7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
1/33
W`hm }whkyq`w} btdl qwoidy, mdfhkm hkm
}hu wdrdktdy3 ofqhi} `b btdl mt}
dyihlh}`w hkm qwoid y}hgoloydw
W`ndw Yhlf`ky
Q`loi Y}tmody Oky}o}t}d
Bdgwthw 7188
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
2/33
W`hm }whkyq`w} btdl qwoidy, mdfhkm hkm }hu wdrdktdy3 ofqhi} `b btdl mt} dyihlh}`w hkm
qwoid y}hgoloydw ~hy ~wo}}dk g Mw W`ndw Yhlf`ky hkm qtgloyedm g Q`loi Y}tmody
Oky}o}t}d+
W`ndw Yhlf`ky oy h Ydko`w Wdydhwie Bdll`~ ok }ed Dkrow`kfdk} Nw`tq h} Q`loi Y}tmody
Oky}o}t}d+
]eoy gwodbokn ehy gddk qw`mtidm hy h qhw} `b h c`ok} qw`cdi} gd}~ddk Q`loi Y}tmody
Oky}o}t}d hkm Nwddk Hllohkid }` mdrdl`q }ed bokmokny `b }ed Nwddk Boyihl I`ffoyyo`k
~eoie ~dwd qtgloyedm ok o}y bokhl wdq`w} ]ed Ihyd b`w Nwddk Boyihl Wdb`wf ok @i}`gdw
711?+ Q`loi Y}tmody Oky}o}t}d qw`romdm }ed Ydiwd}hwoh} b`w }ed Nwddk Boyihl I`ffoyyo`k
hkm btll md}holy `b }ed I`ffoyyo`ky ~`wj hwd hrholhgld bw`f3
~~~+nwddkboyihli`ffoyyo`k+`wn+tj+
Q`loi Y}tmody Oky}o}t}d
41 Ehky`k Y}wdd}
L`km`k
^8^ 2TQ
171 >?88 >411
~~~+qyo+`wn+tj
Nwddk Hllohkid
92 Gtijoknehf Qhlhid W`hm
L`km`k
Y^8^ 1WD
171 >799 >=99
~~~+nwddk&hllohkid+`wn+tj
7188 Q`loi Y}tmody Oky}o}t}d
^d hwd nwh}dbtl b`w }ed ytqq`w} }eoy ~`wj ehy wdidordm bw`f }ed Dyfd Bhowghowk
B`tkmh}o`k hkm Hyemdk ]wty}+
http://www.greenfiscalcommission.org.uk/http://www.greenfiscalcommission.org.uk/http://www.psi.org.uk/http://www.psi.org.uk/http://www.green-alliance.org.uk/http://www.green-alliance.org.uk/http://www.green-alliance.org.uk/http://www.psi.org.uk/http://www.greenfiscalcommission.org.uk/7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
3/33
8
I`k}dk}y
Ok}w`mti}o`k ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 7
8 ]wdkmy ok w hm }whkyq`w} btdl qwoidy, mdfhkm hkm }hudy ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 9
8+8 Btdl qwoidy +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 9
8+7 Btdl mdfhkm +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ =
8+9 Btdl }hudy ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 4
7 Ofqhi} `b btdl mt} dyihlh}`w wdf`rhl ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ >
9 Btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 81
9+8 Mdi`fq`yo}o`k `b iwtmd `ol qwoid ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 81
9+7 Mdyonk `b qwoid y}hgoloydw +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 88
9+9 Wdrdktd ofqloih}o`ky ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 89
9+= Qwhi}oihl i`kyomdwh}o`ky ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 8=
= I`kiltyo`ky +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 82
Wdbdwdkidy ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 85
Hkkdu H Wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk iwtmd `ol qwoid hkm wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 8?
Hkkdu G L`kn wtk }wdkm b`w iwtmd `ol qwoid ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 79
Hkkdu I Ihlitlh}okn btdl mdfhkm tkmdw hyytfq}o`k b i`k}oktdm mt} dyihlh}`w +++++++++++++++++++++++ 72
Hkkdu M Mdyonk `b btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 7>
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
4/33
7
Ok}w`mti}o`k
]hudy `k w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly hwd hk ofq`w}hk} y`twid `b wdrdktd b w }ed n`rdwkfdk}+ Ok 711?&81,
btdl mt} %hkm }ed hyy`ioh}dm RH]/ hf`tk}dm }` 7? gollo`k, hw`tkm 2$ `b }`}hl wdrdktd+ E`~drdw,
btdl mt} wh}dy qhw}oitlhwl okiwdhydy ok wh}dy hwd hk df`}ord }`qoi }eh} ndkdwh}dy y}w`kn bddlokny`k }ed qhw} `b g`}e okmty}w hkm }ed qtgloi+
Whqoml woyokn qd}w`l qwoidy mtwokn }ed ydi`km ehlb `b }ed 8??1y tkmdw }ed btdl mt} dyihlh}`w ldm }`
okiwdhyokn hkndw, itlfokh}okn ok }ed y`&ihlldm btdl qw`}dy}y g l`ww mwordwy hkm bhwfdwy ok }ed
ht}tfk `b 7111 %hl}e`tne }ed ~o}emwh~hl `b }ed dyihlh}`w ehm gddk hkk`tkidm ok K`rdfgdw `b }ed
qwdro`ty dhw/+ Mt} wh}dy ~eoie ~dwd wdmtidm ylone}l ok wdyq`kyd }` }ed qw`}dy}y }edk
wdfhokdm hlf`y} i`ky}hk} ok k`fokhl }dwfy `rdw }ed kdu} ydrdk dhwy, gdb`wd y}hw}okn }` woyd hnhok
ok 711>&5+ F`wd wdidk}l, }edwd ehrd gddk ihlly b`w h btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw }` ityeo k }ed ofqhi} `b
blti}th}o`ky ok }ed qwoid b iwtmd `ol+ ]ed omdh ~eoie ~hy okiltmdm ok }ed I`kydwrh}ord Qhw}
fhkobdy}` h} }ed 7181 ndkdwhl dldi}o`k hkm ~hy ytgcdi} }` h I`kydwrh}ord Qhw} i`kytl}h}o`km`itfdk} ok 7115 %I`kydwrh}ord Qhw}, 7115/ oy itwwdk}l gdokn okrdy}onh}dm g }ed ]wdhytw+
]ed hof `b }eoy gwodbokn k`}d oy }` qw`romd y`fd `gcdi}ord hkhlyoy }` okb`wf }ed mdgh}d wdnhwmokn
btdl mt}+ Ok qhw}oitlhw, }ed gcdi}ordy `b }ed k`}d hwd3
hyydyy ~eh} }ed `t}i`fdy ~`tlm ehrd gddk `rdw }ed qdwo`m 7111 7181 ob }ed btdl mt}dyihlh}`w ehm k`} gddk ~o}emwh~k ok 8???, ok }dwfy `b mt} wh}dy, qd}w`l qwoidy, qd}w`l
i`kytfq}o`k, I@7 dfoyyo`ky, hkm }hu wdrdktdy:
mdyonk h wdrdktd&kdt}whl btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw }eh} ihk ytgy}hk}ohll wdmtid }ed ye`w} }dwfr`lh}olo} ok qd}w`l qwoidy, ~eold qwdydwrokn }ed wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk qd}w`l qwoidy hkm }ed l`kn
wtk }wdkm ok iwtmd `ol qwoidy+
]ed k`}d i`fqwoydy }ewdd ydi}o`ky+ Ydi}o`k `kd qw`romdy h gwodb wdrod~ `b }ed }wdkmy ok w`hm
}whkyq`w} btdl qwoidy, mdfhkm hkm }hudy `rdw }ed qhy} }~dk} dhwy+ ]eoy oy b`ll`~dm ok ydi}o`k }~`
g }ed hyydyyfdk} `b }ed ofqhi} `b }ed btdl mt} dyihlh}`w wdf`rhl+ Bokhll, ydi}o`k }ewdd mdyiwogdy
h q`}dk}ohl btdl mt} y}hgoloydw hkm i`kyomdwy y`fd `b }ed qwhi}oihl ofqldfdk}h}o`k oyytdy+
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
5/33
9
8 ]wdkmy ok w`hm }whkyq`w} btdl qwoidy, mdfhkm hkm }hudy
8+8 Btdl qwoidy
]ed wd}hol qwoid `b f`}`w btdly ehy woydk y}dhmol `rdw }ed lhy} }~dk} dhwy+ E`~drdw, }edwd ehy gddk
i`kyomdwhgld r`lh}olo} hw`tkm }ed l`kn wtk }wdkm, qhw}oitlhwl ok lh}dw dhwy+ B`w duhfqld, ~eold }ed
wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l okiwdhydm bw`f cty} tkmdw =1 qdkid qdw lo}wd h} }ed y}hw} `b
8??8 }` hlf`y} 871 qdkid qdw lo}wd ok Ctkd 7181 %ydd Bontwd 8+8/ h wdhl okiwdhyd `b 59$, }edwd ~dwd
yonkoboihk} mdiwdhydy mtwokn 711118 hkm ok }ed ydi km ehlb `b 7115+ Mtwokn }ed 8??1y, }ed woyd ok
}ed qwoid ~hy mwordk g okiwdhydy ok btdl mt} %ydd ydi}o`k 8+9/+ @rdw }ed qhy} }dk dhwy, }ed woyd ehy
gddk mwordk g }ed okiwdhydy ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd `ol+
Btdl mt} hkm RH] hii`tk} b`w }ed fhc`wo} `b }ed wd}hol qwoid nw`~okn bw`f 21$ `b }ed }`}hl qwoid
b`w qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l ok 8??8 }` h qdhj `b 52$ ok Fhwie 8??? %~edk }ed btdl mt} dyihlh}`w
~hy moyi`k}oktdm/, gdb`wd bhllokn ghij }` hw`tkm 21$ g }ed gdnokkokn `b 7181+
