United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
April 2011 2011 Trade Forecast Update:
Pork Higher; Beef and Broiler Meat Stable
Beef production is virtually unchanged since the last forecast in October 2010 and tight supplies and high prices continue to constrain significant trade expansion. Amidst this environment, the revised trade forecast calls for a shift in gains expected among exporters as supplies, prices and exchange rates impact competitiveness particularly in Middle East and Southeast Asia markets. Increases in shipments are now expected to be largely captured by up-and-coming supplier India rather than Brazil, the world’s leading exporter. Demand in many key markets is largely dependent on the pace of economic recovery. Record global pork production is largely a function of efficiency gains in China, and higher slaughter weights in the EU, which are expected to more than offset the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) related drop in South Korea. Expanded world trade is driven by strong demand from South Korea, China, and the Ukraine. Broiler meat production is forecast to expand on stronger demand and tight supplies of beef and pork in most major producing countries. World trade remains virtually unchanged. Russia’s December announcement of a 42 percent decline in the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume to 350,000 metric tons resulted in a significant downward revision to its import forecast. Chinese imports are forecast lower as reduced U.S. shipments (as a result of market access issues) more than offsets higher shipments from South America. Brazilian and U.S. exports are revised lower, offsetting larger exports from the EU and China on strong demand from Asian and African markets.
Note: Data in this document reflects the PSD (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline) and WASDE release of April 8, 2011.
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
April 2011
Contents
Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry 2011 Forecast Overviews
Beef Pork Poultry Turkey
Summary Tables Beef Summary Table Pork Summary Table
Broiler Meat Summary Table Turkey Meat Summary Table
Cattle Summary Table Swine Summary Table
Per Capita Consumption Summary Selected Countries
Beef Pork
Broiler
Notes to Readers
April 2011
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (p) 2011 (f)
Percent Change 2010 to
2011
Beef and Veal /1 57,751 58,618 58,600 57,356 57,323 57,358 0.1%
Pork /1 95,377 94,013 97,743 100,399 103,223 104,514 1.3%
Broiler and Turkey /2 69,464 73,663 77,053 77,320 81,012 83,328 2.9%
Total 222,592 226,294 233,396 235,075 241,558 245,200 1.5%
Beef and Veal /1 56,994 58,133 57,975 56,668 56,544 56,493 -0.1%
Pork /1 95,109 93,849 97,853 100,268 102,953 104,392 1.4%
Broiler & Turkey /2 69,251 73,325 76,124 76,779 79,975 82,226 2.8%
Total 221,354 225,307 231,952 233,715 239,472 243,111 1.5%
Beef and Veal /1 6,815 7,158 6,899 6,697 6,779 6,901 1.8%
Pork /1 4,886 5,073 6,196 5,512 5,758 6,152 6.8%
Broiler and Turkey /2 6,846 7,561 8,285 8,016 8,348 8,328 -0.2%
Total 18,547 19,792 21,380 20,225 20,885 21,381 2.4%
Beef and Veal /1 7,502 7,570 7,490 7,322 7,609 7,747 1.8%
Pork /1 5,224 5,161 6,148 5,642 6,013 6,313 5.0%
Broiler and Turkey /2 7,113 7,957 9,069 8,750 9,337 9,453 1.2%
Total 19,839 20,688 22,707 21,714 22,959 23,513 2.4%
Beef and Veal /1 519 650 856 878 1,043 1,123 7.7%
Pork /1 1,359 1,425 2,117 1,857 1,917 2,121 10.6%
Broiler and Turkey /2 2,609 2,926 3,464 3,335 3,319 3,220 -3.0%
Total 4,487 5,001 6,437 6,070 6,279 6,464 2.9%
Beef and Veal /1 7% 9% 11% 12% 14% 14%
Pork /1 26% 28% 34% 33% 32% 34%
Broiler and Turkey /2 37% 37% 38% 38% 36% 34%
Combined 23% 24% 28% 28% 27% 27%
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. forecast
U.S. Exports
Summary:Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry
Production
Consumption
Note to Readers: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically.
