PresentationPresentationMay 28, 2008May 28, 2008PresentationPresentationMay 28, 2008May 28, 2008
Key figures of the first half 2007-2008Key figures of the first half 2007-2008ending at March 31, 2008ending at March 31, 2008
(October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008)(October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008)
Key figures of the first half 2007-2008Key figures of the first half 2007-2008ending at March 31, 2008ending at March 31, 2008
(October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008)(October 1, 2007 – March 31, 2008)
Sales from Reported to Like-for-Like Sales from Reported to Like-for-Like Sales from Reported to Like-for-Like Sales from Reported to Like-for-Like
1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)
% Change
SALES (reported)
Currency Translation Impact
Changes in Consolidation Scope (Korea Ratings)
SALES(like-for-like)
365.7 297.9 -18.5%
365.7 305.7 -16.3%
26.2
(in € millions) 1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)
-18.4
Sales by CompanySales by Company(reported)(reported)
Sales by CompanySales by Company(reported)(reported)
SALES(reported)
365.7 297.9 -18.5%
313.3 227.7FITCH GROUP
Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings)Korea RatingsFitch Ratings
Intercompany Eliminations
27.3%18.4
313.3 246.1 21.4%
- 1.7 - 1.7
(*) Split of Korea Ratings Sales Ratings: 8.0 M€ Other: 10.4 M€
Algorithmics 54.1 53.5 1.1%
(*)
-
-
-
(in € millions) 1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)
% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)
Sales by CompanySales by Company(like-for-like)(like-for-like)
Sales by CompanySales by Company(like-for-like)(like-for-like)
SALES(like-for-like)
365.7 305.7 - 16.3%
313.3 249.2
FITCH GROUP
Fitch Ratings
Algorithmics
Intercompany Eliminations
- 20.5%
54.1 58.4 + 7.9%
- 1.7 - 1.9
1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)
% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)
(in € millions)
% %
1 USA 178.5 48.8 % 113.0 37.9 %
2 UK 53.2 14.5 % 36.8 12.4 %
3 South Korea 1.1 0.3 % 18.9 6.3 %
4 Germany 13.8 3.8 % 14.2 4.8 %
5 Netherlands 10.4 2.8 % 10.1 3.4 %
6 Spain 8.3 2.3 % 8.0 2.7 %
7 Italy 8.6 2.4 % 8.0 2.7 %
8 France 8.1 2.2 % 7.8 2.6 %
9 Switzerland 6.7 1.8 % 6.6 2.2 %
10 Ireland 6.7 1.8 % 5.9 2.0 %
80.7 % 77.0 %
Sales by Geographic RegionsSales by Geographic Regions(reported)(reported)
Sales by Geographic RegionsSales by Geographic Regions(reported)(reported)
Total Sales % (reported)Total Sales % (reported)
1H 2006/20071H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)
1H 2006/20071H 2006/2007(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)
From SalesFrom Salesto Recurring Operating Incometo Recurring Operating Income
From SalesFrom Salesto Recurring Operating Incometo Recurring Operating Income
RECURRING OPERATINGINCOME (like-for-like) 78.2 69.9 - 10.6%
- 287.5 - 232.2
Sales (reported)
78.2 65.7 - 16.0%
7.5
- 3.3
365.7 297.9 - 18.5%
Operating Expenses
Recurring Operating Income (reported)
Currency Translation Impact
Changes in Consolidation Scope (Korea Ratings)
1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)
% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)
(in € millions)
Recurring Operating Income by CompanyRecurring Operating Income by Company(reported)(reported)
Recurring Operating Income by CompanyRecurring Operating Income by Company(reported)(reported)
RECURRING OPERATINGINCOME (reported) 78.2 65.7 - 16.0%
101.0 75.9
FITCH GROUP- 24.9%
3.3101.0 79.2 - 21.6%
- 6.1 - 5.2
84.3 70.9 - 15.9%Fitch Ratings (excl. Korea Ratings)
Other (Parent Company & Holdings)
Korea RatingsFitch Ratings
- 16.7 - 8.3 + 50.3%Algorithmics
1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)
% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)
(in € millions)
Recurring Operating Income by CompanyRecurring Operating Income by Company(like-for-like)(like-for-like)
Recurring Operating Income by CompanyRecurring Operating Income by Company(like-for-like)(like-for-like)