Bontwd 8+8 Mdi`fq`yo}o`k b wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l %qdkid qdw lo}wd/8
Y`twidy3 Xthw}dwl Dkdwn Qwoidy3 Ctkd 7181 %MDII/
@DIM Bhi}g``j 71813 Di`k`foi, Dkrow`kfdk}hl hkm Y`iohl Y}h}oy}oiy %b`w iwtmd `ol ofq`w} qwoid/
^eold }edwd oy h ildhw wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed qwoid `b iwtmd `ol %ok y}dwlokn/ hkm }ed wd}hol qwoid `b
qd}w`l, o} oy eonel mhfqdm %ydd Bontwd 8+7/+ @rdw wdidk} dhwy, }ed ye`w} wtk dlhy}oio} `b }ed qwd&}hu
qwoid `b qd}w`l ~o}e wdyqdi} }` }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid ehy hrdwhndm hw`tkm 1+2 %ydd Hkkdu H/+ ]eh} oy, h
81$ okiwdhyd ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd `ol ihtydy }ed qwoid `b qd}w`l ldhrokn }ed wdbokdwody }` woyd g
8]ed iwtmd `ol i`fq`kdk} `b }ed wd}hol qwoid oy ghydm `k }ed hyytfq}o`k }eh} }ed i`y} `b iwtmd `ol oy
hqq`w}o`kdm }` }ed rhwo`ty `t}qt}y bw`f }ed wdbokokn qw`idyy `k }ed ghyoy `b }edow wdyqdi}ord odlmy+
]eoy oy dxtorhldk} }` hyytfokn }eh} `kd lo}wd `b qd}w`l wdxtowdy }ed okqt} `b `kd lo}wd `b iwtmd `ol+Wdbokokn rhltd hmmdm okiltmdy }ed i`y}y `b hll `}edw wdbokokn okqt}y+ Hy ytie, o} oy k`} }ed yhfd hy }edtythl mdboko}o`k `b di`k`foi rhltd hmmdm+
1
91
21
?1
871
841
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
RH] Btdl mt} Wdbokokn 'rhltd hmmdm' Iwtmd ol
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
6/33
=
hw`tkm 2$ ~o}eok `kd f`k}e+ ]ed ofqhi} `k }ed wd}hol qwoid oy ftie yfhlldw, wdbldi}okn }ed bhi} }eh}
btdl mt} oy yqdiobodm ok hgy lt}d }dwfy %o+d+ ok qdkid qdw lo}wd/ wh}edw }ehk hm rhl`wdf+ ]eoy ehy }ed
dbbdi} `b wdmtiokn }ed ye`w}&wtk dlhy}oio} }` hw`tkm 1+74 `rdw wdidk} dhwy+ ]ety, ~eold }edwd ehy
gddk rhwohgolo} ok }ed wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l hw`tkm o}y l`kn&}dwf %tq~hwm/ }wdkm, o} oy ftie ldyy
r`lh}old }ehk }ed qwoid `b iwtmd `ol+
Bontwd 8+7 Wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk iwtmd `ol qwoid%h/
hkm qd}w`l qwoidy%g/
%okmdu 7114 6 811/
%h/ Hrdwhnd y}dwlokn qwoid `k h iob ghyoy b`w ytqqlody wdidordm g TJ wdbokdwody bw`f g`}e okmondk`ty hkm ofq`w}dm y`twidy+
%g/ Qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l
Y`twid3 Xthw}dwl Dkdwn Qwoidy3 Ctkd 7181 %MDII/
8+7 Btdl mdfhkm
]ed }`}hl mdfhkm b`w f`}`w btdly %o+d+ qd}w`l qlty modydl/ wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl blh} bw`f }ed y}hw} `b
8??? }` }ed }eowm xthw}dw `b 711>, h} hw`tkm 87 gollo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw, ~o}e }ed kdnh}ord ofqhi} `b
}ed qwoid okiwdhydy `rdw }ed qdwo`m gdokn `bbyd} g }ed nw`~}e ok di`k`foi hi}oro}+7
Yokid }ed }eowm
xthw}dw `b 711> e`~drdw, }edwd ehy gddk h yonkoboihk} mdilokd ok mdfhkm, ~o}e h 81$ wdmti}o`k ok
wd}hol yhldy hkm hk 85$ wdmti}o`k ok i`ffdwiohl yhldy+9
^eold }ed gwdhjm`~k `b mdfhkm gd}~ddk wd}hol hkm i`ffdwiohl yhldy ehy wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl y}hgld`rdw }ed dk}owd qdwo`m, }edwd ehy gddk h yonkoboihk} yeob} ok }ed fou `b wd}hol yhldy bw`f qd}w`l }`
modydl, ~o}e }ed lh}}dwy yehwd nw`~okn bw`f 77$ ok 8??8 }` =9$ g 7181+
7Gd}~ddk X8 8??? hkm X9 711>, }ed yhldy ~done}dm hrdwhnd qwoid `b f`}`w btdly okiwdhydm g 7>$ ok
wdhl }dwfy+ @rdw }ed yhfd qdwo`m, di`k`foi hi}oro} %hy fdhytwdm g }ed r`ltfd okmdu b`w NMQ/ nwd~
g 72$+
9
Wd}hol yhldy hwd }e`yd mdlordwody fhmd }` qd}w`l y}h}o`ky, d}i+, fhokl b`w wdyhld }` bokhl i`kytfdwy+I`ffdwiohl yhldy hwd }e`yd mdlordwody fhmd mowdi} }` h i`kytfdw b`w tyd ok }edow `~k gtyokdyy, d+n+ }`
gty hkm i`hie mdq`}y+
1
41
811
841
711
741
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
Iwtmd ol Qd}w`l qwd&}hu Qd}w`l wd}hol
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
7/33
4
Bontwd 8+9 Mdfhkm b`w f`} w }whkyq`w} btdly %follo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw/
Y`twid3 ]hgld 9+4, Dkdwn ]wdkmy3 Ydq}dfgdw 7181 %MDII/
8+9 Btdl }hudy
Btdl mt} wh}dy okiwdhydm yonkoboihk}l gd}~ddk 8??8 hkm 7111 %ydd Bontwd 8+=/ mtd lhwndl }` }ed
btdl mt} dyihlh}`w, ~eoie ~hy ok}w`mtidm ok 8??9 hkm ~hy tydm }` md}dwfokd okiwdhydy ok btdl mt}
wh}dy tk}ol 8???+=
B`ll`~okn }ed ~o}emwh~hl `b }ed dyihlh}`w, mt} wh}dy wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl blh} %ok
k`fokhl }dwfy/ tk}ol }ed dkm `b 711>, ~edk }ed y}hw}dm }` woyd hnhok+
Bontwd 8+= Mt} wh}dy %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
Y`twid3 Emw`ihwg k @oly3 Eoy}`woi Mt} Wh}dy %EFWI/
=
]ed btdl mt} dyihlh}`w ~hy hkk`tkidm ok }ed Fhwie 8??9 Gtmnd} Y}h}dfdk} hkm ~hy bowy} hqqlodm h}}ed dkm `b K`rdfgdw 8??9+ O} ~hy lhy} hqqlodm ok Fhwie 8??? hkm ~hy b`wfhll ~o}emwh~k ok }ed
K`rdfgdw 8??? Qwd&Gtmnd} Y}h}dfdk}+
1
7,111
=,111
2,111
5,111
81,111
87,111
8=,111
8???
7118
7119
7114
711>
711?
Qd}w`l & I`ff Qd}w`l & Wd}hol MDWR & Wd}hol MDWR & I`ff
1
71
=1
21
51
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
LQ LWQ Qwdfotf TLQ TLYQ Modydl TLYM
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
8/33
2
Tkmdw }ed dyihlh}`w, okiwdhydy ok mt} wh}dy ~dwd wdxtowdm }` duiddm okblh}o`k %hy fdhytwdm g }ed
okiwdhyd ok }ed Wd}hol Qwoid Okmdu/: oko}ohll g h} ldhy} 9$, }edk g h} ldhy} 4$ %bw`f K`rdfgdw 8??=/,
hkm bokhll g 2$ %bw`f Fhwie 8??5/+
]hgld 8+8 Btdl mt} wh}dy 8??871113 qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l
Mh}d `b
iehknd
Kd~ wh}d
%ql/
$ iehknd Ghyoy b`w okiwdhyd
Fhw 8??8 77+=8 84+1$ K` y}h}dm ghyoy
Fhw 8??7 79+=7 =+4$ Okiwdhyd WQO %Mdi 8??8/
Fhw 8??9 74+>2 81+1$ K` y}h}dm ghyoy
K`r 8??9 75+97 ?+?$ H} ldhy} WQO %Ydq 8??9/ * 9$
Btd
lMt}Dyihlh}`w
K`r 8??= 91+== >+4$ H} ldhy} WQO %Ydq 8??=/ * 4$
Chk 8??4 98+97 7+?$ Hm e`i
K`r 8??4 9=+91 ?+4$ H} ldhy} WQO %Ydq 8??4/ * 4$
K`r 8??2 95+52 >+4$ H} ldhy} WQO %Ydq 8??2/ * 4$
Ctl 8??> =1+75 ?+9$ H} ldhy} WQO * 4$
Fhw 8??5 =9+?? ?+7$ Duqdi}dm WQO %Ydq 8??5/ * 2$
Fhw 8??? =>+78 >+9$ Duqdi}dm WQO %Ydq 8???/ * 2$
Fhw 7111 =5+57 9+=$ Duqdi}dm WQO %Ydq 7111/
Y`twid3 E`tyd `b I`ff`ky %7111/
]ed wdrdktd whoydm g btdl mt} wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl y}hgld bw`f }ed y}hw} `b 8??? }` }ed dkm `b 7112,
h} cty} tkmdw 2 gollo`k qdw xthw}dw %ydd Bontwd 8+4/+ Okiltmokn }ed RH] ldrodm `k }ed mt}, hkkthl
wdrdktdy hrdwhndm hw`tkm 7> gollo`k `rdw }eoy qdwo`m: ~o}e }ed lhwnd fhc`wo} %o+d+ hw`tkm 51$/
gdokn whoydm bw`f wd}hol yhldy+
Yokid 711> }edwd ehy gddk h ylone} okiwdhyd ok wdrdktdy, hy }ed okiwdhyd ok mt} wh}dy ehy gddk
qhw}ohll `bbyd} g }ed wdmti}o`k ok mdfhkm+ B`w }ed dhw dkmdm X7 7181, wdrdktd }`}hlldm 7?+4
gollo`k %okiltmokn RH]/+
Bontwd 8+4 W`hm }whkyq`w} btdl mt} wdrdktd % follo`k qdw xthw}dw/
Y`twid3 Ihlitlh}o`k %ghydm `k btdl mdfhkm hkm mt} wh}d mh}h/
1
7,111
=,111
2,111
5,111
8???
7118
7119
7114
711>
711?