1/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders
Imports
Exports
April 2011
BEEF AND VEAL: 2011 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW Tight Supplies to Persist as World Production Virtually Unchanged Australian production is revised slightly upward as improved pasture conditions generate heavier weights. Strong U.S. fed cattle prices and increased feeder cattle imports from Mexico are expected to drive slaughter higher than previously forecast, spurring increased production. Argentina is forecast lower due to heavier weights not offsetting a downward revision in slaughter. Conditions encourage producers to herd rebuilding. The historical Russian cattle and beef/veal data series is revised. Indian Exports Forecast to Escalate, Constraining Brazilian Expansion Exports
Strong export growth by India is expected to continue. This expansion, paired with a significant upward revision in the 2010 forecast, generates a substantially higher 2011 forecast. Comparatively low prices, a beneficial exchange rate, ample supplies and robust Southeast Asian and Middle East demand are spurring shipments. In addition to benefiting from increased market access and growing demand in key markets, India is better able to compete with Brazil due to its price competitiveness. As a result, India is expected to capture some market share from Brazil, the world’s leading exporter. Therefore, growth in Brazilian exports is revised significantly downward. The United States is forecast higher on a competitive dollar, strong Asian demand, and tight Oceania supplies. Improved Asian market access spurs an increase for Mexico. The EU is revised upward on ample supplies enabling shipments to Russia and the short-term sales to Turkey. Lower than expected production reduces Argentina, which are forecast less than half of the volume achieved just two years ago. Despite ample supplies, high prices cause Uruguay to struggle to expand shipments, generating a downward revision. Imports
A downward revision in the United States is driven by increased production, constrained consumption as economic recovery is slower than expected and a weaker dollar a relatively high-priced Oceania product hinders imports. Similarly, sluggish economic recovery and elevated prices hinder Mexican and EU imports. The EU is also negatively impacted by further reductions in Argentine exportable supplies. Korea is revised upward on lower production, reduced pork supplies and rising consumer confidence in U.S. beef.
April 2011
PORK: 2011 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW World Production Slightly Higher Chinese production is raised slightly from October’s forecast, as high pork prices and stronger demand encourage expansion by modern, more efficient producers. The EU is revised upward in line with higher than expected slaughter and weights. Restructuring in the hog industry is expected to accelerate, as the most inefficient farms and some backyard production leave the industry. Historical revisions were made to the Russian swine and pork data. High feed prices and limited feed availability in late 2010 constrained previously forecast expansion. South Korea is reduced by one third (the lowest level in nearly twenty years) as a result of the worst FMD outbreak in the country’s history. The culling of 30 percent of the swine herd, combined with the 2 to 3 month waiting period before restocking FMD-affected farms, will temporarily reduce the pig crop. The U.S. forecast is raised slightly due to higher expected slaughter and heavier weights. World Imports Raised Mostly on South Korea Shortages in South Korean domestic pork supplies are expected to be partially offset by a nearly 50 percent jump in expected imports. To facilitate those imports and help curb rising prices, the Korean government created a special zero duty tariff-rate-quota (TRQ) for frozen pork bellies and other cuts. Even with larger imports however, pork consumption is expected to fall, as high prices cause consumers to shift to other meat proteins such as fish, poultry, and imported red meats. China is raised as robust demand outpaces modest production gains. Ukraine is revised upward in response to stronger demand. World Exports Up as the EU and the United States Capture Rising Asian Demand EU is forecast significantly higher with strong demand from Asia and Russia. The EU will likely fill much of the Korean zero duty TRQ for frozen pork bellies, while expanded pork shipments to Russia are expected in place of live hogs for slaughter. The United States’ forecast is unchanged although stronger shipments are expected in the first half of the year due to strong demand from South Korea and China. Along with the EU, U.S. pork is expected to account for a portion of the Korean zero duty TRQ for pork cuts given its readily available supplies and strong price competitiveness.
April 2011
BROILER MEAT: 2011 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW World Production Expands
Russia’s historical data series is revised.
Forecasts for China, Brazil, and the EU are revised upward on rising domestic demand. In China, strong demand has stimulated production enabling producers to raise prices, which helps offset higher feed costs. In Brazil, growing disposable incomes, high beef prices, and strong exports support production expansion. The EU is revised slightly higher to meet slowly growing domestic demand.
