Three effective models for RISA Researchsciencepolicy.colorado.edu/.../resource-573- · (=1 = one-year surplus) SPRAT Results: Central Region 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1922 1932 1942

Three effective models for RISA Research

Mission:Improve water-related decision-making and management in the Interior West by increasing the scope, quality, availability and relevance of climate products and knowledge.

Three research models:1. Assessment of vulnerability to climate-related stresses in the South Platte River basin

2. Reservoir Management: User studies and applied research

3. Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction

Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?

• Municipal and Industrial• Agriculture• Environment

Vulnerability Assessment

SPRAT Team



Stresses:

Climate Variability andChange (e.g., drought)

Regional growth• Increased population• Changes in land use


SPRAT Team



Stresses:



Responses:

New storage

Conjunctive Use

Increased Reuse

Agricultural Efficiency

Conservation


SPRAT Team



Stresses:



Responses:

New storage

Conjunctive Use

Increased Reuse

Agricultural Efficiency

Conservation


Goal: Improve regional capabilities toadapt to climate-related impacts.

SPRAT Team

• Provides a regional representation of water issues• Present water allocation system• Background of climate variation• Overlay scenarios of population and land use• Explore sensitivities from perspectives of MI,

agriculture, aquatic environment• Assess effectiveness of management options for

reducing sensitivity

SPRAT…

• Baseline (2000)• Future (2040)

– Increase population (~50%)– Decrease irrigated acreage (~10%)– Shift water rights consistent with changes

in population and land use• Run SPRAT with 80-year hydroclimate

trace

Modeling Scenarios

SPRAT Results: Central Region

M&I80%

Ag20%

SPRAT Team

Sensitivity metric—shortage index

(Supply – Demand)DemandRisk of shortage =

Supplies = reservoir contents in October= water year inflows= water year return flows

Demands = potential water use

(<0 = water shortage)(=1 = one-year surplus)

SPRAT Results: Central Region

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992

(Sup

ply-

Dem

and)

/ D

eman

d

20002040

SPRAT Team

• No Action (2040 scenario)• New Storage• Conjunctive Use• Water Reuse• Increased Agricultural Efficiency• Municipal Conservation

Response to climate-related stresses

New storage

New storage

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992

(Sup

ply-

Dem

and)

/ Dem

and

2040New StorageCentral Region

SPRAT Team

Decision-relevant questions• Which sectors and regions are most sensitive

to the combined impacts of climate variability and regional growth? How sensitive?

• What is the relative importance of climate-induced vulnerability when compared to other stresses?

• Which adaptations (or mix of adaptations) provide the greatest protection (i.e., reduce vulnerability).

• What is the basis for evaluating trade-offs when a coping strategy benefits one region, but has detrimental effects on another region?

Emerging and Potential Partnerships

• The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG)

• EPA• City of Westminster• Denver Metro Wastewater Reclamation

District• Plum Creek Wastewater Authority• Others

• Development of a core office to build partnerships that are based, among other things, SPRAT output.

Summary: SPRAT• Integration

– Integration occurred early—the research question of regional sustainability required input from multiple disciplines

• Linkages with decision-makers– Initial contact with decision-makers to identify

regional issues– Did not engage decision-makers to identify decision-

relevant research questions• Decision-makers have diverse and sometimes competing

interests, and we could not incorporate all of their concerns in a cost effective way

• By restricting attention to a subset of decision-makers we may bias our analysis and be overly constrained by their political agenda

– We relied on our collective knowledge of regional issues to develop the integrated methodology.




Identify societally-relevantproblem sensitive to

climate variability

The endangered species problem…

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ma rch April Ma y J une J uly Augus t Se p tembe r

1917-491950-pre s e nt

c) Yampa River at Maybell

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Ma rch April Ma y J une J uly Augus t S e p tembe r

1900-491950-pre s e nt

c ) Colorado River at Glenwood Springs

augment the natural peak with releases from reservoirs to benefit endangered fishJohn Pitlick


climate variability

Identify decision-makersand their key stakeholders

Assess how potentiallypredictable aspects of climate interact with critical problems

