Reassignment Plan 2013-14 Committee
Recommendation
Monday, September 24, 20126:00 p.m.
2
TIME-LINE
Jan-Aug 2012
Committee Deliberations/
Monthly Reports to the School
Board
Aug - 2012Committee
Recommendations Presented to
the School Board
Aug – Dec 2012
Public Input/ Community Engagement
Board of Education Approval
August 2013Implementatio
n
3
The PROCESS
Michael Miller, OREd
Contiguous boundaries
Respect neighbor-
hoods
Proximity to schools
Modify feeder systems
Stay within enrollment capacities
Consider anticipated
growth
Enrollment balance
4
Challenges
Explore attendance zone scenarios for the new Rocky Mount HS
and other schools while considering Board Priorities.
Integrated Planning for School And Community (IPSAC)
Data-driven and policy-based model for forecasting school enrollment and determining the optimal locations for new schools and attendance boundaries.
Forecasting Land Use Studies Out-of-Capacity Analysis Attendance Boundary Optimization School Site Optimization
5
What is an Optimal Scenario?
Operations Research techniques solve large-scale optimization problems involving many variables and constraints.
The driving variable in the optimization algorithm is total distance traveled by students to school. The solutions called scenarios generated by these OR techniques are optimal in the following way:the system-wide student travel distance is
minimized while satisfying constraints such as building capacity and demographic balance
6
IPSAC – Methodology
Policy
Data
Optimal Scenario
7
IPSAC – Methodology
OUTCOMES:Addresses utilization concernsReduces system-wide student
travel distanceContiguous attendance zonesImpacts large number of childrenImpacts student balance metricsDoes not improve feeder pattern
8
Proximity + Utilization
OUTCOMES:Lessens reassignment impactBetter balances student metricsBetter aligns feeder patternsContiguous attendance zonesAddresses many utilization
concerns
9
Impact + Metrics
10
IPSAC – Methodology
Scenario Review & RevisionOREd review of optimal scenarios
Transportation issuesFeeder pattern considerationReassignment impact
General Committee requests for additional optimal scenarios (Two requests made and presented)
Individual Committee member requests for scenario revisions (Two requests made and presented)
Free/Reduced Lunch – percentage of impacted population eligible for Free or Reduced Lunch . Data supplied in aggregate form by NRMPS, calculated across K-12.
Academic Proficiency – percentage of impacted population scoring Proficient in BOTH Reading and Math. 2010 testing data supplied by NRMPS, calculated across 2011-12 grades 4-9.
Minority – percentage of non-white impacted population . Data obtained from NCWISE download, calculated by level (E/M/H)
Data represented in aggregate form only as percentage of school population.
11
Student Balance Metrics
Metrics measure current student demographics by residence.
Metrics are used as planning tool for demographic balance.
Metrics are not intended as a forecast of future school demographics/performance.
12
Student Balance Metrics
High School Attendance ZonesCurrent/Recommended
(See data tables in handouts.)
Nash Central Northern Nash Rocky Mount Southern Nash
Student Count CURRENT 1232 1204 1130 1232
Student Count RECOMMEND 1116 1234 1391 1057
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
9-12 Student Count
Statistics based on residence (2011 geocode).Does not measure impact of special programs such as IB.
Nash Central Northern Nash Rocky Mount Southern Nash
Utilization CURRENT 1.07130434782609 1.04695652173913 0.81294964028777 1.15355805243446
Utilization RECOMMEND 0.970434782608696 1.07304347826087 1.00071942446043 0.989700374531835
10%30%50%70%90%
110%130%
Utilization
Nash Central Northern Nash Rocky Mount Southern Nash
Minority (9-12) CUR-RENT
0.667207792207792 0.690199335548173 0.835398230088496 0.513798701298701
Minority (9-12) REC-OMMEND
0.629928315412186 0.556726094003242 0.831056793673616 0.500473036896878
5%
25%
45%
65%
85%
Minority %
Statistics based on residence (2011 geocode).Does not measure impact of special programs such as IB.
Nash Central Northern Nash Rocky Mount Southern Nash
FRL (K-12) CUR-RENT
0.666460829493088 0.651086556169429 0.718038674033149 0.64117389298893
FRL (K-12) REC-OMMEND
0.653429541595926 0.5733342154009 0.75704163941574 0.66889689578714
5%
25%
45%
65%
Free/Reduced Lunch %
Nash Central Northern Nash Rocky Mount Southern Nash
PROF (3-8) CUR-RENT
0.597285067873303 0.614014933946008 0.530638029058749 0.631374453618261
PROF (3-8) REC-OMMEND
0.572347266881029 0.687109596819989 0.515570934256055 0.624854819976771
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%Academic Proficiency %
Middle School Attendance ZonesCurrent/Recommended
Edwards Nash Central Parker Red Oak Southern Nash NEW MS (RM HS site)
Student Count CURRENT 729 633 433 910 1099 0
Student Count RECOM-MEND
488 614 353 890 946 513
100
300
500
700
900
1100
6-8 Student Count
(See data tables in handouts.)
