Service April 2011 1 Trade Forecast Update: Pork …...2011/04/13 · April 2011 1 Trade Forecast Update: Pork Higher; Beef and Broiler Meat Stable Beef p roduction is virtually unchanged

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

April 2011 2011 Trade Forecast Update:

Pork Higher; Beef and Broiler Meat Stable

Beef production is virtually unchanged since the last forecast in October 2010 and tight supplies and high prices continue to constrain significant trade expansion. Amidst this environment, the revised trade forecast calls for a shift in gains expected among exporters as supplies, prices and exchange rates impact competitiveness particularly in Middle East and Southeast Asia markets. Increases in shipments are now expected to be largely captured by up-and-coming supplier India rather than Brazil, the world’s leading exporter. Demand in many key markets is largely dependent on the pace of economic recovery. Record global pork production is largely a function of efficiency gains in China, and higher slaughter weights in the EU, which are expected to more than offset the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) related drop in South Korea. Expanded world trade is driven by strong demand from South Korea, China, and the Ukraine. Broiler meat production is forecast to expand on stronger demand and tight supplies of beef and pork in most major producing countries. World trade remains virtually unchanged. Russia’s December announcement of a 42 percent decline in the tariff rate quota (TRQ) volume to 350,000 metric tons resulted in a significant downward revision to its import forecast. Chinese imports are forecast lower as reduced U.S. shipments (as a result of market access issues) more than offsets higher shipments from South America. Brazilian and U.S. exports are revised lower, offsetting larger exports from the EU and China on strong demand from Asian and African markets.

Note: Data in this document reflects the PSD (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline) and WASDE release of April 8, 2011.

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline�

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

April 2011

Contents

Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry 2011 Forecast Overviews

Beef Pork Poultry Turkey

Summary Tables Beef Summary Table Pork Summary Table

Broiler Meat Summary Table Turkey Meat Summary Table

Cattle Summary Table Swine Summary Table

Per Capita Consumption Summary Selected Countries

Beef Pork

Broiler

Notes to Readers

April 2011

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (p) 2011 (f)

Percent Change 2010 to

2011

Beef and Veal /1 57,751 58,618 58,600 57,356 57,323 57,358 0.1%

Pork /1 95,377 94,013 97,743 100,399 103,223 104,514 1.3%

Broiler and Turkey /2 69,464 73,663 77,053 77,320 81,012 83,328 2.9%

Total 222,592 226,294 233,396 235,075 241,558 245,200 1.5%

Beef and Veal /1 56,994 58,133 57,975 56,668 56,544 56,493 -0.1%

Pork /1 95,109 93,849 97,853 100,268 102,953 104,392 1.4%

Broiler & Turkey /2 69,251 73,325 76,124 76,779 79,975 82,226 2.8%

Total 221,354 225,307 231,952 233,715 239,472 243,111 1.5%

Beef and Veal /1 6,815 7,158 6,899 6,697 6,779 6,901 1.8%

Pork /1 4,886 5,073 6,196 5,512 5,758 6,152 6.8%

Broiler and Turkey /2 6,846 7,561 8,285 8,016 8,348 8,328 -0.2%

Total 18,547 19,792 21,380 20,225 20,885 21,381 2.4%

Beef and Veal /1 7,502 7,570 7,490 7,322 7,609 7,747 1.8%

Pork /1 5,224 5,161 6,148 5,642 6,013 6,313 5.0%

Broiler and Turkey /2 7,113 7,957 9,069 8,750 9,337 9,453 1.2%

Total 19,839 20,688 22,707 21,714 22,959 23,513 2.4%

Beef and Veal /1 519 650 856 878 1,043 1,123 7.7%

Pork /1 1,359 1,425 2,117 1,857 1,917 2,121 10.6%

Broiler and Turkey /2 2,609 2,926 3,464 3,335 3,319 3,220 -3.0%

Total 4,487 5,001 6,437 6,070 6,279 6,464 2.9%

Beef and Veal /1 7% 9% 11% 12% 14% 14%

Pork /1 26% 28% 34% 33% 32% 34%

Broiler and Turkey /2 37% 37% 38% 38% 36% 34%

Combined 23% 24% 28% 28% 27% 27%

Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research. forecast

U.S. Exports

Summary:Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry

Production

Consumption

Note to Readers: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically.