RECURRING OPERATINGINCOME (like-for-like) 78.2 69.9 - 10.6%
101.0 82.5
FITCH GROUP- 18.3%
- 16.7 - 7.4 + 55.7%
- 6.1 - 5.2
84.3 75.1 - 10.9%
Fitch Ratings
Other (Parent Company & Holdings)
Algorithmics
Operating Margin Rate (ROI / Sales)Operating Margin Rate (ROI / Sales)32.2%32.2%
23.1%23.1%21.4%21.4%
33.1%33.1%
24.6%24.6%22.9%22.9%
Fitch Ratings LevelFitch Ratings Level
Fitch Group LevelFitch Group LevelFimalac Consolidation Level Fimalac Consolidation Level
1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)
% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)
(in € millions)
From Recurring Operating IncomeFrom Recurring Operating Incometo Operating Result to Operating Result (reported)(reported)
From Recurring Operating IncomeFrom Recurring Operating Incometo Operating Result to Operating Result (reported)(reported)
OPERATING RESULT (reported)
104.6 78.9 - 24.6%
Recurring Operating Income(reported)
26.4 13.2
78.2 65.7 - 16.0%
Other Operating Income & Expense
1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)
% Change1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)
(in € millions)
NET EARNINGSGroup Share (reported)
53.9 30.9
Operating Result (reported)
4.5
104.6 78.9
Net Interest Expense, Other Financial
Income / (Expense)
- 47.0Taxes
0.3Equity in Net Earnings of Affiliated Companies
- 8.5Minority Interests
- 12.5
- 26.5
0.3
- 9.3
1H 2006/2007(Oct. 06 – Mar. 07)
1H 2007/2008(Oct. 07 – Mar. 08)
(in € millions)
From Operating ResultFrom Operating Resultto Net Earnings to Net Earnings (reported)(reported)
From Operating ResultFrom Operating Resultto Net Earnings to Net Earnings (reported)(reported)
Evolution of Fimalac’s ShareholdingEvolution of Fimalac’s ShareholdingEvolution of Fimalac’s ShareholdingEvolution of Fimalac’s Shareholding
including Reserved Treasury Stocks(stock options)
Majority Shareholder
Treasury Stocks
Others
09/30/2007
100.0%
1.1%
66.3%
6.9%
26.8%
03/31/2008
100.0%
1.1%
67.7%
9.9%
22.4%
Cash and Cash Equivalents / (Net Debt)Cash and Cash Equivalents / (Net Debt)by Companyby Company
Cash and Cash Equivalents / (Net Debt)Cash and Cash Equivalents / (Net Debt)by Companyby Company
Fitch Group
Parent Company & Holdings
Net Cash Position (excl. Building)
- 160
+ 243
+ 83
North Colonnade (London Building) - 225
- 196
+ 187
- 9
- 182
09/30/2007 03/31/2008(in € millions)
Fimalac Share Performance vs. CAC40 and SBF120Fimalac Share Performance vs. CAC40 and SBF120December 1992 to May 15, 2008December 1992 to May 15, 2008
Fimalac Share Performance vs. CAC40 and SBF120Fimalac Share Performance vs. CAC40 and SBF120December 1992 to May 15, 2008December 1992 to May 15, 2008
CAC 40CAC 40272272
FIMALACFIMALAC872872
SBF 120SBF 120375375
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
Dec-92
Dec-92
Dec-93
Dec-93
Dec-94
Dec-94
Dec-95
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-07
05/31/08
05/31/08
Group HistoryGroup History Group HistoryGroup History
Group StructureGroup StructureGroup StructureGroup Structure
80% 20%
Note: Derivative Fitch subsidiary folded back into Fitch Ratings in January 2008
Fitch Group Fitch Group Revenue TrendRevenue Trend
Fitch Group Fitch Group Revenue TrendRevenue Trend
In $ MilIn $ Mil
$24 $43
$156 $169$222
$305$356
$455$511
$693
$774
$989
$474$439
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Note: Korea Ratings included beginning in 1H 2007 / 2008
In $ Mil
Fitch Group Fitch Group Operating Income TrendOperating Income Trend
Fitch Group Fitch Group Operating Income TrendOperating Income Trend
$5 $10$29 $32 $37
$72$83
$113 $110
$150$160
$211
$109 $105
0
50
100
150
200
250
Fitch Group Fitch Group Sales to Operating IncomeSales to Operating Income
Fitch Group Fitch Group Sales to Operating IncomeSales to Operating Income
in US$ millions 1H 06/07 1H 07/08 % Change
RevenueRevenue 473.6473.6 438.9438.9 -7.3%-7.3%
Personnel costsPersonnel costs 231.6231.6 226.2226.2 - 2.3%- 2.3%
External expensesExternal expenses 75.175.1 75.575.5 + 0.1%+ 0.1%
Total chargesTotal charges 306.7306.7 301.7301.7 - 1.6%- 1.6%
