The Prisoners’ Dilemma and IR theories
International Relations
Understanding the Prisoners’ Dilemma
International politics is unique: absence of higher authority Main actors (states) are functionally similar
Friday, 1/25/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz
What is the Prisoners’ Dilemma?
Player 2
Player 1
Confess (defect) Don’t confess (cooperate)
Confess (defect)P1: 3 years – P2: 3 years
(1)
P 1: Free – P2: 25 years
(2)
Don’t confess (cooperate) P1: 25 years – P2: free
(3)
P1: 3 mon/s – P2: 3 mon/s
(4)
Friday, 1/25/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz
The pay off structure
For player 1: 2 > 4 > 1 > 3 For player 2: 3 > 4 > 1 > 2
Most likely outcome is: 1 (both confess to avoid 25 years).
However, this is collectively suboptimal and results in prison terms for each person (3 years).
Why?: lack of communication and self-interest Friday, 1/25/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz
Nowak/May reading
Anarchy and anarchism Hobbes vs. Darwin Competition/free-riding vs. cooperation/reciprocity Kin aid vs. reciprocity
Solutions: enforcement, tit-for-tat.
Friday, 1/25/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz
Nowak/May reading
Results (p. 5 of 10): Cooperation is more likely over the long run. Collapse of cooperation is always a possibility. Pavlov: win-stay, loose-shift. Pavlov survives after more earlier punishment for non-
cooperation. ‘shadow of the future’ Spatial games: do outsiders spoil cooperation?
Friday, 1/25/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz
Theories of IR
Neo-Realism: Prisoners’ Dilemma best describes international politics. Cooperation is unlikely because states are threatened by other states (self-interested survival under anarchy).
Institutionalism: PD can be overcome by building international institutions and communication (self-interested solution to collective action problems).
Constructivism: PD neglects identities and norms. States may share identities (democracy) and naturally cooperate (appropriate behavior expressing one’s identity).
Friday, 1/25/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz
Solving the Prisoners’ Dilemma
Neo-Realism: States must attain a position of strength to secure survival. Other states will interpret such efforts as threats and also strengthen their military: prisoners’ dilemma
Institutionalism: States have an incentive to work together to overcome the prisoners’ dilemma.
Constructivism: States are driven by norms and ideas: “Anarchy (PD) is what states make of it” (Alexander Wendt)
Friday, 1/25/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz
Who, what, why, and how?
Realism Institutionalism Constructivism
What is the organizing principle?
Anarchy Interdependence Norms/ideas
Who are the main actors?
States States States/IGOs/NGOs
What are their main goals?
Survival/power(protect domestic population)
Economic gain and cooperation (maximize domestic well-being)
Solving global problems (maximize everyone’s well-being)
What are the core capabilities?
Military Technologic and economic
Knowledge
Friday, 1/25/2008 Hans Peter Schmitz