Ldhmdm qd}w`l Tkldhmdm qd}w`l MDWR wd}hol MDWR I`ffdwiohl
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
9/33
>
7 Ofqhi} `b btdl mt} dyihlh}`w wdf`rhl
Ok }eoy ydi}o`k, ~d i`kyomdw ~eh} }ed `t}i`fdy ~`tlm ehrd gddk `rdw }ed qdwo`m 7111 7181 ob }ed
btdl mt} dyihlh}`w ehm k`} gddk ~o}emwh~k ok 8???+ ]ewdd hl}dwkh}ord yidkhwo`y b w }ed dyihlh}`whwd hyydyydm3
h/ WQO * 9$
g/ WQO * 4$
i/ WQO * 2$
Ok dhie ihyd, o} oy hyytfdm }ed mt} wh}dy hwd wdroydm ok Fhwie `b dhie dhw %y}hw}okn ok Fhwie 7111/
hkm hwd ghydm `k }ed %hi}thl/ okiwdhyd ok WQO b`w }ed b`ll`~okn Ydq}dfgdw+4
Ok jddqokn ~o}e }ed
hi}thl mt} wh}dy, o} oy hyytfdm }eh} }ed ydqhwh}d %eonedw/ mt} wh}d b`w ytqdw tkldhmdm qd}w`l ~hy
hg`loyedm ok Fhwie 7118, hkm }eh} }edwdhb}dw, }edwd ~hy h i`ff`k mt} wh}d b`w tkldhmdm qd}w`lhkm modydl+
2
Bontwd 7+8 ye`~y }ed ofqhi} `b i`k}oktokn }ed dyihlh}`w `k btdl mt} wh}dy+ Tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w,
}ed mt} wh}d woydy }` 55 qdkid qdw lo}wd g Ctkd 7181, ~eold o} woydy }` hlf`y} 871 qdkid qdw lo}wd
tkmdw }ed 2$ dyihlh}`w+ ]edyd wh}dy i`fqhwd ~o}e hk hi}thl wh}d b`w }eh} f`k}e `b 4> qdkid qdw
lo}wd+
Bontwd 7+8 Ofqhi} `k btdl mt} wh}d3 tkldhmdm qd}w`l hkm modydl %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
Bontwd 7+7 ye`~y }ed wdytl}hk} ofqhi} `k }ed wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l, hyytfokn }eh}
g`}e }ed qwd&}hu qwoid hkm }ed qwdrholokn wh}d `b RH] hwd tkhbbdi}dm g }ed i`k}okth}o`k `b }ed
4]eoy oy i`kyoy}dk} ~o}e }ed ~h ok ~eoie }ed dyihlh}`w ~hy ihlitlh}dm ok o}y bokhl }~` dhwy, ~edk }ed
okiwdhyd ~hy ghydm `k }ed duqdi}dm okiwdhyd ok WQO b`w }ed b`ll`~okn Ydq}dfgdw+
2Hy ~o}e }ed hi}thl wh}dy, }ed mt} mobbdwdk}ohl b`w ldhm wdqlhidfdk} qd}w`l %LWQ/ oy fhok}hokdm tk}ol }ed
dkm `b 711=+
1
91
21
?1
871
841
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
9$ dyihlh}`w 4$ dyihlh}`w 2$ dyihlhl}`w Hi}thl
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
10/33
5
dyihlh}`w+ ]ed wd}hol qwoid woydy }` 84= qdkid qdw lo}wd g Ctkd 7181 tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w,
i`fqhwdm ~o}e }ed hi}thl qwoid ok }eh} f`k}e b 88> qdkid qdw lo}wd+ Tkmdw }ed 2$ dyihlh}`w, }ed
wd}hol qwoid woydy }` 8?8 qdkid qdw lo}wd %o+d+ 29$ eonedw/+
Bontwd 7+7 Ofqhi} `k wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
]ed eonedw wd}hol qwoidy ehrd h yonkoboihk} ofqhi} `k }ed mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly %ydd Bontwd
7+9/, ~o}e }`}hl mdfhkm mdilokokn }` hw`tkm 5+2 gollo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw g X7 7181 tkmdw }ed 2$
dyihlh}`w, hlf`y} 74$ l`~dw }ehk }ed hi}thl bontwd+>
Tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w, mdfhkm bhlly }` hw`tkm
?+> gollo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw %hlf`y} 84$ ldyy }ehk }ed hi}thl ldrdl/+
Bontwd 7+9 Ofqhi} `k }`}hl mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly %follo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw/
>
]ed ofqhi} `k mdfhkm oy ihlitlh}dm tyokn }ed hrdwhnd qwoid dlhy}oio}ody qw`romdm g N``m~ok d} hl%711=/ o+d+ h ye`w}&}dwf dlhy}oio} `b &1+74 hkm h l`kn&}dwf dlhy}oio} `b &1+2=+ Md}holy `b }edihlitlh}o`k fd}e`m`l`n hwd qw`romdm ok Hkkdu I+
1
41
811
841
711
741
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
9$ dyihlh}`w 4$ dyihlh}`w 2$ dyihlhl}`w Hi}thl
1
9,111
2,111
?,111
87,111
84,111
8???
7118
7119
7114
711>
711?
9$ dyihlh}`w 4$ dyihlh}`w 2$ dyihlhl}`w Hi}thl
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
11/33
?
]ed wdmti}o`k ok mdfhkm oy wdbldi}dm ok h i`wwdyq`kmokn wdmti}o`k ok I@7 dfoyyo`ky bw`f w`hm
}whkyq`w} %ydd ]hgld 7+8/+ G X7 7181, itftlh}ord dfoyyo`ky `b I@7 hwd 819 follo`k }`kkdy l`~dw
tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w hkm 842 follo`k l`~dw tkmdw }ed 2$ dyihlh}`w: ~eold hkkthl dfoyyo`ky g }ed
dkm `b }ed qdwo`m hwd 82 follo`k }`kkdy l`~dw hkm 72 follo`k }`kkdy l`~dw wdyqdi}ordl+ ]ed lh}}dw
bontwd ~`tlm ehrd wdqwdydk}dm h 4+=$ mdiwdhyd ok }`}hl TJ dfoyyo`ky, hll dlyd gdokn dxthl+5
]hgld 7+8 Wdmti}o`k ok I@7 dfoyyo`ky rdwyty hi}thl %follo`k }`kkdy I@7/
Dyihlh}`w Itftlh}ord }`
X7 7181
_dhw dkmokn
X7 7181
WQO * 9$ 819 82
WQO * 4$ 89? 79
WQO * 2$ 842 72
]ed wdrdktd whoydm g btdl mt} hkm }ed hyy`ioh}dm RH] okiwdhydy }` hw`tkm 81 gollo`k qdw xthw}dw
g X7 7181 tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w, hkm }` hw`tkm 87 gollo`k tkmdw }ed 2$ dyihlh}`w, i`fqhwdm }`
}ed hi}thl bontwd `b >+2 gollo`k %ydd Bontwd 7+=/+ Itftlh}ordl, wdrdktdy ~`tlm ehrd gddk 28 gollo`k
eonedw }ehk }ed hi}thl bontwd tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w hkm hw`tkm 811 gollo`k eonedw tkmdw }ed 2$
dyihlh}`w+ ]ed hmmo}o`khl hkkthl wdrdktd tkmdw }ed 2$ dyihlh}`w g }ed dkm `b }ed qdwo`m h} 84+7
gollo`k ~`tlm ehrd gddk ytbboiodk} }` btkm h wdmti}o`k ok dfql`dwy kh}o`khl okytwhkid
i`k}wogt}o`ky `b hw`tkm 74$, `w h wdmti}o`k ok e`tyde`lm oki`fd }hu `b hw`tkm 81$+?, 81
Bontwd 7+= Ofqhi} `k mt} hkm }hu wdrdktdy % follo`k qdw xthw}dw/
5]ed qw`royo`khl dy}ofh}d `b TJ }`}hl I@7 dfoyyo`ky b`w 711? oy =58 follo`k }`kkdy+ Y`twid3 MDII
Y}h}oy}oihl Wdldhyd, 74 Fhwie 7181+
? Dfql`dwy i`fqtly`w kh}o`khl okytwhkid i`k}wogt}o`ky ~dwd 4=+2 gollo`k ok 711? %4>+8 gollo`k ok
7115/, ~eold e`tyde`lm oki`fd }hudy ~dwd 895+1 gollo`k %841+9 gollo`k ok 7115/+ Y`twid3 Tko}dm
Joknm`f Kh}o`khl Hii`tk}y ]ed Gltd G``j, 7181 dmo}o`k +
81]ed hgolo} `b btdl mt} }` wdqlhid wdrdktdy bw`f `}edw }hudy ehy gddk k`}dm g }ed Nwddk Boyihl
I`ffoyyo`k ok o}y Gwodbokn Qhqdw @kd %Nwddk Boyihl I`ffoyyo`k, 711?/+
1
9,111
2,111
?,111
87,111
84,111
8???
7118
7119
7114
711>
711?
