T i t l e
Climate Change
Road and River Transport in Central Yakutia, East Siberia, Russia
Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, St.Petersburg State University
Lena River Basin Water Management Administration; Laboratory of Permafrost Engineering; Emergency Agency of Sakha (Yakutia) Republic
ClimateChange
R o a d a n d R i v e r T r a n s p o r t i n C e n t r a l Y a k u t i a
Lena Riv. in summer Lena Riv. in spring Lena Riv. in winter ice/ferry river crossing
• Area of Yakutia 3 million km2; population 965000 people
• Only 8% of Yakutia has year-round transport connection; 75% of roads do not have hard surface
• There are 7 ice/ferry crossings along the three federal “year-round” roads• Yakutsk is a capital of Yakutia and a largest (310 000 people) city in permafrost zone in the world• The Lena River is used for navigation in summer and as ice road in winter.
• Yakutsk has no connection with “mainland” in spring and autumn
ClimateChange
R o a d a n d R i v e r T r a n s p o r t i n C e n t r a l Y a k u t i a
Roads on landRoads are constructed on permafrost that
are vulnerable to climate warming as deeper summer-ground thaw could lead to
road damage and collapse.
Rivers and ice crossingsThe navigation season and river ice
crossing are dependent on river ice break-up and freeze-up dates and ice thickness
that are shifting due to warming.
ClimateChange
W h a t h a s b e e n c h a n g i n g ?Mean annual air temp in
Yakutsk has increased from -10.4 °C (1951-1978) to -8.7
°C (1979-2012)
Max ice depth has decreased by 49 cm for the period 1955-
2012
ClimateChange
W o r k f l o w
Input dataImpact model setup
and simulationCIIs for past and
future:
C3S climate data for past and future:• daily air temperature• daily precipitation
Local historical data:• ground thawing depths• river ice depth• river ice break-up and freeze-up dates• meteorology
Hydrograph modelexplicitly simulates heat and water dynamics in the soil profile thus is able to reflect ground thawing and freezing
Arctic-HYPEPan-arctic application of HYPE model adapted to Lena river, including lake and river ice simulation.
• river ice break-up and freeze-up dates• river ice depth• ground thaw depth
Stakeholders:• Emergency Agency• Lena River Basin Water Management Administration• Laboratory of permafrost engineering
ClimateChange
I m p a c t m o d e l s e v a l u a t i o n : t h e H y d r o g r a p h Simulated and observed ground temperature
фактическая, 0.5 м фактическая, 1 мфактическая, 3 м рассчитанная, 0,5 мрассчитанная, 1 м рассчитанная, 3 м
10.201706.201702.201710.201606.2016
тем
пера
тура
, гра
дусы
C
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
фактическая, 0.5 м фактическая, 1 мфактическая, 3 м рассчитанная, 0,5 мрассчитанная, 1 м рассчитанная, 3 м
10.201706.201702.201710.201606.2016
тем
пера
тура
, гра
дусы
C
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
observed, 0.5 mobserved, 3 msimulated, 1 m
observed, 1 msimulated, 0.5 msimulated, 3 m
Grou
nd te
mpe
ratu
re, °
C
фактическая, 0.5 м фактическая, 1 м фактическая, 2 мфактическая, 3 м рассчитанная, 0,5 м рассчитанная, 1 мрассчитанная, 2 м рассчитанная, 3 м
10.201706.201702.201710.201606.2016
тем
пера
тура
, гра
дусы
C
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Larch forest, thawing depths up to 1 m Pine forest, thawing depths up to 3-4 m
Climate
Change
I m p a c t m o d e l s e v a l u a t i o n : t h e A r c t i c H Y P E
• ArcticHYPE: -2.6 cm/10yrs
• Observations: -4.5 cm/10yrs
Annual max ice depth, Tabaga:
Evaluation of CII trends , eg. annual maximum ice depth and break up day:
• ArcticHYPE: -2 days/10yrs
• Observations: -1.4 days/10yrs
First day of ice flow, Yakutsk:
ClimateChange
R e s u l t s : r i v e r i c e
• In the future maximum annual ice thickness may be reduced by 36-80 cm
• Ice cover period may be shortened by 20-50 days.
ClimateChange
R e s u l t s : t h a w i n g d e p t h
According to extreme RCP8.5 emission scenario permafrost would completely thaw in upper 5 m in three typical landscapes in Central Yakutia while thaw depth would increase only by 15-27 cm in other three landscapes by the end of 21st century
ClimateChange
O u t c o m e f o r o u r c l i e n t s
• Awareness of significant climate-induced changes of critical environmental variables for transport sector in Eastern Siberia in XX and XXI century
• Modification of current construction and exploitation techniques will be needed in near future
• Local stakeholders admit importance of development of long-term strategy of climate change adaptation
• Produced CIIs would contribute to development of both short-term adaptation measures for safe construction and exploitation of transportation routes in Eastern Siberia and long-term strategy of adaptation and mitigation to climate change on local and regional scale.