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Prospects bright with good rabi
Key takeaways from this edition of FARM FACTS are: 1) Rabi season: Farmers’ better cash flow position aided by higher yields and increase in uptake by government agencies helped sustain rabi growth (sowing up 3% YoY). 2) Crop prices: In contrast to global prices, domestic prices are stable (ex-soybean, pulses). 3) Reservoir storage: Water level
across reservoirs above 55%, indicating timely start of kharif sowing. 4) Global commentary: Remunerative crop prices (up 30% plus) along with favourable climatic conditions across Latam driving growth.
We are confident of agri-input’s growth prospects. Forecast of ‘normal monsoon’ by Skymet and surge in crop prices remain key growth drivers.
Rabi season: Good reservoir levels sustain growth
Aided by good reservoir levels along with strong cash flow/liquidity position of
farmers with bumper kharif, the rabi season has remained healthy despite high base
of last year. Crop sowing has been at record high (up 3% YoY) with wheat driving
improvement in overall sowing. Crop prices have been a mix bag with those of key
crops wheat and maize contracting by more than 10% YoY. However, positive
highlight has been the higher procurement target set by government agencies
despite tepid prices against MSP rates. Going forward, we expect bumper
production in rabi and higher procurement by government agencies to sustain the
buoyancy in agri inputs.
Marginal rise in fertiliser volumes
Fertiliser volumes have remained stable driven by timely start to rabi season.
Improvement in crop sowing (up 3% YoY) led by good reservoir levels helped
improve demand for fertilizer. Till date, fertilizer volumes have been up 2% YoY
during Dec-Feb. Given the high base of Q3FY20, we expect industry volumes to grow
in single digit only in Q4FY21. Going forward, we expect clearance of subsidy
backlog by the government to yield better efficacy and significant reduction in
working capital requirement of fertiliser players.
Crop prices: On uptrend in global markets
Crop prices have surged more than 30% YoY. Such a spurt in agri prices is likely to
be a key positive for agri-input players such as UPL. Also, demand revival across
Latam (after weak Q3FY21) and North America bodes well.
Outlook: Positive post strong kharif
Government estimates peg kharif production at a record high of 148mt. Better crop
prices given higher procurement target along with good reservoir levels are likely
to drive rabi season despite high base of Q3FY20. Globally, remunerative crop prices
along with conducive environment conditions is like to benefit global players such
as UPL.
Top picks: UPL (BUY), Dhanuka Agritech (BUY), Coromandel International (BUY).
India Equity Research Agri Inputs March 10, 2021
FARM FACTS SECTOR UPDATE
Rohan Gupta Bharat Gupta Nihal Mahesh Jham +91 (22) 4040 7416 +91 (22) 6620 3320 +91 (22) 6623 3352 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
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Momentum remains strong post kharif
Rabi crop sowing: Good reservoir levels led to increase in acreage
Good water levels aided by beneficiary monsoon along with good moisture
availability in soil drove improvement in crop sowing (up 3% YoY). Timely start to
sowing, along with good reservoir level, remained key driving factors. Though
excessive spells of rains in southern markets along with cyclones over the region
pushed back sowing to later part of Dec-Jan, momentum picked up gradually with
progress of the season.
Wheat sowing has remained robust with 3% YoY improvement in acreage. Rice
sowing, due to conducive conditions in southern markets, reported 17% YoY growth.
There has been a transition in crop sowing from coarse cereals and jowar towards
groundnut, gram and wheat.