1/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders

Imports

Exports

April 2011

BEEF AND VEAL: 2011 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW Tight Supplies to Persist as World Production Virtually Unchanged Australian production is revised slightly upward as improved pasture conditions generate heavier weights. Strong U.S. fed cattle prices and increased feeder cattle imports from Mexico are expected to drive slaughter higher than previously forecast, spurring increased production. Argentina is forecast lower due to heavier weights not offsetting a downward revision in slaughter. Conditions encourage producers to herd rebuilding. The historical Russian cattle and beef/veal data series is revised. Indian Exports Forecast to Escalate, Constraining Brazilian Expansion Exports

Strong export growth by India is expected to continue. This expansion, paired with a significant upward revision in the 2010 forecast, generates a substantially higher 2011 forecast. Comparatively low prices, a beneficial exchange rate, ample supplies and robust Southeast Asian and Middle East demand are spurring shipments. In addition to benefiting from increased market access and growing demand in key markets, India is better able to compete with Brazil due to its price competitiveness. As a result, India is expected to capture some market share from Brazil, the world’s leading exporter. Therefore, growth in Brazilian exports is revised significantly downward. The United States is forecast higher on a competitive dollar, strong Asian demand, and tight Oceania supplies. Improved Asian market access spurs an increase for Mexico. The EU is revised upward on ample supplies enabling shipments to Russia and the short-term sales to Turkey. Lower than expected production reduces Argentina, which are forecast less than half of the volume achieved just two years ago. Despite ample supplies, high prices cause Uruguay to struggle to expand shipments, generating a downward revision. Imports

A downward revision in the United States is driven by increased production, constrained consumption as economic recovery is slower than expected and a weaker dollar a relatively high-priced Oceania product hinders imports. Similarly, sluggish economic recovery and elevated prices hinder Mexican and EU imports. The EU is also negatively impacted by further reductions in Argentine exportable supplies. Korea is revised upward on lower production, reduced pork supplies and rising consumer confidence in U.S. beef.

April 2011

PORK: 2011 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW World Production Slightly Higher Chinese production is raised slightly from October’s forecast, as high pork prices and stronger demand encourage expansion by modern, more efficient producers. The EU is revised upward in line with higher than expected slaughter and weights. Restructuring in the hog industry is expected to accelerate, as the most inefficient farms and some backyard production leave the industry. Historical revisions were made to the Russian swine and pork data. High feed prices and limited feed availability in late 2010 constrained previously forecast expansion. South Korea is reduced by one third (the lowest level in nearly twenty years) as a result of the worst FMD outbreak in the country’s history. The culling of 30 percent of the swine herd, combined with the 2 to 3 month waiting period before restocking FMD-affected farms, will temporarily reduce the pig crop. The U.S. forecast is raised slightly due to higher expected slaughter and heavier weights. World Imports Raised Mostly on South Korea Shortages in South Korean domestic pork supplies are expected to be partially offset by a nearly 50 percent jump in expected imports. To facilitate those imports and help curb rising prices, the Korean government created a special zero duty tariff-rate-quota (TRQ) for frozen pork bellies and other cuts. Even with larger imports however, pork consumption is expected to fall, as high prices cause consumers to shift to other meat proteins such as fish, poultry, and imported red meats. China is raised as robust demand outpaces modest production gains. Ukraine is revised upward in response to stronger demand. World Exports Up as the EU and the United States Capture Rising Asian Demand EU is forecast significantly higher with strong demand from Asia and Russia. The EU will likely fill much of the Korean zero duty TRQ for frozen pork bellies, while expanded pork shipments to Russia are expected in place of live hogs for slaughter. The United States’ forecast is unchanged although stronger shipments are expected in the first half of the year due to strong demand from South Korea and China. Along with the EU, U.S. pork is expected to account for a portion of the Korean zero duty TRQ for pork cuts given its readily available supplies and strong price competitiveness.

April 2011

BROILER MEAT: 2011 REVISED FORECAST OVERVIEW World Production Expands

Russia’s historical data series is revised.

