Storm Surge Modeling for Storm Surge Modeling for the the
New York City Metropolitan New York City Metropolitan RegionRegionBrian A. Colle, Brian A. Colle, Malcolm J. Malcolm J.
Bowman, Robert E. Wilson, Bowman, Robert E. Wilson, Frank Buonaiuto, Robert Frank Buonaiuto, Robert
Hunter, Douglas Hill, Roger Hunter, Douglas Hill, Roger Flood, Yi Zheng, and Christian Flood, Yi Zheng, and Christian
MircheMirchell
Stony Brook Storm Surge Stony Brook Storm Surge Research GroupResearch Group
Marine Sciences Research Marine Sciences Research CenterCenter
Stony Brook University / SUNYStony Brook University / SUNY
Photo: copyright 2004 Twentieth Century Fox
A nor-easter in November 1950 caused extensive flooding of La Guardia airport (Bloomfield, 1999) FDR Drive during the
December 1992 nor’easter (Bloomfield, 1999)
Ref: Bloomfield, J., M. Smith and N. Thompson, 1999. Hot Nights in the City. Environmental Defense Fund, New York.
1992 Nor’easter Flooding
Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995
Nor’easter Storm Nor’easter Storm SurgeSurge
5-8 March 1962 stormSource: N.A. Pore and C.S Barrientos, Storm Surge,
1976.
2
2
2
2
2
(feet)
Hurricane Storm Surge
21-22 September 1938 hurricaneSource: N.A. Pore and C.S. Barrientos, Storm Surge, 1976
Lidar image of business district of Manhattan showing seawall locations and elevation (arrows). The imager is flying above the Hudson River looking east.
New York City FloodingNew York City Flooding
Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995
Flood areas for hurricane:
CAT 1
CAT 2
CAT 3
CAT 4
NYC Rise in Sea LevelNYC Rise in Sea Level
6
8 M
ean
Sea
Lev
el (
m.)
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Time (yrs.)
(courtesy Robert J. Nicholls)
Observations Projection
SUNY-SB Realtime MM5 Domains
Stony Brook Real-time MM5: 36 km,12 km and 4 km domains.
ADCIRC and MM5 (12 km) model domain.
Storm Surge modeling uses12-km MM5 and Advanced Circulation Model for Coastal Ocean Hydrodynamics (ADCIRC)– run in barotropic mode
ADCIRC Grid Around Long Island and NYC
Detail of gridding in lower Manhattan up to +8 m contour
Track of Floyd (1999)
Floyd Surface:
2100 UTC
16 Sept 1999
See (Colle MWR 2003)
12-km MM5 at 2100 UTC 16 Sept 1999 (21 h)
10
12
18
22
26
oC
L
Figure 8-3 Water level at Battery during Floyd
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
25 45 65 85 105
Time,hr
Wat
er
leve
l,m
model
observation
Figure 8-4 Water level at Willets Point during Floyd
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115
Time,hr
Wat
er
leve
l,m
model
observation
Figure 8-5 Water level at Sandy Hook during Floyd
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115
Time,hr
Wat
er
leve
l,m
observation
model
Comparison of observations and
modeling of sea level during Floyd
X
What if peak observed surge occurred during Spring tide a week earlier?
X
Model comparison of water levels at the Battery, NYC for CTL, Shifted, Super, and Max Floyd
Flooding experiments superimposed on topo
and aerial photo
Super Floyd (2 x winds)
Max Floyd (shifted plus 2x winds)
Proposed Barrier Locations
Water l evel at barr i er 3 dur i ng FLoyd
- 1.5
-1
- 0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Ti me, hr
Elev
atio
n,m
barri er 3 i nner si debarri er 3 out si de
Water l evel at barr i er 1 duri ng Fl oyd
- 1
- 0. 5
0
0. 5
1
1. 5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Ti me, hr
Elev
atio
n,m
barr i er 1 i nner si debarr i er 1 out si de
Water l evel at barr i er 2 dur i ng Fl oyd
- 2. 5
- 2
- 1. 5
- 1- 0. 5
0
0. 51
1. 5
22. 5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Ti me, hr
elev
atio
n,m
barr i er 2 i nner si debarr i er 2 out si de
close
close
open
open
closeopen
The Narrows
Perth Amboy
Upper East River
Water levels inside/outside barriers for Floyd simulations.
Incremental rise in water level east of closed East River barrier
during CTL Floyd.
Maximum difference of water level
y = 0.2721x-0.6847
R2 = 0.977
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Station No.
Wat
er le
vel d
iffe
ren
ce,m
Venice Lagoon Design, 2010Venice Lagoon Design, 2010
http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu/
Real-time Northern Stations
SummarySummary The New York City region is vulnerable to storm The New York City region is vulnerable to storm
surge flooding.surge flooding. ADCIRC model realistically predicted the coastal ADCIRC model realistically predicted the coastal
water levels around NYC for Floyd (1999).water levels around NYC for Floyd (1999). More severe flooding would have occurred if More severe flooding would have occurred if
Floyd approached during high or spring tide or Floyd approached during high or spring tide or if it remained a CAT1 (70 kt) hurricane.if it remained a CAT1 (70 kt) hurricane.
A real-time surge model system has been setup. A real-time surge model system has been setup. Look for 4-5 ensemble members this winter.Look for 4-5 ensemble members this winter.
Storm surge barriers would likely work for NYC. Storm surge barriers would likely work for NYC. Need to continue to investigate their feasibility.Need to continue to investigate their feasibility.
http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu/