Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser

7/31/2019 Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser

1/33

W`hm }whkyq`w} btdl qwoidy, mdfhkm hkm

}hu wdrdktdy3 ofqhi} `b btdl mt}

dyihlh}`w hkm qwoid y}hgoloydw

W`ndw Yhlf`ky

Q`loi Y}tmody Oky}o}t}d

Bdgwthw 7188


2/33

W`hm }whkyq`w} btdl qwoidy, mdfhkm hkm }hu wdrdktdy3 ofqhi} `b btdl mt} dyihlh}`w hkm

qwoid y}hgoloydw ~hy ~wo}}dk g Mw W`ndw Yhlf`ky hkm qtgloyedm g Q`loi Y}tmody

Oky}o}t}d+

W`ndw Yhlf`ky oy h Ydko`w Wdydhwie Bdll`~ ok }ed Dkrow`kfdk} Nw`tq h} Q`loi Y}tmody

Oky}o}t}d+

]eoy gwodbokn ehy gddk qw`mtidm hy h qhw} `b h c`ok} qw`cdi} gd}~ddk Q`loi Y}tmody

Oky}o}t}d hkm Nwddk Hllohkid }` mdrdl`q }ed bokmokny `b }ed Nwddk Boyihl I`ffoyyo`k

~eoie ~dwd qtgloyedm ok o}y bokhl wdq`w} ]ed Ihyd b`w Nwddk Boyihl Wdb`wf ok @i}`gdw

711?+ Q`loi Y}tmody Oky}o}t}d qw`romdm }ed Ydiwd}hwoh} b`w }ed Nwddk Boyihl I`ffoyyo`k

hkm btll md}holy `b }ed I`ffoyyo`ky ~`wj hwd hrholhgld bw`f3

~~~+nwddkboyihli`ffoyyo`k+`wn+tj+

Q`loi Y}tmody Oky}o}t}d

41 Ehky`k Y}wdd}

L`km`k

^8^ 2TQ

171 >?88 >411

~~~+qyo+`wn+tj

Nwddk Hllohkid

92 Gtijoknehf Qhlhid W`hm

L`km`k

Y^8^ 1WD

171 >799 >=99

~~~+nwddk&hllohkid+`wn+tj

7188 Q`loi Y}tmody Oky}o}t}d

^d hwd nwh}dbtl b`w }ed ytqq`w} }eoy ~`wj ehy wdidordm bw`f }ed Dyfd Bhowghowk

B`tkmh}o`k hkm Hyemdk ]wty}+
http://www.greenfiscalcommission.org.uk/http://www.greenfiscalcommission.org.uk/http://www.psi.org.uk/http://www.psi.org.uk/http://www.green-alliance.org.uk/http://www.green-alliance.org.uk/http://www.green-alliance.org.uk/http://www.psi.org.uk/http://www.greenfiscalcommission.org.uk/


3/33

8

I`k}dk}y

Ok}w`mti}o`k ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 7

8 ]wdkmy ok w hm }whkyq`w} btdl qwoidy, mdfhkm hkm }hudy ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 9

8+8 Btdl qwoidy +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 9

8+7 Btdl mdfhkm +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ =

8+9 Btdl }hudy ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 4

7 Ofqhi} `b btdl mt} dyihlh}`w wdf`rhl ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ >

9 Btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 81

9+8 Mdi`fq`yo}o`k `b iwtmd òl qwoid ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 81

9+7 Mdyonk `b qwoid y}hgoloydw +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 88

9+9 Wdrdktd ofqloih}o`ky ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 89

9+= Qwhi}oihl i`kyomdwh}o`ky ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 8=

= I`kiltyo`ky +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 82

Wdbdwdkidy ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 85

Hkkdu H Wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk iwtmd òl qwoid hkm wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 8?

Hkkdu G L`kn wtk }wdkm b`w iwtmd òl qwoid ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 79

Hkkdu I Ihlitlh}okn btdl mdfhkm tkmdw hyytfq}o`k b i`k}oktdm mt} dyihlh}`w +++++++++++++++++++++++ 72

Hkkdu M Mdyonk `b btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 7>


4/33

7

Ok}w`mti}o`k

]hudy `k w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly hwd hk ofq`w}hk} y`twid `b wdrdktd b w }ed n`rdwkfdk}+ Ok 711?&81,

btdl mt} %hkm }ed hyyìoh}dm RH]/ hf`tk}dm }` 7? gollo`k, hw`tkm 2$ `b }`}hl wdrdktd+ E`~drdw,

btdl mt} wh}dy qhw}oitlhwl okiwdhydy ok wh}dy hwd hk df`}ord }`qoi }eh} ndkdwh}dy y}w`kn bddlokny`k }ed qhw} `b g`}e okmty}w hkm }ed qtgloi+

Whqoml woyokn qd}w`l qwoidy mtwokn }ed ydi`km ehlb `b }ed 8??1y tkmdw }ed btdl mt} dyihlh}`w ldm }`

okiwdhyokn hkndw, itlfokh}okn ok }ed y`&ihlldm btdl qw`}dy}y g l`ww mwordwy hkm bhwfdwy ok }ed

ht}tfk `b 7111 %hl}e`tne }ed ~o}emwh~hl `b }ed dyihlh}`w ehm gddk hkk`tkidm ok K`rdfgdw `b }ed

qwdro`ty dhw/+ Mt} wh}dy ~eoie ~dwd wdmtidm ylone}l ok wdyq`kyd }` }ed qw`}dy}y }edk

wdfhokdm hlf`y} i`ky}hk} ok k`fokhl }dwfy `rdw }ed kdu} ydrdk dhwy, gdb`wd y}hw}okn }` woyd hnhok

ok 711>&5+ F`wd wdidk}l, }edwd ehrd gddk ihlly b`w h btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw }` ityeo k }ed ofqhi} `b

blti}th}o`ky ok }ed qwoid b iwtmd òl+ ]ed omdh ~eoie ~hy okiltmdm ok }ed I`kydwrh}ord Qhw}

fhkobdy}` h} }ed 7181 ndkdwhl dldi}o`k hkm ~hy ytgcdi} }` h I`kydwrh}ord Qhw} i`kytl}h}o`kmìtfdk} ok 7115 %I`kydwrh}ord Qhw}, 7115/ oy itwwdk}l gdokn okrdy}onh}dm g }ed ]wdhytw+

]ed hof `b }eoy gwodbokn k`}d oy }` qw`romd y`fd `gcdi}ord hkhlyoy }` okb`wf }ed mdgh}d wdnhwmokn

btdl mt}+ Ok qhw}oitlhw, }ed gcdi}ordy `b }ed k`}d hwd3

hyydyy ~eh} }ed `t}i`fdy ~`tlm ehrd gddk `rdw }ed qdwo`m 7111 7181 ob }ed btdl mt}dyihlh}`w ehm k`} gddk ~o}emwh~k ok 8???, ok }dwfy `b mt} wh}dy, qd}w`l qwoidy, qd}w`l

i`kytfq}o`k, I@7 dfoyyo`ky, hkm }hu wdrdktdy:

mdyonk h wdrdktd&kdt}whl btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw }eh} ihk ytgy}hk}ohll wdmtid }ed ye`w} }dwfr`lh}olo} ok qd}w`l qwoidy, ~eold qwdydwrokn }ed wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk qd}w`l qwoidy hkm }ed l`kn

wtk }wdkm ok iwtmd òl qwoidy+

]ed k`}d i`fqwoydy }ewdd ydi}o`ky+ Ydi}o`k `kd qw`romdy h gwodb wdrod~ `b }ed }wdkmy ok w`hm

}whkyq`w} btdl qwoidy, mdfhkm hkm }hudy `rdw }ed qhy} }~dk} dhwy+ ]eoy oy b`ll`~dm ok ydi}o`k }~`

g }ed hyydyyfdk} `b }ed ofqhi} `b }ed btdl mt} dyihlh}`w wdf`rhl+ Bokhll, ydi}o`k }ewdd mdyiwogdy

h q`}dk}ohl btdl mt} y}hgoloydw hkm i`kyomdwy y`fd `b }ed qwhi}oihl ofqldfdk}h}o`k oyytdy+


5/33

9

8 ]wdkmy ok w`hm }whkyq`w} btdl qwoidy, mdfhkm hkm }hudy

8+8 Btdl qwoidy

]ed wd}hol qwoid `b f`}`w btdly ehy woydk y}dhmol `rdw }ed lhy} }~dk} dhwy+ E`~drdw, }edwd ehy gddk

i`kyomdwhgld r`lh}olo} hw`tkm }ed l`kn wtk }wdkm, qhw}oitlhwl ok lh}dw dhwy+ B`w duhfqld, ~eold }ed

wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l okiwdhydm bw`f cty} tkmdw =1 qdkid qdw lo}wd h} }ed y}hw} `b

8??8 }` hlf`y} 871 qdkid qdw lo}wd ok Ctkd 7181 %ydd Bontwd 8+8/ h wdhl okiwdhyd `b 59$, }edwd ~dwd

yonkoboihk} mdiwdhydy mtwokn 711118 hkm ok }ed ydi km ehlb `b 7115+ Mtwokn }ed 8??1y, }ed woyd ok

}ed qwoid ~hy mwordk g okiwdhydy ok btdl mt} %ydd ydi}o`k 8+9/+ @rdw }ed qhy} }dk dhwy, }ed woyd ehy

gddk mwordk g }ed okiwdhydy ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd òl+

Btdl mt} hkm RH] hii`tk} b`w }ed fhc`wo} `b }ed wd}hol qwoid nw`~okn bw`f 21$ `b }ed }`}hl qwoid

b`w qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l ok 8??8 }` h qdhj `b 52$ ok Fhwie 8??? %~edk }ed btdl mt} dyihlh}`w

~hy moyi`k}oktdm/, gdb`wd bhllokn ghij }` hw`tkm 21$ g }ed gdnokkokn `b 7181+

Bontwd 8+8 Mdi`fq`yo}o`k b wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l %qdkid qdw lo}wd/8

Y`twidy3 Xthw}dwl Dkdwn Qwoidy3 Ctkd 7181 %MDII/

@DIM Bhi}g``j 71813 Di`k`foi, Dkrow`kfdk}hl hkm Yìohl Y}h}oy}oiy %b`w iwtmd òl ofq`w} qwoid/

êold }edwd oy h ildhw wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed qwoid `b iwtmd òl %ok y}dwlokn/ hkm }ed wd}hol qwoid `b

qd}w`l, o} oy eonel mhfqdm %ydd Bontwd 8+7/+ @rdw wdidk} dhwy, }ed ye`w} wtk dlhy}oio} `b }ed qwd&}hu

qwoid `b qd}w`l ~o}e wdyqdi} }` }ed iwtmd òl qwoid ehy hrdwhndm hw`tkm 1+2 %ydd Hkkdu H/+ ]eh} oy, h

81$ okiwdhyd ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd òl ihtydy }ed qwoid `b qd}w`l ldhrokn }ed wdbokdwody }` woyd g

8]ed iwtmd òl i`fq`kdk} `b }ed wd}hol qwoid oy ghydm `k }ed hyytfq}o`k }eh} }ed i`y} `b iwtmd òl oy

hqq`w}o`kdm }` }ed rhwo`ty `t}qt}y bw`f }ed wdbokokn qwìdyy `k }ed ghyoy `b }edow wdyqdi}ord odlmy+

]eoy oy dxtorhldk} }` hyytfokn }eh} `kd lo}wd `b qd}w`l wdxtowdy }ed okqt} `b `kd lo}wd `b iwtmd òl+Wdbokokn rhltd hmmdm okiltmdy }ed i`y}y `b hll `}edw wdbokokn okqt}y+ Hy ytie, o} oy k`} }ed yhfd hy }edtythl mdboko}o`k `b di`k`foi rhltd hmmdm+

1

91

21

?1

871

841

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

RH] Btdl mt} Wdbokokn 'rhltd hmmdm' Iwtmd ol


6/33

=

hw`tkm 2$ ~o}eok `kd f`k}e+ ]ed ofqhi} `k }ed wd}hol qwoid oy ftie yfhlldw, wdbldi}okn }ed bhi} }eh}

btdl mt} oy yqdiobodm ok hgy lt}d }dwfy %o+d+ ok qdkid qdw lo}wd/ wh}edw }ehk hm rhl`wdf+ ]eoy ehy }ed

dbbdi} `b wdmtiokn }ed ye`w}&wtk dlhy}oio} }` hw`tkm 1+74 `rdw wdidk} dhwy+ ]ety, ~eold }edwd ehy

gddk rhwohgolo} ok }ed wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l hw`tkm o}y l`kn&}dwf %tq~hwm/ }wdkm, o} oy ftie ldyy

r`lh}old }ehk }ed qwoid `b iwtmd òl+

Bontwd 8+7 Wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk iwtmd òl qwoid%h/

hkm qd}w`l qwoidy%g/

%okmdu 7114 6 811/

%h/ Hrdwhnd y}dwlokn qwoid `k h iob ghyoy b`w ytqqlody wdidordm g TJ wdbokdwody bw`f g`}e okmondk`ty hkm ofq`w}dm y`twidy+

%g/ Qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l

Y`twid3 Xthw}dwl Dkdwn Qwoidy3 Ctkd 7181 %MDII/

8+7 Btdl mdfhkm

]ed }`}hl mdfhkm b`w f`}`w btdly %o+d+ qd}w`l qlty modydl/ wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl blh} bw`f }ed y}hw} `b

8??? }` }ed }eowm xthw}dw `b 711>, h} hw`tkm 87 gollo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw, ~o}e }ed kdnh}ord ofqhi} `b

}ed qwoid okiwdhydy `rdw }ed qdwo`m gdokn `bbyd} g }ed nw`~}e ok di`k`foi hi}oro}+7

Yokid }ed }eowm

xthw}dw `b 711> e`~drdw, }edwd ehy gddk h yonkoboihk} mdilokd ok mdfhkm, ~o}e h 81$ wdmti}o`k ok

wd}hol yhldy hkm hk 85$ wdmti}o`k ok i`ffdwiohl yhldy+9

êold }ed gwdhjm`~k `b mdfhkm gd}~ddk wd}hol hkm i`ffdwiohl yhldy ehy wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl y}hgld`rdw }ed dk}owd qdwo`m, }edwd ehy gddk h yonkoboihk} yeob} ok }ed fou `b wd}hol yhldy bw`f qd}w`l }`

modydl, ~o}e }ed lh}}dwy yehwd nw`~okn bw`f 77$ ok 8??8 }` =9$ g 7181+

7Gd}~ddk X8 8??? hkm X9 711>, }ed yhldy ~done}dm hrdwhnd qwoid `b f`}`w btdly okiwdhydm g 7>$ ok

wdhl }dwfy+ @rdw }ed yhfd qdwo`m, di`k`foi hi}oro} %hy fdhytwdm g }ed r`ltfd okmdu b`w NMQ/ nwd~

g 72$+

9

Wd}hol yhldy hwd }e`yd mdlordwody fhmd }` qd}w`l y}h}o`ky, d}i+, fhokl b`w wdyhld }` bokhl i`kytfdwy+I`ffdwiohl yhldy hwd }e`yd mdlordwody fhmd mowdi} }` h i`kytfdw b`w tyd ok }edow `~k gtyokdyy, d+n+ }`

gty hkm i`hie mdq`}y+

1

41

811

841

711

741

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

Iwtmd ol Qd}w`l qwd&}hu Qd}w`l wd}hol


7/33

4

Bontwd 8+9 Mdfhkm b`w f`} w }whkyq`w} btdly %follo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw/

Y`twid3 ]hgld 9+4, Dkdwn ]wdkmy3 Ydq}dfgdw 7181 %MDII/

8+9 Btdl }hudy

Btdl mt} wh}dy okiwdhydm yonkoboihk}l gd}~ddk 8??8 hkm 7111 %ydd Bontwd 8+=/ mtd lhwndl }` }ed

btdl mt} dyihlh}`w, ~eoie ~hy ok}w`mtidm ok 8??9 hkm ~hy tydm }` md}dwfokd okiwdhydy ok btdl mt}

wh}dy tk}ol 8???+=

B`ll`~okn }ed ~o}emwh~hl `b }ed dyihlh}`w, mt} wh}dy wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl blh} %ok

k`fokhl }dwfy/ tk}ol }ed dkm `b 711>, ~edk }ed y}hw}dm }` woyd hnhok+

Bontwd 8+= Mt} wh}dy %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

Y`twid3 Emw`ihwg k @oly3 Eoy}`woi Mt} Wh}dy %EFWI/

=

]ed btdl mt} dyihlh}`w ~hy hkk`tkidm ok }ed Fhwie 8??9 Gtmnd} Y}h}dfdk} hkm ~hy bowy} hqqlodm h}}ed dkm `b K`rdfgdw 8??9+ O} ~hy lhy} hqqlodm ok Fhwie 8??? hkm ~hy b`wfhll ~o}emwh~k ok }ed

K`rdfgdw 8??? Qwd&Gtmnd} Y}h}dfdk}+

1

7,111

=,111

2,111

5,111

81,111

87,111

8=,111

8???

7118

7119

7114

711>

711?

Qd}w`l & I`ff Qd}w`l & Wd}hol MDWR & Wd}hol MDWR & I`ff

1

71

=1

21

51

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

LQ LWQ Qwdfotf TLQ TLYQ Modydl TLYM


8/33

2

Tkmdw }ed dyihlh}`w, okiwdhydy ok mt} wh}dy ~dwd wdxtowdm }` duiddm okblh}o`k %hy fdhytwdm g }ed

okiwdhyd ok }ed Wd}hol Qwoid Okmdu/: oko}ohll g h} ldhy} 9$, }edk g h} ldhy} 4$ %bw`f K`rdfgdw 8??=/,

hkm bokhll g 2$ %bw`f Fhwie 8??5/+

]hgld 8+8 Btdl mt} wh}dy 8??871113 qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l

Mh}d `b

iehknd

Kd~ wh}d

%ql/

$ iehknd Ghyoy b`w okiwdhyd

Fhw 8??8 77+=8 84+1$ K` y}h}dm ghyoy

Fhw 8??7 79+=7 =+4$ Okiwdhyd WQO %Mdi 8??8/

Fhw 8??9 74+>2 81+1$ K` y}h}dm ghyoy

K`r 8??9 75+97 ?+?$ H} ldhy} WQO %Ydq 8??9/ * 9$

Btd

lMt}Dyihlh}`w

K`r 8??= 91+== >+4$ H} ldhy} WQO %Ydq 8??=/ * 4$

Chk 8??4 98+97 7+?$ Hm e`i

K`r 8??4 9=+91 ?+4$ H} ldhy} WQO %Ydq 8??4/ * 4$

K`r 8??2 95+52 >+4$ H} ldhy} WQO %Ydq 8??2/ * 4$

Ctl 8??> =1+75 ?+9$ H} ldhy} WQO * 4$

Fhw 8??5 =9+?? ?+7$ Duqdi}dm WQO %Ydq 8??5/ * 2$

Fhw 8??? =>+78 >+9$ Duqdi}dm WQO %Ydq 8???/ * 2$

Fhw 7111 =5+57 9+=$ Duqdi}dm WQO %Ydq 7111/

Y`twid3 E`tyd `b I`ff`ky %7111/

]ed wdrdktd whoydm g btdl mt} wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl y}hgld bw`f }ed y}hw} `b 8??? }` }ed dkm `b 7112,

h} cty} tkmdw 2 gollo`k qdw xthw}dw %ydd Bontwd 8+4/+ Okiltmokn }ed RH] ldrodm `k }ed mt}, hkkthl

wdrdktdy hrdwhndm hw`tkm 7> gollo`k `rdw }eoy qdwo`m: ~o}e }ed lhwnd fhc`wo} %o+d+ hw`tkm 51$/

gdokn whoydm bw`f wd}hol yhldy+

Yokid 711> }edwd ehy gddk h ylone} okiwdhyd ok wdrdktdy, hy }ed okiwdhyd ok mt} wh}dy ehy gddk

qhw}ohll `bbyd} g }ed wdmti}o`k ok mdfhkm+ B`w }ed dhw dkmdm X7 7181, wdrdktd }`}hlldm 7?+4

gollo`k %okiltmokn RH]/+

Bontwd 8+4 W`hm }whkyq`w} btdl mt} wdrdktd % follo`k qdw xthw}dw/

Y`twid3 Ihlitlh}o`k %ghydm `k btdl mdfhkm hkm mt} wh}d mh}h/

1

7,111

=,111

2,111

5,111

8???

7118

7119

7114

711>

711?

Ldhmdm qd}w`l Tkldhmdm qd}w`l MDWR wd}hol MDWR I`ffdwiohl


9/33

>

7 Ofqhi} `b btdl mt} dyihlh}`w wdf`rhl

Ok }eoy ydi}o`k, ~d i`kyomdw ~eh} }ed `t}i`fdy ~`tlm ehrd gddk `rdw }ed qdwo`m 7111 7181 ob }ed

btdl mt} dyihlh}`w ehm k`} gddk ~o}emwh~k ok 8???+ ]ewdd hl}dwkh}ord yidkhwo`y b w }ed dyihlh}`whwd hyydyydm3

h/ WQO * 9$

g/ WQO * 4$

i/ WQO * 2$

Ok dhie ihyd, o} oy hyytfdm }ed mt} wh}dy hwd wdroydm ok Fhwie `b dhie dhw %y}hw}okn ok Fhwie 7111/

hkm hwd ghydm `k }ed %hi}thl/ okiwdhyd ok WQO b`w }ed b`ll`~okn Ydq}dfgdw+4

Ok jddqokn ~o}e }ed

hi}thl mt} wh}dy, o} oy hyytfdm }eh} }ed ydqhwh}d %eonedw/ mt} wh}d b`w ytqdw tkldhmdm qd}w`l ~hy

hg`loyedm ok Fhwie 7118, hkm }eh} }edwdhb}dw, }edwd ~hy h i`ff`k mt} wh}d b`w tkldhmdm qd}w`lhkm modydl+

2

Bontwd 7+8 ye`~y }ed ofqhi} `b i`k}oktokn }ed dyihlh}`w `k btdl mt} wh}dy+ Tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w,

}ed mt} wh}d woydy }` 55 qdkid qdw lo}wd g Ctkd 7181, ~eold o} woydy }` hlf`y} 871 qdkid qdw lo}wd

tkmdw }ed 2$ dyihlh}`w+ ]edyd wh}dy i`fqhwd ~o}e hk hi}thl wh}d b`w }eh} f`k}e `b 4> qdkid qdw

lo}wd+

Bontwd 7+8 Ofqhi} `k btdl mt} wh}d3 tkldhmdm qd}w`l hkm modydl %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

Bontwd 7+7 ye`~y }ed wdytl}hk} ofqhi} `k }ed wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l, hyytfokn }eh}

g`}e }ed qwd&}hu qwoid hkm }ed qwdrholokn wh}d `b RH] hwd tkhbbdi}dm g }ed i`k}okth}o`k `b }ed

4]eoy oy i`kyoy}dk} ~o}e }ed ~h ok ~eoie }ed dyihlh}`w ~hy ihlitlh}dm ok o}y bokhl }~` dhwy, ~edk }ed

okiwdhyd ~hy ghydm `k }ed duqdi}dm okiwdhyd ok WQO b`w }ed b`ll`~okn Ydq}dfgdw+

2Hy ~o}e }ed hi}thl wh}dy, }ed mt} mobbdwdk}ohl b`w ldhm wdqlhidfdk} qd}w`l %LWQ/ oy fhok}hokdm tk}ol }ed

dkm `b 711=+

1

91

21

?1

871

841

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

9$ dyihlh}`w 4$ dyihlh}`w 2$ dyihlhl}`w Hi}thl


10/33

5

dyihlh}`w+ ]ed wd}hol qwoid woydy }` 84= qdkid qdw lo}wd g Ctkd 7181 tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w,

i`fqhwdm ~o}e }ed hi}thl qwoid ok }eh} f`k}e b 88> qdkid qdw lo}wd+ Tkmdw }ed 2$ dyihlh}`w, }ed

wd}hol qwoid woydy }` 8?8 qdkid qdw lo}wd %o+d+ 29$ eonedw/+

Bontwd 7+7 Ofqhi} `k wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

]ed eonedw wd}hol qwoidy ehrd h yonkoboihk} ofqhi} `k }ed mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly %ydd Bontwd

7+9/, ~o}e }`}hl mdfhkm mdilokokn }` hw`tkm 5+2 gollo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw g X7 7181 tkmdw }ed 2$

dyihlh}`w, hlf`y} 74$ l`~dw }ehk }ed hi}thl bontwd+>

Tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w, mdfhkm bhlly }` hw`tkm

?+> gollo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw %hlf`y} 84$ ldyy }ehk }ed hi}thl ldrdl/+

Bontwd 7+9 Ofqhi} `k }`}hl mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly %follo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw/

>

]ed ofqhi} `k mdfhkm oy ihlitlh}dm tyokn }ed hrdwhnd qwoid dlhy}oio}ody qw`romdm g N``m~ok d} hl%711=/ o+d+ h ye`w}&}dwf dlhy}oio} `b &1+74 hkm h l`kn&}dwf dlhy}oio} `b &1+2=+ Md}holy `b }edihlitlh}o`k fd}e`m`l`n hwd qw`romdm ok Hkkdu I+

1

41

811

841

711

741

8??8

8??2

7118

7112


1

9,111

2,111

?,111

87,111

84,111

8???

7118

7119

7114

711>

711?



11/33

?

]ed wdmti}o`k ok mdfhkm oy wdbldi}dm ok h i`wwdyq`kmokn wdmti}o`k ok I@7 dfoyyo`ky bw`f w`hm

}whkyq`w} %ydd ]hgld 7+8/+ G X7 7181, itftlh}ord dfoyyo`ky `b I@7 hwd 819 follo`k }`kkdy l`~dw

tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w hkm 842 follo`k l`~dw tkmdw }ed 2$ dyihlh}`w: ~eold hkkthl dfoyyo`ky g }ed

dkm `b }ed qdwo`m hwd 82 follo`k }`kkdy l`~dw hkm 72 follo`k }`kkdy l`~dw wdyqdi}ordl+ ]ed lh}}dw

bontwd ~`tlm ehrd wdqwdydk}dm h 4+=$ mdiwdhyd ok }`}hl TJ dfoyyo`ky, hll dlyd gdokn dxthl+5

]hgld 7+8 Wdmti}o`k ok I@7 dfoyyo`ky rdwyty hi}thl %follo`k }`kkdy I@7/

Dyihlh}`w Itftlh}ord }`

X7 7181

_dhw dkmokn

X7 7181

WQO * 9$ 819 82

WQO * 4$ 89? 79

WQO * 2$ 842 72

]ed wdrdktd whoydm g btdl mt} hkm }ed hyy`ioh}dm RH] okiwdhydy }` hw`tkm 81 gollo`k qdw xthw}dw

g X7 7181 tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w, hkm }` hw`tkm 87 gollo`k tkmdw }ed 2$ dyihlh}`w, i`fqhwdm }`

}ed hi}thl bontwd `b >+2 gollo`k %ydd Bontwd 7+=/+ Itftlh}ordl, wdrdktdy ~`tlm ehrd gddk 28 gollo`k

eonedw }ehk }ed hi}thl bontwd tkmdw }ed 9$ dyihlh}`w hkm hw`tkm 811 gollo`k eonedw tkmdw }ed 2$

dyihlh}`w+ ]ed hmmo}o`khl hkkthl wdrdktd tkmdw }ed 2$ dyihlh}`w g }ed dkm `b }ed qdwo`m h} 84+7

gollo`k ~`tlm ehrd gddk ytbboiodk} }` btkm h wdmti}o`k ok dfql`dwy kh}o`khl okytwhkid

i`k}wogt}o`ky `b hw`tkm 74$, `w h wdmti}o`k ok e`tyde`lm oki`fd }hu `b hw`tkm 81$+?, 81

Bontwd 7+= Ofqhi} `k mt} hkm }hu wdrdktdy % follo`k qdw xthw}dw/

5]ed qw`royo`khl dy}ofh}d `b TJ }`}hl I@7 dfoyyo`ky b`w 711? oy =58 follo`k }`kkdy+ Y`twid3 MDII

Y}h}oy}oihl Wdldhyd, 74 Fhwie 7181+

? Dfql`dwy i`fqtly`w kh}o`khl okytwhkid i`k}wogt}o`ky ~dwd 4=+2 gollo`k ok 711? %4>+8 gollo`k ok

7115/, ~eold e`tyde`lm oki`fd }hudy ~dwd 895+1 gollo`k %841+9 gollo`k ok 7115/+ Y`twid3 Tko}dm

Joknm`f Kh}o`khl Hii`tk}y ]ed Gltd G``j, 7181 dmo}o`k +

81]ed hgolo} `b btdl mt} }` wdqlhid wdrdktdy bw`f `}edw }hudy ehy gddk k`}dm g }ed Nwddk Boyihl

I`ffoyyo`k ok o}y Gwodbokn Qhqdw @kd %Nwddk Boyihl I`ffoyyo`k, 711?/+

1

9,111

2,111

?,111

87,111

84,111

8???

7118

7119

7114

711>

711?



12/33

81

9 Btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw

êold }ed wdlh}o`kyeoq oy eonel mhfqdm %ydd ydi}o`k 8+8/, blti}th}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd òl qwoid m` bddm

}ew`tne }` }ed wd}hol qwoidy `b f`}`w btdly+ ]eoy ihk ihtyd rdw yehwq ye`w}&}dwf okiwdhydy ok wd}holqwoidy qhw}oitlhwl ~edk i`fgokdm ~o}e woydy ok btdl mt} wh}dy+ Ok }eoy ydi}o`k, ~d i`kyomdw }ed

mdyonk `b h qwoid y}hgoloydw }eh} ~`tlm ytgy}hk}ohll wdmtid }ed ye`w}&wtk r`lh}olo} ok }ed wd}hol qwoid

`b qd}w`l, ~eold qwdydwrokn }ed wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed qwoid hkm }ed l`kn wtk }wdkm ok iwtmd òl

qwoidy+

9+8 Mdi`fq`yo}o`k `b iwtmd òl qwoid

]ed iwtmd òl qwoid ok hk f`k}e ihk gd mdi`fq`ydm ok}` }~` hmmo}ord i`fq`kdk}y3 }ed l`kn }dwf

}wdkm qwoid hkm h ye`w} }dwf mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed }wdkm %ydd Hkkdu G/+ Gd}~ddk 8??8 hkm 7181, }edwd

~hy h b`tw&b`lm okiwdhyd ok }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid, ~o}e row}thll hll `b }ed nw`~}e ìitwwokn `rdw

}ed lhy} }dk dhwy %ydd Bontwd 9+8h/+

]edwd oy ytgy}hk}ohl rhwoh}o`k hw`tkm }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid ~o}e mdroh}o`ky %ok g`}e mowdi}o`ky/

`b tq }` 21$ %ydd Bontwd 9+8g/+ ]ed hi}thl qwoid ~hy qhw}oitlhwl eone %o+d+ mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed }wdkm

nwdh}dw }ehk *71$/ ok 8??2, 71118, 71142 hkm 711>5+ O} ~hy qhw}oitlhwl l`~ %o+d+ mdroh}o`k f`wd

kdnh}ord }ehk &71$/ ok 8??5? hkm 7115?+ ]ed mdroh}o`ky hwd iehwhi}dwoydm g q`yo}ord ydwohl

i`wwdlh}o`k, ~o}e hl}dwkh}okn wtky `b ytiidyyord q`yo}ord hkm kdnh}ord rhltdy hrdwhnokn hw`tkm

you}ddk f`k}ey mtwh}o`k+

]ed hrdwhnd rhltd `b }ed hgy`lt}d mdroh}o`k hw`tkm }ed }wdkm lokd %o+d+ ok qdkid qdw lo}wd/ `rdw }ed

qdwo`m 8??8&7181 oy sdw` g mdboko}o`k, ~eold }ed hrdwhnd rhltd `b }ed qdwidk}hnd mdroh}o`k oy il`yd

}` sdw` %o+d+ *1+2$/+88

Bontwd 9+8 Iwtmd òl qwoid

h/ L`kn&wtk }wdkm %qdkid qdw lo}wd/ g/ Mdroh}o`k bw`f }wdkm %$/

Y`twid3 Xthw}dwl Dkdwn Qwoidy3 Ctkd 7181 %MDII/

88Ydd Hkkdu G b`w duqlhkh}o`k `b ~e o} oy k`} dxthl }` sdw`+

1

81

71

91

=1

41

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

Qwoid ]wdkm

&51$

&=1$

1$

=1$

51$

8??8

8??2

7118

7112


13/33

88

9+7 Mdyonk `b qwoid y}hgoloydw

]ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l ok hk f`k}e %o+d+ q}/ ihk gd mdi`fq`ydm ok}` b`tw hmmo}ord i`fq`kdk}y

%ydd Hkkdu M/3

q} 6 H} * G} * I} * M} %8/

~edwd

H} oy h i`ky}hk} }eh} mdilokdy `rdw }ofd

G} wdqwdydk}y }ed ofqhi} `b }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid `b iwtmd òl

I} wdqwdydk}y }ed ofqhi} `b }ed ye`w} }dwf mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd òl qwoid

M} wdqwdydk}y }ed ofqhi} `b `}edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy

]ed bowy} }~` i`fq`kdk}y hwd hl~hy q`yo}ord+ ]`nd}edw, }ed hwd dxthl }` }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid

b`w }eh} qdwo`m+ ]ed `}edw }~` i`fq`kdk}y fh gd q`yo}ord `w kdnh}ord, ~o}e }edow i`fgokdm rhltdwdqwdydk}okn }ed mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed }wdkm qwoid+ B`w duhfqld, Bontwd 9+7 ye`~y }ed mdi`fq`yo}o`k

`b }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l `rdw }ed qdwo`m 8??4 }` 7181+

Bontwd 9+7 Mdi`fq`yo}o`k b }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l

%qdkid qdw lo}wd/

]ed `gcdi}ord `b }ed qwoid y}hgoloydw %y}/ oy }` wdf`rd }ed ofqhi} `b }ed ye`w} }dwf mdroh}o`ky ok }ed

iwtmd òl qwoid %I}/, ~eold qwdydwrokn }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid %hkm `}edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy/+ ]eh}

oy3

q} * y} 6 H} * G} * M} %7/

I`fgokokn %8/ hkm %7/ nordy }ed b`ll`~okn duqwdyyo`k b`w }ed qwoid y}hgoloydw3

y}

6

I} %9/

&71

1

71

=1

21

8??4

7111

7114

7181

H G I M qwoid


14/33

87

]ed y}hgoloydw oy q`yo}ord %o+d+ dxtorhldk} }` h }hu/ ~edk }ed %yf``}edm/ mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed l`kn }dwf

iwtmd òl }wdkm qwoid oy kdnh}ord %o+d+ I} < 1/+ O} oy kdnh}ord %o+d+ dxtorhldk} }` h ytgyom/ ~edk }ed

mdroh}o`k oy q`yo}ord %o+d+ I} ; 1/+

Bontwd 9+9 ye`~y }ed ofqhi} `b }ed y}hgoloydw `k }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l hkm `k }ed }`}hl mdfhkm

b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly+ êold }ed ok}w`mti}o`k `b }ed y}hgoloydw yonkoboihk}l wdmtidy }ed r`lh}olo} `b}ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid, o} m`dy k`} dlofokh}d o} dk}owdl mtd }` }ed ofqhi} `b }ed `}edw tkomdk}obodm

bhi}`wy+ ]ed y}hgoloydw ehy fokofhl ofqhi} `k mdfhkm mtd }ed yltnnoyekdyy `b }ed wdyq`kyd }` qwoid

iehkndy %ydd Hkkdu I/+

Bontwd 9+9 Ofqhi} `b y}hgoloydw

h/ qwd&}hu qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

g/ }`}hl mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly %gollo`k lo}wdy qdw xthw}dw/

1

71

=1

21

8?

?4

71

11

71

14

71

81

Hi}thl ô}e y}hgolosdw L`kn wtk }wdkm

?

87

84

8???

7118

7119

7114

711>

711?

Hi}thl ô}e y}hgolosdw


15/33

89

9+9 Wdrdktd ofqloih}o`ky

Bontwd 9+= ye`~y }ed fhnko}tmd `b }ed btdl y}hgoloydw %ok qdkid qdw lo}wd/ yokid 8??=, ihlitlh}dm

wd}w`yqdi}ordl tyokn hi}thl %jk`~k/ btdl qwoidy+ Hly` ye`~k oy }ed bord&dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltd `b

}ed y}hgoloydw bw`f }ed dhw 8??? `k~hwmy+

Ok ndkdwhl, }ed rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw lody gd}~ddk qlty hkm fokty bord qdkid qdw lo}wd+ ]ed duidq}o`k

}` }eoy ~hy ok 7115&?, ~edk }ed rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw mdilokdm }` fokty ydrdk}ddk qdkid qdw lo}wd ok

Ctl 7115 b`ll`~okn }ed m`tglokn `b }ed iwtmd òl qwoid `rdw }ed qwdro`ty }~dlrd f`k}ey, gdb`wd

okiwdhyokn }` qlty }dk qdkid ok Chkthw 711? hy }ed òl qwoid i`llhqydm ok }ed ydi`km ehlb `b 7115+87

