The Labor Market for STEM Skills
Jonathan T. Rothwell, PhD FellowBrookings Institution
UNLV September 10, 2014
Why does STEM matter?
1. Enhanced global, national, and regional consumer welfare via enhanced innovation and entrepreneurship
2. Greater prosperity through higher incomes of STEM workers and their colleagues and spending multipliers
3. Private benefits to those who acquire the skills and the owners of companies who employ them
Defining STEM as a set of skills
What is a STEM Job?Conventional View:
• Definition uses no clear standard
• Professional jobs only
• 5% of US workforce
• 80 percent have a bachelor’s degree or higher
How Brookings defines STEM• Based on O*NET survey of
worker knowledge
• 21% of US workforce
• 50 percent have a bachelor’s degree or higher
• Higher correlation with wages and cognitive skill
Major Occupational Categories Sorted by STEM Score, with Share of Jobs that are STEM, 2011
High-STEM, Percentage of
JobsArchitecture and engineering 100%
Life, physical, and social science 87%Healthcare practitioner and technical 76%Computer and mathematical science 100%Installation, maintenance, and repair 53%
Management 27%Construction and extraction 40%
Education, training, and library 9%Business and financial operations 42%
Farming, fishing, and forestry 8%Production 23%
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 16%Sales and related 0%
Legal 0%Source: The Hidden STEM Economy (Brookings Institution, 2013)
The US STEM Labor Market
The STEM Labor Market
Supply
Demand
• Long-run shortage, temporarily ameliorated by the recession
• Weak response in supply, even as salaries have increased
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20120.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Wage Premium for STEM Skills, Controlling for Experience, Education, and Sex, 1950-
2012
Standard Deviation in Occupational STEM Skill
Analysis of data from Census Bureau via Integrated Public Use Microdata Series and O*NET. For methods, see Jonathan Rothwell, “Hidden STEM Economy,” (Brookings Institution, 2012).
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
Growth in real median earnings by occupation, 2000-2013 (Source: BLS Current Population
Survey)
architects and engineerscomputer and mathscientistshealthcare practitionersall occupation
Earn
ings index,
2000=
1
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Average salaries of software developers compared to all other workers, in 2013 dol-
lars (Source: Analysis of Current Population Sur-
vey, via IPUMS)
Software DevelopersAll workers
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
4.6%6.0%
10.2%
14.9%
Growth rate in employment by occu-pation, 2009-2013
USA labor force architects and engineershealthcare practitioner computer and math workers
From 2009-2013, 3 out of every 10 jobs created on net have been in computer and healthcare practitioner occupations
Source: BLS CPS
Apr2004
Oct2004
Apr2005
Oct2005
Apr2006
Oct2006
Apr2007
Oct2007
Apr2008
Oct2008
Apr2009
Oct2009
Apr2010
Oct2010
Apr2011
Oct2011
Apr2012
Oct2012
Apr2013
Oct2013
Apr2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
U.S. Hiring Difficulty Index, 3-month av-erage
Source: Brookings analysis of JOLTS data, 2004-2014
JOLTS Hiring Difficulty Index, 3-month averageIndex = job openings last month per hire this month
March
-200
9
May-2
009
July
-200
9
Sept
embe
r-200
9
Novem
ber-2
009
Janu
ary-
2010
March
-201
0
May-2
010
July
-201
0
Sept
embe
r-201
0
Novem
ber-2
010
Janu
ary-
2011
March
-201
1
May-2
011
July
-201
1
Sept
embe
r-201
1
Novem
ber-2
011
Janu
ary-
2012
March
-201
2
May-2
012
July
-201
2
Sept
embe
r-201
2
Novem
ber-2
012
Janu
ary-
2013
March
-201
3
May-2
013
July
-201
3
Sept
embe
r-201
3
Novem
ber-2
013
Janu
ary-
2014
March
-201
4
May-2
014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Percent of small businesses reporting few or no qualified applicants, 2009 to May 2014
Source: William C. Dunkelbery and Holly Wade, "NFIB Small Business Economic Trends," (NFIB
Research Foundation, June 2014).
