecorporate,politicalanddesign-relatedprofessionsthatinfluencetheshapeofcities.Thepercentageoffemalemayorsofcitieswithover30,000peopleis17%,only18%oflawmakersinCongressarewomenandsixstateshavefemalegovernors.Inthedesignprofessions,lessthan15%ofarchitectsand37%ofplannersarefemale.However,theseimbalancesaresubjecttochangeas45%ofmasterdegreesand46%ofdoctoratedegreesinarchitecturalandplanningserviceswerereceivedbywomenin2012.
Thenationalandinternationalpoliticalland-scapeisexpectedtochangeasmorefemalesaredrawntoelectedoffice.Femalepoliticalprioritiesdifferfromthoseofmenwithanemphasisoneconomicdevelopment,environ-mentalissuesandhealthcare.
Changing Consumer Behaviors TheGreatRecessionhasendedandwhilecon-sumerexpenditureshavereachedpre-recessionlevels,consumerconfidenceremainslow.The
pre-recessioneraofimpulse-drivenconspicuouscon-sumptionappearstobeover,replacedbymorepracticalanddeliberatespending.Thefactorsdeterminingvaluenowincludequality,functionalityandconvenience,environmen-talandsocialconsiderations.
Boomersarefacingtheprospectofworkinglongerandretiringwithsmallernesteggsthantheyexpectedpre-recession.ThoseinGenerationXareintheprocessofrebuildingtheirwealthwhileatthesametimesupportinghouseholds.Withtheirentranceintotheworkforceandtheirdesiretoliveinanurbansetting,Millennialswillbethedrivingforcebehindconsumerspendingandthesharingofgoodsandservicesindowntowns.
Technologyischangingtheshoppingexperi-enceandwillcontinuetodosoasbusinessesadaptnewtechnologiestomakeshoppingmoreconvenient.Mobilepaymentapplications,locationbasedcoupons,andin-storevirtualdressingroomsarecreatinganimprovedexpe-rienceforthecustomer.Whileonlinesalesareincreasing,theystillaccountforasmallportionoftotalretailsales.In2013,onlinesalesonlyaccountedfor6%andareexpectedtoaccountfor10%by2017.
Thegrowthofthe“sharingeconomy,”wheresocialnetworksallowindividualstoshare,rentorreselltheirbelongings,isflourishinginhighdensityurbanareas.Sharingapplicationsnowincludecars,workplaces,hotellodgingandhouseholdtoolsandappliances,andareexpectedtogrowovertime.
Asdowntownpopulationsincrease,thedemandforawidevarietyofretailhasgrown.Thishasinfluencedbig-boxretailcompaniestore-examinetheirstoreformats.Groceryretailersarestartingtoadaptasmoreconsumers(espe-ciallyMillennials)livingindowntownsdemandmoreorganicandnaturalfoods.
Shifts in Transportation & Mobility
P.U.M.A.’sfirstGlobalTrendsReportfocusedontrafficcongestionandthevalueoftime.Sinceoursecondreportin2011,we’veseensignifi-cantchangesintransportationpreferences.Congestionremainsasignificantfactoron
Americanhighwaysastheaveragecommuterinthe100largestcitieslosesanaverageof39hoursperyearsittingintrafficgoingnowhere,comparedto14hoursin1982.Congestionhasstabilizedinthepastseveralyearsandvehiclemilestraveledhasforthefirsttimedecreasedbetween5%and9%from2006to2011,afactoroftherecession,telecommuting,agingBoom-ersandemergingtrendsinmobility.
Vehicleexpenseanddemographicchangesareshiftingbe-haviorsawayfromautos.Carandbikesharingprogramshavebeenadoptedinmanycitiesacrosstheglobe.Today,500citiesin49countrieshostmodernbikeshareprograms,thefastestgrowthofanymodeoftransportinthehistoryoftheplanet.Valuepremiumsarebeingplacedonurbanlivingenvironmentswhereresidentscanwalk,bikeortakemass-transittowork,shoppingandrecreation.“Walkablerealestate”cancommandvaluepremiumsof50%to100%.Increasingly,citiesareusingtheir“walkscores”asameasureofeconomiccompetitiveness.
