Storm Surge Modeling for Storm Surge Modeling for the the

New York City Metropolitan New York City Metropolitan RegionRegionBrian A. Colle, Brian A. Colle, Malcolm J. Malcolm J.

Bowman, Robert E. Wilson, Bowman, Robert E. Wilson, Frank Buonaiuto, Robert Frank Buonaiuto, Robert

Hunter, Douglas Hill, Roger Hunter, Douglas Hill, Roger Flood, Yi Zheng, and Christian Flood, Yi Zheng, and Christian

MircheMirchell

Stony Brook Storm Surge Stony Brook Storm Surge Research GroupResearch Group

Marine Sciences Research Marine Sciences Research CenterCenter

Stony Brook University / SUNYStony Brook University / SUNY

Photo: copyright 2004 Twentieth Century Fox

A nor-easter in November 1950 caused extensive flooding of La Guardia airport (Bloomfield, 1999) FDR Drive during the

December 1992 nor’easter (Bloomfield, 1999)

Ref: Bloomfield, J., M. Smith and N. Thompson, 1999. Hot Nights in the City. Environmental Defense Fund, New York.

1992 Nor’easter Flooding

Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995

Nor’easter Storm Nor’easter Storm SurgeSurge

5-8 March 1962 stormSource: N.A. Pore and C.S Barrientos, Storm Surge,

1976.

2

2

2

2

2

(feet)

Hurricane Storm Surge

21-22 September 1938 hurricaneSource: N.A. Pore and C.S. Barrientos, Storm Surge, 1976

Lidar image of business district of Manhattan showing seawall locations and elevation (arrows). The imager is flying above the Hudson River looking east.

New York City FloodingNew York City Flooding

Source: Metro New York Hurricane Transportation Study, 1995

Flood areas for hurricane:

CAT 1

CAT 2

CAT 3

CAT 4

NYC Rise in Sea LevelNYC Rise in Sea Level

6

8 M

ean

Sea

Lev

el (

m.)

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Time (yrs.)

(courtesy Robert J. Nicholls)

Observations Projection

SUNY-SB Realtime MM5 Domains

Stony Brook Real-time MM5: 36 km,12 km and 4 km domains.

ADCIRC and MM5 (12 km) model domain.

Storm Surge modeling uses12-km MM5 and Advanced Circulation Model for Coastal Ocean Hydrodynamics (ADCIRC)– run in barotropic mode

ADCIRC Grid Around Long Island and NYC

Detail of gridding in lower Manhattan up to +8 m contour

Track of Floyd (1999)

Floyd Surface:

2100 UTC

16 Sept 1999

See (Colle MWR 2003)

12-km MM5 at 2100 UTC 16 Sept 1999 (21 h)

10

12

18

22

26

oC

L

Figure 8-3 Water level at Battery during Floyd

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

25 45 65 85 105

Time,hr

Wat

er

leve

l,m

model

observation

Figure 8-4 Water level at Willets Point during Floyd

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115

Time,hr

Wat

er

leve

l,m

model

observation

Figure 8-5 Water level at Sandy Hook during Floyd

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

25 35 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115

Time,hr

Wat

er

leve

l,m

observation

model

Comparison of observations and

modeling of sea level during Floyd

X

What if peak observed surge occurred during Spring tide a week earlier?

X

Model comparison of water levels at the Battery, NYC for CTL, Shifted, Super, and Max Floyd

Flooding experiments superimposed on topo

and aerial photo

Super Floyd (2 x winds)

Max Floyd (shifted plus 2x winds)

Proposed Barrier Locations

Water l evel at barr i er 3 dur i ng FLoyd

- 1.5

-1

- 0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Ti me, hr

Elev

atio

n,m

barri er 3 i nner si debarri er 3 out si de

Water l evel at barr i er 1 duri ng Fl oyd

- 1

- 0. 5

0

0. 5

1

1. 5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Ti me, hr

Elev

atio

n,m

barr i er 1 i nner si debarr i er 1 out si de

Water l evel at barr i er 2 dur i ng Fl oyd

- 2. 5

- 2

- 1. 5

- 1- 0. 5

0

0. 51

1. 5

22. 5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Ti me, hr

elev

atio

n,m

barr i er 2 i nner si debarr i er 2 out si de

close

close

open

open

closeopen

The Narrows

Perth Amboy

Upper East River

Water levels inside/outside barriers for Floyd simulations.

Incremental rise in water level east of closed East River barrier

during CTL Floyd.

Maximum difference of water level

y = 0.2721x-0.6847

R2 = 0.977

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Station No.

Wat

er le

vel d

iffe

ren

ce,m

Venice Lagoon Design, 2010Venice Lagoon Design, 2010

http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu/

Real-time Northern Stations

SummarySummary The New York City region is vulnerable to storm The New York City region is vulnerable to storm

surge flooding.surge flooding. ADCIRC model realistically predicted the coastal ADCIRC model realistically predicted the coastal

water levels around NYC for Floyd (1999).water levels around NYC for Floyd (1999). More severe flooding would have occurred if More severe flooding would have occurred if

Floyd approached during high or spring tide or Floyd approached during high or spring tide or if it remained a CAT1 (70 kt) hurricane.if it remained a CAT1 (70 kt) hurricane.

A real-time surge model system has been setup. A real-time surge model system has been setup. Look for 4-5 ensemble members this winter.Look for 4-5 ensemble members this winter.

Storm surge barriers would likely work for NYC. Storm surge barriers would likely work for NYC. Need to continue to investigate their feasibility.Need to continue to investigate their feasibility.

http://stormy.msrc.sunysb.edu/