Revitalising Rainfed Agriculture in India
Dr. J.P. MishraAdviser Agriculture
NITI Aayog, New Delhi
•Shortage of water for7.5 to 10 months
•Wide spread N and Pdeficiencies along withmicronutrients
•Excessive runoff furtherdeteriorates soilnutrient status
•Mean annualtemperature >180C, rainfall exceedingevapo-transpiration 2to 4.5 months in a year
•Alfisols and Aridisols -abundant soil orders
Water Stressed Cropping/Livestock
0 20 40 60 80 100
Net Sown Area
Foodgrain Production
Population
Foodgrain Area
Coarse Cereals
Pulses
Oilseeds
Cotton
Rice
52
44
40
48
83
80
73
68
40
% Contribution
Water stressed areas provide maximum Protein & Fat
80
20
73
27
0 20 40 60 80 100
Rainfed
Irrigated
Rainfed
Irrigated
Puls
esO
ilsee
ds78
22
6436
7525
0 20 40 60 80 100
RainfedIrrigated
RainfedIrrigated
RainfedIrrigated
Cat
tleSh
eep
Goa
t
68
32
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Rainfed
Irrigated
Cot
ton
•Major domain forprotein and fatsupplements inIndian diet
•Leads in theproduction ofpulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals, andlivestock
•Predominant cottonproducer-stronglinkage with textileindustry andemployment
Poverty among Farm Households45
.3
35.1
33.0
32.1
28.4
26.5
23.2
22.5
22.5
22.5
18.9
17.5
14.0
13.6
12.3
12.3
11.8
10.7
9.0
4.3
3.2
0.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
4
Very promising for future growth-needs overall systemic changes in production to delivery services, health and disease control and
management
Needs much higher investment for sustaining
the turn around in horticulture-quality
storage, cool chains, ripening
infrastructures-marketing
With current pace can achieve the cereals.
Pulses is difficult task-Needs technological
breakthrough for plant types and also NRM
5/2/2017 5
242.34
17.09
259.32
29.8
361.04
75.29
150.58
127.9
5.11
65.6
8.5
235
22
257
59
279
97
161
253
25
277
71
312
124
189
137.3
11.4
100
12.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Cereals Pulses Foodgrains Oilseeds Sugarcane Fruits vegetables Milk Meat Egg Fish
Production 2011-12Demand 2016-17Demand 2020-21
Annual increase in demand at 1.3% forcereals, 3% for pulses, 3.5% for edibleoils, 3.3% for vegetables and 5% in fruits.
DEMAND - SUPPLY DYNAMICS
NEED A PARADIGM SHIFT
• Move from Commodity centric to an area-focussed approach• Investment in rainfed agriculture at ~Rs. 50,000/ha
• Knowledge-based Agriculture• Improved inputs, Diversification and R&D
• Farmers Centric Agriculture• FPOs, Agri marketing & warehouse receipts• Credit, finance and insurance, capacity building
• Industry-agriculture –farmer linkages• Market infrastructure, export opportunities, agribusiness
• Government a facilitator• Mission mode approach to enhance land and labour productivity
• Governance• Convergence matrix of programmatic interventions
MOVE FROM COMMODITY CENTRIC TO AN AREA-FOCUSSED APPROACH
India is water stressed. 52% of cropped area remains without irrigation and some regions are chronically water stressed yet:
•Currently, irrigation consumes 84% of the water (industry 12% and households 4%)
•Water use in irrigation in India is 2 to 4 times that in USA and China per unit of major crops
Share of canal in net irrigated area declined from 39.8 % to 23.6 %.
Groundwater sources increase from 28.7 % to a whopping 62.4 % between 1950-51 and 2012-13.
•In northwest, groundwater is over exploited•In the eastern states, substantial scope for harnessing groundwater remains
NITI Aayog, Government of India
Water and Irrigation: Issues
98.4
89.0
78.2
68.567.463.1
49.347.641.9
36.834.929.5
20.619.918.915.714.213.512.6
3.8
1.6
11.0
21.8
31.532.636.9
50.752.4
58.1
63.265.1
70.5
79.480.181.184.385.8
86.587.4
96.2
88.282.8
45.0
74.5
48.3
98.1
64.1
40.0
49.9
90.7
115.9
19.9
77.5
0.0
8.9
0.0
11.7
34.9
2.2 -0.6
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
PB HR UP BR DL
WB UK
ALL
IND
IA JK ML TR O
D HP AR NL
MN JH SK MZ
AS
% irrigated% unirrgated% of net irrgated area with more than one irrgation
21.7
72.2
39.6
50.146.0 43.3
55.8
26.1
8.4
31.1
67.674.9
80.2
29.8
46.6
21.9
50.7
134.6
58.5
126.8
170.3
5.3
51.5
17.9 19.522.1
12.7
30.9
8.32.9
8.012.7 15.6 9.5
4.3 0.5 1.6 1.8
24.7
1.5
17.7
27.8
21.5
17.2 16.8 16.3 15.913.9 13.8
11.9
8.7 7.96.2 5.3 4.7
3.6 3.0 2.41.0 0.8 0.2
-2.7
-14.6
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0AS U
PW
BM
H AP BR MP
OR NEH CG KR G
JTN JH K
L JK UK RJ
HP
HR PB
Grou
ndw
ater
for
futu
re ir
riga
tion
(BCM
)
Grou
ndw
ater
dev
elop
men
t and
pro
duct
ion
% GW Dev Food crops Production (mt) GW for Future Irrigation (BCM)
Future Irrigation Opportunities
NITI Aayog, Government of India
168.2 mt 53.0 mt 75.1 mt
KNOWLEDGE-BASED AGRICULTURE
IMPROVED INPUTS, DIVERSIFICATION
AND R&D
Water Management: Opportunities
• Shift to Efficient Water Application Tools (EWATs) forconserving the water and raising productivity
• Water positive techniques- System of Rice Intensification andDirect Seeded to conserve water and raise productivity
• Divert investments on irrigation technologies andinfrastructure from subsidies to irrigation and electricity: offerfarmer groups a choice between the two
• Utilize MGNREGA for last mile connectivity and minorirrigation projects/irrigation tanks
• Complete the nearly complete major irrigation projects underPMKSY
• Utilize the irrigation potential already created- Prioritise CADAinvestments
• Specialised solution for chronically water stressed areas
•Though the availability of quality seed has increased, SRR remains low in the country•19-22 per cent in pulses
and below 30 per cent in paddy and wheat•Majority of farmers use
farm saved seed - many farmers do not distinguish between grain and seed• Sale of spurious seed in
the market•Private sector
participation is limited•No guidelines for pricing
of seed
Issues
NITI Aayog, Government of India
-6.1
05.8
0
-0.5
1.8 0
40.9
10.4 7.90.8 0
-7.0
6.0 7.0
-1.1-1.4
0
-4.6
63.9
26.619.8
13.87.4 5.0 4.5 3.2 0.7 -1.4-2.5
-9.5-10.6-11.4-13.0-15.9-19.8-20.6-25.6
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0 Deviation from desired SRR (%) in wheat and Rice
Wheat Rice
-29.48-26.02
-14.49
1.41 2.61
-28.25
-9.42
-21.73
-10.84-7.51
12
-27.32-31.71
-17.24-13.65
-16.41
-6.09
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
OD JH BR All India UP WB
Deviation from desired SRR(%) in pulses
Urd Mung Arhar Gram
Seeds, Fertilizer & Pesticides
Accelerate SRR to reach 33% in HYVs and 100% in hybrids.
• Revitalize seed chain with focus on replacing varieties older than ten years by new ones.
• Incentivise public sector and facilitate private sector to raise quality seed production to generate adequate supply.
Promote skill in seed production at village level
Facilitate private investment in R&D of seed and its promotion
NITI Aayog, Government of India
Seeds, Fertilizer & Pesticides
NPK use is skewed towards. Realign norms for fertilizer use according to products such as urea, neem-coated urea, sulphur-coated urea and urea briquette.
Inform farmer through soil health card on optimal use of fertilizer by soil type, crop and water usage.
Encourage the farmers to better calibrate the balance as well as level across different fertilizers
NITI Aayog, Government of India
Farm Mechanization: Issues• Small land holdings, high capital and low credit
worthiness of farmers • Inadequate rural infrastructural services • Availability of durable, light weight and low cost farm
implements
Farm Mechanization: Opportunities • Scale up the custom-hiring centre and replicate the best
practices of the States;• Reorient public extension agencies from varieties and
inputs to farm mechanization, RCTs and post harvest activities
NITI Aayog, Government of India
Farm Mechanization
New Technologies: GM The technology promises
• Higher productivity • Lower use of fertilizers, weedicides and pesticides
• Tolerance against drought, salinity and other abioticstresses.
• Fortification of grains and edible oils with vitamin A andmodified fatty acids
World’s leading scientific bodies like the US NationalAcademy of Sciences, the UK’s Royal Society, theGerman Risk Assessment Agency, the EuropeanAcademy of Science, the Canadian Royal Society, theNew Zealand Royal Society, and India’s seven scienceacademies have all declared that GM crops are safe
16
As a part of its strategy to bring a SecondGreen Revolution, GM crops needs to bepromoted with appropriate safeguards
• Recognizing the general sensitivity to permittingmultinationals, proceed with domestically sourced GMseeds only.
• According to the evidence presented by the leading IndianResearch Organizations, a large number of India sourcedcandidates for field trials and eventual commercializationalready exist. These may provide a good starting point.
17
New Technologies: GM
NEW TECHNOLOGIES: PRECISION FARMING
Options Include
• Precision farming• System of Rice Intensification• Nano-technology• Hi-tech Horticulture and
Animal HusbandryIntroduce and encouragejudiciously, taking into accountthe cost-benefit factors. Thecriterion in most cases should becommercial viability withoutsubsidies
18
Turmeric at Bhavani Block of Erode (2009-10)
Shift to High Value Commodities
Issues • With rising incomes, demand side factors are highly favourable for
diversification towards high value horticultural, dairy, fisheries, poultry andlivestock.
• But infrastructure, institutions and public policy are not very favourabletowards the transition in most states.
Recommendations• Strengthen through public support the livestock disease surveillance, control
and health infrastructure• Expand cold storage facilities• Provide market finance to farmers• Facilitate the development of food processing industry, which will create
demand at lucrative prices for high value commodities.
Hi-Tech Polyhouse
Use of Energy• Energy inputs to Agri. now1.84 kw per ha, this needs to raised 2.2
kw per ha by 2020.
• Priority given to harnessing non-conventional and renewableresources of energy.
Livestock and Fisheries• Induction of high yielding breeds, improvements in animal
healthcare, feed, fodder, drinkingwater, shelter, institutions, promotion of irrigated fodder etc.
• Small reservoirs, tanks, water harvesting ponds created underMGNREGA have potential for fisheries development.
Agri.-Research & Extension• SAUs, KVK could be the centres of knowledge
development, management and transmission to users.
•Essential to bring about better synergy between SAUs and ICAR.
FARMERS CENTRIC AGRICULTURE
Farmer Producer Organisations •FPOs are emerging as useful mechanisms
• aggregation of inputs/outputs and optimal deployment ofresources
• access to mainstream capital for improvements inproduction system assets
• risk reduction through financial measures, croppingchoices; and
• creates opportunity to scale the quality demanding urbanconsumer and agro-processing industry.
•RBI will have to include financing to FPOs in its prioritysector
Remunerative PricesMSP: Issues • MSP procurement limited to a few crops and regions
• Persistent demands for higher MSP and ever-rising procurement, which isinfeasible in view of fiscal constraints
• Subsidized sales of cereals under PDS in regions where there is no procurementdivert part of the demand from local farmers, lowering the price the latter receive
MSP: Opportunities• Extending MSP and procurement to more crops and regions is infeasible both
fiscally and administratively
• Limit MSP-based procurement to building buffer stock and stock for price stabilization
• For all else, we can level the playing field across regions and crops by replacing MSP by deficiency payments amounting to 10 percent of the market price, which is fiscally feasible and WTO compliant
• This may be initially tried on a pilot basis in cotton in select districts
24
Farmer Distress and ReliefIssue
• A mechanism is required to bring quick relief to farmers impacted directly or indirectly by natural disasters.
Opportunities• Conduct the relief transparently as an emergency social program. Create a
database that identifies farmers and corresponding Aadhar seeded bankaccounts. In case of a natural disaster, transparently identified by weatherdata and a set of weather related criteria, transfer a minimum specified sumof cash immediately into these accounts.
• Appropriate avenues to create jobs for those farmers interested in exitingfarming. Farm-oriented processing and small-scale industries offer two suchavenues.
• Implement PMFBY to deal with distress situations. Evolve a mechanism forthe provision of a diversified set of crop insurance products by a diverse setof insurer firms.
INDUSTRY-AGRICULTURE FARMER LINKAGES
Industry-Agriculture-Farmer Linkages
Industry enhance investment
• imparting knowledge with the use of latest informationtechnologies
• knowledge institutions which are engaged in agricultureresearch
• facilitate developing appropriate new technologies combiningfarmers wisdom and traditional knowledge
• Developing Infrastructure Projects related to secondaryagriculture –processing and value addition
GOVERNMENT AS FACILITATOR
Utilize the Underutilized•Mission-mode programme for Rainfed Areas
•Convergence of schemes/programmes.
•Eastern states and other rain-fed regions suffer from low productivity anddisproportionately greater incidence of droughts, floods and cyclones thatcan destroy standing crops.
• With procurement concentrated in regions with well-developed irrigation and PDS bringing subsidized grain to eastern states, farmers also face depressed prices in the local markets.
• abiotic stress -drought, flood, submergence and salinity
• 11.7 m ha rice fallows that can be used through crop Intensification (short duration pulses and oilseeds in winters)
• Tribal dominated areas of Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh -Organic bydefault -offer good scope for organic farming.
• Considerable scope for groundwater development in the region though withthe important qualification that high arsenic levels may disqualify certainareas
ENHANCING PUBLIC & PRIVATE INVESTMENTS
(CONVERGENCES OF RESOURCES)
•Convergence within agriculture–NFSM, RKVY, PMKSY
(micro-irrigation), NMOOP, NMAET•Convergence between MoRD, Agri, MoFPI, WR
–MGNREGA, PMKSY, RKVY, CAD-WM•Overarching structure for Programme Administration
• Matrix for convergence -activities, responsibilities, scale and outcome
Rationalizing Allocation Critical For Capital Formation
•Crop centric investment under RKVY•Post harvest management got the least
– Critical for future growth and Make in India initiative
•Many important sub-sectors allocated less
– capacity of project preparation and absorption
– Can it be linked with contribution to State Agri-GDP?
15.3
25.3
20.8
16.217.5
18.7
16.0
6.88.1
49.4
34.4
46.0 45.242.8 43.2
34.9
70.5 70.4
6.85.7
4.65.8
3.54.9 3.9
2.1 2.4
18.1
12.0
19.8
16.9
11.4
15.0
4.23.0
6.56.59.0
6.38.7
12.3
9.4
21.4
11.2
7.9
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 XI Plan 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
% A
lloca
tion
RKVY: allocation to different sub-scetors in agriculture
Livestock Crop PHM Micro-irrigation Horticulture
Distribution of Resources
•More than 20%projects toLivestock sector•Very thindistribution ofresources in manyprojects
– Impact on scale and outcome
– Effect on outreach
36.5 37.4 36.6
30.228.4
32.6
26.423.9
26.2 25.627.4
25.5 26.127.8
25.6 26.426.9
29.026.4 27.3
5.8 6.04.5
6.84.2
5.43.0
4.4 3.8 3.73.5 4.4 4.2 4.6 3.7 4.2 4.6 4.25.9 5.0
12.911.3 10.8
12.414.3
12.5
16.8 17.214.8
16.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Per c
ent p
roje
cts
RKVY: projects sanctioned in varoious subsectors
Livestock Crop PHM Micro-irrigation Horticulture
Critical Analytical Pathways-A MISSING LINK
•Production Growth(Based on the information-Chhattisgarh, Goa, Jharkhand,Karnataka, MP, Odisha and
Puducherry)
–Over 51% projects in < Rs 1 crore category emanated without SAP
–More than 75% projects in >20 crore emanated from SAP
–Non-SAP/DAP projects prevailed over SAP-DAP projects in terms of allocation
39.5
65.667.0
68.4
75.7
48.6
44.2
53.250.5
53.1
60.5
34.433.0
31.6
24.3
51.4
55.8
46.849.5
46.9
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
< 1 Crore
1-5 crore
5-10 crore
10-20 crore
> 20 Crore
< 1 Crore
1-5 crore
5-10 crore
10-20 crore
> 20 Crore
Per c
ent
Projects/ Allocation
Projects with SAP Projects without SAP
58.05
67.3
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
20 Total 20 Total
Per c
ent
Number/allocation
Infarstructure
Projects with SAP Projects without SAP
Critical Analytical Pathways-A MISSING LINK
•Infrastructure (Based on the information-Chhattisgarh, Goa, Jharkhand, Karnataka, MP, Odisha and Puducherry)
– Over 65% projects in < Rs 1 crore category emanated without SAP
– More than 56% projects and 65% allocation in >20 crore category emanated from non-SAP route
– Non-SAP/DAP projects prevailed over SAP-DAP projects in terms of allocation
– Need to reversed for optimum utilization of capital formation
NEED A STRONG DATA BASE FOR RAINFED AGRICULTURE
Generate separate data for rainfed farming- over50% of our geographies unreported
• rainfed farming and farmers• irrigation systems• seed scenario• infrastructure
Separate estimates for
• rainfed crops production and productivity• Livestock and their products
Slide Number 1����Water Stressed Cropping/Livestock Water stressed areas provide maximum Protein & Fat�Poverty among Farm HouseholdsSlide Number 5Need a Paradigm ShiftMove from Commodity centric to an area-focussed approachWater and Irrigation: Issues Slide Number 9Knowledge-based Agriculture�Improved inputs, Diversification and R&D�Water Management: OpportunitiesSlide Number 12Seeds, Fertilizer & PesticidesSlide Number 14Farm MechanizationNew Technologies: GM New Technologies: GM New Technologies: Precision FarmingShift to High Value Commodities�Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Farmers Centric Agriculture�Farmer Producer Organisations Remunerative PricesFarmer Distress and ReliefIndustry-agriculture farmer linkages��Industry-Agriculture-Farmer LinkagesGovernment as facilitatorUtilize the UnderutilizedENHANCING PUBLIC & PRIVATE INVESTMENTS�(CONVERGENCES OF RESOURCES)Rationalizing Allocation �Critical For Capital FormationDistribution of Resources Critical Analytical Pathways- �A MISSING LINK Critical Analytical Pathways- �A MISSING LINK NEED a strong data base for Rainfed AgricultureSlide Number 36