EBITDAEBITDA 166.9166.9 137.2137.2 -17.8%-17.8%Profit sharing planProfit sharing plan 37.937.9 9.19.1
DepreciationDepreciation 8.58.5 9.99.9
Intangible assets amortizationIntangible assets amortization 11.411.4 13.713.7
Operating IncomeOperating Income 109.1109.1 104.5104.5 - 4.2%- 4.2%
1H 07/08 Financial Highlights1H 07/08 Financial Highlights1H 07/08 Financial Highlights1H 07/08 Financial Highlights
(US$ millions)(US$ millions) RevenueRevenue EBITDAEBITDA Op IncomeOp Income
1H 1H 06/0706/07
1H 1H 07/0807/08
1H 1H 06/0706/07
1H 1H 07/0807/08
1H 1H 06/0706/07
1H 1H 07/0807/08
FITCH GROUPFITCH GROUP 473.6473.6 438.9438.9 - 7.3%- 7.3% 166.9166.9 137.2137.2 -17.8%-17.8% 109.1109.1 104.5104.5 - 4.2%- 4.2%
Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings 405.7405.7 335.5335.5 -17.3%-17.3% 175.1175.1 128.4128.4 -26.7%-26.7% 130.8130.8 111.9111.9 -14.4%-14.4%
Korea Korea RatingsRatings
27.127.1 6.76.7 4.94.9
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmics 70.170.1 78.878.8 +12.4%+12.4% -8.2-8.2 2.12.1 -21.7-21.7 -12.3-12.3
EliminationsEliminations - 2.2- 2.2 - 2.5- 2.5
Market OverviewMarket OverviewMarket OverviewMarket Overview
The credit markets began to turn in mid-2007 as the impact of broader The credit markets began to turn in mid-2007 as the impact of broader market factors became clearermarket factors became clearer
Significantly increased leverage
Reduced risk premia
Mismatch of long- and short-dated funding
Aggressive underwriting / fraud
Evidence of underlying asset performance far worse than expected led to Evidence of underlying asset performance far worse than expected led to downgrades- primarily affecting US sub-prime RMBS and CDOs of ABSdowngrades- primarily affecting US sub-prime RMBS and CDOs of ABS
The overall impact has been far-reachingThe overall impact has been far-reaching
Bank asset write-downs / reported losses
Increased volatility and widening spreads across asset classes
Decreased investor demand for riskier, more complex assets
Reduced bond issuance
Contagion effects – e.g., auction rate securities, financial guarantors, SIVs, etc.
Tightened lending standards
Structured Finance Ratings ActivityStructured Finance Ratings ActivityStructured Finance Ratings ActivityStructured Finance Ratings Activity
The pace and magnitude of deterioration in the US sub-prime market greatly The pace and magnitude of deterioration in the US sub-prime market greatly exceeded expectations and led toexceeded expectations and led to
Criteria reviews
Portfolio reviews
Rating actions (e.g. US RMBS, CDOs of ABS)
20072007
However, many asset classes However, many asset classes continue to perform within stress continue to perform within stress parameters (e.g. ABS and CMBS)parameters (e.g. ABS and CMBS)
Consequently, Fitch’s ratings Consequently, Fitch’s ratings actions reflect a significantly higher actions reflect a significantly higher number of downgrades than number of downgrades than upgrades in 2007upgrades in 2007
Corporate Finance Ratings ActivityCorporate Finance Ratings ActivityCorporate Finance Ratings ActivityCorporate Finance Ratings Activity
Corporate credit quality remained resilient- relative to structured finance- as Corporate credit quality remained resilient- relative to structured finance- as upgrades marginally exceeded downgrades in 2007upgrades marginally exceeded downgrades in 2007
In calendar 2H07, corporate credit quality began to show strain linked to the declining housing market, leading to an increased number of downgrades
Financial institutions, particularly in North American and Europe, experienced meaningful credit deterioration toward the end of 2007 and into 2008
20072007
Global Debt IssuanceGlobal Debt IssuanceGlobal Debt IssuanceGlobal Debt Issuance
Source: Thomson ReutersSource: Thomson Reuters
In fiscal 1H 07/08, global bond issuance volume tumbledIn fiscal 1H 07/08, global bond issuance volume tumbledGlobal deal volume of $1.2 trillion in calendar 1Q08 was 45% less than 1Q07