9$ dyihlh}`w 4$ dyihlh}`w 2$ dyihlhl}`w Hi}thl
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
12/33
81
9 Btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw
^eold }ed wdlh}o`kyeoq oy eonel mhfqdm %ydd ydi}o`k 8+8/, blti}th}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid m` bddm
}ew`tne }` }ed wd}hol qwoidy `b f`}`w btdly+ ]eoy ihk ihtyd rdw yehwq ye`w}&}dwf okiwdhydy ok wd}holqwoidy qhw}oitlhwl ~edk i`fgokdm ~o}e woydy ok btdl mt} wh}dy+ Ok }eoy ydi}o`k, ~d i`kyomdw }ed
mdyonk `b h qwoid y}hgoloydw }eh} ~`tlm ytgy}hk}ohll wdmtid }ed ye`w}&wtk r`lh}olo} ok }ed wd}hol qwoid
`b qd}w`l, ~eold qwdydwrokn }ed wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed qwoid hkm }ed l`kn wtk }wdkm ok iwtmd `ol
qwoidy+
9+8 Mdi`fq`yo}o`k `b iwtmd `ol qwoid
]ed iwtmd `ol qwoid ok hk f`k}e ihk gd mdi`fq`ydm ok}` }~` hmmo}ord i`fq`kdk}y3 }ed l`kn }dwf
}wdkm qwoid hkm h ye`w} }dwf mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed }wdkm %ydd Hkkdu G/+ Gd}~ddk 8??8 hkm 7181, }edwd
~hy h b`tw&b`lm okiwdhyd ok }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid, ~o}e row}thll hll `b }ed nw`~}e `iitwwokn `rdw
}ed lhy} }dk dhwy %ydd Bontwd 9+8h/+
]edwd oy ytgy}hk}ohl rhwoh}o`k hw`tkm }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid ~o}e mdroh}o`ky %ok g`}e mowdi}o`ky/
`b tq }` 21$ %ydd Bontwd 9+8g/+ ]ed hi}thl qwoid ~hy qhw}oitlhwl eone %o+d+ mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed }wdkm
nwdh}dw }ehk *71$/ ok 8??2, 71118, 71142 hkm 711>5+ O} ~hy qhw}oitlhwl l`~ %o+d+ mdroh}o`k f`wd
kdnh}ord }ehk &71$/ ok 8??5? hkm 7115?+ ]ed mdroh}o`ky hwd iehwhi}dwoydm g q`yo}ord ydwohl
i`wwdlh}o`k, ~o}e hl}dwkh}okn wtky `b ytiidyyord q`yo}ord hkm kdnh}ord rhltdy hrdwhnokn hw`tkm
you}ddk f`k}ey mtwh}o`k+
]ed hrdwhnd rhltd `b }ed hgy`lt}d mdroh}o`k hw`tkm }ed }wdkm lokd %o+d+ ok qdkid qdw lo}wd/ `rdw }ed
qdwo`m 8??8&7181 oy sdw` g mdboko}o`k, ~eold }ed hrdwhnd rhltd `b }ed qdwidk}hnd mdroh}o`k oy il`yd
}` sdw` %o+d+ *1+2$/+88
Bontwd 9+8 Iwtmd `ol qwoid
h/ L`kn&wtk }wdkm %qdkid qdw lo}wd/ g/ Mdroh}o`k bw`f }wdkm %$/
Y`twid3 Xthw}dwl Dkdwn Qwoidy3 Ctkd 7181 %MDII/
88Ydd Hkkdu G b`w duqlhkh}o`k `b ~e o} oy k`} dxthl }` sdw`+
1
81
71
91
=1
41
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
Qwoid ]wdkm
&51$
&=1$
1$
=1$
51$
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
13/33
88
9+7 Mdyonk `b qwoid y}hgoloydw
]ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l ok hk f`k}e %o+d+ q}/ ihk gd mdi`fq`ydm ok}` b`tw hmmo}ord i`fq`kdk}y
%ydd Hkkdu M/3
q} 6 H} * G} * I} * M} %8/
~edwd
H} oy h i`ky}hk} }eh} mdilokdy `rdw }ofd
G} wdqwdydk}y }ed ofqhi} `b }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid `b iwtmd `ol
I} wdqwdydk}y }ed ofqhi} `b }ed ye`w} }dwf mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid
M} wdqwdydk}y }ed ofqhi} `b `}edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy
]ed bowy} }~` i`fq`kdk}y hwd hl~hy q`yo}ord+ ]`nd}edw, }ed hwd dxthl }` }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid
b`w }eh} qdwo`m+ ]ed `}edw }~` i`fq`kdk}y fh gd q`yo}ord `w kdnh}ord, ~o}e }edow i`fgokdm rhltdwdqwdydk}okn }ed mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed }wdkm qwoid+ B`w duhfqld, Bontwd 9+7 ye`~y }ed mdi`fq`yo}o`k
`b }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l `rdw }ed qdwo`m 8??4 }` 7181+
Bontwd 9+7 Mdi`fq`yo}o`k b }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l
%qdkid qdw lo}wd/
]ed `gcdi}ord `b }ed qwoid y}hgoloydw %y}/ oy }` wdf`rd }ed ofqhi} `b }ed ye`w} }dwf mdroh}o`ky ok }ed
iwtmd `ol qwoid %I}/, ~eold qwdydwrokn }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid %hkm `}edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy/+ ]eh}
oy3
q} * y} 6 H} * G} * M} %7/
I`fgokokn %8/ hkm %7/ nordy }ed b`ll`~okn duqwdyyo`k b`w }ed qwoid y}hgoloydw3
y}
6
I} %9/
&71
1
71
=1
21
8??4
7111
7114
7181
H G I M qwoid
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
14/33
87
]ed y}hgoloydw oy q`yo}ord %o+d+ dxtorhldk} }` h }hu/ ~edk }ed %yf``}edm/ mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed l`kn }dwf
iwtmd `ol }wdkm qwoid oy kdnh}ord %o+d+ I} < 1/+ O} oy kdnh}ord %o+d+ dxtorhldk} }` h ytgyom/ ~edk }ed
mdroh}o`k oy q`yo}ord %o+d+ I} ; 1/+
Bontwd 9+9 ye`~y }ed ofqhi} `b }ed y}hgoloydw `k }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l hkm `k }ed }`}hl mdfhkm
b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly+ ^eold }ed ok}w`mti}o`k `b }ed y}hgoloydw yonkoboihk}l wdmtidy }ed r`lh}olo} `b}ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid, o} m`dy k`} dlofokh}d o} dk}owdl mtd }` }ed ofqhi} `b }ed `}edw tkomdk}obodm
bhi}`wy+ ]ed y}hgoloydw ehy fokofhl ofqhi} `k mdfhkm mtd }ed yltnnoyekdyy `b }ed wdyq`kyd }` qwoid
iehkndy %ydd Hkkdu I/+
Bontwd 9+9 Ofqhi} `b y}hgoloydw
h/ qwd&}hu qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
g/ }`}hl mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly %gollo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw/
1
71
=1
21
8?
?4
71
11
71
14
71
81
Hi}thl ^o}e y}hgolosdw L`kn wtk }wdkm
?
87
84
8???
7118
7119
7114
711>
711?
Hi}thl ^o}e y}hgolosdw
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
15/33
89
9+9 Wdrdktd ofqloih}o`ky
Bontwd 9+= ye`~y }ed fhnko}tmd `b }ed btdl y}hgoloydw %ok qdkid qdw lo}wd/ yokid 8??=, ihlitlh}dm
wd}w`yqdi}ordl tyokn hi}thl %jk`~k/ btdl qwoidy+ Hly` ye`~k oy }ed bord&dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltd `b
}ed y}hgoloydw bw`f }ed dhw 8??? `k~hwmy+
Ok ndkdwhl, }ed rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw lody gd}~ddk qlty hkm fokty bord qdkid qdw lo}wd+ ]ed duidq}o`k
}` }eoy ~hy ok 7115&?, ~edk }ed rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw mdilokdm }` fokty ydrdk}ddk qdkid qdw lo}wd ok
Ctl 7115 b`ll`~okn }ed m`tglokn `b }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid `rdw }ed qwdro`ty }~dlrd f`k}ey, gdb`wd
okiwdhyokn }` qlty }dk qdkid ok Chkthw 711? hy }ed `ol qwoid i`llhqydm ok }ed ydi`km ehlb `b 7115+87
]ed bord&dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltd ~hy il`yd }` sdw` gd}~ddk 8??? hkm 711=+ O} }edk w`yd }`
hw`tkm qlty `kd qdkid qdw lo}wd g }ed dkm `b 711> gdb`wd bhllokn whqoml }` hw`tkm fokty `kd hkm h
ehlb qdkid qdw lo}wd g }ed dkm `b 7115+
Bontwd 9+= Wd}w`yqdi}ord btdl mt} y}hgoloydw b`w qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l
%qdkid qdw lo}wd/
]ed ofqhi} `b }ed y}hgoloydw `k }hu wdrdktdy mdqdkmy `k }ed mdfhkm b`w btdl ok dhie qdwo`m hy ~dll
hy }ed y}hgoloydw rhltdy+ E`~drdw, hy ~hy ye`~k ok Bontwd 8+9, }ed }`}hl mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w}
btdly wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl blh} tq }` 7115, gdb`wd mdilokokn g hw`tkm 5$ `rdw }ed kdu} }~` hkm h ehlb
dhwy+ I`kydxtdk}l, }ed ofqhi} `k }hu wdrdktdy b`ll`~y h rdw yofolhw qh}}dwk }` }eh} `b }ed
y}hgoloydw+ Bontwd 9+4 ye`~y }ed }`}hl ofqhi} `k }hu wdrdktd %o+d+ btdl mt} hkm RH]/ bw`f 8???
`k~hwmy, hyytfokn }ed y}hgoloydw rhltd oy }ed yhfd b`w hll btdl }qdy %o+d+ }eh} ihlitlh}dm b`w qwdfotf
tkldhmdm qd}w`l/, }`nd}edw ~o}e }ed bord&dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd bw`f 711= `k~hwmy+
Qwo`w }` 7115, }ed wdrdktd ofqhi} blti}th}dm gd}~ddk qlty hkm fokty 411 follo`k qdw xthw}dw+ Ok
7115 hkm 711? }ed ofqhi}y ~dwd ftie nwdh}dw, wdbldi}okn }ed okiwdhydm fhnko}tmdy `b }ed y}hgoloydw
ok }e`yd dhwy+ E`~drdw, ok }dwfy b }ed ofqhi}y `rdw }hu&dhwy %o+d+ Hqwol Fhwie/ }ed qoi}twd oy
f`wd drdk, rhwokn gd}~ddk h fhuoftf `b qlty 7 gollo`k ok 7119&= }` h fokoftf `b fokty 7
87]ed iwtmd `ol qwoid okiwdhydm bw`f 77+5 qdkid qdw lo}wd ok Ctkd 711> }` =7+9 qdkid qdw lo}wd ok Ctkd
7115, gdb`wd i`llhqyokn }` 8>+7 qdkid qdw lo}wd ok Mdidfgdw 7115+
&71
&81
1
81
71
8??4
7111
7114
7181
F`k}el rhltd Bord dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
16/33
8=
gollo`k ok 7115&?+ ]ed bord dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltd blti}th}dm gd}~ddk qlty hkm fokty 851
follo`k qdw xthw}dw %o+d+ ldyy }ehk 9$ `b }ed hi}thl mt} hkm hyy`ioh}dm RH] wdrdktd i`lldi}dm/+
Bontwd 9+4 Ofqhi} `b wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw `k }hu wdrdktdy % follo`k qdw xthw}dw/
9+= Qwhi}oihl i`kyomdwh}o`ky
]ed y}hgoloydw mdbokdm g dxth}o`k %9/ hkm ye`~k ok Bontwd 9+= wdxtowdy jk`~ldmnd `b }ed
mdroh}o`ky bw`f }ed }wdkm iwtmd `ol qwoid ok hll qdwo`my okiltmokn }ed qdwo m }` ~eoie o} hqqlody+ Hy
ytie, o} ihk `kl gd ihlitlh}dm wd}w`yqdi}ordl ~edk }ed hi}thl qwoidy hwd hrholhgld+ Ok qwhi}oid, }edrhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw b`w hk qdwo`m fty} gd yd} ok hmrhkid, gdb`wd }ed mdroh}o`ky b`w }ed lh}dy}
qdwo`my hwd jk`~k+
Nordk }ed mdlh ok `g}hokokn qwoid mh}h hkm }ed ldhm&}ofdy wdxtowdm b`w ofqldfdk}h}o`k, o} oy lojdl
}eh} }ed lh}dy} hrholhgld mh}h ~oll gd }ewdd f`k}ey `lm+ B`w duhfqld, hyytfokn }eh} }ed y}hgoloydw b`w
Fhwie ~`tlm ehrd }` gd yd} ok dhwl Bdgwthw, }ed lh}dy} hrholhgld mh}h ~`tlm wdlh}d }` Mdidfgdw+
I`kydxtdk}l, o} oy kdidyyhw }` b`wdihy} }ed rhltdy `b }ed mdroh}o`ky b`w }ed lhy} }ewdd f`k}ey+
B`w}tkh}dl, }ed ydwohl i`wwdlh}o`k `b }ed mdroh}o`ky hll`~y }eoy }` gd m`kd ~o}e h wdhy`khgld mdnwdd
`b hiitwhi %ydd Hkkdu M/ hkm }edyd b`wdihy}y ihk }edk gd tydm ~o}e }ed hi}thl rhltdy b`w }ed
qwdidmokn f`k}ey}` ihlitlh}d h qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw rhltd+
Bontwd 9+2 i`fqhwdy }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw rhltdy ~o}e }ed wd}w`yqdi}ord rhltdy+ ]edwd oy h
wdhy`khgl y}w`kn wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed }~` rhltdy b`w }ed fhc`wo} `b }ed qdwo`m ~o}e }ed
i`wwdlh}o`k gd}~ddk }ed }~` }ofd ydwody gdokn 1+>=+ E`~drdw, }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw ehy }ed
oki`wwdi} yonk ok 98 `b }ed 8?4 i`ky}o}tdk} f`k}ey %o+d+ 82$/ duhidwgh}okn }ed mdroh}o`ky ok }e`yd
f`k}ey wh}edw }ehk h}}dkth}okn }edf hy ok}dkmdm+ ]eoy ~hy qhw}oitlhwl yonkoboihk} ok K`rdfgdw hkm
Mdidfgdw 7115 ~edk }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw bholdm }` wdbldi} }ed tkqwdidmdk}dm mdilokd ok iwtmd
`ol qwoidy ok }ed ydi`km ehlb `b }eh} dhw+ ^eold `kl `iitwwokn ok h yfhll fok`wo} `b ihydy, }ed
q`}dk}ohl b`w }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgolosdw }` duhidwgh}d }ed ofqhi}y `b }ed `ol qwoid r`lh}olo} oy h ydwo`ty
mwh~ghij+
&7111
&8111
1
8111
7111
8???
