The Atlanta Regional Commission’s “The Quarter” looks at some of the leading indicators of overall economic health from a non-economist’s view. It compares Atlanta to other metropolitan areas and looks at the counties within the region where the data allow. While this is not a comprehensive look at the local economy, it is a gauge of the general direction the economy is moving.
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
ATL US
During the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially) and immediately afterwards, Atlanta was performing worse than the nation as a whole when looking at year-over-year employment changes. Since March of 2012, however, Atlanta has outperformed the nation each month.
Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary. Shaded areas represent recessions this decade)
Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-132,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands)December 2005– March 2013
Overall employment levels are nearing the levels last seen in 2008, but we still have a long way to get back to pre-recession levels.
Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)
Professional/Business
Annual Percent Change:Employment in High-Paying Sectors in Metro Atlanta
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Information Percent Change Finance Percent
Change
-12.0-10.0
-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0
Wholesale Trade Percent Change
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Percent Change
Employment in key sectors continues to remain in positive territory, on a year-over-year basis.
Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)
Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to seasonal layoffs after the holidays. But the latest month, March, has the lowest number of claims since February 2008.
Source: GA DOL
Monthly Building Permits – Metro Atlanta
Dec-0
5
Mar-
06
Jun-0
6
Sep-0
6
Dec-0
6
Mar-
07
Jun-0
7
Sep-0
7
Dec-0
7
Mar-
08
Jun-0
8
Sep-0
8
Dec-0
8
Mar-
09
Jun-0
9
Sep-0
9
Dec-0
9
Mar-
10
Jun-1
0
Sep-1
0
Dec-1
0
Mar-
11
Jun-1
1
Sep-1
1
Dec-1
1
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-1
2
Mar-
130
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Source: SOCDS
The metro Atlanta housing market is still weak. There were 1,621 residential permits issued in March of this year. In contrast, there were almost 7,300 residential permits issued in March of 2006.
Total Building Permits Issues – 2013 YTD (Through March)Top 15 Metros
Las VegasBoston
PhiladelphiaChicagoOrlando
CharlotteMiami
AtlantaPhoenix
Los AngelesAustin
Washington DCNew York
DallasHouston
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Although permitting activity is WAY off when compared to pre-recession, metro Atlanta still ranks 8th in the nation in the number of residential permits issued thus far in 2013.
Source: SOCDS
County-By County: Total Building Permits Issued2011-2013 (Through March)
Barrow
Bartow
Carroll
Cher...
ClaytonCobb
Coweta
DeKalb
Douglas
Fayette
Forsyth
Fulton
Gwin... Hall
Henry NePaul...
Rock...
Spal...
Walto
n0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
201120122013
Most jurisdictions have seen more permitting activity in 2013 than in the previous year (through March). Fulton County has issued, by far, the most residential permits thus far in 2013.
Source: SOCDS
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Home prices have rebounded nicely since the beginning of 2012, although the gains have leveled off somewhat of late. Still, home prices in metro Atlanta continue to trade below January 2000 prices, wiping out a decade of housing price gains.
Source: Case-Shiller Index
NV-Las VegasFL-Miami
AZ-PhoenixFL-Tampa
MI-DetroitCA-San Diego
IL-ChicagoCA-Los Angeles
CA-San FranciscoComposite-10
GA-AtlantaMN-Minneapolis
WA-SeattleDC-Washington
NY-New YorkOR-Portland
OH-ClevelandMA-Boston
NC-CharlotteCO-Denver
TX-Dallas
-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0%
-55.0%-45.2%
-43.7%-42.7%-36.6%-34.4%-34.3%-33.5%-32.1%-29.6%-28.9%-27.6%-26.7%-26.4%-24.9%-24.0%-19.6%-15.7%-15.4%
-5.1%-4.5%
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)Home Price Decline Since Peak
While a 29 percent decline in Atlanta home prices is not good, it is not as bad as the decline in some other metro areas, particularly in the previously “hot” coastal markets and western boomtowns.
Source: Case-Shiller Index
Foreclosure Filings (Through March) 2010 – 2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010201120122013
In every county, foreclosures are lower in 2013, thus far, when compared to the same period in the previous three years.
Source: Equity Depot
Office Vacancy Rate – Metro Atlanta2000 - current
2000
1Q
2000
2Q
2000
3Q
2000
4Q
2001
1Q
2001
2Q
2001
3Q
2001
4Q
2002
1Q
2002
2Q
2002
3Q
2002
4Q
2003
1Q
2003
2Q
2003
3Q
2003
4Q
2004
1Q
2004
2Q
2004
3Q
2004
4Q
2005
1Q
2005
2Q
2005
3Q
2005
4Q
2006
1Q
2006
2Q
2006
3Q
2006
4Q
2007
1Q
2007
2Q
2007
3Q
2007
4Q
2008
1Q
2008
2Q
2008
3Q
2008
4Q
2009
1Q
2009
2Q
2009
3Q
2009
4Q
2010
1Q
2010
2Q
2010
3Q
2010
4Q
2011
1Q
2011
2Q
2011
3Q
2011
4Q
2012
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2013
1Q
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
The recession earlier this decade drove up office vacancy rates for the next few years, andthey never returned to their pre recession levels. Vacancy rates continue to be higher than the ‐highest levels experienced during the last recession. However, vacancy is trending slightly downward.
Source: CoStar
2000
1Q
2000
3Q
2001
1Q
2001
3Q
2002
1Q
2002
3Q
2003
1Q
2003
3Q
2004
1Q
2004
3Q
2005
1Q
2005
3Q
2006
1Q
2006
3Q
2007
1Q
2007
3Q
2008
1Q
2008
3Q
2009
1Q
2009
3Q
2010
1Q
2010
3Q
2011
1Q
2011
3Q
2012
1Q
2012
3Q
2013
1Q
(3,000,000)
(2,000,000)
(1,000,000)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Total Net Absorption of Office Space – Metro Atlanta2000 - current
There have now been eight consecutive quarters with positive net absorption (more occupied office space at the end of the quarter compared to the beginning). Absorption levels still are significantly lower than they were pre-recession, however.
Source: CoStar
Number of Retail Buildings Under Construction– Metro Atlanta2000 - current
2000
1Q
2000
2Q
2000
3Q
2000
4Q
2001
1Q
2001
2Q
2001
3Q
2001
4Q
2002
1Q
2002
2Q
2002
3Q
2002
4Q
2003
1Q
2003
2Q
2003
3Q
2003
4Q
2004
1Q
2004
2Q
2004
3Q
2004
4Q
2005
1Q
2005
2Q
2005
3Q
2005
4Q
2006
1Q
2006
2Q
2006
3Q
2006
4Q
2007
1Q
2007
2Q
2007
3Q
2007
4Q
2008
1Q
2008
2Q
2008
3Q
2008
4Q
2009
1Q
2009
2Q
2009
3Q
2009
4Q
2010
1Q
2010
2Q
2010
3Q
2010
4Q
2011
1Q
2011
2Q
2011
3Q
2011
4Q
2012
1Q
2012
2Q
2012
3Q
2012
4Q
2013
1Q
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
As with residential building, construction of retail buildings is also way down when compared to historical trends, with practically no construction activity observed since the end of 2008.
Source: CoStar