Rabi sowing up 3% YoY
('000 hectare) 2019 2020 2021 % YoY
(20/19)
Crops
Rice 2,531 3,021 3,523 16.6
Wheat 30,036 33,643 34,636 3.0
Coarse Cereals 4,777 5,610 5,168 (7.9)
Jowar 2,503 3,019 2,719 (10.0)
Bajra 13 17 21 21.8
Maize 1,478 1,749 1,694 (3.1)
Ragi 62 46 51 10.9
Barley 720 779 684 (12.2)
Gram 9,619 10,731 11,200 4.4
other pulses 5,558 5,556 5,538 (0.3)
Oilseed 7,947 7,965 8,374 5.1
Rabi sowing 60,451 66,558 68,460 2.9
Source: CMIE, Edelweiss Research
Reservoir status: At par with last year
Water storage available in 91 major reservoirs of the country for the week ending
March 4, 2021, was at 90BCM against 98BCM last year. Continuous rainfall activity
throughout the kharif season has helped keep reservoir levels at par with last year.
Current reservoir levels are up 12% in comparison to past 10 years’ average. Good
reservoir levels are likely to lead to timely start of kharif sowing for next season.
Reservoir level remains above 10 years’ average
4-Mar-21 5-Mar-20
Number of reservoirs 91 91
Live storage at full reservoir level (FRL) 170 170
Current live storage (BCM) 90 98
Current live storage (% of Live Storage) 53 57
Last 10 years' average live storage as % of live capacity at
FRL 41 39
Source: CMIE, Edelweiss Research
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Fertilisers: Moderate growth volumes over Dec-Feb
Fertiliser demand has seen single digit growth over Dec-Feb (up 2% YoY). Going
forward, we expect momentum in fertiliser demand to remain positive with farmers
getting better crop prices for their produce.
Total fertiliser sales increased moderately(up 2% YoY) over Dec-Feb
(in '000 Tonnes) Feb-21 Feb-20 % YoY Jan-21 Jan-20 % YoY Dec-20 Dec-19 % YoY Nov-20 Nov-19 % YoY
DAP 463 478 (3.0) 403 340 18.5 525 665 (21.0) 1,232 1,482 (16.9)
MOP 302 237 27.2 243 176 37.9 274 177 55.1 301 217 38.4
NPKS 1,058 800 32.2 1,089 858 26.9 1,007 935 7.7 1,004 954 5.2
Urea 2,334 2,678 (12.8) 3,405 3,561 (4.4) 3,865 3,883 (0.5) 3,326 3,151 5.6
Compost 18 18 (2.6) 18 19 (4.9) 26 21 25.6 16 20 (23.2)
SSP 415 321 29.2 334 288 15.8 264 255 3.5 346 433 (20.0)
Total 4,590 4,532 1.3 5,492 5,242 4.8 5,961 5,935 0.4 6,225 6,258 (0.5)
Source: Department of Fertilizer, Edelweiss Research
Manufactured sales remained muted in Feb-21
(in '000 Tonnes) Feb-21 Feb-20 % YoY Jan-21 Jan-20 % YoY Dec-20 Dec-19 % YoY Nov-20 Nov-19 % YoY
DAP 342 387 (11.6) 308 267 15.2 376 438 (14.0) 757 893 (15.3)
MOP 196 181 7.9 151 128 18.4 149 120 23.8 162 120 34.4
NPKS 902 764 18.0 1,021 823 24.0 936 887 5.6 907 894 1.5
Urea 1,947 2,192 (11.2) 2,567 2,518 1.9 2,742 2,746 (0.2) 2,379 2,411 (1.3)
Compost 18 18 (2.6) 18 19 (4.9) 26 21 25.6 16 20 (23.2)
SSP 415 321 29.2 334 288 15.8 264 255 3.5 346 433 (20.0)
Total 3,819 3,865 (1.2) 4,400 4,044 8.8 4,494 4,467 0.6 4,566 4,771 (4.3)
Source: Department of Fertilizer, Edelweiss Research
Traded fertiliser sales increased 15% YoY in Feb-21
(in '000 Tonnes) Feb-21 Feb-20 % YoY Jan-21 Jan-20 % YoY Dec-20 Dec-19 % YoY Nov-20 Nov-19 % YoY
DAP 121 90 33.9 95 73 30.6 149 227 (34.3) 476 590 (19.3)
MOP 106 56 89.1 91 48 89.6 125 56 121.6 139 97 43.4
NPKS 156 36 332.3 68 35 95.9 71 48 47.0 97 61 59.7
Urea 387 485 (20.2) 838 1,043 (19.6) 1,123 1,136 (1.2) 948 739 28.2
Compost
SSP
Total 770 668 15.4 1,092 1,198 (8.8) 1,468 1,468 0.0 1,659 1,487 11.6
Source: Department of Fertilizer, Edelweiss Research
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Crop prices: Sharp increase in pulses and soybean
Crop prices have improved across the past six months. Though prices of wheat and
maize have contracted 13% and 22% YoY, respectively, those of soyabean and pulses
have seen a sharp rebound--up 17% and 15% YoY, respectively.