7118
7119
7114
711>
711?
Xthw}dwl rhltd Bord dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
17/33
84
Bontwd 9+2 I`fqhwoy`k `b wd}w`yqdi}ord hkm qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydwy qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l
%qdkid qdw lo}wd/
Mdyqo}d }ed wdhy`khgl n``m bo} }` }ed wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw, }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw oy ftie ldyy
dbbdi}ord h} wdf`rokn }ed r`lh}olo} ok }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %ydd Bontwd 9+>/+ O} wdf`rdy `kl 21$
`b }ed r`lh}olo} mtd }` }ed mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid bw`f o}y l`kn }dwf }wdkm i`fqhwdm }`
}ed 811$ wdf`rhl tkmdw }ed wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw %ydd Hkkdu M/ Btw}edwf`wd, hy k`}dm hg rd, ok
}e`yd f`k}ey ok ~eoie o} ehy }ed oki`wwdi} yonk, }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw hi}thll duhidwgh}dy }ed
r`lh}olo}+ ]eoy oy qhw}oitlhwl hqqhwdk} b w K`rdfgdw Mdidfgdw 7115+ Ob }edyd }~` tktythl
f`k}ey hwd `fo}}dm, }ed dbbdi}ordkdyy `b }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw ofqw`rdy }` 24$+
Bontwd 9+> Ofqhi} `b qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw `k }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l
%qdkid qdw lo}wd/
&71
&81
1
81
71
8??4
7111
7114
7181
Wd}w`yqdi}ord Qw`yqdi}ord
1
71
=1
21
8??4
7111
7114
7181
Hi}thl ^o}e y}hgolosdw L`kn wtk }wdkm
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
18/33
82
= I`kiltyo`ky
]ed wd}hol qwoid `b f`}`w btdly ehy woydk y}dhmol `rdw }ed lhy} }~dk} dhwy+ Mtwokn }ed 8??1y, }ed
woyd ok }ed qwoid ~hy mwordk g okiwdhydy ok btdl mt}+ @rdw }ed qhy} }dk dhwy, }ed woyd ehy gddkmwordk g }ed okiwdhydy ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd `ol+
]edwd oy h ildhw tq~hwm }wdkm ok }ed tkmdwlokn qwoid `b iwtmd `ol ~o}e h b`twb`lm okiwdhyd `rdw }ed
qhy} }dk dhwy+ ]eoy }wdkm ehy wdfhokdm y}hgld `rdw }ofd hkm }edwd oy k` wdhy`k }` duqdi} }eh} o} ~oll
k`} i`k}oktd ok }ed fdmotf }dwf %o+d+ `rdw }ed kdu} bord dhwy/+ E`~drdw, }edwd oy i`kyomdwhgld
r`lh}olo} hw`tkm }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid, ~o}e mdroh}o`ky tq }` 21$ ok do}edw mowdi}o`k+
]ed wdf`rhl `b }ed btdl mt} dyihlh}`w ok 8??? ehm h yonkoboihk} ofqhi} `k }ed }whcdi}`w `b qd}w`l
qwoidy `rdw }ed qhy} }dk dhwy+ Ob }ed dyihlh}`w ehm gddk i`k}oktdm }ew`tne }` }ed qwdydk}, }ed wd}hol
qwoid `b qd}w`l ~`tlm ehrd gddk i kyomdwhgl eonedw }ehk }ed itwwdk} ldrdl+ ]eoy ~`tlm ehrd
wdytl}dm ok h yonkoboihk} wdmti}o`k ok }ed mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly hkm edkid I@7 dfoyyo`kybw`f w`hm }whkyq`w} hkm h ytgy}hk}ohl okiwdhyd ok }ed wdrdktd whoydm bw`f btdl mt} hkm }ed
hyy`ioh}dm RH]+
Ok qhw}oitlhw, ob }ed dyihlh}`w ehm i`k}oktdm h} 2$ %}ed wh}d hqqlokn h} }ed }ofd `b o}y wdf`rhl/, }ed
wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l ~`tlm ehrd woydk }` `rdw 8?1 qdkid qdw lo}wd g }ed fommld
`b 7181+ Hkkthl mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly ~`tlm ehrd wdmtidm g hw`tkm h xthw}dw
i`fqhwdm }` }ed hi}thl bontwd, ~eold hkkthl I@7 dfoyyo`ky ~`tlm ehrd gddk 72 follo`k }`kkdy l`~dw,
~eoie ~`tlm ehrd wdqwdydk}dm h 4$ wdmti}o`k ok }ed TJy }`}hl dfoyyo`ky+ Btw}edwf`wd, }ed
hmmo}o`khl mt} RH] wdrdktd whoydm ok 7181 h} cty} `rdw 84 gollo`k ~`tlm ehrd gddk ytbboiodk}
}` wdmtid dfql`dwy kh}o`khl okytwhkid i`k}wogt}o`ky g hw`tkm 74$, `w wdmtid e`tyde`lm oki`fd}hu g hw`tkm 81$+ Hl}dwkh}ordl, }ed itftlh}ord hmmo}o`khl wdrdktd `rdw }ed mdihmd h} hw`tkm
811 gollo`k ~`tlm ehrd fhmd h fhc`w i`k}wogt}o`k }` wdmtiokn }ed itwwdk} gtmnd} mdboio}+
^eold }ed wdlh}o`kyeoq oy eonel mhfqdm, blti}th}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid m` bddm }ew`tne }` }ed
wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l+ ]eoy ihk ihtyd rdw yehwq ye`w}&}dwf okiwdhydy ok wd}hol qwoidy qhw}oitlhwl
~edk i`fgokdm ~o}e woyokn btdl mt} wh}dy+ E`~drdw, o} oy q`yyogld } oy`lh}d }ed ofqhi}y `b }ed ye`w}
}dwf mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid `k }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l hkm edkid mdyonk h btdl qwoid
y}hgoloydw }eh} ~oll `bbyd} }edf+
^o}e qdwbdi} jk`~ldmnd `b iwtmd `ol qwoidy, }ed y}hgoloydw ~oll wdf`rd hll `b }ed r`lh}olo}+ E`~drdw,
ok qwhi}oid, }ed rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw b`w hk qdwo`m fty} gd yd} ok hmrhkid, gdb`wd }ed mdroh}o`kyb`w }ed lh}dy} f`k}ey hwd jk`~k+ I`kydxtdk}l, o} oy kdidyyhw }` b`wdihy} }ed mdroh}o`ky %hkm edkid
}ed iwtmd `ol qwoidy/ b`w }edyd f`k}ey+ ^eold o} oy q`yyogld o} oy q`yyogld }` b`wdihy} }edyd mdroh}o`ky
~o}e h wdhy`khgld mdnwdd `b hiitwhi, }ed wdytl}hk} y}hgoloydw oy `kl ihqhgld `b wdf`rokn hw`tkm 21&
24$ `b }ed qwoid r`lh}olo}+ Btw}edwf`wd, ok y`fd f`k}ey, }ed y}hgoloydw ehy }ed oki`wwdi} yonk,
duhidwgh}okn }ed qwoid r`lh}olo} wh}edw }ehk h}}dkth}okn o} hy ok}dkmdm+ ]ed ydkyo}oro} `b }ed
y}hgoloydwy dbbdi}ordkdyy }` }ed hiitwhi `b }ed b`wdihy} mdroh}o`ky ok iwtmd `ol qwoidy fdhky }eh} }ed
rhltd ~`tlm ehrd }` gd hmcty}dm f`k}el hy }ed lh}dy} qwoid mh}h gdi`fdy hrholhgld+
]ed y}hgolosdw oy gw`hml wdrdktd kdt}whl `rdw hk bord&dhw qdwo`m+ E`~drdw, o} oy ofq`w}hk} }` k`}d
}eh} }eoy oy `kl gdihtyd o} i`fqdkyh}dy b`w }ed r`lh}olo} ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid hw`tkm o}y l`kn }dwftq~hwm }wdkm+ Hk h}}dfq} }` y}hgoloyd }ed qwoid `b qd}w`l h} h qhw}oitlhw ldrdl %ok do}edw k`fokhl `w
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
19/33
8>
wdhl }dwfy/ ~`tlm ehrd h yonkoboihk} kdnh}ord ofqhi} `k wdrdktdy+ B`w duhfqld, bwddsokn }ed qwoid b
qd}w`l ok wdhl }dwfy %o+d+ okiwdhyokn ok lokd ~o}e WQO/ h} o}y Mdidfgdw 7114 ldrdl %ydd Bontwd =+8/, ~`tlm
ehrd i`y} }ed n`rdwkfdk} h itftlh}ord 5+= gollo`k ok l`~dw mt} hkm RH] wdrdktdy g }ed fommld `b
7181+ ]ed i`y} ok hk qhw}oitlhw bokhkiohl dhw mdqdkmy `k }ed blti}th}o`ky ok }ed ol qwoid, gt} o}
~`tlm ehrd gddk hy eone hy 9+2 gollo`k ok 7115&?+ Btw}edwf`wd, }ed wdytl}hk} okiwdhydm
i`kytfq}o`k ~`tlm ehrd ndkdwh}dm hk hmmo}o`khl 82 follo`k }`kkdy `b I@7+
Bontwd =+8 Mdi`fq`yo}o`k b wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
Bw`sdk ok wdhl }dwfy bw`f Mdidfgdw 7114 `k~hwmy
Ob }ed qwoid ehm gddk boudm ok k`fokhl }dwfy %o+d+ ~o}e k` okiwdhyd b`w ndkdwhl okblh}o`k/ }edk }ed
ofqhi}y ~`tlm ehrd gddk yonkoboihk}l nwdh}dw, ~o}e wdrdktd wdmtiokn g h itftlh}ord 79 gollo`k g
}ed fommld `b 7181 %>+? gollo`k ok 7115&?/ hkm itftlh}ord I@7 dfoyyo`ky okiwdhyokn g 79 follo`k
}`kkdy+
1
91
21
?1
871
841
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
RH] Btdl mt} Wdbokokn 'rhltd hmmdm' Iwtmd ol Hi}thl
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
20/33
85
Wdbdwdkidy
I`kydwrh}ord Qhw} %7115/H Bhow Btdl Y}hgoloydw3 h i`kytl}h}o`k `k }ed bt}twd `b btdl }huh}o`k, Ctl
7115, I`kydwrh}ord Qhw}, L`km`k
N``m~ok, Q+, Mhwnh, C+ " Ehkl, F+ %711=/ Dlhy}oio}ody `b W`hm ]whbboi hkm Btdl I`kytfq}o`k ~o}e
Wdyqdi} }` qwoid hkm Oki`fd3 H Wdrod~, ]whkyq`w} Wdrod~y, R`l+ 7=, K`+ 9 %7>4&7?7/
Nwddk Boyihl I`ffoyyo`k %711?/ Ldyy`ky bw`f ]~` Nwddk ]hu Yeob}y ok }ed Tko}dm Joknm`f, Gwodbokn
Qhqdw @kd, Fhwie 711?, Q`loi Y}tmody Oky}o}t}d, L`km`k
E`tyd `b I`ff`ky %7111/ W`hm btdl qwoid hkm }huh}o`k, Wdydhwie Qhqdw 112?, 87 Ctl 7111
Jdkkdm, Q+ %7119/H Ntomd }` Di`k`fd}woiy, Bob}e Dmo}o`k, Glhij~dll Qtgloyeokn
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
21/33
8?