America’stwolargestdemographicgroups–BabyBoomersandMillennials–areprimarilyresponsibleforchangingtransportationhabits.Boomersaresimplifyinganddownsizinghouse-holds,oftenmovingtowalkableurbanareas.Millennials,manyofwhomgrewupbeingtaxiedinthebackseatoftheirparent’scar,areseekingwalkableandsocialenvironments.Theshareofautomobilemilesdrivenbypersonsintheir20shasdroppedprecipitouslyoverthepast15years:thisagegroupaccountsfornearly21%ofallautomobilemilesdrivenin1995,butlessthan14%by2009.
Local,stateandfederaltransportationprioritiesarechangingtofavorbikelanes,morewalkablecommunities,lightrail,highspeedtrains,street-carsandthelike.In2012,130communitiesad-opted“CompleteStreets”policiesthatencour-agemodesbeyondcars,bringingthenationaltotaltonearly500.Publictransitcontinuestobeaneconomicbuildingblockasmorethan80citiesintheU.S.andCanadaareexploringnewstreetcarand/orrailsystems.
Health & Wellness
PrioreditionsofP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReportfocusedonthegrowingimbalancebetweenthedemandforandsupplyofAmericanhealthcare.Asthenumberofpeopleovertheageof65isexpectedtogrowto70millionby2030,greaterdemandwillbeplacedonthehealthcareprofession(personsage65andovergeneratethreetimesmoredoctorvisitsthanyoungerpersons).WithhalfofU.S.doctorsovertheageof50,theirpendingretirementcoupledwithdecliningenrollmentinhealthcareeducationisexpectedtocreateashort-ageofhealthcareprofessionals.TheAfford-ableHealthCareActandexpansionofMedic-aidisacceleratingthisimbalance,addinganestimated32millionpersonstoinsurancerollsby2020.
Thehealthcareindustrywillcontinuetoexperiencesignificantgrowthandhaveanincreasedeconomicimpactoncities.Employ-mentopportunitiesandupgradedinfrastruc-turewillstrengthentheroleofhealthcareinstitutionsaseconomicanchorsandcivicleaders.
Theconnectionbetweenhealthandthebuiltenvironmentisanemergingtrend,propelledbyanationalawarenesstowardtheriseofchronicconditionssuchasobesity.TherealestatemarketiscatchingontothepreferencesofMillennialsandBabyBoomersforhealthierlifestyles,demonstratedbytheUrbanLandInstitute’sglobalfocusonbuildinghealthyplaces.Citiesarerespondingwithpoliciesandincentivestoshapewalkableandbikeablecommunities,eradicatefooddesertsandimproveaccesstohealthyfood.
Creatingopportunitiesforcities,thelocavoremovementcontinuestogrow,andstudiesfindthattheoverwhelmingmajorityofurbandwellerswillpayapremiumforlocallygrownfood.Theconceptofurbanagricultureisbeingembraced,communitygardensareincreas-inglypopularandagriculturalconversionisaviableoptioninshrinkingcitiesandsuburbs.
Rise of Regionalism
WhenwefirstpublishedP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport,theshareofthenationaldebtforeachAmericanwas$29,000.Sevenyearslater,thatnumberisnearing$55,000andgrowing.AndwhilepolicymakersarefocusedoncorrallingAmerica’sdebtburden,thede-mographicimbalancebetweenretiringBabyBoomersandworkingGenXersandMillenni-alsmakesthisadauntingtask.MedicareandMedicaidobligationscontinuetogrowasthe
largestshareofthefederalbudget.TosupportSocialSecurity,thesecondlargestshareofthefederalbudget,therewere16workersforeachpensionrecipientin1950,andby2030,therewillbeonlytwoworkersforeachrecipient.