Crop prices remain remunerative
Price (INR/Quintal) 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 Year
Wheat 1,932 1,764 1,841 2,226
Soybean 4,562 4,165 3,726 3,909
Cotton 5,665 5,432 4,542 5,087
Tur Dal 9,321 9,304 8,405 8,124
Paddy 1,874 1,987 1,853 1,898
Sugar 3,571 3,517 3,615 3,564
Maize 1,382 1,501 1,305 1,783
( % Growth) 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 Year
Wheat (1.6) 3.0 0.8 (13.2)
Soybean 4.5 15.8 22.4 16.7
Cotton 1.5 6.7 21.6 11.4
Tur Dal 0.9 -6.4 14.0 14.7
Paddy (9.2) 2.3 (3.5) (1.3)
Sugar 2.3 (0.1) (0.8) 0.2
Maize 0.3 (4.7) 6.9 (22.5)
Source: Agmarknet, Edelweiss Research
Crop prices have remained on the soft side (ex-arhar and soybean) in comparison to
MSP. Prices of crops (Bajra, maize, ragi and jowar) across open markets/mandis have
remained nearly 20% below MSP.
MSP still remains on higher side, excluding soybean and arhar
Crop MSP Price Market Price(MP) % Change (MP/MSP)
Paddy, common 1,868 1,874 0.3
Jowar, hybrid 2,620 2,508 (4.3)
Bajra 2,150 1,431 (33.4)
Maize 1,850 1,478 (20.1)
Ragi 3,295 2,781 (15.6)
Arhar(Tur) 6,000 8,683 44.7
Groundnut in shell 5,275 5,795 9.9
Soyabean, yellow 3,880 4,896 26.2
Source: Agmarknet, Edelweiss Research
Farmers to gain from improved yield of kharif. Also, better MSP and higher
procurement by government are likely to help increase liquidity position of farmers.
As per government’s first Kharif crop estimate, overall foodgrain production is
expected to remain at 147mt (up 4% YoY).
Globally, prices have improved significantly. Prices of soybean have jumped 70%
YoY, while those of corn, cotton and wheat are up 38%, 35% and 27% YoY,
respectively. Such a spurt in crop prices is likely to result in higher cash flows for
farmers yielding strong agri-input demand globally, benefiting players such as UPL,
Bayer, Corteva, among others.
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Exhibit 8: Soybean prices surged 70% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research
Exhibit 11: Wheat prices increased 27% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research
ZZZ
Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research
Exhibit 9: Corn prices up 38% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research
Exhibit 12: Cotton increased 35% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Mar
20
Jun
20
Sep
20
Dec
20
Mar
21
(USd
/bu
)
SOYBEAN FUTURE
300
375
450
525
600
675
750
Mar
20
Jun
20
Sep
20
Dec
20
Mar
21
(USd
/bu
)
CORN FUTURE May17
300
375
450
525
600
675
750
Mar
20
Jun
20
Sep
20
Dec
20
Mar
21
(USd
/bu
)
CORN FUTURE May17
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar
20
Jun
20
Sep
20
Dec
20
Mar
21
(USd
/Lb
)
CTK1 Comdty
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FARM FACTS
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Channel Checks: growth remains sound
Our channel checks with distributors across India highlight robustness of agri inputs.