Hkkdu H Wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk iwtmd `ol qwoid hkm wd}hol
qwoid `b qd}w`l
]ed wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l %o+d+ }ed du&wdbokdw qwoid/ h} }ofd } hkm }ed
y}dwlokn qwoid `b iwtmd `ol oy hyytfdm }` }hjd }ed ht}`wdnwdyyord b`wf3
q} 6 h * g x} * i q}&8 * m }} * } %8/
~edwd q oy }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
x oy }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
} oy h }ofd }wdkm rhwohgld %duqwdyydm ok dhwy/
wdqwdydk}y }edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy okbltdkiokn qwoid { KZ1,V
h, g, i, m hwd qhwhfd}dwy
]ed lhnndm qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l `b qd}w`l %q}&8/ oy okiltmdm hy hk duqlhkh}`w rhwohgld }` hll`~ b`w
}ed q`yyogolo} }eh} }ed qwoid m`dy k`} hmcty} offdmoh}dl }` iehkndy ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid+
]ed ye`w}&wtk ofqhi} `k }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid `b h iehknd }` }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid oy nordk g3
mq}m}
g
]ed l`kn&wtk dxtologwotf ofqhi} %o+d+ ~edk q} 6 q}&8 6 q/ `b h y}dq iehknd ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid oy nordk
g3
mq
m
g
8 i
]ed qhwhfd}dwy ~dwd dy}ofh}dm di`k`fd}woihll b`w qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l tyokn f`k}el qwoid
mh}h qtgloyedm ok }ed Ctkd 7181 dmo}o`k `bXthw}dwl Dkdwn Qwoidy %MDII/+ Hy oy `b}dk }ed ihyd ~o}e
ht}`wdnwdyyord f`mdly, }ed wdyomthly %/ dueogo} ydwohl i`wwdlh}o`k hkm edkid qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy
mdwordm tkmdw y}hkmhwm @LY dy}ofh}o`k hwd gohydm hkm oki`kyoy}dk}+ I`kydxtdk}l, }ed dxth}o`k
~hy dy}ofh}dm tyokn }ed Eh}hkhjh }~`&y}dq qw`idmtwd b`w ht}`wdnwdyyord f`mdly ~o}e ydwohl
i`wwdlh}o`k %ydd Jdkkdm, 7119/+ ]ed wdytl}hk} qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy hwd ye`~k ok ]hgld H8, hl kn
~o}e }edow wdyqdi}ord }&y}h}oy}oiy hkm q&rhltdy, hkm }ed W&yxthwdm rhltd b`w }ed }whkyb`wfdm dxth}o`k+
]hgld H8 Qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy3 qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l
Rhwohgld Qhwhfd}dw Dy}ofh}d }&y}h}oy}oi q&rhltd
I`ky}hk} h 2+945 81+91 < 1+118
Iwtmd `ol qwoid g 1+5>2 85+78 < 1+118
Lhnndm qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid i 1+8>> =+9? < 1+118
]ofd }wdkm m &1+121 &1+54 1+=1
W7
6 1+5>
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
22/33
71
^o}e }ed duidq}o`k `b }ed }ofd }wdkm, hll `b }ed i`dbboiodk}y hwd eonel yonkoboihk} hkm }ed dy}ofh}dm
dxth}o`k duqlhoky 5>$ `b }ed rhwoh}o`k ok }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l %b`w }ed
}whkyb`wfdm f`mdl/+ ]eoy oy wdbldi}dm ok Bontwd H8, ~eoie ye`~y h il`yd bo} gd}~ddk }ed f`mdlldm
rhltdy ~o}e }ed hi}thl qwd&}hu qwoidy `rdw }ed qdwo`m+
Bontwd H8 I`fqhwoy`k `b hi}thl hkm bo}}dm qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoidy b`w qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l
%qdkid qdw lo}wd/
]ed dy}ofh}dm ye`w}&wtk ofqhi} `b h iehknd }` }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid oy 1+55 o+d+ hw`tkm ?1$ `b hk
okiwdhyd ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd `ol oy qhyydm `k offdmoh}dl ok }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l+ ]ed
dy}ofh}dm l`kn&wtk ofqhi} oy 8+12 %o+d+ 1+55 %8 1+85/+ ]eoy oy k`} yonkoboihk}l mobbdwdk} bw`f kd,
ofqlokn }eh} ok }ed l`kn&wtk, hk iehknd ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd `ol oy qhyydm `k ok btll+
]ed ye`w} wtk dlhy}oio} `b }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid ~o}e wdyqdi} }` }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid oy3
mq}m}
}q}
g 8 f} ~edwd f} oy }ed qdwidk}hnd fhwj&tq ok qdwo`m }+
Gdihtyd `b }ed lokdhw wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid hkm }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l %8/, }ed
fhwj&tq rhwody `rdw }ofd+ ^eold }edwd oy i`kyomdwhgld rhwoh}o`k bw`f f`k}e }` f`k}e, }edwd ehy
gddk h ndkdwhl mdilokd `rdw }ed qhy} }~dk} dhwy %ydd Bontwd H7/ ~o}e }ed fhwj&tq b`w qwdfotf
tkldhmdm qd}w`l bhllokn bw`f hw`tkm 841$ } hw`tkm =1$+ ]eoy oy wdbldi}dm ok hk okiwdhyd ok }ed
ye`w} wtk dlhy}oio} `rdw }eh} qdwo`m bw`f 1+92 }` 1+27+
1
71
=1
21
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
Bo}}dm Hi}thl
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
23/33
78
Bontwd H7 Qdwidk}hnd fhwj&tq3 qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l rdwyty iwtmd `ol qwoid
]ed wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed qwd&}hu qwoid hkm }ed wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l oy nordk g3
w} 6 %8 * r}/ Z q} * m} V %7/
~edwd w oy }ed wd}hol qd}w`l qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
q oy }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
r oy }ed RH] $
m oy }ed btdl mt} wh}d %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
Hyytfokn }eh} }ed btdl mt} wh}d oy yd} okmdqdkmdk}l `b }ed qwoid `b iwtmd `ol }edk }ed ye`w}&wtk hkm
l`kn&wtk ofqhi}y `k }ed wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l `b h iehknd }` }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid hwd wdyqdi}ordl3
mw}m}
8 r} mq}m} 8 r}g mwm g8 i ]ety, }ed ofqhi}y `k }ed wd}hol qwoid hwd dxthl }` }ed ofqhi}y `k }ed qwd&}hu qwoid, nw`yydm tq b`w
RH]+
]ed ye`w} wtk dlhy}oio} `b }ed wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l ~o}e wdyqdi} }` }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid oy3
m}m}
}w}
g 8 f} 8 } ~edwd } 6 m} q} oy }ed rhltd `b btdl mt} hy h qw`q`w}o`k `b }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %o+d+ }ed btdl
mt} fhwj&tq+
]ety, }ed btdl mt} hi}y } mhfqdk }ed dbbdi} `b }ed iehkndy ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd `ol+ Hnhok, }ed
rhltd `b} rhwody `rdw }ofd yokid }ed btdl mt} `kl iehkndy qdwo`moihll ~eold }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l
qwoid iehkndy i`k}okt`tyl %ydd Bontwd H7/+ @rdw }ed 8??1y o} okiwdhydm bw`f cty} `rdw 811$ }` 411$hy btdl mt} okiwdhydm tkmdw }ed dyihlh}`w+ B`ll`~okn }ed wdf`rhl `b }ed dyihlh}`w, o} mdilokdm
1$
41$
811$
841$
711$
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
Fhwj&tq
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
24/33
77
yehwql hkm ehy hrdwhndm hw`tkm 841$ ok wdidk} dhwy+ I`kydxtdk}l, }ed ye`w} wtk dlhy}oio} `b }ed
wd}hol qd}w`l qwoid mdilokdm bw`f 1+85 }` 1+12 ok 8???, gdb`wd woyokn }` o}y itwwdk} rhltd `b 1+72+
Bontwd H9 Btdl mt} hkm qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
1$
811$
711$
911$
=11$
411$
211$
1
71
=1
21
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
Qd}w`l qwd&}hu Btdl Mt} Fhwj&tq $ %LEY/
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
25/33
79
Hkkdu G L`kn wtk }wdkm b`w iwtmd `ol qwoid
]ed qwoid `b iwtmd `ol h} }ofd } oy hyytfdm }` gd nordk g3
x} 6 x
} * } x
} 6 * } * }
7 %9/
~edwd