The United States forecast is revised higher on heavier bird weights.
Argentina’s production is revised down on slower than anticipated industry expansion.
World Trade Virtually Unchanged Imports
The December announcement of a reduction in Russia’s TRQ resulted in a significant downward revision in Russia’s expected imports.
Mexico and the Philippines forecasts are raised on strong demand for mechanically deboned meat.
Some African markets are revised higher on strong demand, e.g. Angola, Benin, and South Africa.
The forecast for Saudi Arabia is increased as production gains are unable to keep pace with growing demand.
Japan is raised on increased demand and short-term disruption in production due to the tsunami and earthquake.
EU is revised lower on more stringent regulations.
China’s forecast is revised lower on continued antidumping and countervailing duties on U.S. product.
Exports
Greater exports by the EU, China, and Thailand are the result of higher demand from some Asian markets, particularly Japan and Vietnam. EU shipments are also bolstered by demand from African markets.
Exports from Brazil and Argentina are revised downward, but still remain at record levels.
U.S. exports are revised lower primarily on the reduced TRQ in Russia and market access issues in China.
April 2011
Beef and Veal Selected Countries
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
2011
Apr
none
Production
9,3659,4109,1158,9359,0249,303 Brazil
8,0007,8508,0857,9138,0908,188 EU-27
5,5005,4505,6005,7646,1326,134 China
2,9602,9202,8302,5142,5522,413 India
2,5002,5502,6003,3803,1503,300 Argentina
2,1402,0502,0872,1292,1592,172 Australia
1,7751,7751,7511,7001,6671,600 Mexico
1,4501,4501,4861,4571,3881,344 Pakistan
1,4001,2701,4351,4601,4901,430 Russia
1,2751,2751,2721,2521,2891,278 Canada
9,0479,1079,0148,9619,4969,359 Others
45,41245,10745,27545,46546,43746,521 Total Foreign
11,94611,55612,04811,89112,16312,097 United States
57,35856,66357,32357,35658,60058,618 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
8,1558,1808,1858,2628,3528,690 EU-27
7,8107,6457,5927,3747,2527,144 Brazil
5,4955,4415,5895,7496,0806,065 China
2,2962,2162,3072,3472,6162,452 Russia
2,2332,2552,3052,7272,7312,771 Argentina
1,9602,1951,9301,9051,8801,735 India
1,9552,0331,9441,9712,0331,961 Mexico
1,4551,4601,4911,4611,3941,363 Pakistan
1,2361,2101,2241,2111,1731,182 Japan
9909959991,0161,0361,068 Canada
11,03911,02610,93810,40610,97610,872 Others
44,62444,65644,50444,42945,52345,303 Total Foreign
11,86911,71512,04012,23912,45212,830 United States
56,49356,37156,54456,66857,97558,133 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.
2/ From 2009, Turkey is excluded.
3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
4/ Russian data reflects historical revisions except for the October forecast.
April 2011
Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
2011
Apr
none
Total Imports
9009508778951,1371,030 Russia
725704721697659686 Japan
450490436497466642 EU-27
400350366315295308 Korea, South
325305287133131103 Iran
300330296322408403 Mexico
27529027027020090 Vietnam
240245243247230242 Canada
220210290180166293 Egypt
200205190166129151 Chile
1,8521,8691,7611,7841,9271,826 Others
5,8875,9485,7375,5065,7485,774 Total Foreign
1,0141,1521,0421,1911,1511,384 United States
6,9017,1006,7796,6976,8997,158 Total
none
Total Exports
1,6001,8101,5581,5961,8012,189 Brazil
1,3501,3251,3681,3641,4071,400 Australia
1,000725900609672678 India
525530523480494457 Canada
478496530514533496 New Zealand
350390347376361385 Uruguay
310310296254233206 Paraguay
295160336148204140 EU-27
270300298655423534 Argentina
12072103514242 Mexico
326288307397464393 Others
6,6246,4066,5666,4446,6346,920 Total Foreign
1,1231,0021,043878856650 United States
7,7477,4087,6097,3227,4907,570 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.
2/ From 2009, Turkey is excluded.