]ed bord&dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltd ~hy il`yd }` sdw` gd}~ddk 8??? hkm 711=+ O} }edk w`yd }`

hw`tkm qlty `kd qdkid qdw lo}wd g }ed dkm `b 711> gdb`wd bhllokn whqoml }` hw`tkm fokty `kd hkm h

ehlb qdkid qdw lo}wd g }ed dkm `b 7115+

Bontwd 9+= Wd}w`yqdi}ord btdl mt} y}hgoloydw b`w qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l

%qdkid qdw lo}wd/

]ed ofqhi} `b }ed y}hgoloydw `k }hu wdrdktdy mdqdkmy `k }ed mdfhkm b`w btdl ok dhie qdwo`m hy ~dll

hy }ed y}hgoloydw rhltdy+ E`~drdw, hy ~hy ye`~k ok Bontwd 8+9, }ed }`}hl mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w}

btdly wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl blh} tq }` 7115, gdb`wd mdilokokn g hw`tkm 5$ `rdw }ed kdu} }~` hkm h ehlb

dhwy+ I`kydxtdk}l, }ed ofqhi} `k }hu wdrdktdy b`ll`~y h rdw yofolhw qh}}dwk }` }eh} `b }ed

y}hgoloydw+ Bontwd 9+4 ye`~y }ed }`}hl ofqhi} `k }hu wdrdktd %o+d+ btdl mt} hkm RH]/ bw`f 8???

`k~hwmy, hyytfokn }ed y}hgoloydw rhltd oy }ed yhfd b`w hll btdl }qdy %o+d+ }eh} ihlitlh}dm b`w qwdfotf

tkldhmdm qd}w`l/, }`nd}edw ~o}e }ed bord&dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd bw`f 711= `k~hwmy+

Qwo`w }` 7115, }ed wdrdktd ofqhi} blti}th}dm gd}~ddk qlty hkm fokty 411 follo`k qdw xthw}dw+ Ok

7115 hkm 711? }ed ofqhi}y ~dwd ftie nwdh}dw, wdbldi}okn }ed okiwdhydm fhnko}tmdy `b }ed y}hgoloydw

ok }e`yd dhwy+ E`~drdw, ok }dwfy b }ed ofqhi}y `rdw }hu&dhwy %o+d+ Hqwol Fhwie/ }ed qoi}twd oy

f`wd drdk, rhwokn gd}~ddk h fhuoftf `b qlty 7 gollo`k ok 7119&= }` h fokoftf `b fokty 7

87]ed iwtmd òl qwoid okiwdhydm bw`f 77+5 qdkid qdw lo}wd ok Ctkd 711> }` =7+9 qdkid qdw lo}wd ok Ctkd

7115, gdb`wd i`llhqyokn }` 8>+7 qdkid qdw lo}wd ok Mdidfgdw 7115+

&71

&81

1

81

71

8??4

7111

7114

7181

F`k}el rhltd Bord dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd


16/33

8=

gollo`k ok 7115&?+ ]ed bord dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltd blti}th}dm gd}~ddk qlty hkm fokty 851

follo`k qdw xthw}dw %o+d+ ldyy }ehk 9$ `b }ed hi}thl mt} hkm hyyìoh}dm RH] wdrdktd i`lldi}dm/+

Bontwd 9+4 Ofqhi} `b wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw `k }hu wdrdktdy % follo`k qdw xthw}dw/

9+= Qwhi}oihl i`kyomdwh}o`ky

]ed y}hgoloydw mdbokdm g dxth}o`k %9/ hkm ye`~k ok Bontwd 9+= wdxtowdy jk`~ldmnd `b }ed

mdroh}o`ky bw`f }ed }wdkm iwtmd òl qwoid ok hll qdwo`my okiltmokn }ed qdwo m }` ~eoie o} hqqlody+ Hy

ytie, o} ihk `kl gd ihlitlh}dm wd}w`yqdi}ordl ~edk }ed hi}thl qwoidy hwd hrholhgld+ Ok qwhi}oid, }edrhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw b`w hk qdwo`m fty} gd yd} ok hmrhkid, gdb`wd }ed mdroh}o`ky b`w }ed lh}dy}

qdwo`my hwd jk`~k+

Nordk }ed mdlh ok `g}hokokn qwoid mh}h hkm }ed ldhm&}ofdy wdxtowdm b`w ofqldfdk}h}o`k, o} oy lojdl

}eh} }ed lh}dy} hrholhgld mh}h ~oll gd }ewdd f`k}ey `lm+ B`w duhfqld, hyytfokn }eh} }ed y}hgoloydw b`w

Fhwie ~`tlm ehrd }` gd yd} ok dhwl Bdgwthw, }ed lh}dy} hrholhgld mh}h ~`tlm wdlh}d }` Mdidfgdw+

I`kydxtdk}l, o} oy kdidyyhw }` b`wdihy} }ed rhltdy `b }ed mdroh}o`ky b`w }ed lhy} }ewdd f`k}ey+

B`w}tkh}dl, }ed ydwohl i`wwdlh}o`k `b }ed mdroh}o`ky hll`~y }eoy }` gd m`kd ~o}e h wdhy`khgld mdnwdd

`b hiitwhi %ydd Hkkdu M/ hkm }edyd b`wdihy}y ihk }edk gd tydm ~o}e }ed hi}thl rhltdy b`w }ed

qwdidmokn f`k}ey}` ihlitlh}d h qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw rhltd+

Bontwd 9+2 i`fqhwdy }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw rhltdy ~o}e }ed wd}w`yqdi}ord rhltdy+ ]edwd oy h

wdhy`khgl y}w`kn wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed }~` rhltdy b`w }ed fhc`wo} `b }ed qdwo`m ~o}e }ed

i`wwdlh}o`k gd}~ddk }ed }~` }ofd ydwody gdokn 1+>=+ E`~drdw, }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw ehy }ed

oki`wwdi} yonk ok 98 `b }ed 8?4 i`ky}o}tdk} f`k}ey %o+d+ 82$/ duhidwgh}okn }ed mdroh}o`ky ok }e`yd

f`k}ey wh}edw }ehk h}}dkth}okn }edf hy ok}dkmdm+ ]eoy ~hy qhw}oitlhwl yonkoboihk} ok K`rdfgdw hkm

Mdidfgdw 7115 ~edk }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw bholdm }` wdbldi} }ed tkqwdidmdk}dm mdilokd ok iwtmd

òl qwoidy ok }ed ydi`km ehlb `b }eh} dhw+ êold `kl ìitwwokn ok h yfhll fok`wo} `b ihydy, }ed

q`}dk}ohl b`w }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgolosdw }` duhidwgh}d }ed ofqhi}y `b }ed òl qwoid r`lh}olo} oy h ydwo`ty

mwh~ghij+

&7111

&8111

1

8111

7111

8???

7118

7119

7114

711>

711?

Xthw}dwl rhltd Bord dhw f`rokn hrdwhnd


17/33

84

Bontwd 9+2 I`fqhwoy`k `b wd}w`yqdi}ord hkm qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydwy qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l

%qdkid qdw lo}wd/

Mdyqo}d }ed wdhy`khgl n``m bo} }` }ed wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw, }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw oy ftie ldyy

dbbdi}ord h} wdf`rokn }ed r`lh}olo} ok }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %ydd Bontwd 9+>/+ O} wdf`rdy `kl 21$

`b }ed r`lh}olo} mtd }` }ed mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid bw`f o}y l`kn }dwf }wdkm i`fqhwdm }`

}ed 811$ wdf`rhl tkmdw }ed wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw %ydd Hkkdu M/ Btw}edwf`wd, hy k`}dm hg rd, ok

}e`yd f`k}ey ok ~eoie o} ehy }ed oki`wwdi} yonk, }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw hi}thll duhidwgh}dy }ed

r`lh}olo}+ ]eoy oy qhw}oitlhwl hqqhwdk} b w K`rdfgdw Mdidfgdw 7115+ Ob }edyd }~` tktythl

f`k}ey hwd `fo}}dm, }ed dbbdi}ordkdyy `b }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw ofqw`rdy }` 24$+

Bontwd 9+> Ofqhi} `b qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw `k }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l

%qdkid qdw lo}wd/

&71

&81

1

81

71

8??4

7111

7114

7181

Wd}w`yqdi}ord Qw`yqdi}ord

1

71

=1

21

8??4

7111

7114

7181

Hi}thl ^o}e y}hgolosdw L`kn wtk }wdkm


18/33

82

= I`kiltyo`ky

]ed wd}hol qwoid `b f`}`w btdly ehy woydk y}dhmol `rdw }ed lhy} }~dk} dhwy+ Mtwokn }ed 8??1y, }ed

woyd ok }ed qwoid ~hy mwordk g okiwdhydy ok btdl mt}+ @rdw }ed qhy} }dk dhwy, }ed woyd ehy gddkmwordk g }ed okiwdhydy ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd òl+

]edwd oy h ildhw tq~hwm }wdkm ok }ed tkmdwlokn qwoid `b iwtmd òl ~o}e h b`twb`lm okiwdhyd `rdw }ed

qhy} }dk dhwy+ ]eoy }wdkm ehy wdfhokdm y}hgld `rdw }ofd hkm }edwd oy k` wdhy`k }` duqdi} }eh} o} ~oll

k`} i`k}oktd ok }ed fdmotf }dwf %o+d+ `rdw }ed kdu} bord dhwy/+ E`~drdw, }edwd oy i`kyomdwhgld

r`lh}olo} hw`tkm }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm qwoid, ~o}e mdroh}o`ky tq }` 21$ ok do}edw mowdi}o`k+

]ed wdf`rhl `b }ed btdl mt} dyihlh}`w ok 8??? ehm h yonkoboihk} ofqhi} `k }ed }whcdi}`w `b qd}w`l

qwoidy `rdw }ed qhy} }dk dhwy+ Ob }ed dyihlh}`w ehm gddk i`k}oktdm }ew`tne }` }ed qwdydk}, }ed wd}hol

qwoid `b qd}w`l ~`tlm ehrd gddk i kyomdwhgl eonedw }ehk }ed itwwdk} ldrdl+ ]eoy ~`tlm ehrd

wdytl}dm ok h yonkoboihk} wdmti}o`k ok }ed mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly hkm edkid I@7 dfoyyo`kybw`f w`hm }whkyq`w} hkm h ytgy}hk}ohl okiwdhyd ok }ed wdrdktd whoydm bw`f btdl mt} hkm }ed

hyyìoh}dm RH]+

Ok qhw}oitlhw, ob }ed dyihlh}`w ehm i`k}oktdm h} 2$ %}ed wh}d hqqlokn h} }ed }ofd `b o}y wdf`rhl/, }ed

wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l ~`tlm ehrd woydk }` `rdw 8?1 qdkid qdw lo}wd g }ed fommld

`b 7181+ Hkkthl mdfhkm b`w w`hm }whkyq`w} btdly ~`tlm ehrd wdmtidm g hw`tkm h xthw}dw

i`fqhwdm }` }ed hi}thl bontwd, ~eold hkkthl I@7 dfoyyo`ky ~`tlm ehrd gddk 72 follo`k }`kkdy l`~dw,

~eoie ~`tlm ehrd wdqwdydk}dm h 4$ wdmti}o`k ok }ed TJy }`}hl dfoyyo`ky+ Btw}edwf`wd, }ed

hmmo}o`khl mt} RH] wdrdktd whoydm ok 7181 h} cty} `rdw 84 gollo`k ~`tlm ehrd gddk ytbboiodk}

}` wdmtid dfql`dwy kh}o`khl okytwhkid i`k}wogt}o`ky g hw`tkm 74$, `w wdmtid e`tyde`lm oki`fd}hu g hw`tkm 81$+ Hl}dwkh}ordl, }ed itftlh}ord hmmo}o`khl wdrdktd `rdw }ed mdihmd h} hw`tkm

