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Securities and insurance products and services –
Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured | are not bank guaranteed | may lose value
Week 1 – January 7, 2021Michael Skordeles, AIF®
Senior U.S. Macro Strategist
COVID-19 economic data tracker
Trend watch and what’s new this week
The spike in U.S. virus trends due to the omicron variant nationally
(slide 3) and regionally (slide 7) continues. Omicron appears to be
milder than prior variants (slide 8) and has quickly crowded out all other
variants (slide 9). However, it is causing a ramp up in hospitalizations
(slide 10), which is problematic. We also revisit the school-age cases
(slide 11), which held steady over winter break.
This week, we revisit the massive West Coast port traffic tsunami (slide
12). While there’s been a lot of attention on the bottlenecks at U.S.
ports, which has caused goods to be delayed, the top five U.S. ports
have handled nearly 18% more cargo year-to-date compared to 2019.
We also highlight mobility by year (slide 13), which shows Americans
gradually becoming more active despite the pandemic.
Lastly, we check in on movie box office trends (slide 14). The number of
ticket sold more than doubled in 2021 from 2020, but is still down 60%
from pre-pandemic levels. This too shows Americans are gradually
venturing out more.
Bottom line
Economic activity weakened, which is typical as most people and
businesses coast into year end. Still, there’s a fair amount of noise in
the incoming data due to the combination of omicron, holiday
seasonality, and a series of winter storms.
These developments will certainly result in softer data to start the New
Year as some of these issues have spilled into January. That said, it’s
important to understand such delays typically result in pushing back
activity rather than cancelling it, which equates to outright losses.
Similarly, many schools have reverted to virtual learning and
companies have pushed back return-to-office plans. While these are
setbacks, they’re temporary delays rather than permanent decisions.
They also illustrate resiliency as such setbacks are largely being
handled as routine events using protocols developed early in the
pandemic instead of as major disruptions.
U.S. COVID-19 economic data tracker matrix
I n d i c a t o rR e l a t i v e
t r e n dW h a t w e ’ r e w a t c h i n g
U.S. state reopenings
Economic activity weakened, which is typical as most people and businesses coast into year end.
The spike in omicron cases likely contributed to the weakness. Still, overall activity levels are
consistent with recent trends and seasonal norms.
TSA air passenger
throughput
Weekly passengers fell 8.7% WoW, down for a second straight week, to 12.4 million, which was -22.9% below
the 2019 weekly average of 16.1M. Passenger counts are -17.9% under the same week in January 2019.
OpenTable restaurant
bookings
Continues to bounce around as it rose to -7% mid-week then slumped to -12.4%. Top positive states were led
by Florida (+10%); bottom was New York (-62%). Top city was Miami (+27%); bottom was San Fran (-73%).
Google mobility DActivities remain skewed as the year winds down. 7-day averages relative to 2020: Parks -14%, Transit -31%,
Grocery/Pharmacy -3%, Residential +12%, Retail/Restaurant/Recreation -15%, Workplaces -42%.
Hotel occupancy Occupancy jumped 10 percentage points to 54.3%. The average daily rate jumped to $157.91, up 15.1% from
the same week in Jan. 2019, while revenue per available room rose to $85.74, up 27.4% from Jan. 2019.
Apartment rent
payments
Payments through December 6 slipped to 77.1% from 78.2% in November. Full month rents for November ’21
edged up to 93.1% from 93.0% in October, but were down from 95.2% in November ’19.
Freight
Rail carloads fell 14.5% MoM during December, but were 4.1% above December 2019 levels. Shipping
container counts for the top five U.S. ports fell 5% in November, but volumes were up 17.8% YTD compared to
2019.
Staffing index Dropped to 97.1 during the week of the last week of December, which is typical, from 107.9 two weeks ago. We
expect it to rebound in early January as it has historically. The low for this cycle was 59.6 set in April 2020.
Trend relative to whether it is favorable for economic growth:
Positive qNegative DNeutral / Mixed
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Our World in Data, Transportation Security Administration, OpenTable,
Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, STR/CoStar, National Multifamily Housing Council Rent
Payment Tracker, American Staffing Association. Week-over-weak and year-over-year change are abbreviated
as WoW and YoY, respectively.