3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
April 2011
Pork Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
2011
Apr
none
Production
52,50051,50051,07048,90546,20542,878 China
22,90022,12023,00022,43422,59622,858 EU-27
3,2753,2603,1953,1303,0152,990 Brazil
1,9102,3101,9201,8441,7361,640 Russia
1,9001,9001,8701,8501,8501,832 Vietnam
1,7451,7201,7721,7891,7861,746 Canada
1,2851,2901,2911,3101,2491,250 Japan
1,2601,2601,2551,2401,2251,250 Philippines
1,1951,1841,1651,1621,1611,152 Mexico
778778768779784828 Taiwan
5,5075,8665,7305,5145,5375,627 Others
94,25593,18893,03689,95787,14484,051 Total Foreign
10,25910,20410,18710,44210,5999,962 United States
104,514103,392103,223100,39997,74394,013 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
52,58051,59051,09748,82346,69142,710 China
21,17520,60021,27121,05721,02421,507 EU-27
2,7643,1592,7732,6882,7892,534 Russia
2,6462,6202,5772,4232,3902,260 Brazil
2,4972,4442,4852,4672,4862,473 Japan
1,9051,9001,8811,8761,8801,855 Vietnam
1,8051,7891,7741,7701,6051,523 Mexico
1,3701,5501,5391,4801,5191,502 Korea, South
1,3591,3601,3581,2981,2701,275 Philippines
879840795713828715 Ukraine
6,8656,7786,7506,6606,5656,530 Others
95,84594,63094,30091,25589,04784,884 Total Foreign
8,5478,4858,6539,0138,8068,965 United States
104,392103,115102,953100,26897,85393,849 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
2/ Russian data reflects historical revisions except for the October forecast.
April 2011
Pork Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
2011
Apr
none
Total Imports
1,2101,1571,1981,1381,2671,210 Japan
8558508548451,053894 Russia
695690687678535451 Mexico
600410382390430447 Korea, South
410370355270709182 China
360380347369346302 Hong Kong
220230183180194171 Canada
190205183176152141 Australia
15011014618623882 Ukraine
105100104979197 Singapore
944906929805804657 Others
5,7395,4085,3685,1345,8194,634 Total Foreign
413397390378377439 United States
6,1525,8055,7585,5126,1965,073 Total
none
Total Exports
1,7501,5501,7541,4151,7271,286 EU-27
1,1801,1751,1591,1231,1291,033 Canada
630640619707625730 Brazil
330280278232223350 China
140140130152142148 Chile
858578709180 Mexico
424041404854 Australia
151513131119 Vietnam
666312 Norway
333432 Croatia
111315263132 Others
4,1923,9474,0963,7854,0313,736 Total Foreign
2,1212,1211,9171,8572,1171,425 United States
6,3136,0686,0135,6426,1485,161 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
April 2011
Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
2011
Apr
none
Production
13,20013,00012,55012,10011,84011,291 China
12,92511,75012,31211,02311,03310,305 Brazil
9,1859,0009,0958,7568,5948,320 EU-27
2,8502,8502,8092,7812,8532,683 Mexico
2,7002,7002,6502,5502,4902,240 India
2,5202,1252,3102,0601,6801,410 Russia
1,7501,8001,6001,5001,4301,320 Argentina
1,6501,6501,6001,5251,4501,423 Iran
1,3801,3801,2801,2001,1701,050 Thailand
1,3001,3001,2901,2501,2401,159 South Africa
12,03112,01711,93211,61311,37711,098 Others
61,49159,57259,42856,35855,15752,299 Total Foreign
16,79216,63716,56315,93516,56116,226 United States
78,28376,20975,99172,29371,71868,525 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
12,99012,89012,45712,21011,95411,415 China
9,6168,3019,1328,0327,7927,384 Brazil
8,9208,8708,7798,6928,5648,358 EU-27
3,4143,3883,3443,2643,2813,061 Mexico
2,8872,7202,9232,9662,8342,630 Russia
2,6992,6992,6492,5492,4892,239 India
2,0902,0352,0631,9781,9261,945 Japan
1,7201,6801,6601,5421,4601,464 Iran
1,5301,5151,5141,4431,4281,394 South Africa
1,5091,5051,3951,3271,2701,200 Argentina
16,08415,95415,74814,91714,60613,636 Others
63,45961,55761,66458,92057,60454,726 Total Foreign
13,93013,67013,46312,94013,42813,582 United States
77,38975,22775,12771,86071,03268,308 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are excluded.