Acknowledgingthedebtburdenanditsroleincon-strictingtheabilityofthefederalgovernmenttoinvestininfrastructure,educationandinnovation,thistrendwasrenamed“TheAgeofAusterity”inthe2011editionofP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport.Today,adysfunctionalandpolarizedpoliticalclimateinWashingtonaddsthedimensionofparalysis,prolonginganominoustrendforlimitedfederalresponse.
Unlikethefederalgovernment,moststatesandlocalgovernmentsmustoperatewithbalancedbudgets.Citiesandcountiesarepartneringwithprivatecompanies,universi-ties,hospitals,unions,andotherinstitutionsinordertomakethingshappen.Anemergingtrendofregionalcollaborationandinvest-mentmarksahistoricalshiftintakingonresponsibilitiesoncereservedforhigherlevelsofgovernment.Forexample,citieslikeLosAngeles,DenverandChicagoarelargelyself-financingtheirregionaltransitsystemsinsteadofwaitingforfederalfunds.Avarietyoftoolsarebeingmobilizedtofinancelocalandregionalinvestmentsininfrastructure,educationandinnovation.Regionalbondandtaxinitiatives,infrastructurebanksandpublic/privatepartnershipsarereshapinghowpublicworksareconstructed.
Shift in Global Wealth
InprioreditionsofP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport,welookedatconsumptionpatternsinChina,Indiaandotheremergingecono-miesaroundtheworldandtheirimpactonAmericancities.Astheglobaleconomy
recoversfromtheeconomicdownturn,adramaticriseinpersonalwealthiscreatingarapidlygrowinginternationalmiddleclass.Inaworldofin-terconnectedparts,America’sabilitytochartitsowndes-tinycontinuestodiminish.
Therecessionacceleratedtherelativegrowthofemergingeconomies(ledbyChina,
IndiaandBrazil)whilecreatingaprolongedperiodofeconomicstagnationinadvancedeconomies(U.S.,EuropeandJapan).ChinaeclipsedJapanastheworld’ssecondlargesteconomy,andasitsmiddleclassgrows,indi-vidualpurchasingincreasesanditspopula-tioncontinuestourbanize.China’srelativeconsumptionofglobalcommoditiescontinuestoincrease(59%ofglobalconcretein2011vs.47%in2005,andmorethan24%ofglobalcarsalesin2011vs.lessthan1%in2000).
It’snotjustChinathatisbecomingwealthier.RapidlyrisingconsumptionpatternsarealsoevidentinBrazil,Mexico,Indonesia,SouthKo-rea,TurkeyandRussiaaswellasotheremerg-ingeconomies.20%oftheworld’speopleinthehighestincomecountriesaccountfor86%oftotalglobalprivateconsumption-thepoorest20%onlyrepresent1.3%.Thesizeofthe“globalmiddleclass”willincreasefrom1.8billionin2009to3.2billionby2020and4.9billionby2030.AmajorityofthisgrowthwillbecenteredonAsia,with66%oftheglobalmiddleclasslivingonthatcontinentby2030.
Emergingeconomiesarelargelyunencum-beredbydebtandmostareledbystrongcentralgovernmentsthatwillinvestheavilyininfrastructure,educationandinnovation.Continuedglobalgrowthwillalsoplaceupwardpressureonthepricesofcommoditiesandresources,makinglandusepatternsthatpromotesprawlandvehicleuseincreasinglyexpensive.
Continued Advances in Technology
Ascitedinthe2011editionofGlobalTrends,theexpansionandadvancementofmobiletechnologiescontinuestohaveprofoundim-plicationsforcities.Theprojectednumberofmobileconnections(7.4billion)isexpectedtobemorethantheprojectedglobalpopulation(7.2billion)by2015.
