T i t l e

Climate Change

Road and River Transport in Central Yakutia, East Siberia, Russia

Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, St.Petersburg State University

Lena River Basin Water Management Administration; Laboratory of Permafrost Engineering; Emergency Agency of Sakha (Yakutia) Republic

ClimateChange

R o a d a n d R i v e r T r a n s p o r t i n C e n t r a l Y a k u t i a

Lena Riv. in summer Lena Riv. in spring Lena Riv. in winter ice/ferry river crossing

• Area of Yakutia 3 million km2; population 965000 people

• Only 8% of Yakutia has year-round transport connection; 75% of roads do not have hard surface

• There are 7 ice/ferry crossings along the three federal “year-round” roads• Yakutsk is a capital of Yakutia and a largest (310 000 people) city in permafrost zone in the world• The Lena River is used for navigation in summer and as ice road in winter.

• Yakutsk has no connection with “mainland” in spring and autumn

ClimateChange

R o a d a n d R i v e r T r a n s p o r t i n C e n t r a l Y a k u t i a

Roads on landRoads are constructed on permafrost that

are vulnerable to climate warming as deeper summer-ground thaw could lead to

road damage and collapse.

Rivers and ice crossingsThe navigation season and river ice

crossing are dependent on river ice break-up and freeze-up dates and ice thickness

that are shifting due to warming.

ClimateChange

W h a t h a s b e e n c h a n g i n g ?Mean annual air temp in

Yakutsk has increased from -10.4 °C (1951-1978) to -8.7

°C (1979-2012)

Max ice depth has decreased by 49 cm for the period 1955-

2012

ClimateChange

W o r k f l o w

Input dataImpact model setup

and simulationCIIs for past and

future:

C3S climate data for past and future:• daily air temperature• daily precipitation

Local historical data:• ground thawing depths• river ice depth• river ice break-up and freeze-up dates• meteorology

Hydrograph modelexplicitly simulates heat and water dynamics in the soil profile thus is able to reflect ground thawing and freezing

Arctic-HYPEPan-arctic application of HYPE model adapted to Lena river, including lake and river ice simulation.

• river ice break-up and freeze-up dates• river ice depth• ground thaw depth

Stakeholders:• Emergency Agency• Lena River Basin Water Management Administration• Laboratory of permafrost engineering

ClimateChange

I m p a c t m o d e l s e v a l u a t i o n : t h e H y d r o g r a p h Simulated and observed ground temperature

фактическая, 0.5 м фактическая, 1 мфактическая, 3 м рассчитанная, 0,5 мрассчитанная, 1 м рассчитанная, 3 м

10.201706.201702.201710.201606.2016

тем

пера

тура

, гра

дусы

C

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

фактическая, 0.5 м фактическая, 1 мфактическая, 3 м рассчитанная, 0,5 мрассчитанная, 1 м рассчитанная, 3 м

10.201706.201702.201710.201606.2016

тем

пера

тура

, гра

дусы

C

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

observed, 0.5 mobserved, 3 msimulated, 1 m

observed, 1 msimulated, 0.5 msimulated, 3 m

Grou

nd te

mpe

ratu

re, °

C

фактическая, 0.5 м фактическая, 1 м фактическая, 2 мфактическая, 3 м рассчитанная, 0,5 м рассчитанная, 1 мрассчитанная, 2 м рассчитанная, 3 м

10.201706.201702.201710.201606.2016

тем

пера

тура

, гра

дусы

C

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

Larch forest, thawing depths up to 1 m Pine forest, thawing depths up to 3-4 m

Climate

Change

I m p a c t m o d e l s e v a l u a t i o n : t h e A r c t i c H Y P E

• ArcticHYPE: -2.6 cm/10yrs

• Observations: -4.5 cm/10yrs

Annual max ice depth, Tabaga:

Evaluation of CII trends , eg. annual maximum ice depth and break up day:

• ArcticHYPE: -2 days/10yrs

• Observations: -1.4 days/10yrs

First day of ice flow, Yakutsk:

ClimateChange

R e s u l t s : r i v e r i c e

• In the future maximum annual ice thickness may be reduced by 36-80 cm

• Ice cover period may be shortened by 20-50 days.

ClimateChange

R e s u l t s : t h a w i n g d e p t h

According to extreme RCP8.5 emission scenario permafrost would completely thaw in upper 5 m in three typical landscapes in Central Yakutia while thaw depth would increase only by 15-27 cm in other three landscapes by the end of 21st century

ClimateChange

O u t c o m e f o r o u r c l i e n t s

• Awareness of significant climate-induced changes of critical environmental variables for transport sector in Eastern Siberia in XX and XXI century

• Modification of current construction and exploitation techniques will be needed in near future

• Local stakeholders admit importance of development of long-term strategy of climate change adaptation

• Produced CIIs would contribute to development of both short-term adaptation measures for safe construction and exploitation of transportation routes in Eastern Siberia and long-term strategy of adaptation and mitigation to climate change on local and regional scale.