2/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
3/ Russian data reflects historical revisions except for the October forecast.
April 2011
Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
2011
Apr
none
Total Imports
820760789645737696 Japan
720680678605510470 Saudi Arabia
675710676719712673 EU-27
580550549492433380 Mexico
3756006189131,1591,222 Russia
325325295253236215 Hong Kong
325250291201211110 Vietnam
320340319374211176 Iraq
300315288297289238 United Arab Emirates
275300237181352163 Venezuela
3,2303,1263,2152,9332,9202,714 Others
7,9457,9567,9557,6137,7707,057 Total Foreign
444444393628 United States
7,9898,0007,9997,6527,8067,085 Total
none
Total Exports
3,3103,4503,1812,9923,2422,922 Brazil
940840992783742635 EU-27
475440432379383296 Thailand
440410379291285358 China
250300214178164125 Argentina
155155147147152139 Canada
807079876339 Chile
707070707060 Kuwait
3525331986 Ukraine
303026302725 Australia
15714816814412098 Others
5,9425,9385,7215,1205,2564,703 Total Foreign
2,9713,0163,0723,0933,1572,678 United States
8,9138,9548,7938,2138,4137,381 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are excluded.
2/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
April 2011
Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Production
1,7951,8151,7951,8301,7901,858 EU-27
510485466465458353 Brazil
167165167180170163 Canada
554540372519 Russia
151311151514 Mexico
888775 South Africa
665554 China
nrnrnrnr44 Others
2,5562,5372,4922,5392,4742,420 Total Foreign
2,4892,4842,5352,7962,6642,543 United States
5,0455,0215,0275,3355,1384,963 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
1,8051,8201,8011,8351,7691,841 EU-27
345321302261281197 Brazil
165158155212211197 Mexico
154148151163150144 Canada
657084102100110 Russia
343434384739 South Africa
313132503521 China
nrnrnrnr2323 Others
2,5992,5822,5592,6612,6162,572 Total Foreign
2,2382,2662,3602,4312,4012,295 United States
4,8374,8484,9195,0925,0174,867 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is excluded.
2/ 'nr' = 'no data'.
3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
4/ Data has NOT been revised since the October 2010 release.
April 2011
Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
none
Total Imports
150145144197196183 Mexico
115115112125103113 EU-27
262626314034 South Africa
252527453017 China
102541687591 Russia
888999 Canada
00001919 Others
334344358475472466 Total Foreign
556445 United States
339349364479476471 Total
none
Total Exports
165164164204177156 Brazil
105110106120124130 EU-27
212325252727 Canada
000000 Others
291297295349328313 Total Foreign
249247242307248248 United States
540544537656576561 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is excluded.
2/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
3/ Data has NOT been revised since the October 2010 release.
April 2011
Cattle Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
2011
Apr
none
Total Cattle Beg. Stks
320,600304,000316,400309,900304,418297,700 India
190,922191,000185,159179,540175,437173,830 Brazil
104,814105,060105,430105,722105,948104,651 China
87,25087,50088,30088,83789,04388,463 EU-27
48,45648,65649,05754,26055,66255,664 Argentina
31,84731,87131,17130,77530,09529,262 Colombia
28,00028,28027,90727,32128,04028,400 Australia
21,49621,69722,19222,66622,85023,316 Mexico
20,00016,91920,67721,04021,54621,562 Russia
12,77112,77113,12613,26913,51513,831 Venezuela
51,98451,90853,25571,78382,46488,617 Others
918,140899,662912,674925,113929,018925,296 Total Foreign
92,58292,55093,88194,52196,03596,573 United States
1,010,722992,2121,006,5551,019,6341,025,0531,021,869 Total
none
Production (Calf Crop)
62,00062,00061,50061,00060,50060,000 India
49,30049,25049,20049,15049,05048,845 Brazil
40,90040,85041,50042,57645,36045,353 China
29,80029,70029,95030,10030,85031,500 EU-27
13,00013,20011,80012,00014,90015,900 Argentina
9,8929,7509,30710,1459,0799,369 Australia
7,1507,1257,0006,8756,7546,732 Mexico
6,7766,8406,9527,3897,5867,965 Russia
5,6755,6755,6755,6755,6705,750 Colombia
4,6754,5504,8864,9585,3285,515 Canada
15,08515,05714,29519,62723,52624,660 Others
244,253243,997242,065249,495258,603261,589 Total Foreign
35,25535,17535,68535,93936,15336,759 United States
279,508279,172277,750285,434294,756298,348 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.