Forecasts for China, Brazil, and the EU are revised upward on rising domestic demand. In China, strong demand has stimulated production enabling producers to raise prices, which helps offset higher feed costs. In Brazil, growing disposable incomes, high beef prices, and strong exports support production expansion. The EU is revised slightly higher to meet slowly growing domestic demand.

The United States forecast is revised higher on heavier bird weights.

Argentina’s production is revised down on slower than anticipated industry expansion.

World Trade Virtually Unchanged Imports

The December announcement of a reduction in Russia’s TRQ resulted in a significant downward revision in Russia’s expected imports.

Mexico and the Philippines forecasts are raised on strong demand for mechanically deboned meat.

Some African markets are revised higher on strong demand, e.g. Angola, Benin, and South Africa.

The forecast for Saudi Arabia is increased as production gains are unable to keep pace with growing demand.

Japan is raised on increased demand and short-term disruption in production due to the tsunami and earthquake.

EU is revised lower on more stringent regulations.

China’s forecast is revised lower on continued antidumping and countervailing duties on U.S. product.

Exports

Greater exports by the EU, China, and Thailand are the result of higher demand from some Asian markets, particularly Japan and Vietnam. EU shipments are also bolstered by demand from African markets.

Exports from Brazil and Argentina are revised downward, but still remain at record levels.

U.S. exports are revised lower primarily on the reduced TRQ in Russia and market access issues in China.

April 2011

Beef and Veal Selected Countries

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

2011

Apr

none

Production

9,3659,4109,1158,9359,0249,303 Brazil

8,0007,8508,0857,9138,0908,188 EU-27

5,5005,4505,6005,7646,1326,134 China

2,9602,9202,8302,5142,5522,413 India

2,5002,5502,6003,3803,1503,300 Argentina

2,1402,0502,0872,1292,1592,172 Australia

1,7751,7751,7511,7001,6671,600 Mexico

1,4501,4501,4861,4571,3881,344 Pakistan

1,4001,2701,4351,4601,4901,430 Russia

1,2751,2751,2721,2521,2891,278 Canada

9,0479,1079,0148,9619,4969,359 Others

45,41245,10745,27545,46546,43746,521 Total Foreign

11,94611,55612,04811,89112,16312,097 United States

57,35856,66357,32357,35658,60058,618 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

8,1558,1808,1858,2628,3528,690 EU-27

7,8107,6457,5927,3747,2527,144 Brazil

5,4955,4415,5895,7496,0806,065 China

2,2962,2162,3072,3472,6162,452 Russia

2,2332,2552,3052,7272,7312,771 Argentina

1,9602,1951,9301,9051,8801,735 India

1,9552,0331,9441,9712,0331,961 Mexico

1,4551,4601,4911,4611,3941,363 Pakistan

1,2361,2101,2241,2111,1731,182 Japan

9909959991,0161,0361,068 Canada

11,03911,02610,93810,40610,97610,872 Others

44,62444,65644,50444,42945,52345,303 Total Foreign

11,86911,71512,04012,23912,45212,830 United States

56,49356,37156,54456,66857,97558,133 Total

Source: USDA-FAS attache reports, official statistics, and results of office research.

Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.

2/ From 2009, Turkey is excluded.

3/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.

4/ Russian data reflects historical revisions except for the October forecast.

April 2011

Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

2011

Apr

none

Total Imports

9009508778951,1371,030 Russia

725704721697659686 Japan

450490436497466642 EU-27

400350366315295308 Korea, South

325305287133131103 Iran

300330296322408403 Mexico

27529027027020090 Vietnam

240245243247230242 Canada

220210290180166293 Egypt

200205190166129151 Chile

1,8521,8691,7611,7841,9271,826 Others

5,8875,9485,7375,5065,7485,774 Total Foreign

1,0141,1521,0421,1911,1511,384 United States

6,9017,1006,7796,6976,8997,158 Total

none

Total Exports

1,6001,8101,5581,5961,8012,189 Brazil

1,3501,3251,3681,3641,4071,400 Australia

1,000725900609672678 India

525530523480494457 Canada

478496530514533496 New Zealand

350390347376361385 Uruguay

310310296254233206 Paraguay

295160336148204140 EU-27

270300298655423534 Argentina

12072103514242 Mexico

326288307397464393 Others

6,6246,4066,5666,4446,6346,920 Total Foreign

1,1231,0021,043878856650 United States

7,7477,4087,6097,3227,4907,570 Total


Notes: 1/ May contain meat of other bovines.

