Three effective models for RISA Research
Mission:Improve water-related decision-making and management in the Interior West by increasing the scope, quality, availability and relevance of climate products and knowledge.
Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin
2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research
3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction
Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?
• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment
Vulnerability Assessment
SPRAT Team
Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?
• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment
Stresses:
Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)
Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use
Vulnerability Assessment
SPRAT Team
Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?
• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment
Stresses:
Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)
Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use
Responses:
New storage
Conjunctive Use
Increased Reuse
Agricultural Efficiency
Conservation
Vulnerability Assessment
SPRAT Team
Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?
• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment
Stresses:
Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)
Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use
Responses:
New storage
Conjunctive Use
Increased Reuse
Agricultural Efficiency
Conservation
Vulnerability Assessment
Goal: Improve regional capabilities toadapt to climate-related impacts.
SPRAT Team
• Provides a regional representation of water issues• Present water allocation system• Background of climate variation• Overlay scenarios of population and land use• Explore sensitivities from perspectives of MI,
agriculture, aquatic environment• Assess effectiveness of management options for
reducing sensitivity
SPRAT…
• Baseline (2000)• Future (2040)
– Increase population (~50%)– Decrease irrigated acreage (~10%)– Shift water rights consistent with changes
in population and land use• Run SPRAT with 80-year hydroclimate
trace
Modeling Scenarios
SPRAT Results: Central Region
M&I80%
Ag20%
SPRAT Team
Sensitivity metric—shortage index
(Supply – Demand)DemandRisk of shortage =
Supplies = reservoir contents in October= water year inflows= water year return flows
Demands = potential water use
(<0 = water shortage)(=1 = one-year surplus)
SPRAT Results: Central Region
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992
(Sup
ply-
Dem
and)
/ D
eman
d
20002040
SPRAT Team
• No Action (2040 scenario)• New Storage• Conjunctive Use• Water Reuse• Increased Agricultural Efficiency• Municipal Conservation
Response to climate-related stresses
New storage
New storage
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992
(Sup
ply-
Dem
and)
/ Dem
and
2040New StorageCentral Region
SPRAT Team
Decision-relevant questions• Which sectors and regions are most sensitive
to the combined impacts of climate variability and regional growth? How sensitive?
• What is the relative importance of climate-induced vulnerability when compared to other stresses?
• Which adaptations (or mix of adaptations) provide the greatest protection (i.e., reduce vulnerability).
• What is the basis for evaluating trade-offs when a coping strategy benefits one region, but has detrimental effects on another region?
Emerging and Potential Partnerships
• The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG)
• EPA• City of Westminster• Denver Metro Wastewater Reclamation
District• Plum Creek Wastewater Authority• Others
• Development of a core office to build partnerships that are based, among other things, SPRAT output.
Summary: SPRAT• Integration
– Integration occurred early—the research question of regional sustainability required input from multiple disciplines
• Linkages with decision-makers– Initial contact with decision-makers to identify
regional issues– Did not engage decision-makers to identify decision-
relevant research questions• Decision-makers have diverse and sometimes competing
interests, and we could not incorporate all of their concerns in a cost effective way
• By restricting attention to a subset of decision-makers we may bias our analysis and be overly constrained by their political agenda
– We relied on our collective knowledge of regional issues to develop the integrated methodology.
Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin
2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research
3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
The endangered species problem…
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ma rch April Ma y J une J uly Augus t Se p tembe r
1917-491950-pre s e nt
c) Yampa River at Maybell
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Ma rch April Ma y J une J uly Augus t S e p tembe r
1900-491950-pre s e nt
c ) Colorado River at Glenwood Springs
augment the natural peak with releases from reservoirs to benefit endangered fishJohn Pitlick
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders
Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
Andrea Ray
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders
Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
Prospecting for researchthat meets user needs
Andrea Ray
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
Begin developingexperimental methodsfor forecasting runoff
Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders
Continue developingexperimental methods
and publish results
Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
Animas River Basin (Southwest Colorado)DOWNSCALED MRF OUTPUT
ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION
Martyn Clark and Lauren Hay
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
Begin developingexperimental methodsfor forecasting runoff
Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders
Continue developingexperimental methods
and publish results
Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
Link with federal R&D labsto improve potential transfer
to operational products
Pilot implementation of experimental streamflowforecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado
River basin in spring 2003
Applied project: Real time experimental streamflow forecast
• Funding from CWCB• Entrained non-WWA work at CDC and USGS• Confluence of user study and several research
projects:– CDC’s MRF “reforecast,” downscaled to basin scale by WWA– Downscaled forecasts used in CBRFC hydrologic models,
provided to CBRFC since January 2003– CBRFC implementing experimental forecasts, will provide
both operational and experimental forecasts on their webpage this spring
• Reservoir manager partners agree to consider and evaluate the product; briefing planned March 03
• Document and assess the process of how this information is used in their decision process
Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to
climate variability
Begin developingexperimental methodsfor forecasting runoff
Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders
Continue developingexperimental methods
and present results
Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems
Link with federal R&D labsto improve potential transfer
to operational products
Pilot implementation of experimental streamflowforecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado
River basin in spring 2003
Document and assess how knowledge is usedis used in reservoir operators’ decision process
as well as assess improvement of forecast
Photo: Brad Udall
Summary: User Studies and Applied Research
• Linkages with decision-makers:– Occurred early, and has been constant throughout
the project• Link to operational partners occurred fairly early
to improve potential to transfer to operational products– Includes NWS Office of Hydrologic Development
to develop tools that may ultimately be used in the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
• Integration– Approach anticipated that other research projects
would be integrated as user needs were identified and refined
• Next steps: Continue prospecting for other potentially useful products and research
Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin
2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research
3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction
Regional climate monitoring and prediction
• Based on critical needs from decision-makers, develop a suite of hydroclimate monitoring and prediction products that specifically address user needs.
Photo: Brad Udall
Partnership with theColorado Water Availability
(Drought) Task Force • Regional
climate monitoring
Klaus Wolter
How dry was 2002?
• Regional climate monitoring
Klaus WolterYEAR
Per
cent
of
norm
al [
71-0
0]
Arkansas Valley (CD6),1- and 3yr departures from 1971-2000 (SEP-AUG)
CD 6.1yr%CD 6.3yr%
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
How dry was 2002?
• Regional climate monitoring
Klaus WolterYEAR
Per
cent
of
norm
al [
71-0
0]
San Juans, 1- and 3yr departures from 1971-2000 (SEP-AUG)
CD 3.12CD 3.3660
80
100
120
140
160
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
• Paleo-hydro reconstructions of streamflow
• Several years in the paleo record are as dry as 2002
Connie Woodhouse
Partnership with theColorado Water Availability
(Drought) Task Force • Experimental
climate prediction
• Experimental forecast for April-June 2003
Klaus Wolter
Tailored Operational MRF for the Yampa River region
Exceedance probability
P(T>5oC)
Bias and skill for the past 30-days
Ensemble spread
http
://w
ww
.cdc
.noa
a.go
v/en
sem
ble/
Shaleen Jain
Summary: Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction
• Linkages with decision-makers:– Occurred early, and has been constant
throughout the project
• Integration– Integration with experts in other
disciplines in the Colorado Water Availability (Drought) task Force.
Research Process…
Initial Interaction
Integration andDevelopment
AdvancedInteraction
ProductDevelopment
Evaluation andTechnology Transfer
(1)
2
4
1
3
4
2
1
3
4
2
SPRAT ReservoirManagement
ExperimentalMonitoring
3
5
Effectiveness = use and influence
NOAACWCBOutside funding
State Climatologist
CBRFCHydrosphereUse in operational setting
NOAA--Climate Services
NWS/OHDCBRFC
EPAPartnerships with federal R&D agencies
CLIMASNIFC
CDCUSGS
HydrosphereCoordination of outside research endeavors
Many regional stakeholders, in the CWATF
Reservoir operatorsCWCB
DRCOGWestminsterEPA
Outside interest by stakeholders
Monitoring and Prediction
Peak FlowSPRAT
Questions?