2/ From 2008, Philippines is excluded.
From 2009, Turkey is excluded.
From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.
3/ Data for 2009 is preliminary. Data for 2010 is forecast.
4/ Russian data reflects historical revisions except for the October forecast.
April 2011
Cattle Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
2011
Apr
none
Total Imports
610550606432304384 Venezuela
200200140451730 Egypt
1007085471515 China
858568657010 Brazil
555555544954 Canada
353538495875 Russia
303025209081 Mexico
171716162025 Japan
121544 EU-27
100000 Korea, South
111103134222 Others
1,1351,0451,035836761900 Total Foreign
2,3002,1002,2842,0022,2842,495 United States
3,4353,1453,3192,8383,0453,395 Total
none
Total Exports
1,3001,0001,2219807381,089 Mexico
1,0001,1001,0651,0671,5981,412 Canada
850850875954869719 Australia
752600655530414438 Brazil
550450623403376387 EU-27
18518522720716946 Uruguay
303136293351 China
302027131728 New Zealand
2502459136 Colombia
111322 Argentina
1111109592 Others
4,7244,2384,7554,3014,3204,400 Total Foreign
9070895810766 United States
4,8144,3084,8444,3594,4274,466 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.
2/ From 2008, Philippines is excluded.
From 2009, Turkey is excluded.
From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.
3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
April 2011
Swine Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
2011
Apr
none
Total Beginning Stocks
477,200468,507469,960462,913439,895418,504 China
150,400151,150152,198153,067159,732161,526 EU-27
36,94737,40135,12233,89232,94733,147 Brazil
17,20020,32517,23616,16516,34016,185 Russia
11,91011,35711,83512,18013,81014,907 Canada
10,50010,9429,8859,9129,4019,021 Mexico
9,8009,70010,0009,8999,7459,759 Japan
8,4499,1018,7218,2238,7428,518 Korea, South
8,4008,4007,5776,5267,0208,055 Ukraine
2,3502,4502,3022,4122,6052,733 Australia
nrnrnrnr2,39851,522 Others
733,156729,333724,836715,189702,635733,877 Total Foreign
64,62564,45064,88767,14868,17762,516 United States
797,781793,783789,723782,337770,812796,393 Total
none
Production (Pig Crop)
689,000661,000677,800655,620636,817592,080 China
257,500257,800260,000257,700258,400265,100 EU-27
38,45039,15037,26535,89034,84534,530 Brazil
29,55045,65029,47228,79826,64726,232 Russia
28,17027,40028,50329,29731,08531,835 Canada
17,40017,30017,50017,70016,96017,050 Japan
16,15016,16816,00715,96615,92415,767 Mexico
11,12715,49714,92314,91613,79214,422 Korea, South
9,1609,1608,7007,4006,6196,986 Ukraine
4,7504,8504,6864,4674,4775,480 Australia
nrnrnrnr5,03084,356 Others
1,101,2571,093,9751,094,8561,067,7541,050,5961,093,838 Total Foreign
113,736115,220113,349114,542115,030112,873 United States
1,214,9931,209,1951,208,2051,182,2961,165,6261,206,711 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ nr = no record
2/ From 2008, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are excluded.
From 2009, Chile is excluded.
3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
4/ Russian data reflects historical revisions except for the October forecast.
