(1)
Credit Crunch Tracking
June 2011
Cautious Optimism Resurfaces …
(2)
Cautious Optimism Resurfaces…
In spite of the current debt crisis in Greece/Europe, Irish consumers remain as optimistic as post-election three months ago, and much more optimistic than a year ago.
Expectations for the Irish economy have also improved, and as a people we claim to be much “happier” than three months ago.
Our monthly spending has increased also slightly…
… however concerns over the World economy are stifling further increases.
(3)
Our personal outlook on the recession is much more positive than a year ago and unchanged from the level recorded post-election.
(4)
393530
33High impact (8-10)
Limited Impact (1-3)
Personal Recession Impact – Overall
Average 6.7
Some Impact (4-7) 52
6.2
March‘11%
52
159
May‘10%
6.2
June‘11%
47
18
Less people feel personally impacted by the recession than a year ago.
But more than 1 in 3 still feel the recession has had a major impact on them personally.
5.9
49
21
Sept‘10%
(5)
39 39 3942
48
37
26
36
4145
36
3027
33 3230
33
19
24
34 34
27
32 3133
30
41
35
18
27
39 40
27
3533
3634 33
43
20
32
38 3734
18-34%
35-44%
45-64%
AGE
65+%
Any%
None%
CHILDREN
Male%
Female%
GENDER
ABC1%
C2DE%
SOCIALCLASS
Personal Recession Impact Overall– Net High Impact (8-10)
TOTAL%
The 45-64 year olds feel more impacted overall by the recession than any other demographic group and are considerably more impacted now than in March.
June‘11
May‘10
March‘11
Sept‘10
(6)
The impact on our monthly spending and way of life has lessoned over the past year, with a decreased impact on job security in the past three months.
(7)
41 32 37 35 3323 29 29
Monthly Spending
Average
Your Way Of Life
High impact (8-10)
Limited Impact (1-3)
Some Impact (4-7)
Impact of Recession on….
5.7
48
March‘11%
6.2
46
March‘11%
-2% 0%
+1% +1%17
23
6.1
50
May‘10%
17
6.5
44
May‘10%
15
+1% -1%
6.1
47
June‘11%
18
5.7
47
June‘11%
24
5.8
47
Sept‘10%
21
5.5
52
Sept‘10%
25
(8)
Full-time Workers Part-time Workers
Impact of Recession on Job Security
30 22 21
4536 35 37
21
Average
High impact (8-10)
Limited Impact (1-3)
Some Impact (4-7)
5.9
40
March‘11%
4.9
39
March‘11%
-1%+2%
-4% -4%
2539
5.2
33
May‘10%
37
6.5
34
May‘10%
21
+5%+2%
35
June‘11%
44
36
June‘11%
27
4.5 5.94.4
33
Sept‘10%
46
5.7
34
Sept‘10%
30
(9)
Expectations for the Irish economy continue to improve – after falling back at the end of last year with the austerity budget
(10)
38 39 3235 29 29 30 31
40 4129 17 21 30 23 19
9 718
21 2317 19 21
1 1
21 2
2 2 2
Much better (5)
Much worse (1)
Average
Stay the same (3)Slightly better (4)
Slightly worse (2)
1.92
12
1.88
11
2.32
18
NET Same/Better (3-5) 22 19 38
How do you expect the Irish economy to fare in the next 6 months?
May‘09%
July‘09%
Oct‘09%
2.54
26
48
Feb‘10%
2.57
51
May‘10%
26
Almost 1 in 4 expect the economy to improve over the next 6 months.
Half do not expect the economy to worsen over the next 6 months.
2.32
41
Sept‘10%
22
2.47
47
March‘11%
25
2.56
50
June‘11%
27
(11)
The youth has the most positive expectations for the economy.
While we see a significant decline in expectations among the elderly.
(12)
Expectations for the Irish economy 6 months from now % Stating they believe it will be the same or better (3-5)
50 5248
55
43
50 49 49 49 4850
18-34%
35-44%
45-64%
AGE
65+%
Any%
None%
CHILDREN
Male%
Female%
GENDER
ABC1%
C2DE%
SOCIALCLASS
TOTAL%
Change since
Mar ‘10+3% +3% +4% +6% +4% +7% -10% +1% +2% +4% +2%
(13)
In contrast, expectations for the World economy continue to decline – perhaps driven by the debt crisis in Greece
(14)
33 3421 17 21 21 24 26
15 11
85
8 8 1013
31 3144
53 43 41 37 33
3 2
5
56 5
53
Much better (5)
Much worse (1)
Average
Stay the same (3)
Slightly better (4)
Slightly worse (2)
NET Same/Better (3-5)
2.72
16
2.77
18
3.18
19
50 51 68
How do you expect the World economy to fare in the next 6 months?
May‘09%
July‘09%
Oct‘09%
3.36
20
78
Feb‘10%
3.17
22
71
May‘10%
Almost 2 in 5 expect the World economy to fare worse in the next 6 months.
But more than 1 in 3 expect the World economy to improve in the next 6 months.
3.13
25
71
Sept‘10%
3.04
23
66
March‘11%
2.88
25
61
June‘11%
(15)
Expectations for the housing market and job security in Ireland are unchanged over the past three months.