2/ From 2009, Turkey is excluded.


April 2011

Pork Selected Countries Summary


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

2011

Apr

none

Production

52,50051,50051,07048,90546,20542,878 China

22,90022,12023,00022,43422,59622,858 EU-27

3,2753,2603,1953,1303,0152,990 Brazil

1,9102,3101,9201,8441,7361,640 Russia

1,9001,9001,8701,8501,8501,832 Vietnam

1,7451,7201,7721,7891,7861,746 Canada

1,2851,2901,2911,3101,2491,250 Japan

1,2601,2601,2551,2401,2251,250 Philippines

1,1951,1841,1651,1621,1611,152 Mexico

778778768779784828 Taiwan

5,5075,8665,7305,5145,5375,627 Others

94,25593,18893,03689,95787,14484,051 Total Foreign

10,25910,20410,18710,44210,5999,962 United States

104,514103,392103,223100,39997,74394,013 Total

none


52,58051,59051,09748,82346,69142,710 China

21,17520,60021,27121,05721,02421,507 EU-27

2,7643,1592,7732,6882,7892,534 Russia

2,6462,6202,5772,4232,3902,260 Brazil

2,4972,4442,4852,4672,4862,473 Japan

1,9051,9001,8811,8761,8801,855 Vietnam

1,8051,7891,7741,7701,6051,523 Mexico

1,3701,5501,5391,4801,5191,502 Korea, South

1,3591,3601,3581,2981,2701,275 Philippines

879840795713828715 Ukraine

6,8656,7786,7506,6606,5656,530 Others

95,84594,63094,30091,25589,04784,884 Total Foreign

8,5478,4858,6539,0138,8068,965 United States

104,392103,115102,953100,26897,85393,849 Total


Notes: 1/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.


April 2011

Pork Selected Countries Summary


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

2011

Apr

none

Total Imports

1,2101,1571,1981,1381,2671,210 Japan

8558508548451,053894 Russia

695690687678535451 Mexico

600410382390430447 Korea, South

410370355270709182 China

360380347369346302 Hong Kong

220230183180194171 Canada

190205183176152141 Australia

15011014618623882 Ukraine

105100104979197 Singapore

944906929805804657 Others

5,7395,4085,3685,1345,8194,634 Total Foreign

413397390378377439 United States

6,1525,8055,7585,5126,1965,073 Total

none

Total Exports

1,7501,5501,7541,4151,7271,286 EU-27

1,1801,1751,1591,1231,1291,033 Canada

630640619707625730 Brazil

330280278232223350 China

140140130152142148 Chile

858578709180 Mexico

424041404854 Australia

151513131119 Vietnam

666312 Norway

333432 Croatia

111315263132 Others

4,1923,9474,0963,7854,0313,736 Total Foreign

2,1212,1211,9171,8572,1171,425 United States

6,3136,0686,0135,6426,1485,161 Total


Notes: 1/ Data for 2010 is preliminary. Data for 2011 is forecast.

April 2011

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

2011

Apr

none

Production

13,20013,00012,55012,10011,84011,291 China

12,92511,75012,31211,02311,03310,305 Brazil

9,1859,0009,0958,7568,5948,320 EU-27

2,8502,8502,8092,7812,8532,683 Mexico

2,7002,7002,6502,5502,4902,240 India

2,5202,1252,3102,0601,6801,410 Russia

1,7501,8001,6001,5001,4301,320 Argentina

1,6501,6501,6001,5251,4501,423 Iran

1,3801,3801,2801,2001,1701,050 Thailand

1,3001,3001,2901,2501,2401,159 South Africa

12,03112,01711,93211,61311,37711,098 Others

61,49159,57259,42856,35855,15752,299 Total Foreign

16,79216,63716,56315,93516,56116,226 United States

78,28376,20975,99172,29371,71868,525 Total

none


12,99012,89012,45712,21011,95411,415 China

9,6168,3019,1328,0327,7927,384 Brazil

8,9208,8708,7798,6928,5648,358 EU-27

3,4143,3883,3443,2643,2813,061 Mexico

2,8872,7202,9232,9662,8342,630 Russia

2,6992,6992,6492,5492,4892,239 India

2,0902,0352,0631,9781,9261,945 Japan

1,7201,6801,6601,5421,4601,464 Iran

1,5301,5151,5141,4431,4281,394 South Africa

1,5091,5051,3951,3271,2701,200 Argentina

16,08415,95415,74814,91714,60613,636 Others

63,45961,55761,66458,92057,60454,726 Total Foreign

13,93013,67013,46312,94013,42813,582 United States

77,38975,22775,12771,86071,03268,308 Total


Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are excluded.