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University through January 6, 2021. Data for 50 U.S. states plus American Samoa, Washington D.C., Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin
Islands. 7-day moving average (DMA).
U.S. cases, hospitalizations spiking higher, but death rate holding steady
2,189,060
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Ma
r-2
1
Apr-
21
Ma
y-2
1
Jun-2
1
Jul-2
1
Aug-2
1
Sep-2
1
Oct-
21
No
v-2
1
De
c-2
1
Jan-2
2
Tests performed 7-day moving average
605,833
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Oct-
20
No
v-2
0
De
c-2
0
Jan-2
1
Feb
-21
Ma
r-2
1
Apr-
21
Ma
y-2
1
Jun-2
1
Jul-2
1
Aug-2
1
Sep-2
1
Oct-
21
No
v-2
1
De
c-2
1
Jan-2
2
New confirmed cases 7-day moving average
128,461
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Oct-
20
No
v-2
0
De
c-2
0
Jan-2
1
Feb
-21
Ma
r-2
1
Apr-
21
Ma
y-2
1
Jun-2
1
Jul-2
1
Aug-2
1
Sep-2
1
Oct-
21
No
v-2
1
De
c-2
1
Jan-2
2
Total hospitalized currently
1,384
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
Oct-
20
No
v-2
0
De
c-2
0
Jan-2
1
Feb
-21
Ma
r-2
1
Apr-
21
Ma
y-2
1
Jun-2
1
Jul-2
1
Aug-2
1
Sep-2
1
Oct-
21
No
v-2
1
De
c-2
1
Jan-2
2
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
U.S. COVID-19 deathsTotal deaths (r-axis)
Change in deaths 7-DMA (l-axis)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22
Cumulative vaccine doses administered (in billions)
China (2.87B)
India (1.48B)
European Union (753.7M)
United States (513.8M)
Brazil (333.6M)
Indonesia (283.5M)
Data sources: Truist IAG, Our World in Data, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through January 5, 2021. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and territories.
Figures for the United Kingdom are not included in the European Union. 7-day moving average (DMA).
Boosters helping drive global vaccinations higher again
World
(9.3B, not shown)
8.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Daily pace of vaccine doses administered in China (7-DMA, in millions)
33.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Global vaccine doses administered per day(7-DMA, in millions)
3.91
2.67
0.620.35 0.28 0.21 0.13
World Asia Europe NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
UnitedStates
Africa
Fully vaccinated by region (in billions)
Data sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left, bottom right: Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through January 6, 2021. Top right, bottom left: Our World in Data,
Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through January 5, 2022. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and territories. *Fully vaccinated is defined as receiving two
doses on different days (regardless of time interval) of the two-dose mRNA series or receiving a single-dose vaccine regimen.
Nearly 75% of Americans adults are fully vaccinated (over 200 million) and over 35% have already received a booster
2.8%
13.100%
21.7%
16.8%14.4%
18.9%
7.0%3.5% 1.8%
0.0% 0.1% 0.7%1.7%
3.9%
17.4%
22.0%
26.1%27.9%
0-4 5-17 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75-84 85+
U.S. COVID-19 percentage of cases and deaths by age
Cases Deaths
62.4%71.4% 73.1%
87.7%74.0%
84.1% 86.0%95.0%
35.3% 38.3%
59.6%
% of totalpopulation
% of Americansage 12 and over
% of adults % of Americansover 65
U.S. vaccinations (percentage of population)
Fully vaccinated* At least one dose Booster dose
0.07
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22
U.S. pace of fully vaccinated (7-DMA, in millions)
205.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22
Number of Americans fully vaccinated (in millions)
Data sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left: Bloomberg, NY Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index through January 1, 2022. Top right: (U.S. Community Mobility) Google
COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports 7-day average through January 3. Bottom left: Bloomberg, OpenTable 7-day average through January 5. Bottom right: Bloomberg, Transportation Security Administration (TSA)
7-day average through January 5.