811 gollo`k ~`tlm ehrd fhmd h fhc`w i`k}wogt}o`k }` wdmtiokn }ed itwwdk} gtmnd} mdboio}+

êold }ed wdlh}o`kyeoq oy eonel mhfqdm, blti}th}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd òl qwoid m` bddm }ew`tne }` }ed

wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l+ ]eoy ihk ihtyd rdw yehwq ye`w}&}dwf okiwdhydy ok wd}hol qwoidy qhw}oitlhwl

~edk i`fgokdm ~o}e woyokn btdl mt} wh}dy+ E`~drdw, o} oy q`yyogld } oy`lh}d }ed ofqhi}y `b }ed ye`w}

}dwf mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd òl qwoid `k }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l hkm edkid mdyonk h btdl qwoid

y}hgoloydw }eh} ~oll `bbyd} }edf+

ô}e qdwbdi} jk`~ldmnd `b iwtmd òl qwoidy, }ed y}hgoloydw ~oll wdf`rd hll `b }ed r`lh}olo}+ E`~drdw,

ok qwhi}oid, }ed rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw b`w hk qdwo`m fty} gd yd} ok hmrhkid, gdb`wd }ed mdroh}o`kyb`w }ed lh}dy} f`k}ey hwd jk`~k+ I`kydxtdk}l, o} oy kdidyyhw }` b`wdihy} }ed mdroh}o`ky %hkm edkid

}ed iwtmd òl qwoidy/ b`w }edyd f`k}ey+ êold o} oy q`yyogld o} oy q`yyogld }` b`wdihy} }edyd mdroh}o`ky

~o}e h wdhy`khgld mdnwdd `b hiitwhi, }ed wdytl}hk} y}hgoloydw oy `kl ihqhgld `b wdf`rokn hw`tkm 21&

24$ `b }ed qwoid r`lh}olo}+ Btw}edwf`wd, ok y`fd f`k}ey, }ed y}hgoloydw ehy }ed oki`wwdi} yonk,

duhidwgh}okn }ed qwoid r`lh}olo} wh}edw }ehk h}}dkth}okn o} hy ok}dkmdm+ ]ed ydkyo}oro} `b }ed

y}hgoloydwy dbbdi}ordkdyy }` }ed hiitwhi `b }ed b`wdihy} mdroh}o`ky ok iwtmd òl qwoidy fdhky }eh} }ed

rhltd ~`tlm ehrd }` gd hmcty}dm f`k}el hy }ed lh}dy} qwoid mh}h gdi`fdy hrholhgld+

]ed y}hgolosdw oy gw`hml wdrdktd kdt}whl `rdw hk bord&dhw qdwo`m+ E`~drdw, o} oy ofq`w}hk} }` k`}d

}eh} }eoy oy `kl gdihtyd o} i`fqdkyh}dy b`w }ed r`lh}olo} ok }ed iwtmd òl qwoid hw`tkm o}y l`kn }dwftq~hwm }wdkm+ Hk h}}dfq} }` y}hgoloyd }ed qwoid `b qd}w`l h} h qhw}oitlhw ldrdl %ok do}edw k`fokhl `w


19/33

8>

wdhl }dwfy/ ~`tlm ehrd h yonkoboihk} kdnh}ord ofqhi} `k wdrdktdy+ B`w duhfqld, bwddsokn }ed qwoid b

qd}w`l ok wdhl }dwfy %o+d+ okiwdhyokn ok lokd ~o}e WQO/ h} o}y Mdidfgdw 7114 ldrdl %ydd Bontwd =+8/, ~`tlm

ehrd i`y} }ed n`rdwkfdk} h itftlh}ord 5+= gollo`k ok l`~dw mt} hkm RH] wdrdktdy g }ed fommld `b

7181+ ]ed i`y} ok hk qhw}oitlhw bokhkiohl dhw mdqdkmy `k }ed blti}th}o`ky ok }ed ol qwoid, gt} o}

~`tlm ehrd gddk hy eone hy 9+2 gollo`k ok 7115&?+ Btw}edwf`wd, }ed wdytl}hk} okiwdhydm

i`kytfq}o`k ~`tlm ehrd ndkdwh}dm hk hmmo}o`khl 82 follo`k }`kkdy `b I@7+

Bontwd =+8 Mdi`fq`yo}o`k b wd}hol qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

Bw`sdk ok wdhl }dwfy bw`f Mdidfgdw 7114 `k~hwmy

Ob }ed qwoid ehm gddk boudm ok k`fokhl }dwfy %o+d+ ~o}e k` okiwdhyd b`w ndkdwhl okblh}o`k/ }edk }ed

ofqhi}y ~`tlm ehrd gddk yonkoboihk}l nwdh}dw, ~o}e wdrdktd wdmtiokn g h itftlh}ord 79 gollo`k g

}ed fommld `b 7181 %>+? gollo`k ok 7115&?/ hkm itftlh}ord I@7 dfoyyo`ky okiwdhyokn g 79 follo`k

}`kkdy+

1

91

21

?1

871

841

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

RH] Btdl mt} Wdbokokn 'rhltd hmmdm' Iwtmd ol Hi}thl


20/33

85

Wdbdwdkidy

I`kydwrh}ord Qhw} %7115/H Bhow Btdl Y}hgoloydw3 h i`kytl}h}o`k `k }ed bt}twd `b btdl }huh}o`k, Ctl

7115, I`kydwrh}ord Qhw}, L`km`k

N``m~ok, Q+, Mhwnh, C+ " Ehkl, F+ %711=/ Dlhy}oio}ody `b W`hm ]whbboi hkm Btdl I`kytfq}o`k ~o}e

Wdyqdi} }` qwoid hkm Oki`fd3 H Wdrod~, ]whkyq`w} Wdrod~y, R`l+ 7=, K`+ 9 %7>4&7?7/

Nwddk Boyihl I`ffoyyo`k %711?/ Ldyy`ky bw`f ]~` Nwddk ]hu Yeob}y ok }ed Tko}dm Joknm`f, Gwodbokn

Qhqdw @kd, Fhwie 711?, Q`loi Y}tmody Oky}o}t}d, L`km`k

E`tyd `b I`ff`ky %7111/ W`hm btdl qwoid hkm }huh}o`k, Wdydhwie Qhqdw 112?, 87 Ctl 7111

Jdkkdm, Q+ %7119/H Ntomd }` Di`k`fd}woiy, Bob}e Dmo}o`k, Glhij~dll Qtgloyeokn


21/33

8?

Hkkdu H Wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk iwtmd òl qwoid hkm wd}hol

qwoid `b qd}w`l

]ed wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l %o+d+ }ed du&wdbokdw qwoid/ h} }ofd } hkm }ed

y}dwlokn qwoid `b iwtmd òl oy hyytfdm }` }hjd }ed ht}`wdnwdyyord b`wf3

q} 6 h * g x} * i q}&8 * m }} * } %8/

~edwd q oy }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

x oy }ed iwtmd òl qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

} oy h }ofd }wdkm rhwohgld %duqwdyydm ok dhwy/

wdqwdydk}y }edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy okbltdkiokn qwoid { KZ1,V

h, g, i, m hwd qhwhfd}dwy

]ed lhnndm qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l `b qd}w`l %q}&8/ oy okiltmdm hy hk duqlhkh}`w rhwohgld }` hll`~ b`w

}ed q`yyogolo} }eh} }ed qwoid m`dy k`} hmcty} offdmoh}dl }` iehkndy ok }ed iwtmd òl qwoid+

]ed ye`w}&wtk ofqhi} `k }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid `b h iehknd }` }ed iwtmd òl qwoid oy nordk g3

mq}m}

g

]ed l`kn&wtk dxtologwotf ofqhi} %o+d+ ~edk q} 6 q}&8 6 q/ `b h y}dq iehknd ok }ed iwtmd òl qwoid oy nordk

g3

mq

m

g

8 i

]ed qhwhfd}dwy ~dwd dy}ofh}dm di`k`fd}woihll b`w qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l tyokn f`k}el qwoid

mh}h qtgloyedm ok }ed Ctkd 7181 dmo}o`k `bXthw}dwl Dkdwn Qwoidy %MDII/+ Hy oy `b}dk }ed ihyd ~o}e

ht}`wdnwdyyord f`mdly, }ed wdyomthly %/ dueogo} ydwohl i`wwdlh}o`k hkm edkid qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy

mdwordm tkmdw y}hkmhwm @LY dy}ofh}o`k hwd gohydm hkm oki`kyoy}dk}+ I`kydxtdk}l, }ed dxth}o`k

~hy dy}ofh}dm tyokn }ed Eh}hkhjh }~`&y}dq qwìdmtwd b`w ht}`wdnwdyyord f`mdly ~o}e ydwohl

i`wwdlh}o`k %ydd Jdkkdm, 7119/+ ]ed wdytl}hk} qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy hwd ye`~k ok ]hgld H8, hl kn

~o}e }edow wdyqdi}ord }&y}h}oy}oiy hkm q&rhltdy, hkm }ed W&yxthwdm rhltd b`w }ed }whkyb`wfdm dxth}o`k+

]hgld H8 Qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy3 qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l

Rhwohgld Qhwhfd}dw Dy}ofh}d }&y}h}oy}oi q&rhltd

I`ky}hk} h 2+945 81+91 < 1+118

Iwtmd òl qwoid g 1+5>2 85+78 < 1+118

Lhnndm qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid i 1+8>> =+9? < 1+118

]ofd }wdkm m &1+121 &1+54 1+=1

W7

6 1+5>


22/33

71

ô}e }ed duidq}o`k `b }ed }ofd }wdkm, hll `b }ed i`dbboiodk}y hwd eonel yonkoboihk} hkm }ed dy}ofh}dm

dxth}o`k duqlhoky 5>$ `b }ed rhwoh}o`k ok }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l %b`w }ed

}whkyb`wfdm f`mdl/+ ]eoy oy wdbldi}dm ok Bontwd H8, ~eoie ye`~y h il`yd bo} gd}~ddk }ed f`mdlldm

rhltdy ~o}e }ed hi}thl qwd&}hu qwoidy `rdw }ed qdwo`m+

Bontwd H8 I`fqhwoy`k `b hi}thl hkm bo}}dm qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoidy b`w qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l

%qdkid qdw lo}wd/

]ed dy}ofh}dm ye`w}&wtk ofqhi} `b h iehknd }` }ed iwtmd òl qwoid oy 1+55 o+d+ hw`tkm ?1$ `b hk

okiwdhyd ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd òl oy qhyydm `k offdmoh}dl ok }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l+ ]ed

dy}ofh}dm l`kn&wtk ofqhi} oy 8+12 %o+d+ 1+55 %8 1+85/+ ]eoy oy k`} yonkoboihk}l mobbdwdk} bw`f kd,

ofqlokn }eh} ok }ed l`kn&wtk, hk iehknd ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd òl oy qhyydm `k ok btll+

]ed ye`w} wtk dlhy}oio} `b }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid ~o}e wdyqdi} }` }ed iwtmd òl qwoid oy3

mq}m}

}q}

g 8 f} ~edwd f} oy }ed qdwidk}hnd fhwj&tq ok qdwo`m }+

Gdihtyd `b }ed lokdhw wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed iwtmd òl qwoid hkm }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l %8/, }ed

fhwj&tq rhwody `rdw }ofd+ êold }edwd oy i`kyomdwhgld rhwoh}o`k bw`f f`k}e }` f`k}e, }edwd ehy

gddk h ndkdwhl mdilokd `rdw }ed qhy} }~dk} dhwy %ydd Bontwd H7/ ~o}e }ed fhwj&tq b`w qwdfotf

tkldhmdm qd}w`l bhllokn bw`f hw`tkm 841$ } hw`tkm =1$+ ]eoy oy wdbldi}dm ok hk okiwdhyd ok }ed

ye`w} wtk dlhy}oio} `rdw }eh} qdwo`m bw`f 1+92 }` 1+27+