April 2011

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

2011

Apr

none

Total Imports

820760789645737696 Japan

720680678605510470 Saudi Arabia

675710676719712673 EU-27

580550549492433380 Mexico

3756006189131,1591,222 Russia

325325295253236215 Hong Kong

325250291201211110 Vietnam

320340319374211176 Iraq

300315288297289238 United Arab Emirates

275300237181352163 Venezuela

3,2303,1263,2152,9332,9202,714 Others

7,9457,9567,9557,6137,7707,057 Total Foreign

444444393628 United States

7,9898,0007,9997,6527,8067,085 Total

none

Total Exports

3,3103,4503,1812,9923,2422,922 Brazil

940840992783742635 EU-27

475440432379383296 Thailand

440410379291285358 China

250300214178164125 Argentina

155155147147152139 Canada

807079876339 Chile

707070707060 Kuwait

3525331986 Ukraine

303026302725 Australia

15714816814412098 Others

5,9425,9385,7215,1205,2564,703 Total Foreign

2,9713,0163,0723,0933,1572,678 United States

8,9138,9548,7938,2138,4137,381 Total


Notes: 1/ Chicken paws are excluded.


April 2011

Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

none

Production

1,7951,8151,7951,8301,7901,858 EU-27

510485466465458353 Brazil

167165167180170163 Canada

554540372519 Russia

151311151514 Mexico

888775 South Africa

665554 China

nrnrnrnr44 Others

2,5562,5372,4922,5392,4742,420 Total Foreign

2,4892,4842,5352,7962,6642,543 United States

5,0455,0215,0275,3355,1384,963 Total

none


1,8051,8201,8011,8351,7691,841 EU-27

345321302261281197 Brazil

165158155212211197 Mexico

154148151163150144 Canada

657084102100110 Russia

343434384739 South Africa

313132503521 China

nrnrnrnr2323 Others

2,5992,5822,5592,6612,6162,572 Total Foreign

2,2382,2662,3602,4312,4012,295 United States

4,8374,8484,9195,0925,0174,867 Total


Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is excluded.

2/ 'nr' = 'no data'.


4/ Data has NOT been revised since the October 2010 release.

April 2011

Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

none

Total Imports

150145144197196183 Mexico

115115112125103113 EU-27

262626314034 South Africa

252527453017 China

102541687591 Russia

888999 Canada

00001919 Others

334344358475472466 Total Foreign


339349364479476471 Total

none

Total Exports

165164164204177156 Brazil

105110106120124130 EU-27

212325252727 Canada

000000 Others

291297295349328313 Total Foreign

249247242307248248 United States

540544537656576561 Total


Notes: 1/ From 2008, Taiwan is excluded.


3/ Data has NOT been revised since the October 2010 release.

April 2011

Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

2011

Apr

none

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

320,600304,000316,400309,900304,418297,700 India

190,922191,000185,159179,540175,437173,830 Brazil

104,814105,060105,430105,722105,948104,651 China

87,25087,50088,30088,83789,04388,463 EU-27

48,45648,65649,05754,26055,66255,664 Argentina

31,84731,87131,17130,77530,09529,262 Colombia

28,00028,28027,90727,32128,04028,400 Australia

21,49621,69722,19222,66622,85023,316 Mexico

20,00016,91920,67721,04021,54621,562 Russia

12,77112,77113,12613,26913,51513,831 Venezuela

51,98451,90853,25571,78382,46488,617 Others

918,140899,662912,674925,113929,018925,296 Total Foreign

92,58292,55093,88194,52196,03596,573 United States

1,010,722992,2121,006,5551,019,6341,025,0531,021,869 Total

none

Production (Calf Crop)