(16)
44 40 3735 32 37 35 37
37 38 3639 36 34 32 32
21 22 19 13 13 14 18 17 42 4028 21 21 21 23 24
15 15 10 12
7 712 12 14 13 12 13
2 21
12 1 2 2 1 3
11 12 1515
1
22 2
22
Much better (5)
Much worse (1)
Average
The Housing Market 6 months from now?
Job security 6 months from now?
2.29
Stay the same (3)
Slightly better (4)
Slightly worse (2)
1.85
20 11
2.32 1.89
23 14
2.43
26
2.24
20
NET Same/Better (3-5) 33 1937 2243 34
2.59
36
53
2.34
27
40
May‘09%
July‘09%
Oct‘09%
Feb‘10%
May‘09%
July‘09%
Oct‘09%
Feb‘10%
How do you expect the Housing and Job markets to fare in the next 6 months?
2.60
55
May‘10%
2.39
42
May‘10%
38 27
2.55
49
Sept‘10%
32
2.40
45
Sept‘10%
31
2.40
47
Mar‘11%
36
2.37
45
Mar‘11%
32
2.43
46
June‘11%
32
2.38
44
June‘11%
28
(17)
There is an increase in happiness among Irish consumers since March, with less people suggesting their quality of life, motivation and energy has declined
(18)
35 26 22 15 24 16 26 20
1920
2026 25
1313 16
Better
Worse
The Same
Change Compared To Same Time Last Year in ....
Quality of Life
%
Your Happiness
%
Your Energy for Life
%
Your Motivation
%
74%85% 84% 80%
Our happiness has improved with almost 1 in 5 feeling happier now that at the same time last year. Our quality of life has also improved but 1 in 4 feel that their
quality of life have declined since last year.
June‘11
61 66 64 55
March‘11
52 62 56 48
(19)
% Better/Same as same time last year
Quality of LifeYour
HappinessYour Energy
for LifeYour
Motivation
Total 74 85 84 80
Gender
Male 76 87 90 85
Female 72 83 78 75
Age
18-34 77 85 84 81
35-44 69 83 78 74
45-64 69 84 85 80
65+ 85 94 88 85
Social Class
ABC1 73 84 80 77
C2DE 72 85 84 80
Those aged 65 and over have seen a greater positive impact on quality of life and happiness compared to a year ago.
Change Compared To Same Time Last Year Analysed by key demographics
(20)
As a result more people claim to have either already increased monthly expenditure or expect to do so in the next six months…
…but uncertainty is holding further spending back.
(21)
7365
73 70 70 67 68 6774 68 74 72 72 66
74 71
11 12 9 7 10 9 8 7 13 12 12 10 15 17 11 12
1217
13 15 12 17 16 17 9 15 10 1210
1311 11
46
5 8 67 8 9
45
4 6 34
4 6Already increased
Not likely to increase
Entertainment such as going out, eating, drinking or
socialisingGrocery spend
Consumer goods and services – e.g.
hairdresser, clothes, mobile
phone, gaming etc.
Holidays and short
breaks
Likely to increasein next 6 months
Likely to increasein next 12 months
Likelihood to increase spend in...
More people are now claiming to have increased spend across all categories, but especially for entertainment/socialising – with an improved proportion also
saying they will spend more in the next six months
May‘10%
May‘10%
May‘10%
May‘10%
Sept‘10%
Sept‘10%
Sept‘10%
Sept‘10%
Mar‘11%
Mar‘11%
Mar‘11%
Mar‘11%
June‘11%
June‘11%
June‘11%
June‘11%
(22)
% Likely to increase spend in next 12 months
EntertainmentGrocery Spend
Consumer Goods/
Services
Holidays/ Shorter Breaks
Total 22 24 22 23
Gender
Male 21 21 21 24
Female 23 28 23 23
Age
18-34 32 36 29 32
35-44 20 22 18 20
45-64 16 19 18 17
65+ 15 18 20 21
Social Class
ABC1 22 26 21 20
C2DE 22 25 23 26
The 18-34 year olds are most likely to increase spend again... across all categories
(23)
Summary...
• Expectation for how the Irish economy will fare over the next 6 months shows signs of improvement again, after being heavily impacted by the last budget.
• The impact that the recession is having on people personally also appears to be improving.
• Optimism also remains regarding our personal situation, with less people expecting to be impacted by the recession personally and more people feeling happier than the same time last year.
(24)
Summary...
• Most positively this has led to more people claiming to already be spending more and those likely to increase spending in the future – particularly on entertainment and grocery.
• However, this potential increased spending is most likely to be seen particularly seen among those in younger age groups – and it is those in older age groups who have savings set aside that still need to be persuaded.
• The reticence to spend is being underpinned by uncertainty with the World economy, where concerns continue to grow, fostered by events in Greece.
(25)
Methodology – RED Express
• 1,000 telephone interviews (CATI) using a random digital sample to ensure coverage of all households, including ex-directory.
• Quotas were set and data weighted to ensure a national representative sample of the population aged 18+ years.
• This is the 11th wave of the credit crunch tracking – fieldwork was conducted the 20th-22nd June 2011.