x oy }ed l`kn&wtk }wdkm qwoid `b iwtmd `ol %qdkid qdw lo}wd/ oy }ed ye`w}&wtk mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed }wdkm qwoid, { KZ1,V
]ed qhwhfd}dwy hwd dy}ofh}dm di`k`fd}woihll tyokn f`k}el qwoid mh}h qtgloyedm ok }ed Ctkd 7181
dmo}o`k `bXthw}dwl Dkdwn Qwoidy %MDII/+ ]ed wdytl}hk} qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy hwd ye`~k ok ]hgld G8,
hl`kn ~o}e }edow wdyqdi}ord }&y}h}oy}oiy hkm q&rhltdy, hkm }ed W7
rhltd b`w }ed dxth}o`k+ ^eold }ed
wdyomthly hw`tkm }ed bo}}dm rhltdy %d} 6 x}}/ dueogo} yonkoboihk} ht}`i`wwdlh}o`k %ydd Bontwd G8/, }eddy}ofh}dm qhwhfd}dw rhltdy hwd tkgohydm hkm i`kyoy}dk}+
89I`kydxtdk}l, }ed dy}ofh}dm }wdkm qwoid
rhltdy ihlitlh}dm tyokn }edyd dy}ofh}dy hwd hly` tkgohydm hkm i`kyoy}dk}+
]hgld G8 Qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy
Rhwohgld Qhwhfd}dw Dy}ofh}d }&y}h}oy}oi q&rhltd
I`ky}hk} 5+244 89+45 < 1+118
]ofd ok f`k}ey %Chk 8??8 6 1/ &8+818 &>+72 < 1+118
]ofd yxthwdm 1+871 84+?1 < 1+118
W7
6 1+54
Bontwd G8 Wdyomthly %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
89Ht}`i`wwdlh}o`k ihtydy }ed W
7rhltd hkm }ed }&y}h}oy}oiy b`w }ed dy}ofh}dy }` gd `rdwy}h}dm %hkm edkid
}ed q&rhltdy }` gd tkmdwy}h}dm/+
&71
&81
1
81
71
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
26/33
7=
O} oy hyytfdm }eh} }ed ht}`i`wwdlh}o`k `b }ed wdyomthl }dwf %o+d+ }ed mdroh}o`k/ oy HW%9/, o+d+
d} 6 8 d}&8 * 7 d}&7 * 9 d}&9 * } ~edwd { KZ1,V %=/
]ed rhltdy `b }ed qhwhfd}dwy hwd dy}ofh}dm di`k`fd}woihll tyokn }ed wdyomthly bw`f }ed dy}ofh}o`k
`b }ed }wdkm dxth}o`k %9/+ ]ed wdytl}hk} qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy hwd ye`~k ok ]hgld G7, hl`kn ~o}e }edowwdyqdi}ord }&y}h}oy}oiy hkm q&rhltdy hkm }ed W
7rhltd b`w }ed dxth}o`k+ Hll `b }ed i`dbboiodk}y hwd
yonkoboihk} hkm }ed dxth}o`k duqlhoky hlf`y} ?1$ `b }ed rhwoh}o`k ok }ed wdyomthly+
]hgld G8 Qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy
Rhwohgld Qhwhfd}dw Dy}ofh}d }&y}h}oy}oi q&rhltd
d}&8 8 8+721 8?+8? < 1+118
d}&7 7 &1+74> &7+=4 1+184
d}&9
9 &1+897 &7+11 1+1=>
W7
6 1+55
]ed rhltdy `b }ed qhwhfd}dwy ok }ed }wdkm qwoid dxth}o`k %9/ ehrd wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl y}hgld `rdw
}ofd, ~o}e rdw lo}}ld mobbdwdkid gd}~ddk }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm lokdy ihlitlh}dm tyokn }ed mh}h tq }`
}ed dkm `b 7114 hkm tyokn }ed mh}h tq }` Ctkd 7181 %ydd Bontwd G7/+
Bontwd G7 Y}hgolo} b l`kn wtk }wdkm qwoid `b iwtmd `ol
Mdk`}okn }ed qdwidk}hnd mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed bo}}dm }wdkm qwoid %}/ g n} }edk3
D%n}/ 6 DZ % x} } / } V 6 D% x} } / 8
K`}okn }eh} }ed rhltd `b x} oy boudm ok wdqdh}dm yhfqlokn hkm }eh} }ed okrdwyd btki}o`k oy y}woi}l
i`krdu, }edk g Cdkydky okdthlo}3
1
81
71
91
=1
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
]wdkm 8??8&7114 ]wdkm 8??8&7181
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
27/33
74
D%n}/ ; x} D %} / 8 6 x} x}/ 8 6 1
]ety, }ed duqdi}dm rhltd `b }ed qdwidk}hnd mdroh}o`k h} h qhw}oitlhw q`ok} ok }ofd oy nwdh}dw }ehk
sdw`+ @b i`twyd, ok hk qhw}oitlhw yhfqld, o} fh gd q`yo}ord w kdnh}ord+ Btw}edwf`wd, }ed fdhk
rhltd hiw`yy }ofd qdwo`my oy k`} ndkdwhll dxthl }` sdw`: tklojd }ed fdhk rhltd `b }ed hgy`lt}d
mdroh}o`k %d/, ~eoie oy hl~hy dxthl }` sdw` g i`ky}wti}o`k tkmdw @LY+ +
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
28/33
72
Hkkdu I Ihlitlh}okn btdl mdfhkm tkmdw hyytfq}o`k `b
i`k}oktdm mt} dyihlh}`w
]ed mdfhkm b`w btdl h} }ofd } oy }qoihll hyytfdm }` gd nordk g3
lk%X}/ 6 lk%h/ * g lk%q}/ * i lk%_}/ * m lk%X}&8/ * } %4/
~edwd X oy }ed }`}hl xthk}o} `b btdl i`kytfdm %follo`k lo}wdy/
q oy }ed wdhl wd}hol qwoid `b btdl %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
_ oy }ed ldrdl `b di`k`foi hi}oro} oki`fd %o+d+ wdhl NMQ/
wdqwdydk}y `}edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy okbltdkiokn mdfhkm { KZ1,V
h, g, i, m hwd qhwhfd}dwy
]ed ye`w}&wtk qwoid dlhy}oio} `b mdfhkm oy nordk g }ed qhwhfd}dw g: ~eold }ed l`kn&wtk dlhy}oio} oy
nordk g g %8 m/+
Mdk`}okn }ed hi}thl rhwohgld rhltdy g }ed ytqdwyiwoq} # hkm }ed rhltdy tkmdw }ed i`k}oktdm btdl
mt} dyihlh}`w %bw`f }ofd } 6 ]/ g }ed ytqdwyiwoq} ) }edk, hyytfokn }eh} }ed i`k}okth}o`k `b }ed
dyihlh}`w ~`tlm k`} ehrd ehm hk ofqhi} `k }ed ldrdl `b di`k`foi hi}oro} %`w hk `}edw tkomdk}obodm
bhi}`wy okbltdkiokn mdfhkm/, o} b`ll`~y }eh}3
X}# X})
6 %q}# q})/
g%X}&8# X}&8
)/
m } ], ]8, ]7, %2/
I`kydxtdk}l, }ed qdwidk}hnd ofqhi} `k mdfhkm ok dhie }ofd qdwo`m ihk gd ihlitlh}dm o}dwh}ordl,
k`}okn }eh} }ed rhltd `b X]&8# X]&8)
6 8 g mdboko}o`k+
]ed rhltdy `b }ed qhwhfd}dwy g hkm m hwd mdwordm bw`f }ed rhltdy qw`romdm ok }ed wdrod~ `b qwoid
dlhy}oio}ody tkmdw}hjdk b`w }ed Mdqhw}fdk} `b ]whkyq`w} g N``m~ok d} hl%711=/+ Ye`w} }dwf hkm
l`kn }dwf qwoid dlhy}oio}ody b`w btdl i`kytfq}o`k hrdwhndm &1+74 hkm &1+2= wdyqdi}ordl %ydd ]hgld I8/,
ofqlokn }eh} g 6 &1+74 hkm m 6 1+28 %o+d+ 8 1+74 1+2=/+ E`~drdw, }edyd rhltdy wdlh}d }` hkkthl
mh}h %o+d+ }ed ye`w} }dwf dlhy}oio} nordy }ed ofqhi} hb}dw `kd dhw/ hkm kddm }` gd i`krdw}dm }`
dxtorhldk} xthw}dwl rhltdy hy b`ll`~y3
mX 6 m1+74
6 1+55= gX 6 g % 8 m1+74
/ % 8 m / 6 1+1>4
]hgld I8 Qwoid dlhy}oio} `b btdl i`kytfq}o`k
Ye`w} }dwf L`kn }dwf
Fdhk dlhy}oio} & 1+74 & 1+2=
Fhuoftf & 1+4> & 8+58
Fokoftf & 1+18 & 1+11
Ktfgdw `b dy}ofh}dy =2 48
Y`twid3 N``m~ok d} hl%711=/
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
29/33
7>
Hkkdu M Mdyonk `b btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw
h/ Wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw
I`fgokokn dxth}o`ky %8/ hkm %9/ hkm ytgy}o}t}okn }ed qhwhfd}dwy ~o}e }edow wdyqdi}ord dy}ofh}dm
rhltdy nordy3
q} 6 g % x} * d} / q}&8 m }} * ~} %>/~edwd q oy }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
x oy }ed bo}}dm l kn&wtk }wdkm qwoid `b iwtmd `ol %qdkid qdw lo}wd/} oy h }ofd }wdkm
d oy }ed ye`w}&wtk mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed bo}}dm }wdkm qwoid
~ wdqwdydk}y `}edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy okbltdkiokn qwd&}hu qwoid
, g, , m hwd }ed dy}ofh}dm qhwhfd}dw rhltdy
Gt} k`}okn }eh} q}&8 6 g% x}&8 * d} / q}&7 m }}&8 * ~}&8 d}i+, o} b`ll`~y }eh}q} 6 % h# m }#} / g x#} g d#} * ~#} %5/~edwd h# 6 Z 8 * i * i
7* i
9 V
x
#} 6 x
} x
}&8
7x
}&7
9x
}&9 *
}#} 6 }} }}&8 7 }}&7 9 }}&9 * d#} 6 d} d}&8 7 d}&7 9 d}&9 * ~#} 6 ~} ~}&8
7~}&7
9~}&9 *
]ety, }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l ihk gd mdi`fq`ydm ok}` h }ofd&rhwokn i`ky}hk} }dwf %H}/ hkm }ewdd
}dwfy wdqwdydk}okn }ed yf``}edm8=
okbltdkid b3
}ed l`kn wtk iwtmd `ol qwoid %G} 6 g x#}/ ye`w} }dwf mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid %I} 6 g d#} / `}edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy % M} 6 ~#} /
]ed dy}ofh}dm rhltd `b }ed yf``}eokn qhwhfd}dw oy 1+988 %ydd ]hgld H8/+ I`kydxtdk}l, }ed