Theubiquityofmobiledeviceshasresultedinanemergenceofappsforreal-time,up-to-dateinformation.Forexample,mobileappsallowdriverstochangetheirroutesinreal
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6 PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
Women received 57%
of all bachelor’s degrees,
60% of all master’s
degrees and 51% of all
doctorate degrees.
As the global economy recovers from the
economic downturn,a dramatic rise inpersonal wealth iscreating a rapidly
growing international middle class.
“Walkable real estate”
can command value
premiums of 50%
to 100%.
Millenials, who today comprise 36% of the
workforce, will make up 50% of the workforce
by 2020.
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timeandtoshowcurrentparkingavailabilitythroughoutcities.
MunicipalitiesarecapitalizingonmobileappsandtheInternettoprovidetransparencyinpublicprocessesandbetterengagewithcitizens.“Digitalmeetinghalls”arelikelytobeusedincreasinglyasGenerationXandMillen-nialsbecomemoreinvolvedinplanningandothercivicpursuits.
Mobiledevicesarecontinuingtodiminishtheimportanceofstaticofficelocations,allow-ingforconnectionsanywhereanytime.Officespaceconfigurationsarechanging,withre-ducedspaceneededtoconductbusiness,plusgreaterutilizationofspacebeyondtraditionaleight-hourworkdays.Toattractyoungskilledemployees,officedesignwillincreasinglycombinebusinessandsocialfunctions–agrowthofmixed-useprincipleswithinbuild-ingsaswellasoutsideofthem.Thegrowingpopularityof“co-working”spacesarereflectiveofthesetrends.
Techgiantsareexperimentingwithaugment-edrealityproducts,providingcomputer-gen-eratedsensoryinputsuchassound,video,andGPStoenhanceone’sownenvironment.Smarttechnologieswillsupplementmobiledevices,cars,buildings,andotherelementsofthebuiltenvironmenttoenhancethequalityoflifeincities.Withreal-timedata-intensivesmarttechnologies,apps,cloudstorage,andsharing,citiesareunderpressuretomakehigh-speedInternetaccessfasterandfreetothepublic,similartoover-the-airtelevision.
Advancesin3Dprintingtechnologymayradi-callychangemanufacturingprocesses,addinganotheradvantagetoclustersofinnovationincities.Traditionalmanufacturingreliedontestingofprototypesandthecreationofmas-siveindustrialinfrastructureforproduction.3Dprintingallowsforcustomizationinbothprototypesandproduction,drasticallycuttingmanufacturingcostsandtiming.
Social Equity – The Neglected Pillar of Sustainability
SincethefirsteditionofP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport,themajorityoftheplanetnowlivesincities,asopposedtoruralareas.Citiestodayhouse3.5billionpeopleandanaddi-tional3billionwillurbanizeby2050,resultinginmorethantwo-thirdsoftheworldpopula-tionlivingincities.Resourceconsumptionatcurrentlevelscouldresultinannualdemandsof200%oftheEarth’soverallbio-capacity,itsabilitytomeethumanneedswithbiologicallyproductivelandsandoceans,by2050.
Citiesprovideabeaconofhopeforencourag-ingmoresustainablepatternsofdevelopment.Currently,America’s100largestmetropolitanareasaccountfor75%ofthenation’seconom-icoutputwith56%ofthecountry’scarbonemissions.Americancitiesareinnovatorsinsustainabilitypolicies,encouragingLEEDand“NetZero”certifiedbuildingsandinnovationingreentechnologies.
Whilethereisbroadunderstandingoftheeco-nomicandenvironmentalaspectsofsustain-ability,itsthirdpillar,socialequity,islargelyneglected.Asglobaltrendshavebenefitedcitiesinrecentyears,wehaveseenamigra-tionoflargelyupperincomeprofessionalstoliveindowntowns.Atthesametime,incomeinequalityintheUnitedStatesisatitsmostex-tremesince1928.Today,thetop1%ofAmeri-canhouseholdsearn22.5%ofpre-taxwealth,whilethelower90%ofAmericanhouseholdsearnlessthan50%ofpre-taxwealthforthefirsttimeever.