62,00062,00061,50061,00060,50060,000 India

49,30049,25049,20049,15049,05048,845 Brazil

40,90040,85041,50042,57645,36045,353 China

29,80029,70029,95030,10030,85031,500 EU-27

13,00013,20011,80012,00014,90015,900 Argentina

9,8929,7509,30710,1459,0799,369 Australia

7,1507,1257,0006,8756,7546,732 Mexico

6,7766,8406,9527,3897,5867,965 Russia

5,6755,6755,6755,6755,6705,750 Colombia

4,6754,5504,8864,9585,3285,515 Canada

15,08515,05714,29519,62723,52624,660 Others

244,253243,997242,065249,495258,603261,589 Total Foreign

35,25535,17535,68535,93936,15336,759 United States

279,508279,172277,750285,434294,756298,348 Total


Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.

2/ From 2008, Philippines is excluded.

From 2009, Turkey is excluded.

From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.



April 2011

Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

2011

Apr

none

Total Imports

610550606432304384 Venezuela

200200140451730 Egypt

1007085471515 China

858568657010 Brazil

555555544954 Canada

353538495875 Russia

303025209081 Mexico

171716162025 Japan

121544 EU-27

100000 Korea, South

111103134222 Others

1,1351,0451,035836761900 Total Foreign

2,3002,1002,2842,0022,2842,495 United States

3,4353,1453,3192,8383,0453,395 Total

none

Total Exports

1,3001,0001,2219807381,089 Mexico

1,0001,1001,0651,0671,5981,412 Canada

850850875954869719 Australia

752600655530414438 Brazil

550450623403376387 EU-27

18518522720716946 Uruguay

303136293351 China

302027131728 New Zealand

2502459136 Colombia

111322 Argentina

1111109592 Others

4,7244,2384,7554,3014,3204,400 Total Foreign


4,8144,3084,8444,3594,4274,466 Total


Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.

2/ From 2008, Philippines is excluded.

From 2009, Turkey is excluded.

From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.


April 2011

Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

2011

Apr

none

Total Beginning Stocks

477,200468,507469,960462,913439,895418,504 China

150,400151,150152,198153,067159,732161,526 EU-27

36,94737,40135,12233,89232,94733,147 Brazil

17,20020,32517,23616,16516,34016,185 Russia

11,91011,35711,83512,18013,81014,907 Canada

10,50010,9429,8859,9129,4019,021 Mexico

9,8009,70010,0009,8999,7459,759 Japan

8,4499,1018,7218,2238,7428,518 Korea, South

8,4008,4007,5776,5267,0208,055 Ukraine

2,3502,4502,3022,4122,6052,733 Australia

nrnrnrnr2,39851,522 Others

733,156729,333724,836715,189702,635733,877 Total Foreign

64,62564,45064,88767,14868,17762,516 United States

797,781793,783789,723782,337770,812796,393 Total

none

Production (Pig Crop)

689,000661,000677,800655,620636,817592,080 China

257,500257,800260,000257,700258,400265,100 EU-27

38,45039,15037,26535,89034,84534,530 Brazil

29,55045,65029,47228,79826,64726,232 Russia

28,17027,40028,50329,29731,08531,835 Canada

17,40017,30017,50017,70016,96017,050 Japan

16,15016,16816,00715,96615,92415,767 Mexico

11,12715,49714,92314,91613,79214,422 Korea, South

9,1609,1608,7007,4006,6196,986 Ukraine

4,7504,8504,6864,4674,4775,480 Australia

nrnrnrnr5,03084,356 Others

1,101,2571,093,9751,094,8561,067,7541,050,5961,093,838 Total Foreign

113,736115,220113,349114,542115,030112,873 United States

1,214,9931,209,1951,208,2051,182,2961,165,6261,206,711 Total


Notes: 1/ nr = no record

2/ From 2008, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are excluded.

From 2009, Chile is excluded.