1

71

=1

21

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

Bo}}dm Hi}thl


23/33

78

Bontwd H7 Qdwidk}hnd fhwj&tq3 qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid `b qwdfotf tkldhmdm qd}w`l rdwyty iwtmd òl qwoid

]ed wdlh}o`kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed qwd&}hu qwoid hkm }ed wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l oy nordk g3

w} 6 %8 * r}/ Z q} * m} V %7/

~edwd w oy }ed wd}hol qd}w`l qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

q oy }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

r oy }ed RH] $

m oy }ed btdl mt} wh}d %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

Hyytfokn }eh} }ed btdl mt} wh}d oy yd} okmdqdkmdk}l `b }ed qwoid `b iwtmd òl }edk }ed ye`w}&wtk hkm

l`kn&wtk ofqhi}y `k }ed wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l `b h iehknd }` }ed iwtmd òl qwoid hwd wdyqdi}ordl3

mw}m}

8 r} mq}m} 8 r}g mwm g8 i ]ety, }ed ofqhi}y `k }ed wd}hol qwoid hwd dxthl }` }ed ofqhi}y `k }ed qwd&}hu qwoid, nw`yydm tq b`w

RH]+

]ed ye`w} wtk dlhy}oio} `b }ed wd}hol qwoid `b qd}w`l ~o}e wdyqdi} }` }ed iwtmd òl qwoid oy3

m}m}

}w}

g 8 f} 8 } ~edwd } 6 m} q} oy }ed rhltd `b btdl mt} hy h qw`q`w}o`k `b }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %o+d+ }ed btdl

mt} fhwj&tq+

]ety, }ed btdl mt} hi}y } mhfqdk }ed dbbdi} `b }ed iehkndy ok }ed qwoid `b iwtmd òl+ Hnhok, }ed

rhltd `b} rhwody `rdw }ofd yokid }ed btdl mt} `kl iehkndy qdwo`moihll ~eold }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l

qwoid iehkndy i`k}okt`tyl %ydd Bontwd H7/+ @rdw }ed 8??1y o} okiwdhydm bw`f cty} `rdw 811$ }` 411$hy btdl mt} okiwdhydm tkmdw }ed dyihlh}`w+ B`ll`~okn }ed wdf`rhl `b }ed dyihlh}`w, o} mdilokdm

1$

41$

811$

841$

711$

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

Fhwj&tq


24/33

77

yehwql hkm ehy hrdwhndm hw`tkm 841$ ok wdidk} dhwy+ I`kydxtdk}l, }ed ye`w} wtk dlhy}oio} `b }ed

wd}hol qd}w`l qwoid mdilokdm bw`f 1+85 }` 1+12 ok 8???, gdb`wd woyokn }` o}y itwwdk} rhltd `b 1+72+

Bontwd H9 Btdl mt} hkm qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

1$

811$

711$

911$

=11$

411$

211$

1

71

=1

21

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

Qd}w`l qwd&}hu Btdl Mt} Fhwj&tq $ %LEY/


25/33

79

Hkkdu G L`kn wtk }wdkm b`w iwtmd òl qwoid

]ed qwoid `b iwtmd òl h} }ofd } oy hyytfdm }` gd nordk g3

x} 6 x

} * } x

} 6 * } * }

7 %9/

~edwd

x oy }ed l`kn&wtk }wdkm qwoid `b iwtmd òl %qdkid qdw lo}wd/ oy }ed ye`w}&wtk mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed }wdkm qwoid, { KZ1,V

]ed qhwhfd}dwy hwd dy}ofh}dm di`k`fd}woihll tyokn f`k}el qwoid mh}h qtgloyedm ok }ed Ctkd 7181

dmo}o`k `bXthw}dwl Dkdwn Qwoidy %MDII/+ ]ed wdytl}hk} qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy hwd ye`~k ok ]hgld G8,

hl`kn ~o}e }edow wdyqdi}ord }&y}h}oy}oiy hkm q&rhltdy, hkm }ed W7

rhltd b`w }ed dxth}o`k+ êold }ed

wdyomthly hw`tkm }ed bo}}dm rhltdy %d} 6 x}}/ dueogo} yonkoboihk} ht}ì`wwdlh}o`k %ydd Bontwd G8/, }eddy}ofh}dm qhwhfd}dw rhltdy hwd tkgohydm hkm i`kyoy}dk}+

89I`kydxtdk}l, }ed dy}ofh}dm }wdkm qwoid

rhltdy ihlitlh}dm tyokn }edyd dy}ofh}dy hwd hly` tkgohydm hkm i`kyoy}dk}+

]hgld G8 Qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy


I`ky}hk} 5+244 89+45 < 1+118

]ofd ok f`k}ey %Chk 8??8 6 1/ &8+818 &>+72 < 1+118

]ofd yxthwdm 1+871 84+?1 < 1+118

W7

6 1+54

Bontwd G8 Wdyomthly %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

89Ht}ì`wwdlh}o`k ihtydy }ed W

7rhltd hkm }ed }&y}h}oy}oiy b`w }ed dy}ofh}dy }` gd `rdwy}h}dm %hkm edkid

}ed q&rhltdy }` gd tkmdwy}h}dm/+

&71

&81

1

81

71

8??8

8??2

7118

7112


26/33

7=

O} oy hyytfdm }eh} }ed ht}`i`wwdlh}o`k `b }ed wdyomthl }dwf %o+d+ }ed mdroh}o`k/ oy HW%9/, o+d+

d} 6 8 d}&8 * 7 d}&7 * 9 d}&9 * } ~edwd { KZ1,V %=/

]ed rhltdy `b }ed qhwhfd}dwy hwd dy}ofh}dm di`k`fd}woihll tyokn }ed wdyomthly bw`f }ed dy}ofh}o`k

`b }ed }wdkm dxth}o`k %9/+ ]ed wdytl}hk} qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy hwd ye`~k ok ]hgld G7, hl`kn ~o}e }edowwdyqdi}ord }&y}h}oy}oiy hkm q&rhltdy hkm }ed W

7rhltd b`w }ed dxth}o`k+ Hll `b }ed i`dbboiodk}y hwd

yonkoboihk} hkm }ed dxth}o`k duqlhoky hlf`y} ?1$ `b }ed rhwoh}o`k ok }ed wdyomthly+

]hgld G8 Qhwhfd}dw dy}ofh}dy


d}&8 8 8+721 8?+8? < 1+118

d}&7 7 &1+74> &7+=4 1+184

d}&9

9 &1+897 &7+11 1+1=>

W7

6 1+55

]ed rhltdy `b }ed qhwhfd}dwy ok }ed }wdkm qwoid dxth}o`k %9/ ehrd wdfhokdm wdlh}ordl y}hgld `rdw

}ofd, ~o}e rdw lo}}ld mobbdwdkid gd}~ddk }ed l`kn }dwf }wdkm lokdy ihlitlh}dm tyokn }ed mh}h tq }`

}ed dkm `b 7114 hkm tyokn }ed mh}h tq }` Ctkd 7181 %ydd Bontwd G7/+

Bontwd G7 Y}hgolo} b l`kn wtk }wdkm qwoid `b iwtmd `ol

Mdk`}okn }ed qdwidk}hnd mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed bo}}dm }wdkm qwoid %}/ g n} }edk3

D%n}/ 6 DZ % x} } / } V 6 D% x} } / 8

K`}okn }eh} }ed rhltd `b x} oy boudm ok wdqdh}dm yhfqlokn hkm }eh} }ed okrdwyd btki}o`k oy y}woi}l

i`krdu, }edk g Cdkydky okdthlo}3

1

81

71

91

=1

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

]wdkm 8??8&7114 ]wdkm 8??8&7181


27/33

74

D%n}/ ; x} D %} / 8 6 x} x}/ 8 6 1

]ety, }ed duqdi}dm rhltd `b }ed qdwidk}hnd mdroh}o`k h} h qhw}oitlhw q`ok} ok }ofd oy nwdh}dw }ehk

sdw`+ @b i`twyd, ok hk qhw}oitlhw yhfqld, o} fh gd q`yo}ord w kdnh}ord+ Btw}edwf`wd, }ed fdhk

rhltd hiw`yy }ofd qdwo`my oy k`} ndkdwhll dxthl }` sdw`: tklojd }ed fdhk rhltd `b }ed hgy`lt}d

mdroh}o`k %d/, ~eoie oy hl~hy dxthl }` sdw` g i`ky}wti}o`k tkmdw @LY+ +


28/33

72

Hkkdu I Ihlitlh}okn btdl mdfhkm tkmdw hyytfq}o`k `b

i`k}oktdm mt} dyihlh}`w

]ed mdfhkm b`w btdl h} }ofd } oy }qoihll hyytfdm }` gd nordk g3

lk%X}/ 6 lk%h/ * g lk%q}/ * i lk%_}/ * m lk%X}&8/ * } %4/

~edwd X oy }ed }`}hl xthk}o} `b btdl i`kytfdm %follo`k lo}wdy/

q oy }ed wdhl wd}hol qwoid `b btdl %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

_ oy }ed ldrdl `b di`k`foi hi}oro} oki`fd %o+d+ wdhl NMQ/

wdqwdydk}y `}edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy okbltdkiokn mdfhkm { KZ1,V

h, g, i, m hwd qhwhfd}dwy

]ed ye`w}&wtk qwoid dlhy}oio} `b mdfhkm oy nordk g }ed qhwhfd}dw g: ~eold }ed l`kn&wtk dlhy}oio} oy

nordk g g %8 m/+

Mdk`}okn }ed hi}thl rhwohgld rhltdy g }ed ytqdwyiwoq} # hkm }ed rhltdy tkmdw }ed i`k}oktdm btdl

mt} dyihlh}`w %bw`f }ofd } 6 ]/ g }ed ytqdwyiwoq} ) }edk, hyytfokn }eh} }ed i`k}okth}o`k `b }ed

dyihlh}`w ~`tlm k`} ehrd ehm hk ofqhi} `k }ed ldrdl `b di`k`foi hi}oro} %`w hk `}edw tkomdk}obodm

bhi}`wy okbltdkiokn mdfhkm/, o} b`ll`~y }eh}3

X}# X})

6 %q}# q})/

g%X}&8# X}&8

)/

m } ], ]8, ]7, %2/

I`kydxtdk}l, }ed qdwidk}hnd ofqhi} `k mdfhkm ok dhie }ofd qdwo`m ihk gd ihlitlh}dm o}dwh}ordl,

k`}okn }eh} }ed rhltd `b X]&8# X]&8)

6 8 g mdboko}o`k+

]ed rhltdy `b }ed qhwhfd}dwy g hkm m hwd mdwordm bw`f }ed rhltdy qw`romdm ok }ed wdrod~ `b qwoid

dlhy}oio}ody tkmdw}hjdk b`w }ed Mdqhw}fdk} `b ]whkyq`w} g N``m~ok d} hl%711=/+ Ye`w} }dwf hkm

l`kn }dwf qwoid dlhy}oio}ody b`w btdl i`kytfq}o`k hrdwhndm &1+74 hkm &1+2= wdyqdi}ordl %ydd ]hgld I8/,

ofqlokn }eh} g 6 &1+74 hkm m 6 1+28 %o+d+ 8 1+74 1+2=/+ E`~drdw, }edyd rhltdy wdlh}d }` hkkthl

mh}h %o+d+ }ed ye`w} }dwf dlhy}oio} nordy }ed ofqhi} hb}dw `kd dhw/ hkm kddm }` gd i`krdw}dm }`

dxtorhldk} xthw}dwl rhltdy hy b`ll`~y3

mX 6 m1+74

6 1+55= gX 6 g % 8 m1+74

/ % 8 m / 6 1+1>4

]hgld I8 Qwoid dlhy}oio} `b btdl i`kytfq}o`k

Ye`w} }dwf L`kn }dwf

Fdhk dlhy}oio} & 1+74 & 1+2=

Fhuoftf & 1+4> & 8+58

Fokoftf & 1+18 & 1+11

Ktfgdw `b dy}ofh}dy =2 48

Y`twid3 N``m~ok d} hl%711=/


29/33

7>

Hkkdu M Mdyonk `b btdl qwoid y}hgoloydw

h/ Wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw

I`fgokokn dxth}o`ky %8/ hkm %9/ hkm ytgy}o}t}okn }ed qhwhfd}dwy ~o}e }edow wdyqdi}ord dy}ofh}dm

rhltdy nordy3