Farmers’ cash flow position has remained strong driven by uptick in purchases done
by government agencies along with record yields of kharif. Harvest season of rabi
has started and going by current scenario, a record rabi production is anticipated.
Dealer from Madhya Pradesh
Expects sowing for kharif to start on time from June.
Farmers shifting from using SSP to DAP given lack of campaigning done by
government.
Expects corn acreage to increase going forward. Cotton acreage could see
dilution.
Farmer cash flows: Govt. has been aiding farmers in procuring higher quantum
of foodgrains at MSP. Fasal Bima money is also being given to farmers having lost
their crops during kharif.
Urea consumption is lower during kharif. Major urea consumption takes place in
rabi in MP. Soybean-urea is not required much.
DAP: INR1,185 per bag (companies have been holding inventory). Expected rise
of prices to extent of INR150/bag. However, IFFCO has said in a press release of
not increasing DAP prices.
Zinc+ boron based SSP products are available now: Usage has increased slightly.
DAP-IFFCO, GSFC, Deepak fertiliser, CHAMBAL, DCM are private players while
IFFCO is a big supplier.
Expects maize sowing to pick up in kharif. BASF, Bayer having strong portfolio in
corn herbicide, Sales likely to increase. Bayer product ‘laudis’ and BASF (synger).
Dow (delicate use increase).
Corn-fall armyworm-big issue-Sygenta-product seed treatment (40 days no
attack)-Seed treatment for cotton.
Dhanuka-Largo(Dow-delicate-Insecticide-fall armyworm)-Sales will increase.
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Global commentary: Uptick in global agri-cycle
Commentaries by global innovators highlight robustness of the agrochemical
industry in challenging times of covid-19. Nearly all companies have posted good
double-digit growth (forex adjusted) in regions of Latam, particularly Brazil. Driven
by higher channel inventory along with weather-related challenges, demand across
North America and Europe remained soft. However, good water levels across
reservoirs in South East Asia aided by normal monsoon helped companies register.
Strong growth momentum by global innovators
Companies Key Highlights (Q4CY20)
Bayer AG
Sales at Crop Science advanced by 4.3% (Fx & portfolio adj.) during Q4CY20. Sales at Fungicides rose 5% YoY, with all
regions registering growth. In Latin America company’s product Fox Xpro™ reported an increase in volumes and prices.
Normalization of weather conditions and synergy effects arising from the Bayer Plus program helped company to deliver
better in North America. Herbicide segment reported a decline of 1% YoY (Fx Adj.) due in particular to a loss of
registrations in Europe / Middle East / Africa and North America.
FMC
The revenue decrease was driven by a 5 percent FX headwind and a 3 percent volume decrease, partially offset by a 4
percent increase in pricing. Strong volume growth in EMEA and Asia was more than offset by weakness in North America
and Latin America. Sales in EMEA increased 45 percent year over year, due to a particularly strong quarter for diamide
insecticides and cereal herbicides in addition to significant pre-ordering in the UK in advance of Brexit. In Asia, revenue
increased 11 percent year over year, driven by broad volume growth in India, China, Japan and Australia. In North America,
sales decreased 34 percent year over year. The majority of this decline was due to supply chain disruptions, including COVID-
related factors associated with logistics and a U.S.-based tolling partner. The remainder of the decrease was due to reduced
volume in lower-value pre-emergent herbicides.