Edwards Nash Central Parker Red Oak Southern Nash NEW MS (RM HS site)
Utilization CURRENT
0.881499395405079
0.944776119402985
0.77737881508079
1.07058823529412
1.29294117647059
0
Utilization RECOM-MEND
0.590084643288996
0.916417910447761
0.633752244165171
1.04705882352941
1.11294117647059
0.684
10%
50%
90%
130%
Utilization
Edwards Nash Central Parker Red Oak Southern Nash NEW MS (RM HS site)
Minority (6-8) CURRENT
0.781893004115226
0.669826224328594
0.877598152424942
0.585714285714286
0.51410373066424
0
Minority (6-8) RECOM-MEND
0.708418891170431
0.495207667731629
0.980169971671388
0.563758389261745
0.53755364806867
0.91015625
10%
50%
90%
Minority %
Edwards Nash Central Parker Red Oak Southern Nash NEW MS (RM HS site)
FRL (K-12) CUR-RENT
0.728409448818898
0.679363699582754
0.7765 0.581846153846154
0.64117389298893
0
FRL (K-12) REC-OMMEND
0.661940850277264
0.544407753050969
0.910032175032175
0.5733342154009 0.66889689578714
0.817447869446963
5%25%45%65%85%
Free/Reduced Lunch %
Edwards Nash Central Parker Red Oak Southern Nash NEW MS (RM HS site)
CURRENT 0.511127063890883
0.541571319603356
0.551357733175915
0.685584562996595
0.631374453618261
0
RECOM-MEND
0.517730496453901
0.676159479251424
0.421965317919075
0.687109596819989
0.624854819976771
0.486238532110092
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
Academic Proficiency %
Elementary School Attendance ZonesCurrent/Recommended
Bailey Baskerville
Benv-enue
Cedar Grove
Coop-ers
Johnson MB Hub-bard
Middle-sex
Nash-ville
Pope Red Oak/Swift Creek
Spring Hope
Willi-ford
Win-stead/Engle-wood
CUR-RENT
620 341 743 221 624 475 492 340 709 279 583 550 437 1081
REC-OM-MEND
620 372 680 221 624 475 492 340 709 279 589 550 437 1107
100300500700900
1100
K-5 Student Count
(See data tables in handouts.)
Bailey Baskerville
Benv-enue
Cedar Grove
Coop-ers
Johnson MB Hub-bard
Middle-sex
Nash-ville
Pope Red Oak/Swift Creek
Spring Hope
Willi-ford
Win-stead/Engle-wood
CURRENT
0.933734939759036
0.798594847775176
1.11227544910
18
0.991031390134529
1.03826955074
875
0.826086956521739
0.9609375
0.813397129186603
1.03958944281
525
0.897106109324759
0.719753086419753
1.01476014760
148
0.752151462994837
0.954104148278906
RECOMMEND
0.933734939759036
0.871194379391101
1.01796407185
629
0.991031390134529
1.03826955074
875
0.826086956521739
0.9609375
0.813397129186603
1.03958944281
525
0.897106109324759
0.727160493827161
1.01476014760
148
0.752151462994837
0.977052074139453
10%
50%
90%
Utilization
Bailey Baskerville
Benv-enue
Cedar Grove
Coop-ers
Johnson MB Hub-bard
Middle-sex
Nash-ville
Pope Red Oak/Swift Creek
Spring Hope
Willi-ford
Win-stead/Engle-wood
CURRENT
0.654838709677419
0.982404692082112
0.737550471063257
0.520361990950226
0.307692307692308
0.995789473684211
0.780487804878049
0.588235294117647
0.493653032440056
0.989247311827957
0.437392795883362
0.514545454545455
0.965675057208238
0.640148011100833
RECOMMEND
0.654838709677419
0.967741935483871
0.739705882352941
0.520361990950226
0.307692307692308
0.995789473684211
0.780487804878049
0.588235294117647
0.493653032440056
0.989247311827957
0.432937181663837
0.514545454545455
0.965675057208238
0.643179765130985
10%
50%
90%
Minority %
Bailey Baskerville
Benv-enue
Cedar Grove
Coop-ers
Johnson MB Hub-bard
Middle-sex
Nash-ville
Pope Red Oak/Swift Creek
Spring Hope
Willi-ford
Win-stead/Engle-wood
CURRENT
0.709450714823175
0.936566265060241
0.684589625738674
0.728067729083666
0.467428797468355
0.909124378109453
0.703311320754717
0.702206266318538
0.520635430038511
0.907741433021807
0.456706210746685
0.650129659643436
0.922113163972286
0.593824966681475
RECOMMEND
0.709450714823175
0.921265474552957
0.684186725018235
0.728067729083666
0.467428797468355
0.909124378109453
0.703311320754717
0.702206266318538
0.520635430038511
0.907741433021807
0.457730103806228
0.650129659643436
0.922113163972286
0.595562714776632
5%
35%
65%
95%
Free/Reduced Lunch %
Bailey Baskerville
Benv-enue
Cedar Grove
Coop-ers
Johnson MB Hub-bard
Middle-sex
Nash-ville
Pope Red Oak/Swift Creek
Spring Hope
Willi-ford
Win-stead/Engle-wood
CURRENT
0.618270799347471
0.450657894736842
0.629283489096573
0.731707317073171
0.729636048526863
0.377232142857143
0.575692963752665
0.613079019073569
0.705801104972376
0.348122866894198
0.721815519765739
0.601973684210526
0.348448687350835
0.606741573033708
RECOMMEND
0.618270799347471
0.453172205438066
0.635578583765112
0.731707317073171
0.729636048526863
0.377232142857143
0.575692963752665
0.613079019073569
0.705801104972376
0.348122866894198
0.722383720930233
0.601973684210526
0.348448687350835
0.606930693069307
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%Academic Proficiency %
Summary: Recommended ScenarioMaximum Utilization: 111% (SNMS, currently
127%)
Minimum Utilization: 59% (Edwards MS, currently 88%)
Maximum MS > HS feeder: 2 (Edwards and New MS)
Maximum ES > MS feeder: 4 (Benvenue ES)
Total students reassigned: 2089Elem: 63 (1 Elem Schools impacted)Mid: 1281 (5 Mid Schools impacted, 513 to new MS)High: 745 (3 High Schools impacted)