April 2011
Swine Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oct
2011
Apr
none
Total Imports
7604007051,202770377 Russia
505050768612 Ukraine
1222023 Korea, South
10266123 China
9129780136 Mexico
342322 EU-27
223322 Canada
111100 Japan
000022 Others
8474737781,298956537 Total Foreign
5,8505,9005,7496,3659,34810,004 United States
6,6976,3736,5277,66310,30410,541 Total
none
Total Exports
5,8505,9005,7616,3769,35710,032 Canada
1,6001,6501,6162,2101,508901 EU-27
1,5951,6751,6361,6021,6451,609 China
111101 Russia
001113 Others
9,0469,2269,01510,19012,51112,546 Total Foreign
2020242197137 United States
9,0669,2469,03910,21112,60812,683 Total
Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.
Notes: 1/ From 2008, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are excluded.
From 2009, Chile is excluded.
2/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.
April 2011
Beef and Veal: Per Capita Consumption (CWE) Selected Countries
Kilograms Per Person
2007 2008 2009 2010
Oct
2011
Apr
2011
Per Capita Consumption none
69.2 Argentina 67.5 66.7 55.8 54.0 53.5
34.7 Australia 35.0 35.0 35.3 34.2 35.1
36.8 Brazil 36.9 37.1 37.8 37.6 38.4
32.4 Canada 31.2 30.3 29.6 29.2 29.1
23.3 Chile 21.9 22.5 23.6 25.9 24.0
4.6 China 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0
16.7 Colombia 15.2 18.0 19.2 19.0 19.0
17.7 EU-27 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.5
8.7 Egypt 6.7 6.8 7.7 6.6 6.7
15.0 Hong Kong 18.9 24.0 23.8 32.3 23.9
1.5 India 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6
7.3 Iran 7.7 7.6 9.8 10.0 10.3
9.3 Japan 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.8
27.1 Kazakhstan 27.3 26.7 26.8 26.5 27.0
10.8 Korea, South 11.1 11.3 12.5 12.9 13.5
17.9 Mexico 18.3 17.6 17.2 17.8 17.1
29.8 New Zealand 29.5 28.5 29.2 28.0 28.0
8.1 Pakistan 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.1
26.2 Paraguay 31.9 35.3 35.6 37.0 35.6
3.9 Philippines 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.8
17.3 Russia 18.6 16.8 16.6 15.7 16.5
14.5 South Africa 14.0 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.1
4.7 Taiwan 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.4 5.5
10.9 Ukraine 10.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4
42.6 United States 41.0 39.8 38.8 37.4 37.9
51.7 Uruguay 50.6 58.4 62.1 53.9 61.0
20.4 Uzbekistan 21.5 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.7
20.8 Venezuela 23.1 18.8 18.2 18.8 17.5
Note: May include meat of other bovines
April 2011
Pork: Per Capita Consumption (CWE) Selected Countries
Kilograms Per Person
2007 2008 2009 2010
Oct
2011
Apr
2011
Per Capita Consumption none
6.2 Argentina 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.9
22.2 Australia 21.7 22.0 22.5 22.3 23.2
39.1 Belarus 44.9 42.1 47.5 43.0 47.7
26.6 Canada 25.5 25.5 23.9 23.1 23.4
20.0 Chile 20.8 22.2 23.0 22.8 22.8
32.3 China 35.1 36.5 37.9 38.0 38.8
3.9 Colombia 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.1
43.8 EU-27 42.8 42.8 43.2 41.8 43.0
61.5 Hong Kong 65.0 68.9 65.7 70.3 67.5
19.4 Japan 19.5 19.4 19.6 19.3 19.7
13.5 Kazakhstan 14.0 14.4 14.8 14.8 14.9
31.1 Korea, South 31.4 30.5 31.6 31.8 28.1
14.0 Mexico 14.6 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.9
21.3 New Zealand 20.4 21.4 21.2 21.2 21.2
27.2 Norway 26.1 25.3 25.0 25.1 25.1
17.9 Russia 19.8 19.2 19.9 22.8 19.9
3.7 South Africa 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7
33.6 Switzerland 33.5 33.3 33.1 33.1 33.1
36.9 Taiwan 35.7 36.9 35.8 36.0 36.3
15.4 Ukraine 18.0 15.6 17.5 18.6 19.5
29.8 United States 29.0 29.3 27.9 27.1 27.3
5.0 Venezuela 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.8
21.4 Vietnam 21.5 21.2 21.0 21.0 21.0
April 2011
Broiler Meat: Per Capita Consumption Selected Countries
Kilograms Per Person, Ready to Cook Equivalent
2007 2008 2009 2010
Oct
2011
Apr
2011
Per Capita Consumption none
30.0 Argentina 31.4 32.4 33.7 36.0 36.1
33.9 Australia 34.7 35.0 35.5 35.5 35.5
38.1 Brazil 39.7 40.4 45.4 40.8 47.3
29.9 Canada 30.0 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.8
29.6 Chile 28.3 28.9 31.3 32.0 31.7
8.6 China 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.6