Syngenta
Syngenta reported a 12% constant currency growth with a strong performance across all markets and segments,
particularly in Brazil. In North America, sales for the H1CY20 were up 4 percent at constant exchange rates. However,
sales were impacted by cold weather and excessive rain in Q2. In Latin America, positive momentum from 2019 continued
in the first half of 2020, with strong pest pressure in Brazil and higher volumes in Argentina despite difficult economic
conditions. In Asia Pacific, sales were up by 12 percent (CER), with strong growth in Australia due to improved weather
conditions, and continued momentum from 2019 in India. Sales in Europe, Africa and the Middle East were 5 percent
higher at constant exchange rates compared with 2019. Performance was solid, particularly in South Europe, despite
COVID19 and dry weather in North-West Europe
Source: Company, Edelweiss Research
Latam drives growth momentum for global players
(% YoY Growth) LATAM EUROPE ASIA/ROW North America
Global Players
Bayer 14 (1) 7 (5)
Syngenta 32 5 12 4
FMC 4 45 11 (34)
Corteva 21 (9) 17 31
Indian Players
UPL (8) 30 21 5
Sharda Cropchem 23 30 27 31
Source: Company, Edelweiss Research
*Growth figures for Bayer, Syngenta, FMC and Corteva excludes forex impact
* Syngenta to report H2CY20 results on 20th May, 2021
* UPL and Sharda Cropchem growth includes forex impact
Fertiliser segment: Spurt in raw material prices to impact margins
Fertiliser raw material prices have bounced back during Q3FY21. Jump in phos-acid
(up 35% YoY) and ammonia (up 10% YoY) prices is likely to impact margins of
fertiliser players. While we expect companies to pass on the spurt in prices to
farmers, we expect margins to remain under pressure if companies remain
competitive in gaining market share.
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Phos acid prices up 35% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research
Ammonia prices up 10% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research
Exhibit 16: DAP prices up sharp 84% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research
Potash Murate prices down 14% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research
Urea prices up 36% YoY
Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research
500
560
620
680
740
800
Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21
(USD
/Mt)
Phos acid
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mar
-19
Jun
-19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun
-20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
(USD
/Mt)
Ammonia
250
350
450
550
650
750
Mar
-19
Jun
-19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Mar
-20
Jun
-20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
(USD
/Mt)
DAP
200
220
240
260
280
300
Mar
-20
Jun
-20
Sep
-20
Dec
-20
Mar
-21
(USD
/Mt)
Potash Murate
150
205
260
315
370
425
480
Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21
(USD
/Mt)
Urea
Edelweiss Securities Limited
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Agriculture Sector News
Dhanuka Agritech: Staying confident on strong growth in agriculture sector in India
In a detailed interview, the management of Dhanuka Agritech sounded very bullish
on the prospects of the entire agricultural space in India and also was enthused by
the developments and decisions taken by the government to aid the growth of
smaller farmers to ensure a better crop price. Dhanuka Agritech Limited is a leading
agrochemical company with a presence in herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and
plant growth regulators /bio-stimulants market.
Dhanuka Agritech: Staying confident on strong growth in agriculture sector in India
Indian Govt. to tread cautiously in allowing nano-zinc and nano-copper crop
nutrients
The government has said that it will tread cautiously in accepting the industry’s
demand to allow nano-zinc and nano-copper in the absence of long-term data amid
global fear of allowing these as crop nutrients may lead to toxicity in the crops.The
commercial use of nano-urea was allowed in November last year that may help
improve crops yield by 18-35%.
Indian Govt to tread cautiously in allowing nano-zinc and nano-copper crop
nutrients
Govt. buys paddy worth Rs 1.26 lakh crore at MSP so far this kharif marketing
season
Procurement of Kharif paddy has increased nearly 15 per cent to 669.59 lakh tonnes
at MSP so far in the current Kharif marketing season, costing over Rs 1.26 lakh crore,
amid ongoing farmers protest against three new farm laws. Kharif Marketing Season
(KMS) starts in October. Paddy is a major Kharif (summer-sown) crop but it is also
grown in rabi (winter-sown) season.
Govt buys paddy worth Rs 1.26 lakh crore at MSP so far this kharif marketing
season
IFFCO announces “no hike” in DAP & NPK fertilizers rates
In a major move aimed at giving relief to the farmers, IFFCO announced that they
have decided not to increase the price of its DAP, NPK & NPS fertilizers, no matter
what the input cost be. Being a leader in the fertilizer price stabilization in the
country, the move is being heralded as yet another example of cooperative’s
commitment to farmers. The announcement was made on Tuesday.