~done}okn bhi}`wy xtoijl bhll il`yd }` sdw` hkm edkid, ok qwhi}oid, }ed yf``}edm rhltdy ihk gd
ihlitlh}dm hy boko}d ytffh}o`ky `rdw }ed lhy} }~dlrd f`k}ey+
]ed okbltdkid `b }ed ye`w} }dwf mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid ihk }edwdb`wd gd wdf`rdm g
ok}w`mtiokn h y}hgoloydw3
y} 6 gd#} g Z d} d}&8 7
d}&7 K
d}&K V %?/
8=]ed hwd dxthl }` }ed duq`kdk}ohll ~done}dm f`rokn hrdwhndy ftl}oqlodm g 8 %8 i/+
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
30/33
75
]ety, }ed rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw mdqdkmy k`} `kl `k }ed mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed }wdkm qwoid ok }ed
itwwdk} qdwo`m, gt} hly` }ed mdroh}o`ky ok qwdro`ty qdwo`my+ O} oy q`yo}ord %o+d+ dxtorhldk} }` h }hu/
~edk }ed %yf``}edm/ mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed l`kn }dwf iwtmd `ol }wdkm qwoid oy kdnh}ord %o+d+ #} < 1/+ O} oy
kdnh}ord %o+d+ dxtorhldk} }` h ytgyom/ ~edk }ed mdroh}o`k oy q`yo}ord %o+d+ #} ; 1/+
K`}okn }eh} D%d/ 6 D%/ 6 1, }ed duqdi}dm rhltd %fdhk/ hkm rhwohkid `b }ed y}hgoloydw hwd wdyqdi}ordl3
D%y}/ 6 g D%d#}/ 6 gZ D%d}/ D%d}&8/ 7
D%d}&7/ K
D%d}&K/ V 6 1
Rhw%y}/ 6 g7
Z RdV
~edwd 6 % 8, , 7, , K /
Rd 6 i`rd},d} i`rd},d}& i`r
d}&
,d}
i`r
d}&
,d}&
Btw}edwf`wd, yokid }ed i`fq`kdk} wdyomthly hwd ydwohll i`wwdlh}dm %ydd Hkkdu G/, o} b`ll`~y }eh} }ed
y}hgoloydw rhltdy hwd hly` ydwohll i`wwdlh}dm ~o}e }ed yhfd HW%9/ b`wf o+d+
y} 6 gZ d} d}&8 7 d}&7
K d}&K V
6 gZ % 8 d}&8 * 7 d}&7 * 9 d}&9 * r} / % 8 d}&7 * 7 d}&9 * 9 d}&= * r}&8 /
7 % 8 d}&9 * 7 d}&= * 9 d}&4 * r}&7 / K
% 8 d}&K&8 * 7 d}&K&7 * 9 d}&K&9 * r}&K / V
6 gZ 8 % d}&8 d}&7 7 d}&9 K d}&K&8 / * 7 % d}&7 d}&9 7 d}&= K d}&K&7 /
* 9 % d}&9 d}&= 7
d}&4 K
d}&K&9 / * % r} r}&8 7
r}&7 K
r}&K / V
6 8 y}&8 * 7 y}&7 * 9 y}&9 g r#} %81P
]ety, }ed y}hgoloydw b`ll`~y }ed yhfd iiloihl qh}}dwk hy }ed mdroh}o`ky bw`f }wdkm iwtmd `ol qwoid+
]ed F&qdwo`m f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw oy nordk g3
y} 6 Z d} * d}&8 * d}&7 d}&F*8 V F %88/
O} b`ll`~y mowdi}l }eh} }ed duqdi}dm rhltd `b }ed f`rokn hrdwhnd oy sdw` hkm }ed rhwohkid oy nordk g3
hw%y}/ 6 Z o Ry oV F7
~edwd o 6 % 8, 8 , 8, , 8 /
Ry 6 i`ry},y} i`ry},y}& i`ry}&,y} i`ry}&,y}&
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
31/33
7?
]ety, }ed rhwohkid `b }ed f`rokn hrdwhnd oy dxthl }` }ed hrdwhnd i`rhwohkid hiw`yy hll FF
i`fgokh}o`ky `b }ed lhnndm y}hgoloydw rhltdy+ ]hgld I8 ye`~y }ed rhltdy `b }ed rhwohkid b`w }ed
y}hgoloydw hkm b`w }ed f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltdy `rdw 9, 4 hkm 5 dhwy }`nd}edw ~o}e }ed hrdwhnd,
fokoftf hkm fhuoftf rhltdy+ ]ed rhwoh}o`k ok }ed f`rokn hrdwhnd bhlly xtoijl hy }ed ldkn}e `b
}ed hrdwhnokn qdwo`m okiwdhydy: ~o}e }ed fhnko}tmd `b }ed bord&dhw hrdwhnd blti}th}okn g ldyy }ehk
}ewdd qdkid hw`tkm sdw`+
]hgld I8 Rhwohkid b y}hgoloydw hkm f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltdy %qdkid qdw lo}wd/
Y}hgoloydwF`rokn Hrdwhnd
9 _dhwy 4 _dhwy 5 _dhwy
Fdhk &1+1> &1+1? 1+88 1+85
Rhwohkid 89+4> 8+91 1+>8 1+41
Fokoftf &8>+17 &9+99 &8+95 &1+24
Fhuoftf 81+=1 7+=8 8+8? 8+12
Yqwdhm 7>+=7 4+>= 7+4> 8+>8
g/ Qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw
Ok qwhi}oid, }ed rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw b`w hk qdwo`m fty} gd yd} ok hmrhkid, gdb`wd }ed mdroh}o`ky %d/
b`w }ed lh}dy} qdwo`my hwd jk`~k+ Nordk }ed mdlh ok `g}hokokn qwoid mh}h hkm }ed ldhm&}ofdy
wdxtowdm b`w ofqldfdk}h}o`k, o} oy lojdl }eh} }ed lh}dy} hrholhgld mh}h ~oll gd }ewdd f`k}ey `lm %o+d+
~oll wdlh}d }` qdwo`m }&9/+ E`~drdw, o} oy q`yyogld } tyd }ed tyd }ed ydwohl i`wwdlh}o`k `b }ed
mdroh}o`ky %hy mdbokdm g dxth}o`k %=/ ok Hkkdu G/ }` i`ky}wti} b`wdihy} rhltdy %fhmd h} }ofd }&9/ b`w}ed lhy} }ewdd qdwo`my, o+d+
}&7 6 8 d}&9 * 7 d}&= * 9 d}&4
}&8 6 8 }&7 * 7 d}&9 * 9 d}&=
} 6 8 }&8 * 7 }&7 * 9 d}&9
^eold }ed b`wdihy}y gdi`fd ytiidyyordl ldyy hiitwh}d, }ed bokhl b`wdihy} %b`w qdwo`m }/ y}oll qw`romdy h
wdhy`khgl n``m bo} }` }ed hi}thl mdroh}o`ky ok f`y} qdwo`my %ydd Bontwd M8 gdl`~/ ~o}e h
i`wwdlh}o`k i`dbboiodk} b`w }ed }~` }ofd ydwody `b 1+>1+
Tyokn }edyd b`wdihy} rhltdy b`w }ed mdroh}o`ky, h qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw ihk gd ihlitlh}dm hy843
} 6 gZ } }&8 7 }&7
9d}&9
Kd}&K V %87/
84
O} oy hly` q`yyogld }` tyd }ed ydwohl i`wwdlh}o`k `b }ed y}hgoloydw rhltdy %hy mdbokdm g dxth}o`k 81/ }`b`wdihy} }ed y}hgoloydw rhltdy mowdi}l+ E`~drdw, tyokn }ed b`wdihy} mdroh}o`ky oy ylone}l f`wd hiitwh}d
hkm wdxtowdy fokofhl hmmo}o`khl i`fqt}h}o`k+
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
32/33
91
Bontwd M8 I`fqhwoy`k `b hi}thl mdroh}o`ky ~o}e b`wdihy} rhltdy fhmd }ewdd f`k}ey dhwlodw
%qdkid qdw lo}wd/
Bontwd M7 i`fqhwdy }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw rhltdy ~o}e }ed i`wwdyq`kmokn wd}w`yqdi}ord rhltdy
`rdw }ed qdwo`m Hqwol 8??= Ctkd 7181+ ]edwd oy h wdhy`khgl y}w`kn wdlh}o kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed }~`
rhltdy b`w }ed fhc`wo} `b }ed qdwo`m }ed i`wwdlh}o`k gd}~ddk }ed }~` }ofd ydwody oy 1+>=+ E`~drdw,
}ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw ehy }ed oki`wwdi} yonk ok 98 `b }ed 8?4 i`ky}o}tdk} f`k}ey %o+d+ 82$/
duhidwgh}okn }ed mdroh}o`ky wh}edw }ehk h}}dkth}okn }edf hy ok}dkmdm+ Ok f`y} ihydy, }ed
fhnko}tmd `b }ed mobbdwdkid ~hy ldyy }ehk 7 qdkid %d+n+ }ed wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgolosdw rhltd oy qlty 8
qdkid wh}edw }ehk fokty 8 qdkid, d}i+/+ E`~drdw, ok y fd ihydy o} oy yonkoboihk}+ Ok qhw}oitlhw, ok
K`rdfgdw hkm Mdidfgdw 7115, }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw bholdm }` wdbldi} }ed tkqwdidmdk}dm
mdilokd ok iwtmd `ol qwoidy %}ed mdroh}o`k rhltd bhllokn bw`f qlty 82 qdkid ok Ctkd }` fokty 81 qdkid
ok Mdidfgdw/ hkm edkid wdfhokdm yonkoboihk}l q`yo}ord wh}edw }ehk iehknokn yonk hy wdxtowdm+
Bontwd M7 I`fqhwoy`k `b wd}w`yqdi}ord hkm qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw rhltdy %qdkid qdw lo}wd/%h/
%I`wwdlh}o`k 6 1+>=/
%h/ Wd}w`yqdi}ord rhltd k rdw}oihl huoy, qw`yqdi}ord rhltd k e`wos`k}hl huoy
&71
&81
1
81
71
8??8
8??2
7118
7112
Hi}thl B`wdihy} %&9/
&71
&84
&81
&4
1
4
81
84
71
&71 &84 &81 &4 1 4 81 84 71
Mdi 15
K`r 15
7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser
33/33
]ed dbbdi}ordkdyy `b }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw ok wdf`rokn }ed r`lh}olo} ok }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid
mtd }ed mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid bw`f o}y l`kn wtk }wdkm ihk gd fdhytwdm g3
y} g d}
gd}
G mdboko}o`k, 6 1 ok }ed hgydkid `b hk y}hgoloydw, ~eold 6 8 b`w }ed wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw %yokid
y} gd#} 6 1/+ B`w }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw, 6 1+2+ ]eh} oy, o} wdf`rdy 21$ `b }ed r`lh}olo} mtd }`
}ed blti}th}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid+