Slide 1: Overview of the Cairns Labour Market

This is a presentation given by Ivan Neville, Branch Manager Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch on 31 March 2015 at a meeting of Advance Cairns

Slide 2: Map of Cairns

The Cairns SA4 Region is made up of the following SA3 and SA2 regions

Cairns SA4 incorporates the following LGAs (2006)

Atherton LGACairns LGACardwell LGADouglas LGAEacham LGAHerberton LGAJohnstone LGAMareeba LGAYarrabah LGA

SA3 / SA2

Cairns - North

Brinsmead

Clifton Beach - Kewarra Beach

Freshwater - Stratford

Redlynch

Trinity Beach - Smithfield

Yorkeys Knob - Machans Beach

Cairns -South

Bentley Park

Cairns City

Earlville - Bayview Heights

Edmonton

Gordonvale - Trinity

Kanimbla - Mooroobool

Lamb Range

Manoora

Manunda

Mount Sheridan

Westcourt - Bungalow

White Rock

Innisfail – Cassowary Bay

Babinda

Innisfail

Johnstone

Tully

Wooroonooran

Yarrabah

Port Douglas - Daintree

Daintree

Port Douglas

Tablelands (East) - Kuranda

Atherton

Herberton

Kuranda

Malanda - Yungaburra

Mareeba

Whitfield - Edge Hill

Woree

Slide 3 Regional snapshot

Unemployment rate 7.7%

Fall in employment -3%

Pockets of high Indigenous population

High Indigenous unemployment 28.4%

Population – young people leaving

Employers more optimistic

Population and economic profile Population Unemployment Industry

Slide 4 Cairns Population Profile

Region

Adult Population

(15+) 2013

Growth (15+)

2008 to 2013

% Adult pop 55+

Median Age 2011

Cairns – North 40,200 16% 28% 37

Cairns – South 80,000 10% 27% 34

Innisfail - Cassowary Coast 28,100 2% 38% 41

Port Douglas – Daintree 9,300 5% 34% 40

Tablelands (East) – Kuranda 32,100 6% 42% 43

Cairns 189,600 9% 32% 37

Queensland 3,732,500 11% 31% 36

Slide 5 Young people leaving and population ageing

Source: ABS, Estimated Residential Population, 2013

Slide 6 Employment continues to decline

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (4 quarter averages)

Slide 7 Full-time employment declining

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (12 month averages)

Slide 8 Internet vacancies

Source: Department of Employment, Internet Vacancies, January 2015

Slide 9 The GFC and the high Australian dollar has had an impact on the unemployment rate

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (12 month averages)

The unemployment rate for the Cairns region has remained consistently above the national rate since February 2008. The unemployment rate is presently 7.7 per cent in Cairns and 6.7 per cent in Queensland.

Slide 10 Regional disparity

Region Unemployment Rate September 2014

Cairns – North 4.0%

Cairns – South 9.1%

Innisfail - Cassowary Coast 9.7%

Port Douglas – Daintree 6.8%

Tablelands (East) – Kuranda 10.0%

Cairns 7.7%

Yarrabah 54.8%

Source: Department of Employment, Small Area Labour Markets, December Quarter 2014; ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015

Slide 11 Indigenous labour market outcomes are softer

Region Indigenous population

Unemployment Rate (WAP)

Indigenous Non-Indigenous

Yarrabah 97% 63.1% 31.3%

Manoora 24% 36.5% 8.2%

Westcourt - Bungalow 16% 36.3% 8.7%

Mareeba 14% 32.4% 5.1%

Manunda 18% 30.1% 9.0%

Innisfail 16% 22.2% 6.6%

Cairns 10% 28.4% 5.6%

Queensland 3% 18.0% 5.8%

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

The indigenous population of Cairns is predominantly concentrated in Yarrabah. 97% of the SA2 of Yarrabah is indigenous compared to 9% in the rest of Cairns and 2% in the rest of Queensland.

The unemployment rate in Yarrabah is 63.1% for the indigenous population with a participation rate of 53.6%.

However there are many other pockets of indigenous people in the Cairns area and they too have higher than average unemployment figures.

Slide 12 Largest employing industries

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (4 quarter averages)

Slide 13 Structural change over the last decade

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (4 quarter averages)

Slide 14 International Visitors

Source: Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

Slide 15 Potential growth for tourism

The Queensland Tourism Forecast Committee expects international visitor nights to increase by 20% between 2010 and 2020.

₋ The more ambitious industry potential figures have the increase closer to 50%

Domestic tourism, however, is projected to remain flat to 2020. ₋ The industry potential figures are for 31% growth over the same

period.

Source: Deloitte Access Economics 2011 report – Queensland Tourism – Industry Outlook and Potential to 2020

With a likely pick-up in the economy, a lower dollar and an increase in international visitors, what is the potential labour supply for the region?