Activity-based trends have shifted recently with the holiday season
-12.4%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
Aug-2
0
Sep-2
0
Oct-
20
No
v-2
0
De
c-2
0
Jan-2
1
Feb
-21
Ma
r-2
1
Apr-
21
Ma
y-2
1
Jun-2
1
Jul-2
1
Aug-2
1
Sep-2
1
Oct-
21
No
v-2
1
De
c-2
1
OpenTable bookings % change compared to 2019 (7-day average)
7.2%
-12%-8%-4%0%4%8%
12%16%
Jun-2
0
Jul-2
0
Aug-2
0
Sep-2
0
Oct-
20
No
v-2
0
De
c-2
0
Jan-2
1
Feb
-21
Ma
r-2
1
Apr-
21
Ma
y-2
1
Jun-2
1
Jul-2
1
Aug-2
1
Sep-2
1
Oct-
21
No
v-2
1
De
c-2
1
NY Fed weekly economic index
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75U.S. community mobility (7-day average)
Grocery & Pharmacy TransitWorkplaces ParksResidential Retail & Recreation
1.77
0
1
2
3
1 41 81 121 161 201 241 281 321 361Day of the year
TSA checkpoint traveler throughput (7-day average, in millions)
2019 2020 2021 2022
Omicron spiking cases again
The onset of the omicron variant has quickly pushed new infections higher, with all four regions making new highs. Cases in New York state have
exploded higher, as have California and Texas. Cases are up dramatically in Florida, but reporting is sporadic.
Data source: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University, data through January 6, 2022.
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
COVID-19 new cases by region(7-day moving average)
West Midwest Northeast South
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21
COVID-19 new cases – select states (7-day
moving average)
Texas
Ohio
California
Illinois
New Jersey
New York
After 2nd wave, pandemic has been less deadly thanks to vaccines and better treatments
While the omicron variant has spiked infections, the COVID-19 pandemic has become less deadly. Some epidemiologists theorize that—between infections and vaccines—the virus is running out of unexposed people to infect. Additionally, with the proliferation of at-home test, it’s also likely that there millions of new cases are underreported, suggesting severe outcomes (hospitalizations/death) are becoming less prevalent. All of this means the virus is becoming more manageable.
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University through January 2, 2022. Data for 50 U.S. states plus American Samoa, Washington D.C., Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin
Islands. 7-day moving average (DMA).
404,743
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Mar-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
New confirmed cases 7-day moving average
Omicron
Second
waveDelta
variant
Initial
outbreak 1,326
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Mar-20 Jun-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
Change in deaths 7-day moving average
Initial
outbreak
Delta
variant
Second
wave
Omicron
Omicron variant now dominant U.S. strain, crowding out delta and all others
The omicron variant was first detected in the U.S in late November. Within four weeks, it became the dominant variant and now appears to be pushing out
all of the other variants. While highly infectious, some epidemiologists theorize this crowding out by omicron will make the COVID-19 coronavirus
become less deadly and much more like the seasonal coronaviruses, which are manageable.
Data sources: Truist IAG, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Weekly data from September 18, 2021 through January 1, 2022.
99.1% 99.2% 99.2% 99.1% 99.2% 99.0% 99.2% 98.7% 98.6% 98.3% 99.7% 99.3%87.0%
26.6% 26.6%
4.6%
0.7% 12.6%
73.2% 73.2%
95.4%
0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sep. 18 Sep. 25 Oct. 2 Oct. 9 Oct. 16 Oct. 23 Oct. 30 Nov. 6 Nov. 13 Nov. 20 Nov. 27 Dec. 4 Dec. 11 Dec. 18 Dec. 25 Jan. 1
New U.S. COVID-19 cases by variant
Delta variant Omicron variant All other variants
0.1% Omicron
first detected
Hospitals in nine states now above 20% COVID-19 patients
The national average is nearly 17% of hospital beds are occupied by COIVD-19 patients. Nine states, plus Washington, D.C., are currently above 20%.
