Report to theReport to theInteragency Task ForceInteragency Task Force
ofofW G 1 on Climate and W G 1 on Climate and
DisastersDisastersPalais des Nations, Palais des Nations, 10 to 11 April 200310 to 11 April 2003
Convener of WG 1 WMOConvener of WG 1 WMO
A. Inauguration of CIIFEN
B. El Nino Developments and Outlooks
C. Merging databases (Climate and Disasters)
D. Future Activities
ActivitiesActivities
Inauguration of Inauguration of CIIFENCIIFEN9 to 10 January 20039 to 10 January 2003
Interim Director, Jose Luis Interim Director, Jose Luis SantosSantos
Plan for activities in 2003 and Plan for activities in 2003 and 20042004
CIIFEN - GuayaquilCIIFEN - Guayaquil
11stst meeting at CIIFEN – 31 March – 4 April meeting at CIIFEN – 31 March – 4 April Regional Climate Data Rescue and Regional Climate Data Rescue and
Management SeminarManagement Seminar Develop plans to complete databases and manage Develop plans to complete databases and manage
the datathe data 23 countries participating23 countries participating
GoalGoal Develop plansDevelop plans Establish CIIFEN as a centre for regional activitiesEstablish CIIFEN as a centre for regional activities
22ndnd Meeting Meeting Climate Outlook Forum Climate Outlook Forum
July 2003 July 2003
12 countries – climate predictions12 countries – climate predictions GoalGoal
Establish CIIFEN as regional focus for climate Establish CIIFEN as regional focus for climate predictionprediction
Downscale Global Circulation Model outputDownscale Global Circulation Model output
El- Niño Developments El- Niño Developments
1.1. El-Niño weakening rapidly – expected to El-Niño weakening rapidly – expected to move to neutral conditions by May 2003move to neutral conditions by May 2003
2.2. El-Niño Outlooks issued inEl-Niño Outlooks issued inJanuary 2003January 2003April 2003April 2003
3.3. Will continue to issue during neutral phaseWill continue to issue during neutral phase
Merging Databases Merging Databases (climate and disasters)(climate and disasters)
1.1. WG 1 & 3 have discussedWG 1 & 3 have discussed
2.2. Briefing provided to WG-3 of activitiesBriefing provided to WG-3 of activities
3.3. WG-1 is proceeding with pilot project in ChileWG-1 is proceeding with pilot project in Chile
Pilot ProjectPilot Project
1.1. Chile Met Service will provide estimate of Chile Met Service will provide estimate of costscosts
2.2. Secure funding necessarySecure funding necessary
3.3. Sort disaster database in Chile for floods onlySort disaster database in Chile for floods only
4.4. Define parameters to sort climate databaseDefine parameters to sort climate database
5.5. Perform database sort and mergePerform database sort and merge
Goal of pilot and what can Goal of pilot and what can be accomplishedbe accomplished
1.1. Determine if databases in developing Determine if databases in developing countries are adequate to provide useable countries are adequate to provide useable data and resultsdata and results
2.2. Determine sort criteria for both climate and Determine sort criteria for both climate and disaster databasesdisaster databases
3.3. Proof of concept to implement in other Proof of concept to implement in other countriescountries
Proposed Future Activities Proposed Future Activities for WG-1for WG-1
Continue El-Niño OutlooksContinue El-Niño Outlooks
Complete pilot study in Chile & implement Complete pilot study in Chile & implement resultsresults
Begin development of Climate Alert SystemBegin development of Climate Alert System
Develop Regional map of disasters by climate Develop Regional map of disasters by climate extremesextremes
Draft workplan 2003 for the ISDR-TF Draft workplan 2003 for the ISDR-TF WG1 on Climate and DisastersWG1 on Climate and Disasters
Area Actions/Outputs Timetable
Continuing issuing the El Nino outlooks
Routine monitoring of the ENSO and issuing routine reports
ON-GOING
Begin developing a system in concert with WMO on climate anomalies called the CLIMATE ALERT SYSTEM
Project initiation has been completed by WMO CCl. An expert team has been established. Coordination with other agencies is now required
Completed Meeting planned for late 2003 By 2004
In conjunction with WG3, continue the merging of database tasks as defined in May 2002 meeting
Climate databases sorted by parameter limits in Chile. Limits need to be defined for disasters
Contact Chile to begin activities. Complete 3 months after disasters limits defined. November 2003
Begin defining climate related disasters associated with climate extremes that can tie into number 2 above
Action by WG-3 to define geographical and parameter based disasters.
November 2003