Slide 16 Youth unemployment is high

Region

Long-term unemployed (52 weeks or more) Average

duration of unemployment

(weeks)Persons Annual change

Per cent of all

unemployed

Cairns SA4 2,400 50 27% 44 Weeks

Queensland 36,000 7,700 22% 40 Weeks

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, October 2014 (12 month averages)

Slide 17 And youth disengagement is a major issue in some areas

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

Slide 18 Long-term unemployment also a challenge

Region

Long-term unemployed(52 weeks or more) Average

duration of unemployment

(weeks)Persons Annual

changePer cent of all unemployed

Cairns SA4 2,400 50 27% 44 Weeks

Queensland 36,000 7,700 22% 40 Weeks

Source: ABS, Labour Force, October 2014 (12 month averages)

Slide 19 Possible female labour supply now and into the future

Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February 2015 (12 month averages)

Transition into employment to meet future demand - education is vital

Slide 20 Lower education levels

RegionCompleted Year 12 (18-24)

Indigenous Non-Indigenous

Mareeba 36% 66%

Yarrabah 37% 65%

Innisfail 41% 67%

Herberton 41% 81%

Manoora 45% 67%

Daintree 47% 57%

Kuranda 52% 66%

Cairns SA4 52% 71%

Queensland 53% 77%

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

Slide 21 Educational Attainment and Labour Market Outcomes

Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

What are employers telling us?

Slide 22 Recruitment activity in Cairns

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, July 2014, Cairns region

295 employers were surveyed in the Cairns region in July 2014.

58 per cent of employer in Cairns recruited in the 12 months prior to the survey. Recruited was most active in the Accommodation and Food Services (85 per cent) and Health Care and Social Assistance (69 per cent) industries.

3.9 per cent of vacancies went unfilled in the most recent recruitment round. The highest unfilled rates were seen for Technicians and Trades workers (12.8 per cent) and Sales Workers (5.1 per cent).

Less than 1 in 3 employers reported recruitment difficulty.

The recruitment in past 12 months reduced from 67% in 2013.

Slide 23 The recruitment process

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Cairns region, July 2014

On average employers in Cairns received 13 applicants per vacancy.

Of these applicants on average only 2 were interviewed.

Of these interviewed applicants only 1 was suitable for the vacancy.

The reasons applicants did not get an interview were:

₋ Lack of relevant experience₋ Poorly written/presented application₋ Insufficient qualifications or training₋ Basic employability skills

Slide 24 Almost half of all local jobs are not advertised

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Cairns region, July 2014

Just over half of recruiting employers (52 per cent) used formal methods to advertise for vacancies (i.e. Internet, Newspaper)

The other half (48 per cent) of recruiting employers used Informal methods ONLY to recruit for vacancies (i.e. Word of Mouth, Approached by job seeker)

Slide 25 But some vacancies still not being filled

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Cairns region, July 2014

Unfilled vacancies by Industry

Manufacturing 5.9%

Construction 7.7%

Retail Trade 2.6%

Accommodation and Food Services 3.0%

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 14.3%

Health Care and Social Services 9.5%

Other Services 8.3%

Slide 26 Recruitment activity to increase

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Cairns region, July 2014

21 per cent of the businesses surveyed in Cairns in 2014 expected to increase staff in the following 12 months and 6 per cent expected to decrease staff. This was a slight improvement from July 2013 when the region was last surveyed, where only 17 percent expected to increase staff and 8 per cent expected to decrease staff. In the combined surveys figures to December 2014 19 per cent expected to increase staff and 6 per cent expected to decrease staff.

Slide 27 …and likely to be in these jobs

Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Cairns region, July 2014

This slide shows the occupations that employers are likely to recruit for in the next 12 months.

Slide 28 ConclusionLabour market remains subdued

Skills /Demand issues

₋ Tourism numbers are expected to increase with opportunities in

Hospitality and Retail

₋ Growth in the Education and Training and Health Care and Social

Assistance industries

₋ Labour supply challenges:

Ageing population, young people leaving, accessing untapped

local labour supply

Increasing Year 12 completion to ensure young people can undertake

further education and the training required to meet the expected future

demand

Recruitment activity is expected to increase

₋ More employers have unfilled vacancies, particularly Technicians and

Trades Workers and Sales Worker occupations

₋ A high proportion of employers in three of the largest employing

industries expect to increase staff numbers in the next 12 months

How do locals take advantage of expected opportunities?

₋ Education/Training

₋ Work experience

₋ Job search – approach employers directly, focus on presentation and

quality of application and résumé

Slide 29 Further InformationIf you have any questions about the presentation please contact the Employer Surveys Section or Recruitment Analysis Section on:

Tel: 1800 059 439 or

Email: recruitmentsurveys@employment.gov.au

Further information

₋ www.employment.gov.au/lmip

₋ www. employment.gov.au/skillshortages

₋ www. employment.gov.au /regionalreports

₋ www. employment .gov.au /australianjobs

₋ www.joboutlook.gov.au

₋ www.mycareer.com.au

₋ http://govolunteer.com.au