Economistsdebatewhetherincomeinequalityimpedesoveralleconomicgrowth,butitcanposechallengesforcities.Manyurbanareasareonthevergeofbecomingenclavesoftherich,unabletohouseorsustainservicework-ersormiddleincomeprofessionalssuchasteachersandnurses.YoungskilledMillennials,therawmaterialneededtogrowaprofession-aldowntownworkforce,arefindingitincreas-inglydifficulttoaffordurbanlifestyles.
Cities,oncethegatewayforthe“AmericanDream”ofupwardmobility,mayhavedifficultyindeliveringthishopeinthefuture.Aland-mark2013studyfoundthatincomemobilityismoreproblematicinsprawlingeconomi-callysegregatedcitiesthaninhigh-densityurbanareaswithmixedincomes.Downtownsmayneedtobemoreproactiveinpromotingaffordablehousing,betterwagesandqualityschools,orexpectarisingtideofcivicactivismtodemandthem.
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ResearchforP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport2014wasundertakenby22graduatestudentsinthefall2013economicdevelopmentsys-temsclassattheUniversityofColoradoDenverCollegeofArchitectureandPlanning,MasterofUrbanandRegionalPlanning(MURP)pro-gram.TheMURPprogramcountsover1,300alumniandisthelargestplanningprogramintheRockyMountainregion.LocatedintheheartofDowntownDenver,weuseColoradoasourclassroomandemphasizeexperiential,hands-on,real-worldlearning.Ourteaching,researchandcommunityengagementcenteronthreeissuesattheforefrontofplanningpractice:HealthyCommunities,UrbanRevital-ization,andRegionalSustainability.
Fromlefttoright:BradSegal,co-lecturer,ElizabethFuselier,WatkinsFulk-Gray,RyannAnderson,HamadBasaeed,MatthewDuBose,BradleyBoland,DylanGrabowski,PrestonNakayama,TimCamarillo,EugeneHoward,ClaytonCross,JoseJuarez,LisaSteiner,AdamRolstad,BrandonShaver,RileyLaMie,MatthewChristoff,CoryHoerner,CraigFisher,ElizabethGwinn,KentWimbush,RobertNg,AnnaJones,co-lecturer
Research was verified, supplemented and edited by P.U.M.A.’s Rena Leddy and Erin Laetz. P.U.M.A.’s Brad Segal finalized the report.Supporting research for P.U.M.A.’s Global Trends Report 2014 and information on public presentations are available by contacting us at www.pumaworldhq.com
Researchers for Global Trends
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES 7
©ProgressiveUrbanManagementAssociates2014
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n Economic Development Strategies n Strategic Planningn Creating Healthy Communitiesn Community Engagementn Forming, Expanding Or Renewing Business Improvement Districtsn Community Development Tools
Brad Segal, [email protected]
Anna Jones, Vice [email protected]
Erica Heller, Senior [email protected]
Erin Laetz, [email protected]
Rena Masten Leddy, Vice [email protected]
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Progressive Urban Management Associates (P.U.M.A.) is a consulting firm providing management, marketing and financial services to advance downtown and community development. The firm has provided services to more than 200 clients in 35 states, the District of Columbia, Canada, Jamaica and the Bahamas. Clients include downtown management organizations, local governments, community development corporations and private firms.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON P.U.M.A., VISIT WWW.PUMAWORLDHQ.COM
The Master of Urban and Regional Planning (MURP) program at the University of Colorado Denver counts over 1300 alumni and is the largest planning program in the Rocky Mountain region. Located in the heart of Downtown Denver, we use Colorado as our classroom and emphasize experiential, hands-on, real-world learning. Our teaching, research and community engagement center on three issues at the forefront of planning practice: Healthy Communities, Urban Revitalization, and Regional Sustainability.
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