Computer and mathematical science
Architecture and engineering
Business and financial operations
Management
Sales and related
USA
Healthcare support
Legal
Food preparation and serving related
Production
Personal care and service
Farming, fishing, and forestry
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
4.33.1
2.51.5
1.11.0
0.90.7
0.60.50.50.50.5
0.40.40.4
0.30.30.20.20.20.1
0.0
Openings per unemployed worker, April 2014 (Source: Conference Board, HWOL)
PhD/p
rofe
ssiona
l deg
ree
Mas
ter's
Bach
elor
's
Asso
ciat
e's de
gree
High
scho
ol
No re
quire
men
t men
tione
d0
10
20
30 2521
1812
85
1411 13
5 62
Median duration of job advertisements posted in 2013-Q1 in days by STEM skill
and minimum education required
STEM Non-STEM
Median DurationAll STEM: 11 days
All Non-STEM: 5 days
Source: “Still Searching: Job Vacancies and STEM Skills” (Brookings)
Health Care Practi
tioners
Computer and M
athematical
Archite
cture and Engineerin
g
Management
Sales and Related
Education, T
raining, and Lib
rary
Food Preparation and Serving
Life, P
hysical, a
nd Social S
cience
Business
and Financial
Arts, D
esign, E
ntertainment
Legal
Health Care Support
Installa
tion, Maintenance
, and Repair
Farming, F
ishing, a
nd Forestry
Protecti
ve Service
Personal C
are and Service
Constructi
on and Extracti
on
Transporta
tion
Community and Socia
l Service
Building and Gro
unds Cleaning
Producti
on
Office and Admin
18
15
13 13
11
8 87 7
5 54
32
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Median duration of 2013-Q1 vacancy advertisement by occupation (Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass)
STEM vacancies are the hardest to
fill
Micro
soft
Windo
wsSQ
LJA
VA
Oracle
Java
Scrip
t
Trou
bles
hoot
ing
Qualit
y As
sura
nce
and
Contro
lSA
P
LINUX
.NET
Pro
gram
ming
Micro
soft
Micro
soft
C#
SQL Se
rver
UNIX
Web
Site
Dev
elop
men
t
Busin
ess Pr
oces
sC+
+
jQue
ry
Busin
ess An
alys
is
Objec
t-Orie
nted
Ana
lysis
and
Des
ign
(OOAD
)0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
The Computer Skills Most Commonly Requested by Employers by number of advertised vacancies in 2013
(Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass)
Regional Variation in STEM Markets
Percentage of Advertised Vacancies in STEM Occupations for metro areas with at least 50,000 vacancies, 2013
(Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass)
High unemployment (>10%)
Moderately high unemployment (<=10%, >
=5%)
Moderately low (<
5%, >=3%)
Low unemployment (<
3%)02468
10121416
7.48.5
13.7 14.3
Average occupational hiring difficulty by regional unem-ployment rate
(Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass and 2012 Census microdata via IPUMS)
Median duration of opening (days) for occupational group
How does the STEM labor market look in Nevada?
Web Developers
Financial Managers, Branch or Department
Network and Computer Systems Administrators
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
Computer User Support Specialists
Medical and Health Services Managers
Software Developers, Applications
Retail Salespersons
Patient Representatives
Registered Nurses
02,000
4,0006,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Of Nevada's 20 Most Common Occupations with Vacancies Advertised in 2013, 9 are STEM jobs
Share of total openings typically requiring
bachelor’s degree or higher in STEM
occupations (2013) versus STEM degree
attainment for population 25 and older (2012), Las Vegas MSA, Source: Brookings analysis of 2013Q4 Burning Glass data, O*NET, and 2012
American Community Survey
In Nevada’s professional level STEM economy, relatively low demand is met with even lower supply
Nevada USA
16.9%
24.4%
6.2%
8.6%
Vacancies requiring bachelor's degree and STEMSTEM bachelor's degree attainment rate
Demand
Supply
STEM jobs in Nevada pay higher salaries at high and low levels of education
Wages of STEM and non-STEM jobs by
educational requirements of
occupations, Nevada, 2013
Source: Brookings analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics OES data
and O*NET
Bachelor's or higher Sub-bachelor's level
$83,925
$57,923 $56,584
$32,743
STEMNon-STEM
4.0%
6.3%6.5%
9.5%
STEM occupationNon-STEM occupa-tion
2012 Unemployment Rate in Nevada by STEM status
of Occupation and Level of
Education
(Source: Analysis of 2012 American Community Survey via IPUMS and
O*NET)
STEM workers in Nevada experience lower unemployment at both high and mid levels of educational attainment
Healthcare support
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media
Office and administrative support
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance
Construction and extraction
Food preparation and serving related
Business and financial operations
Community and social services
Sales and related
Computer and mathematical science
Education, training, and library
0 5 10 15 20 25
Median duration of vacancies in Las Vegas for major occupations, 2013-Q1
(Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass data, 2013-Q1
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Architecture and Engineering
