Slide 1: Overview of the Cairns Labour Market
This is a presentation given by Ivan Neville, Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch on 31 March 2015 at a meeting of Advance Cairns
Slide 2: Map of Cairns
The Cairns SA4 Region is made up of the following SA3 and SA2 regions
Cairns SA4 incorporates the following LGAs (2006)
Atherton LGACairns LGACardwell LGADouglas LGAEacham LGAHerberton LGAJohnstone LGAMareeba LGAYarrabah LGA
SA3 / SA2
Cairns - North
Brinsmead
Clifton Beach - Kewarra Beach
Freshwater - Stratford
Redlynch
Trinity Beach - Smithfield
Yorkeys Knob - Machans Beach
Cairns -South
Bentley Park
Cairns City
Earlville - Bayview Heights
Edmonton
Gordonvale - Trinity
Kanimbla - Mooroobool
Lamb Range
Manoora
Manunda
Mount Sheridan
Westcourt - Bungalow
White Rock
Innisfail – Cassowary Bay
Babinda
Innisfail
Johnstone
Tully
Wooroonooran
Yarrabah
Port Douglas - Daintree
Daintree
Port Douglas
Tablelands (East) - Kuranda
Atherton
Herberton
Kuranda
Malanda - Yungaburra
Mareeba
Whitfield - Edge Hill
Woree
Slide 3 Regional snapshot
Unemployment rate 7.7%
Fall in employment -3%
Pockets of high Indigenous population
High Indigenous unemployment 28.4%
Population – young people leaving
Employers more optimistic
Population and economic profile Population Unemployment Industry
Slide 4 Cairns Population Profile
Region
Adult Population
(15+) 2013
Growth (15+)
2008 to 2013
% Adult pop 55+
Median Age 2011
Cairns – North 40,200 16% 28% 37
Cairns – South 80,000 10% 27% 34
Innisfail - Cassowary Coast 28,100 2% 38% 41
Port Douglas – Daintree 9,300 5% 34% 40
Tablelands (East) – Kuranda 32,100 6% 42% 43
Cairns 189,600 9% 32% 37
Queensland 3,732,500 11% 31% 36
Slide 5 Young people leaving and population ageing
Source: ABS, Estimated Residential Population, 2013
Slide 6 Employment continues to decline
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (4 quarter averages)
Slide 7 Full-time employment declining
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (12 month averages)
Slide 8 Internet vacancies
Source: Department of Employment, Internet Vacancies, January 2015
Slide 9 The GFC and the high Australian dollar has had an impact on the unemployment rate
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (12 month averages)
The unemployment rate for the Cairns region has remained consistently above the national rate since February 2008. The unemployment rate is presently 7.7 per cent in Cairns and 6.7 per cent in Queensland.
Slide 10 Regional disparity
Region Unemployment Rate September 2014
Cairns – North 4.0%
Cairns – South 9.1%
Innisfail - Cassowary Coast 9.7%
Port Douglas – Daintree 6.8%
Tablelands (East) – Kuranda 10.0%
Cairns 7.7%
Yarrabah 54.8%
Source: Department of Employment, Small Area Labour Markets, December Quarter 2014; ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015
Slide 11 Indigenous labour market outcomes are softer
Region Indigenous population
Unemployment Rate (WAP)
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
Yarrabah 97% 63.1% 31.3%
Manoora 24% 36.5% 8.2%
Westcourt - Bungalow 16% 36.3% 8.7%
Mareeba 14% 32.4% 5.1%
Manunda 18% 30.1% 9.0%
Innisfail 16% 22.2% 6.6%
Cairns 10% 28.4% 5.6%
Queensland 3% 18.0% 5.8%
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
The indigenous population of Cairns is predominantly concentrated in Yarrabah. 97% of the SA2 of Yarrabah is indigenous compared to 9% in the rest of Cairns and 2% in the rest of Queensland.
The unemployment rate in Yarrabah is 63.1% for the indigenous population with a participation rate of 53.6%.
However there are many other pockets of indigenous people in the Cairns area and they too have higher than average unemployment figures.
Slide 12 Largest employing industries
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (4 quarter averages)
Slide 13 Structural change over the last decade
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (4 quarter averages)
Slide 14 International Visitors
Source: Queensland Government Statistician’s Office
Slide 15 Potential growth for tourism
The Queensland Tourism Forecast Committee expects international visitor nights to increase by 20% between 2010 and 2020.
₋ The more ambitious industry potential figures have the increase closer to 50%
Domestic tourism, however, is projected to remain flat to 2020. ₋ The industry potential figures are for 31% growth over the same
period.
Source: Deloitte Access Economics 2011 report – Queensland Tourism – Industry Outlook and Potential to 2020
With a likely pick-up in the economy, a lower dollar and an increase in international visitors, what is the potential labour supply for the region?