Data sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Department of Health & Human Services. Data through January 6, 2022.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Ma
ryla
nd
Ne
w Y
ork
Ne
w J
ers
ey
Co
nne
cticut
Geo
rgia
Illin
ois
Penn
sylv
an
ia
Ohio
Mic
hig
an
India
na
De
law
are
Virgin
ia
Wis
consin
Rh
ode
Isla
nd
Min
nesota
Mis
so
uri
US
Ave
rage
Kentu
cky
Arizona
No
rth
Caro
lina
Texas
Flo
rida
West V
irgin
ia
Ca
liforn
ia
Ma
ssachu
se
tts
Ne
w M
exic
o
Ne
va
da
Washin
gto
n
Ne
bra
ska
Ma
ine
South
Caro
lina
Ne
w H
am
pshire
Ten
nessee
Okla
hom
a
Kansas
Co
lora
do
Iow
a
South
Dakota
Mis
sis
sip
pi
No
rth
Dakota
Ala
bam
a
Lo
uis
iana
Ark
an
sa
s
Uta
h
Ore
go
n
Idaho
Ha
waii
Verm
on
t
Mo
nta
na
Ala
ska
Wyo
min
g
Percentage of inpatient beds occupied by COVID-19 patients
U.S. school-aged new cases held steady during winter break
The total number of new COVID-19 cases of school-
aged children held steady at 13.1% of all new U.S.
cases for the past three weeks.
New cases in the 5-11 age group stayed at 6.0% in
the past week. Meanwhile, the 12-15 age cohort
remained at 4.4% and the 16-17 age group held at
2.7%.
There’ve been 710 deaths in school-aged children
during the entire pandemic, or 0.1% of all U.S.
COVID deaths.
Data sources: Truist IAG, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC). Data from July 29, 2021 through January 5, 2021.
4.2% 4.3%4.5%
4.7%4.9%
5.1%
5.4%5.6%
5.8%6.0% 6.0%
3.8% 3.8% 3.9%4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%
2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
13.5%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22
New COVID-19 cases of school-aged children as a percentage of total new U.S. cases
Total cases (r-axis) Ages 5-11 (l-axis)
Ages 12-15 (l-axis) Ages 16-17 (l-axis)
Massive West Coast port traffic appears to be easing
The two largest U.S. ports—Los Angeles and Long
Beach—share San Pedro Bay. Prior to late 2020,
most ships never anchored in San Pedro Bay aside
from rare occasions due to storms, maintenance, or
an accident, and it would be a handful of ships if it did
occur. In 2021, an average of 54 container ships
carrying cargo were anchored* per day, peaking at
109 in early November. It has fallen to 45 this week.
Meanwhile, the ports have averaged 1.7 million
containers per month in 2021, which is above the pre-
pandemic all-time record of 1.66 million set back in
October 2018.
Sources: Truist IAG, Marine Exchange of Southern California; data from November 12, 2020 through January 6, 2022.
* Container ships anchored includes anchored, loitering or in designated drift areas.
167
102109
45
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Nov-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Dec-21
Ships in port of LA/Long Beach
Total ships Container ships anchored*
Despite the pandemic, Americans are gradually becoming more active
Following the 2020 lockdowns, activity levels have
gradually improved, which is clear when viewing the
data by year. As the pandemic stretches into a third
calendar year, mobility data illustrates that American
are becoming more comfortable doing activities.
The average began 2022 at -15.5% compared to the
pre-pandemic baseline in early 2020 (indexed to
zero), but is above the -19.4% reading in early 2021.
We expect this gradually increasing trend will
continue and improve further as 2022 progresses.
Data sources: Truist IAG, (U.S. Community Mobility) Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports 7-day average from February 15,
2020 through January 3, 2022.
-19.4%
-15.5%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
1 61 121 181 241 301 361
Hundre
ds
Day of the year
U.S. community mobility by year (7-day average)
2020 2021 2022
2020
lockdown
period
Cinema ticket sales double in ’21, still down 60% from pre-pandemic
Box office sales jumped thanks to the latest Spider-Man blockbuster, helping sales climb to $4.4 billion for all of 2021 and 486,900 tickets sold. While that
more than doubled the pandemic-impacted 2020 figures ($2.1B and 229,200 tickets), the number of moviegoers remains 61.4% below the pre-pandemic
three-year average of 1.26 million.
Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, BoxOffice Media. Left chart: weekly data through December 30, 2021; right chart: annual data.
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2018 2019 2020 2021
Weekly box office gross sales ($ in millions)
Spider-Man:
No Way Home
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
'82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18 '21
Annual box office ticket sales (number of tickets sold in millions)
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CN2021-0013 EXP01-2023