Life, Physical, and Social Science
Management
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance
Business and Financial Operations
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Legal
Computer and Mathematical
Sales and Related
Food Preparation and Serving Related
Office and Administrative Support
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
Production
Transportation and Material Moving
Construction and Extraction
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%
NevadaUSA
Computer workers have relatively high unem-ployment in NV, but other STEM profession-als have the lowest un-employment rates in the state
2012 Unemployment by Occupation in Nevada vs the United StatesSource: 2012 American Community Survey via IPUMS
Networ
k an
d Com
pute
r Sys
tem
s Adm
inist
rato
rs
Softw
are
Develop
ers,
Applic
ations
and
Sys
tem
s Sof
twar
e
Web
Dev
elop
ers
Compu
ter O
ccup
ations
, All O
ther
Compu
ter S
cient
ists a
nd S
yste
ms A
nalys
ts
Compu
ter S
uppo
rt Sp
ecialis
ts
Compu
ter P
rogr
amm
ers
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0%
4% 4% 5%8%
10%
24%
Unemployment Rates of Computer Occupations in Nevada with at Least 1000 Workers in 2012
(Source: 2012 American Community Survey via IPUMS)
Mean advertisement duration in days of average skill requested in computer occupations advertised in 100 metropolitan areas with most
vacancies, 2013(Source: Brookings analysis of Burning Glass data)
Las Vegas, 39.8
San Jose, 44.2
Boulder CO, 41.4
Computer jobs advertised in Las Vegas require easier-to-find skills than those advertised in most metropolitan areas
Honolulu, 38.1
The Supply Problem
Science Technologies; 105; 0%Engineering technologies;
19138; 2% Agriculture Science; 5355; 1%Engineering; 74423; 7%
Computer sciences; 39927; 4%
Math; 16515; 2%
Biology; 39047; 4%Physical Sciences;
20155; 2%
Health Professions; 64399; 6%
Non-STEM; 724468; 72%
1987: Majors by field for STEM and non-STEM (Source: NSF)
2012: Majors by field for STEM and non-STEM (Source: NSF)
Science Technologies; 568; 0%Engineering technologies;
16040; 1% Agriculture Science; 16365; 1%Engineering; 82197; 5%Computer sciences; 41745; 2%
Math; 18838; 1%Biology; 96912; 6%Physical Sciences;
26347; 2%
Health Professions; 152734; 9%
Non-STEM; 1288267;
74%
Engaging young women in STEM can help narrow the STEM gap in Nevada
Female share of bachelor’s degree holders by STEM
field, ages 18 to 30, Nevada, 2010-2012
Source: Brookings analysis of 2010-2012 American Community
Survey via IPUMSEn
ginee
ring
Computer an
d Inform
ation Sc
ience
s
Mathem
atics
and St
atisti
cs
Biology an
d Life
Scien
ces
Medica
l and Hea
lth Sc
ience
s and Se
rvice
s
21%31%
56%65%
80%
Popu
latio
n sh
are
Compu
ter a
nd In
form
ation
Scienc
es
Engine
ering
Biology
and
Life
Scie
nces
Mat
hem
atics
and
Sta
tistic
s
Med
ical a
nd H
ealth
Scie
nces
and
Ser
vices
8%
32%18% 19% 13%
30%9%
4%
8% 2%0%
6%33%14%
10% 16%
0%
15%
45% 47%64% 57%
87%
46%
whitelatinoblackasian
STEM bachelor’s degree attainment
by field versus population share, by race/ethnicity, 18-30 year-olds, Nevada, 2010-
2012
Source: Brookings analysis of 2010-2012 American
Community Survey via IPUMS
Closing the STEM opportunity gap will also require elevating STEM completion rates for under-represented young populations, especially African Americans and Latinos
Why don’t more people get STEM training?
1. Success in STEM depends on knowledge acquired as a child. High wage premiums for STEM degree holders don’t make parents and teachers better at teaching STEM subjects or children more committed to learning them
2. Switch-out rates are extremely high and correlated with math experience and skill, suggesting inadequate K-12 prep and higher-ed resources
3. Cultural and social barriers prevent many women, blacks, and Latinos from pursuing a STEM degree
How to boost STEM Skills
The to-do list1) Enrich infant/toddler home life
2) Improve pre-K to 10th grade quality across the board
3) Allow students to take post-secondary level classes during last two years of high school
4) Lower cost of college and adopt best practices in retention and completion in higher-education
5) Expand access to adult training & improve curriculum alignment with demand
Who Needs to do it1) Non-profits; state & local
governments
2) Non-profits; state & local governments
3) Non-profits; state & local governments
4) Governments, non-profits and Higher Ed via innovation, tuition support, tutoring, and mentoring
5) Governments; Colleges; Businesses via philanthropic
investments, apprenticeships, internships, and on-the-job training
For more informationEmail:
Jonathan Rothwell [email protected]
Visit:www.brookings.edu/metro
Hidden STEM Economy http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2013/06/10-stem-economy-rothwell
Still Searching : Job Vacancies and STEM Skillshttp://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/2014/job-vacancies-and-stem-skills#/M10420
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