April 2011

Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oct

2011

Apr

none

Total Imports

7604007051,202770377 Russia

505050768612 Ukraine

1222023 Korea, South

10266123 China

9129780136 Mexico

342322 EU-27

223322 Canada

111100 Japan

000022 Others

8474737781,298956537 Total Foreign

5,8505,9005,7496,3659,34810,004 United States

6,6976,3736,5277,66310,30410,541 Total

none

Total Exports

5,8505,9005,7616,3769,35710,032 Canada

1,6001,6501,6162,2101,508901 EU-27

1,5951,6751,6361,6021,6451,609 China

111101 Russia

001113 Others

9,0469,2269,01510,19012,51112,546 Total Foreign


9,0669,2469,03910,21112,60812,683 Total


Notes: 1/ From 2008, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are excluded.

From 2009, Chile is excluded.


April 2011

Beef and Veal: Per Capita Consumption (CWE) Selected Countries

Kilograms Per Person

2007 2008 2009 2010

Oct

2011

Apr

2011

Per Capita Consumption none

69.2 Argentina 67.5 66.7 55.8 54.0 53.5

34.7 Australia 35.0 35.0 35.3 34.2 35.1

36.8 Brazil 36.9 37.1 37.8 37.6 38.4

32.4 Canada 31.2 30.3 29.6 29.2 29.1

23.3 Chile 21.9 22.5 23.6 25.9 24.0

4.6 China 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0

16.7 Colombia 15.2 18.0 19.2 19.0 19.0

17.7 EU-27 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.5

8.7 Egypt 6.7 6.8 7.7 6.6 6.7

15.0 Hong Kong 18.9 24.0 23.8 32.3 23.9

1.5 India 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.6

7.3 Iran 7.7 7.6 9.8 10.0 10.3

9.3 Japan 9.2 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.8

27.1 Kazakhstan 27.3 26.7 26.8 26.5 27.0

10.8 Korea, South 11.1 11.3 12.5 12.9 13.5

17.9 Mexico 18.3 17.6 17.2 17.8 17.1

29.8 New Zealand 29.5 28.5 29.2 28.0 28.0

8.1 Pakistan 8.1 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.1

26.2 Paraguay 31.9 35.3 35.6 37.0 35.6

3.9 Philippines 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.8

17.3 Russia 18.6 16.8 16.6 15.7 16.5

14.5 South Africa 14.0 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.1

4.7 Taiwan 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.4 5.5

10.9 Ukraine 10.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4

42.6 United States 41.0 39.8 38.8 37.4 37.9

51.7 Uruguay 50.6 58.4 62.1 53.9 61.0

20.4 Uzbekistan 21.5 21.4 21.5 21.7 21.7

20.8 Venezuela 23.1 18.8 18.2 18.8 17.5

Note: May include meat of other bovines

April 2011

Pork: Per Capita Consumption (CWE) Selected Countries

Kilograms Per Person

2007 2008 2009 2010

Oct

2011

Apr

2011


6.2 Argentina 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.9

22.2 Australia 21.7 22.0 22.5 22.3 23.2

39.1 Belarus 44.9 42.1 47.5 43.0 47.7

26.6 Canada 25.5 25.5 23.9 23.1 23.4

20.0 Chile 20.8 22.2 23.0 22.8 22.8

32.3 China 35.1 36.5 37.9 38.0 38.8

3.9 Colombia 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.1

43.8 EU-27 42.8 42.8 43.2 41.8 43.0

61.5 Hong Kong 65.0 68.9 65.7 70.3 67.5

19.4 Japan 19.5 19.4 19.6 19.3 19.7

13.5 Kazakhstan 14.0 14.4 14.8 14.8 14.9

31.1 Korea, South 31.4 30.5 31.6 31.8 28.1

14.0 Mexico 14.6 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.9

21.3 New Zealand 20.4 21.4 21.2 21.2 21.2

27.2 Norway 26.1 25.3 25.0 25.1 25.1

17.9 Russia 19.8 19.2 19.9 22.8 19.9

3.7 South Africa 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7

33.6 Switzerland 33.5 33.3 33.1 33.1 33.1

36.9 Taiwan 35.7 36.9 35.8 36.0 36.3

15.4 Ukraine 18.0 15.6 17.5 18.6 19.5

29.8 United States 29.0 29.3 27.9 27.1 27.3

5.0 Venezuela 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.8

21.4 Vietnam 21.5 21.2 21.0 21.0 21.0

April 2011

Broiler Meat: Per Capita Consumption Selected Countries

Kilograms Per Person, Ready to Cook Equivalent

2007 2008 2009 2010

Oct

2011

Apr

2011


30.0 Argentina 31.4 32.4 33.7 36.0 36.1

33.9 Australia 34.7 35.0 35.5 35.5 35.5

38.1 Brazil 39.7 40.4 45.4 40.8 47.3

29.9 Canada 30.0 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.8

29.6 Chile 28.3 28.9 31.3 32.0 31.7

8.6 China 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.6

22.3 Colombia 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.0 24.1

17.0 EU-27 17.4 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.1

36.1 Hong Kong 36.2 37.3 43.0 47.0 47.0