Andrea Ray


climate variability



Prospecting for researchthat meets user needs

Andrea Ray


climate variability

Begin developingexperimental methodsfor forecasting runoff


Continue developingexperimental methods

and publish results


Animas River Basin (Southwest Colorado)DOWNSCALED MRF OUTPUT

ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION

Martyn Clark and Lauren Hay


climate variability




and publish results


Link with federal R&D labsto improve potential transfer

to operational products

Pilot implementation of experimental streamflowforecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado

River basin in spring 2003

Applied project: Real time experimental streamflow forecast

• Funding from CWCB• Entrained non-WWA work at CDC and USGS• Confluence of user study and several research

projects:– CDC’s MRF “reforecast,” downscaled to basin scale by WWA– Downscaled forecasts used in CBRFC hydrologic models,

provided to CBRFC since January 2003– CBRFC implementing experimental forecasts, will provide

both operational and experimental forecasts on their webpage this spring

• Reservoir manager partners agree to consider and evaluate the product; briefing planned March 03

• Document and assess the process of how this information is used in their decision process


climate variability




and present results


Link with federal R&D labsto improve potential transfer

to operational products

Pilot implementation of experimental streamflowforecasting methodology in the Upper Colorado

River basin in spring 2003

Document and assess how knowledge is usedis used in reservoir operators’ decision process

as well as assess improvement of forecast

Photo: Brad Udall

Summary: User Studies and Applied Research

• Linkages with decision-makers:– Occurred early, and has been constant throughout

the project• Link to operational partners occurred fairly early

to improve potential to transfer to operational products– Includes NWS Office of Hydrologic Development

to develop tools that may ultimately be used in the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

• Integration– Approach anticipated that other research projects

would be integrated as user needs were identified and refined

• Next steps: Continue prospecting for other potentially useful products and research




Regional climate monitoring and prediction

• Based on critical needs from decision-makers, develop a suite of hydroclimate monitoring and prediction products that specifically address user needs.

Photo: Brad Udall

Partnership with theColorado Water Availability

(Drought) Task Force • Regional

climate monitoring

Klaus Wolter

How dry was 2002?

• Regional climate monitoring

Klaus WolterYEAR

Per

cent

of

norm

al [

71-0

0]

Arkansas Valley (CD6),1- and 3yr departures from 1971-2000 (SEP-AUG)

CD 6.1yr%CD 6.3yr%

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

How dry was 2002?

• Regional climate monitoring

Klaus WolterYEAR

Per

cent

of

norm

al [

71-0

0]

San Juans, 1- and 3yr departures from 1971-2000 (SEP-AUG)

CD 3.12CD 3.3660

80

100

120

140

160

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

• Paleo-hydro reconstructions of streamflow

• Several years in the paleo record are as dry as 2002

Connie Woodhouse

Partnership with theColorado Water Availability

(Drought) Task Force • Experimental

climate prediction

• Experimental forecast for April-June 2003

Klaus Wolter

Tailored Operational MRF for the Yampa River region

Exceedance probability

P(T>5oC)

Bias and skill for the past 30-days

Ensemble spread

http

://w

ww

.cdc

.noa

a.go

v/en

sem

ble/

Shaleen Jain

Summary: Regional Climate Monitoring and Prediction

• Linkages with decision-makers:– Occurred early, and has been constant

throughout the project

• Integration– Integration with experts in other

disciplines in the Colorado Water Availability (Drought) task Force.

Research Process…

Initial Interaction

Integration andDevelopment

AdvancedInteraction

ProductDevelopment

Evaluation andTechnology Transfer

(1)

2

4

1

3

4

2

1

3

4

2

SPRAT ReservoirManagement

ExperimentalMonitoring

3

5

Effectiveness = use and influence

NOAACWCBOutside funding

State Climatologist

CBRFCHydrosphereUse in operational setting

NOAA--Climate Services

NWS/OHDCBRFC

EPAPartnerships with federal R&D agencies

CLIMASNIFC

CDCUSGS

HydrosphereCoordination of outside research endeavors

Many regional stakeholders, in the CWATF

Reservoir operatorsCWCB

DRCOGWestminsterEPA

Outside interest by stakeholders

Monitoring and Prediction

Peak FlowSPRAT

Questions?

Documents

Three effective models for RISA Researchsciencepolicy.colorado.edu/.../resource-573- · (=1 = one-year surplus) SPRAT Results: Central Region 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1922 1932 1942