Slide 16 Youth unemployment is high
Region
Long-term unemployed (52 weeks or more) Average
duration of unemployment
(weeks)Persons Annual change
Per cent of all
unemployed
Cairns SA4 2,400 50 27% 44 Weeks
Queensland 36,000 7,700 22% 40 Weeks
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, October 2014 (12 month averages)
Slide 17 And youth disengagement is a major issue in some areas
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
Slide 18 Long-term unemployment also a challenge
Region
Long-term unemployed(52 weeks or more) Average
duration of unemployment
(weeks)Persons Annual
changePer cent of all unemployed
Cairns SA4 2,400 50 27% 44 Weeks
Queensland 36,000 7,700 22% 40 Weeks
Source: ABS, Labour Force, October 2014 (12 month averages)
Slide 19 Possible female labour supply now and into the future
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (12 month averages)
Transition into employment to meet future demand - education is vital
Slide 20 Lower education levels
RegionCompleted Year 12 (18-24)
Indigenous Non-Indigenous
Mareeba 36% 66%
Yarrabah 37% 65%
Innisfail 41% 67%
Herberton 41% 81%
Manoora 45% 67%
Daintree 47% 57%
Kuranda 52% 66%
Cairns SA4 52% 71%
Queensland 53% 77%
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
Slide 21 Educational Attainment and Labour Market Outcomes
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
What are employers telling us?
Slide 22 Recruitment activity in Cairns
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, July 2014, Cairns region
295 employers were surveyed in the Cairns region in July 2014.
58 per cent of employer in Cairns recruited in the 12 months prior to the survey. Recruited was most active in the Accommodation and Food Services (85 per cent) and Health Care and Social Assistance (69 per cent) industries.
3.9 per cent of vacancies went unfilled in the most recent recruitment round. The highest unfilled rates were seen for Technicians and Trades workers (12.8 per cent) and Sales Workers (5.1 per cent).
Less than 1 in 3 employers reported recruitment difficulty.
The recruitment in past 12 months reduced from 67% in 2013.
Slide 23 The recruitment process
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Cairns region, July 2014
On average employers in Cairns received 13 applicants per vacancy.
Of these applicants on average only 2 were interviewed.
Of these interviewed applicants only 1 was suitable for the vacancy.
The reasons applicants did not get an interview were:
₋ Lack of relevant experience₋ Poorly written/presented application₋ Insufficient qualifications or training₋ Basic employability skills
Slide 24 Almost half of all local jobs are not advertised
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Cairns region, July 2014
Just over half of recruiting employers (52 per cent) used formal methods to advertise for vacancies (i.e. Internet, Newspaper)
The other half (48 per cent) of recruiting employers used Informal methods ONLY to recruit for vacancies (i.e. Word of Mouth, Approached by job seeker)
Slide 25 But some vacancies still not being filled
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Cairns region, July 2014
Unfilled vacancies by Industry
Manufacturing 5.9%
Construction 7.7%
Retail Trade 2.6%
Accommodation and Food Services 3.0%
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 14.3%
Health Care and Social Services 9.5%
Other Services 8.3%
Slide 26 Recruitment activity to increase
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Cairns region, July 2014
21 per cent of the businesses surveyed in Cairns in 2014 expected to increase staff in the following 12 months and 6 per cent expected to decrease staff. This was a slight improvement from July 2013 when the region was last surveyed, where only 17 percent expected to increase staff and 8 per cent expected to decrease staff. In the combined surveys figures to December 2014 19 per cent expected to increase staff and 6 per cent expected to decrease staff.
Slide 27 …and likely to be in these jobs
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Cairns region, July 2014
This slide shows the occupations that employers are likely to recruit for in the next 12 months.
Slide 28 ConclusionLabour market remains subdued
Skills /Demand issues
₋ Tourism numbers are expected to increase with opportunities in
Hospitality and Retail
₋ Growth in the Education and Training and Health Care and Social
Assistance industries
₋ Labour supply challenges:
Ageing population, young people leaving, accessing untapped
local labour supply
Increasing Year 12 completion to ensure young people can undertake
further education and the training required to meet the expected future
demand
Recruitment activity is expected to increase
₋ More employers have unfilled vacancies, particularly Technicians and
Trades Workers and Sales Worker occupations
₋ A high proportion of employers in three of the largest employing
industries expect to increase staff numbers in the next 12 months
How do locals take advantage of expected opportunities?
₋ Education/Training
₋ Work experience
₋ Job search – approach employers directly, focus on presentation and
quality of application and résumé
Slide 29 Further InformationIf you have any questions about the presentation please contact the Employer Surveys Section or Recruitment Analysis Section on:
Tel: 1800 059 439 or
Email: [email protected]
Further information
₋ www.employment.gov.au/lmip
₋ www. employment.gov.au/skillshortages
₋ www. employment.gov.au /regionalreports
₋ www. employment .gov.au /australianjobs
₋ www.joboutlook.gov.au
₋ www.mycareer.com.au
₋ http://govolunteer.com.au