22.3 Colombia 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.0 24.1
17.0 EU-27 17.4 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.1
36.1 Hong Kong 36.2 37.3 43.0 47.0 47.0
2.0 India 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3
3.5 Indonesia 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8
22.4 Iran 22.2 23.2 24.8 24.8 25.4
15.3 Japan 15.1 15.6 16.3 16.1 16.5
12.9 Korea, South 12.7 14.0 15.3 15.1 15.5
50.7 Kuwait 65.8 75.4 59.9 65.8 58.9
38.9 Malaysia 38.6 37.7 37.3 37.2 37.2
28.2 Mexico 29.8 29.3 29.7 29.8 30.0
7.2 Philippines 7.6 7.9 8.4 8.1 8.4
18.6 Russia 20.1 21.2 21.0 19.6 20.8
36.8 Saudi Arabia 37.6 40.6 42.6 42.4 43.8
28.8 South Africa 29.3 29.4 30.8 30.9 31.2
26.3 Taiwan 25.7 25.2 28.0 27.1 27.1
12.4 Thailand 11.9 12.3 12.5 13.3 12.8
13.2 Ukraine 17.7 17.1 17.2 17.8 17.1
54.9 United Arab Emirates 63.8 63.1 59.1 62.3 59.4
45.1 United States 44.2 42.1 43.4 43.6 44.5
32.3 Venezuela 36.6 29.9 30.0 31.1 30.2
5.2 Vietnam 6.4 6.1 7.2 6.6 7.5
10.3 Yemen 9.9 11.0 10.9 9.8 10.8
Note: Middle East consumption is likely to be overstated due to transshipments in the region and temporary workers not included in
population statistics.
April 2011
Notes to Readers
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview. Data Modifications Cattle/Beef:
• India – Based historical review, PSDs for cattle and beef are revised from 1996 to present. • Russia – Based on additional analysis and information, PSDs for cattle and beef are revised
from 1988 to present.
Swine/Pork: • Russia – Based on additional analysis and information, PSDs for swine and pork are revised
from 1988 to present. Broiler Meat:
• Russia – Based on additional analysis and information, PSDs for broiler meat are revised from 1990 to present.
• Yemen – Production has been revised from 2002 onwards based on newly available information.
Turkey Meat:
• Data has not been revised since the October 2010 release. Conversion Rates
Beef &Veal Pork Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201
Frozen: 0202 Processed: 021020 & 160250
Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319 Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329 Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249
Broiler Meat Turkey Meat Conversion Rate 1 1 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13
Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14 Processed and Salted: 1602.32,
0210.99
Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26, 0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35
Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36 Processed: 1602.31
Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded.
April 2011
Assumptions
• BSE: Forecast assumes a continuation of trade policies due to BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) currently in place by U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of October 9, 2010.
• Other Diseases (AI, H1N1, FMD): Forecast reflects policies currently in place as a result of outbreaks as of April 8, 2011.
Technical Notes
CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. FAS Reports from Overseas Offices
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since January 2011 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp. PSD Online
The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be reached through http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline. Additional Resources
Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp for additional data and analysis. Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/. Future Releases and Contact Information
Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp to view archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in October 2011. Questions may be directed to the following staff:
Lesley Ahmed (202) 720-2781
[email protected] Swine and Pork
Anneke Gustafson (202) 720-7285 [email protected] Poultry (Broiler, Turkey and Other Poultry products)
Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Cattle and Beef
Lazaro Sandoval (202) 690-8478
[email protected] Other animals and meat (horse, sheep, etc), Animal by products (rendered products, hide/skins)
April 2011