2.0 India 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3

3.5 Indonesia 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8

22.4 Iran 22.2 23.2 24.8 24.8 25.4

15.3 Japan 15.1 15.6 16.3 16.1 16.5

12.9 Korea, South 12.7 14.0 15.3 15.1 15.5

50.7 Kuwait 65.8 75.4 59.9 65.8 58.9

38.9 Malaysia 38.6 37.7 37.3 37.2 37.2

28.2 Mexico 29.8 29.3 29.7 29.8 30.0

7.2 Philippines 7.6 7.9 8.4 8.1 8.4

18.6 Russia 20.1 21.2 21.0 19.6 20.8

36.8 Saudi Arabia 37.6 40.6 42.6 42.4 43.8

28.8 South Africa 29.3 29.4 30.8 30.9 31.2

26.3 Taiwan 25.7 25.2 28.0 27.1 27.1

12.4 Thailand 11.9 12.3 12.5 13.3 12.8

13.2 Ukraine 17.7 17.1 17.2 17.8 17.1

54.9 United Arab Emirates 63.8 63.1 59.1 62.3 59.4

45.1 United States 44.2 42.1 43.4 43.6 44.5

32.3 Venezuela 36.6 29.9 30.0 31.1 30.2

5.2 Vietnam 6.4 6.1 7.2 6.6 7.5

10.3 Yemen 9.9 11.0 10.9 9.8 10.8

Note: Middle East consumption is likely to be overstated due to transshipments in the region and temporary workers not included in

population statistics.

April 2011

Notes to Readers

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview. Data Modifications Cattle/Beef:

• India – Based historical review, PSDs for cattle and beef are revised from 1996 to present. • Russia – Based on additional analysis and information, PSDs for cattle and beef are revised

from 1988 to present.

Swine/Pork: • Russia – Based on additional analysis and information, PSDs for swine and pork are revised

from 1988 to present. Broiler Meat:

• Russia – Based on additional analysis and information, PSDs for broiler meat are revised from 1990 to present.

• Yemen – Production has been revised from 2002 onwards based on newly available information.

Turkey Meat:

• Data has not been revised since the October 2010 release. Conversion Rates

Beef &Veal Pork Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201

Frozen: 0202 Processed: 021020 & 160250

Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319 Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329 Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249

Broiler Meat Turkey Meat Conversion Rate 1 1 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13

Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14 Processed and Salted: 1602.32,

0210.99

Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26, 0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35

Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36 Processed: 1602.31

Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded.

April 2011

Assumptions

• BSE: Forecast assumes a continuation of trade policies due to BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) currently in place by U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of October 9, 2010.

• Other Diseases (AI, H1N1, FMD): Forecast reflects policies currently in place as a result of outbreaks as of April 8, 2011.

Technical Notes

CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. FAS Reports from Overseas Offices

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since January 2011 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp. PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be reached through http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline. Additional Resources

Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp for additional data and analysis. Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/. Future Releases and Contact Information

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp to view archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in October 2011. Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Lesley Ahmed (202) 720-2781

[email protected] Swine and Pork

Anneke Gustafson (202) 720-7285 [email protected] Poultry (Broiler, Turkey and Other Poultry products)

Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Cattle and Beef

Lazaro Sandoval (202) 690-8478

[email protected] Other animals and meat (horse, sheep, etc), Animal by products (rendered products, hide/skins)

April 2011

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Service April 2011 1 Trade Forecast Update: Pork …...2011/04/13 · April 2011 1 Trade Forecast Update: Pork Higher; Beef and Broiler Meat Stable Beef p roduction is virtually unchanged