q} 6 g % x} * d} / q}&8 m }} * ~} %>/~edwd q oy }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

x oy }ed bo}}dm l kn&wtk }wdkm qwoid `b iwtmd òl %qdkid qdw lo}wd/} oy h }ofd }wdkm

d oy }ed ye`w}&wtk mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed bo}}dm }wdkm qwoid

~ wdqwdydk}y `}edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy okbltdkiokn qwd&}hu qwoid

, g, , m hwd }ed dy}ofh}dm qhwhfd}dw rhltdy

Gt} k`}okn }eh} q}&8 6 g% x}&8 * d} / q}&7 m }}&8 * ~}&8 d}i+, o} b`ll`~y }eh}q} 6 % h# m }#} / g x#} g d#} * ~#} %5/~edwd h# 6 Z 8 * i * i

7* i

9 V

x

#} 6 x

} x

}&8

7x

}&7

9x

}&9 *

}#} 6 }} }}&8 7 }}&7 9 }}&9 * d#} 6 d} d}&8 7 d}&7 9 d}&9 * ~#} 6 ~} ~}&8

7~}&7

9~}&9 *

]ety, }ed qwd&}hu qwoid `b qd}w`l ihk gd mdi`fq`ydm ok}` h }ofd&rhwokn i`ky}hk} }dwf %H}/ hkm }ewdd

}dwfy wdqwdydk}okn }ed yf``}edm8=

okbltdkid b3

}ed l`kn wtk iwtmd òl qwoid %G} 6 g x#}/ ye`w} }dwf mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd òl qwoid %I} 6 g d#} / `}edw tkomdk}obodm bhi}`wy % M} 6 ~#} /

]ed dy}ofh}dm rhltd `b }ed yf``}eokn qhwhfd}dw oy 1+988 %ydd ]hgld H8/+ I`kydxtdk}l, }ed

~done}okn bhi}`wy xtoijl bhll il`yd }` sdw` hkm edkid, ok qwhi}oid, }ed yf``}edm rhltdy ihk gd

ihlitlh}dm hy boko}d ytffh}o`ky `rdw }ed lhy} }~dlrd f`k}ey+

]ed okbltdkid `b }ed ye`w} }dwf mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd òl qwoid ihk }edwdb`wd gd wdf`rdm g

ok}w`mtiokn h y}hgoloydw3

y} 6 gd#} g Z d} d}&8 7

d}&7 K

d}&K V %?/

8=]ed hwd dxthl }` }ed duq`kdk}ohll ~done}dm f`rokn hrdwhndy ftl}oqlodm g 8 %8 i/+


30/33

75

]ety, }ed rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw mdqdkmy k`} `kl `k }ed mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed }wdkm qwoid ok }ed

itwwdk} qdwo`m, gt} hly` }ed mdroh}o`ky ok qwdro`ty qdwo`my+ O} oy q`yo}ord %o+d+ dxtorhldk} }` h }hu/

~edk }ed %yf``}edm/ mdroh}o`k bw`f }ed l`kn }dwf iwtmd `ol }wdkm qwoid oy kdnh}ord %o+d+ #} < 1/+ O} oy

kdnh}ord %o+d+ dxtorhldk} }` h ytgyom/ ~edk }ed mdroh}o`k oy q`yo}ord %o+d+ #} ; 1/+

K`}okn }eh} D%d/ 6 D%/ 6 1, }ed duqdi}dm rhltd %fdhk/ hkm rhwohkid `b }ed y}hgoloydw hwd wdyqdi}ordl3

D%y}/ 6 g D%d#}/ 6 gZ D%d}/ D%d}&8/ 7

D%d}&7/ K

D%d}&K/ V 6 1

Rhw%y}/ 6 g7

Z RdV

~edwd 6 % 8, , 7, , K /

Rd 6 i`rd},d} i`rd},d}& i`r

d}&

,d}

i`r

d}&

,d}&

Btw}edwf`wd, yokid }ed i`fq`kdk} wdyomthly hwd ydwohll i`wwdlh}dm %ydd Hkkdu G/, o} b`ll`~y }eh} }ed

y}hgoloydw rhltdy hwd hly` ydwohll i`wwdlh}dm ~o}e }ed yhfd HW%9/ b`wf o+d+

y} 6 gZ d} d}&8 7 d}&7

K d}&K V

6 gZ % 8 d}&8 * 7 d}&7 * 9 d}&9 * r} / % 8 d}&7 * 7 d}&9 * 9 d}&= * r}&8 /

7 % 8 d}&9 * 7 d}&= * 9 d}&4 * r}&7 / K

% 8 d}&K&8 * 7 d}&K&7 * 9 d}&K&9 * r}&K / V

6 gZ 8 % d}&8 d}&7 7 d}&9 K d}&K&8 / * 7 % d}&7 d}&9 7 d}&= K d}&K&7 /

* 9 % d}&9 d}&= 7

d}&4 K

d}&K&9 / * % r} r}&8 7

r}&7 K

r}&K / V

6 8 y}&8 * 7 y}&7 * 9 y}&9 g r#} %81P

]ety, }ed y}hgoloydw b`ll`~y }ed yhfd iiloihl qh}}dwk hy }ed mdroh}o`ky bw`f }wdkm iwtmd `ol qwoid+

]ed F&qdwo`m f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw oy nordk g3

y} 6 Z d} * d}&8 * d}&7 d}&F*8 V F %88/

O} b`ll`~y mowdi}l }eh} }ed duqdi}dm rhltd `b }ed f`rokn hrdwhnd oy sdw` hkm }ed rhwohkid oy nordk g3

hw%y}/ 6 Z o Ry oV F7

~edwd o 6 % 8, 8 , 8, , 8 /

Ry 6 i`ry},y} i`ry},y}& i`ry}&,y} i`ry}&,y}&


31/33

7?

]ety, }ed rhwohkid `b }ed f`rokn hrdwhnd oy dxthl }` }ed hrdwhnd i`rhwohkid hiw`yy hll FF

i`fgokh}o`ky `b }ed lhnndm y}hgoloydw rhltdy+ ]hgld I8 ye`~y }ed rhltdy `b }ed rhwohkid b`w }ed

y}hgoloydw hkm b`w }ed f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltdy `rdw 9, 4 hkm 5 dhwy }`nd}edw ~o}e }ed hrdwhnd,

fokoftf hkm fhuoftf rhltdy+ ]ed rhwoh}o`k ok }ed f`rokn hrdwhnd bhlly xtoijl hy }ed ldkn}e `b

}ed hrdwhnokn qdwo`m okiwdhydy: ~o}e }ed fhnko}tmd `b }ed bord&dhw hrdwhnd blti}th}okn g ldyy }ehk

}ewdd qdkid hw`tkm sdw`+

]hgld I8 Rhwohkid b y}hgoloydw hkm f`rokn hrdwhnd rhltdy %qdkid qdw lo}wd/

Y}hgoloydwF`rokn Hrdwhnd

9 _dhwy 4 _dhwy 5 _dhwy

Fdhk &1+1> &1+1? 1+88 1+85

Rhwohkid 89+4> 8+91 1+>8 1+41

Fokoftf &8>+17 &9+99 &8+95 &1+24

Fhuoftf 81+=1 7+=8 8+8? 8+12

Yqwdhm 7>+=7 4+>= 7+4> 8+>8

g/ Qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw

Ok qwhi}oid, }ed rhltd `b }ed y}hgoloydw b`w hk qdwo`m fty} gd yd} ok hmrhkid, gdb`wd }ed mdroh}o`ky %d/

b`w }ed lh}dy} qdwo`my hwd jk`~k+ Nordk }ed mdlh ok `g}hokokn qwoid mh}h hkm }ed ldhm&}ofdy

wdxtowdm b`w ofqldfdk}h}o`k, o} oy lojdl }eh} }ed lh}dy} hrholhgld mh}h ~oll gd }ewdd f`k}ey `lm %o+d+

~oll wdlh}d }` qdwo`m }&9/+ E`~drdw, o} oy q`yyogld } tyd }ed tyd }ed ydwohl i`wwdlh}o`k `b }ed

mdroh}o`ky %hy mdbokdm g dxth}o`k %=/ ok Hkkdu G/ }` i`ky}wti} b`wdihy} rhltdy %fhmd h} }ofd }&9/ b`w}ed lhy} }ewdd qdwo`my, o+d+

}&7 6 8 d}&9 * 7 d}&= * 9 d}&4

}&8 6 8 }&7 * 7 d}&9 * 9 d}&=

} 6 8 }&8 * 7 }&7 * 9 d}&9

^eold }ed b`wdihy}y gdi`fd ytiidyyordl ldyy hiitwh}d, }ed bokhl b`wdihy} %b`w qdwo`m }/ y}oll qw`romdy h

wdhy`khgl n``m bo} }` }ed hi}thl mdroh}o`ky ok f`y} qdwo`my %ydd Bontwd M8 gdl`~/ ~o}e h

i`wwdlh}o`k i`dbboiodk} b`w }ed }~` }ofd ydwody `b 1+>1+

Tyokn }edyd b`wdihy} rhltdy b`w }ed mdroh}o`ky, h qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw ihk gd ihlitlh}dm hy843

} 6 gZ } }&8 7 }&7

9d}&9

Kd}&K V %87/

84

O} oy hly` q`yyogld }` tyd }ed ydwohl i`wwdlh}o`k `b }ed y}hgoloydw rhltdy %hy mdbokdm g dxth}o`k 81/ }`b`wdihy} }ed y}hgoloydw rhltdy mowdi}l+ E`~drdw, tyokn }ed b`wdihy} mdroh}o`ky oy ylone}l f`wd hiitwh}d

hkm wdxtowdy fokofhl hmmo}o`khl i`fqt}h}o`k+


32/33

91

Bontwd M8 I`fqhwoy`k `b hi}thl mdroh}o`ky ~o}e b`wdihy} rhltdy fhmd }ewdd f`k}ey dhwlodw

%qdkid qdw lo}wd/

Bontwd M7 i`fqhwdy }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw rhltdy ~o}e }ed i`wwdyq`kmokn wd}w`yqdi}ord rhltdy

`rdw }ed qdwo`m Hqwol 8??= Ctkd 7181+ ]edwd oy h wdhy`khgl y}w`kn wdlh}o kyeoq gd}~ddk }ed }~`

rhltdy b`w }ed fhc`wo} `b }ed qdwo`m }ed i`wwdlh}o`k gd}~ddk }ed }~` }ofd ydwody oy 1+>=+ E`~drdw,

}ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw ehy }ed oki`wwdi} yonk ok 98 `b }ed 8?4 i`ky}o}tdk} f`k}ey %o+d+ 82$/

duhidwgh}okn }ed mdroh}o`ky wh}edw }ehk h}}dkth}okn }edf hy ok}dkmdm+ Ok f`y} ihydy, }ed

fhnko}tmd `b }ed mobbdwdkid ~hy ldyy }ehk 7 qdkid %d+n+ }ed wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgolosdw rhltd oy qlty 8

qdkid wh}edw }ehk fokty 8 qdkid, d}i+/+ E`~drdw, ok y fd ihydy o} oy yonkoboihk}+ Ok qhw}oitlhw, ok

K`rdfgdw hkm Mdidfgdw 7115, }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw bholdm }` wdbldi} }ed tkqwdidmdk}dm

mdilokd ok iwtmd `ol qwoidy %}ed mdroh}o`k rhltd bhllokn bw`f qlty 82 qdkid ok Ctkd }` fokty 81 qdkid

ok Mdidfgdw/ hkm edkid wdfhokdm yonkoboihk}l q`yo}ord wh}edw }ehk iehknokn yonk hy wdxtowdm+

Bontwd M7 I`fqhwoy`k `b wd}w`yqdi}ord hkm qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw rhltdy %qdkid qdw lo}wd/%h/

%I`wwdlh}o`k 6 1+>=/

%h/ Wd}w`yqdi}ord rhltd k rdw}oihl huoy, qw`yqdi}ord rhltd k e`wos`k}hl huoy

&71

&81

1

81

71

8??8

8??2

7118

7112

Hi}thl B`wdihy} %&9/

&71

&84

&81

&4

1

4

81

84

71

&71 &84 &81 &4 1 4 81 84 71

Mdi 15

K`r 15


33/33

]ed dbbdi}ordkdyy `b }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw ok wdf`rokn }ed r`lh}olo} ok }ed qwd&}hu qd}w`l qwoid

mtd }ed mdroh}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid bw`f o}y l`kn wtk }wdkm ihk gd fdhytwdm g3

y} g d}

gd}

G mdboko}o`k, 6 1 ok }ed hgydkid `b hk y}hgoloydw, ~eold 6 8 b`w }ed wd}w`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw %yokid

y} gd#} 6 1/+ B`w }ed qw`yqdi}ord y}hgoloydw, 6 1+2+ ]eh} oy, o} wdf`rdy 21$ `b }ed r`lh}olo} mtd }`

}ed blti}th}o`ky ok }ed iwtmd `ol qwoid+

Documents

Road transport fuel prices, demand and tax revenues: impact of fuel duty escalator and price stabiliser