IFFCO announces “no hike” in DAP & NPK fertilizers rates
UPL Announces Long-Term Collaboration With FMC Corporation for Rynaxypyr®
Active Ingredient. UPL Ltd. today announced a long-term strategic collaboration with
FMC Corporation, a leading global agricultural sciences company. The agreement
provides UPL access in key markets prior to patent expiration, to commercialize
Rynaxypyr" active, FMC's leading insecticide. As per the agreement, UPL will toll
manufacture and supply Rynaxypyr to FMC in India, and FMC will supply the active
ingredient to UPL depending on the markets.
UPL Announces Long-Term Collaboration With FMC Corporation for Rynaxypyr®
Active Ingredient
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Valuation of Agri-input players
EPS CAGR
Company Rating Target Multiple
FY21E
EPS
(FY19-21E)
(%) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E
Agri Inputs - Agrochemicals
PI Industries Hold 2,268 2,270 35x Jun23 EPS 4,729 342 50.6 30.5 68.7 44.8 36.4 38.2 31.7 25.8 18.6 23.8 23.6
Rallis India Hold 278 293 22x FY22 EPS 742 54 11.7 21.1 31.3 23.8 20.9 23.0 15.8 13.7 12.8 15.8 15.7
Dhanuka Agritech Buy 746 1,137 24x FY22 EPS 477 34 45.3 38.4 25.1 16.5 15.7 24.1 13.4 12.4 20.9 27.1 23.8
UPL Buy 615 655 8.5x Jun23 EBITDA 6,462 467 43.1 21.4 26.5 14.3 12.0 7.2 6.4 5.4 15.5 18.5 18.5
Sharda Cropchem Hold 331 337 14x FY22 EPS 411 30 24.4 11.7 18.1 13.6 13.7 8.4 5.1 4.6 12.3 14.8 13.0
Mean 24.6 34.0 22.6 19.8 20.2 14.5 12.4 16.0 20.0 18.9
Median 21.4 26.5 16.5 15.7 23.0 13.4 12.4 15.5 18.5 18.5
Agri Inputs - Fertilisers
Coromandel International Buy 786 1,004 19x FY22 EPS 3,167 229 48.9 40.9 21.6 16.1 14.9 14.5 10.2 9.2 27.7 29.0 24.7
CMP
(INR)
Mcap
(INR bn)
Target
Price
Mcap
(USD mn)
RoE (%)EV/EBITDAP/E
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Research analyst or his/her relative has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of research report: No
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Analyst Certification:
The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
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Disclaimer for U.S. Persons
This research report is a product of Edelweiss Securities Limited, which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker-dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
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This research report is a product of Edelweiss Securities Limited ("ESL"), which is the employer of the research analysts who have prepared the research report. The research analysts preparing the research report are resident outside the Canada and are not associated persons of any Canadian registered adviser and/or dealer and, therefore, the analysts are not subject to supervision by a Canadian registered adviser and/or dealer, and are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of the Ontario Securities Commission, other Canadian provincial securities regulators, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and are not required to otherwise comply with Canadian rules or regulations regarding, among other things, the research analysts' business or relationship with a subject company or trading of securities by a research analyst.
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Disclaimer for Hong Kong persons
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Edelweiss Securities (Hong Kong) Private Limited (ESHK), a licensed corporation (BOM -874) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to Section 116(1) of the Securities and Futures Ordinance “SFO”. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The report also does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of any individual recipients. The Indian Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong and is/are not licensed to carry on regulated activities in Hong Kong and does not / do not hold themselves out as being able to do so. Copyright 2009 Edelweiss Research (Edelweiss Securities Ltd). All rights reserved.
Aditya Narain
Head of Research