Asset classes most relevant to Fitch have experienced significant decreases in Asset classes most relevant to Fitch have experienced significant decreases in issuanceissuance
1H 07/081H 07/08
Global Debt Capital Markets by Asset ClassGlobal Debt Capital Markets by Asset Class1H 06/071H 06/07
Structured FinanceStructured FinanceStructured FinanceStructured Finance
Global structured finance issuance volume totaled $99B in calendar 1Q08, the Global structured finance issuance volume totaled $99B in calendar 1Q08, the lowest quarterly volume since 3Q96lowest quarterly volume since 3Q96
Issuance volume in calendar 1Q08 represents an 87% drop from issuance in 1Q07
Calendar 1Q08 is the third consecutive quarter-over-quarter decline in issuance volume
Source: Dealogic; Bank of England
Global Structured Finance Global Structured Finance (a)(a)
(a) Quarterly issuance. ‘Other’ includes auto, credit card and student loan ABS.(b)Commercial mortgage-backed securities(c) Residential mortgage-backed securities
Structured FinanceStructured FinanceStructured FinanceStructured Finance
The US structured finance market saw its lowest quarterly volume in more The US structured finance market saw its lowest quarterly volume in more than a decadethan a decade
Total US residential real estate securitizations declined 97% in calendar 1Q08 compared to the same period in 2007
US CDO issuance declined 91% in calendar 1Q08 versus the same period last year
US CMBS issuance in calendar 1Q08 was down 89% versus 1Q07
Issuance volumes in the European structured finance market were also Issuance volumes in the European structured finance market were also impacted, as evidenced by calendar 1Q08 issuance versus 1Q07impacted, as evidenced by calendar 1Q08 issuance versus 1Q07
ABS down 18%
RMBS down 51%
CDO down 58%
CMBS down 93%
Sources: Thomson Reuters, JPMorgan, ABAlert
Corporate Finance Corporate Finance Investment GradeInvestment Grade
Corporate Finance Corporate Finance Investment GradeInvestment Grade
The investment grade market has been less affected and remains attractive The investment grade market has been less affected and remains attractive for borrowers as investors pursue a “flight to quality”for borrowers as investors pursue a “flight to quality”
US investment grade bond issuance rose 11% in calendar 1Q08 versus the US investment grade bond issuance rose 11% in calendar 1Q08 versus the prior quarter but declined 13% from the prior yearprior quarter but declined 13% from the prior year
Issuance in April hit a record as companies took advantage of the improving market sentiment and strong investor demand
Investment grade bond issuance in EMEA decreased in 9% in calendar Investment grade bond issuance in EMEA decreased in 9% in calendar 1Q08 as compared with 4Q071Q08 as compared with 4Q07
Source: Dealogic, Goldman Sachs, Fitch Ratings
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08
$ B
illio
ns
Global Investment Grade Bond IssuanceGlobal Investment Grade Bond Issuance
Corporate FinanceCorporate FinanceHigh Yield and Leverage LoansHigh Yield and Leverage Loans
Corporate FinanceCorporate FinanceHigh Yield and Leverage LoansHigh Yield and Leverage Loans
Source: Fitch Ratings
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q 07 1Q 08
$ B
illio
ns
Total Leveraged Loans HY Bonds
However, US and European high yield bond and leveraged loan markets However, US and European high yield bond and leveraged loan markets have been impacted more significantlyhave been impacted more significantly
In calendar 1Q08, Europe saw no high yield bond issuance while US high yield bond issuance was down 72% versus 1Q07
US and European leveraged loan issuance volume declined 74% and 88%, respectively, in calendar 1Q08 as compared with the same period last year
US High Yield and Loan Volumes ($B)US High Yield and Loan Volumes ($B)
Sources: Fitch Ratings, European High Yield Association
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q 07 1Q 08€
Bill
ions
Total Leveraged Loans HY Bonds
European High Yield and Loan Volumes (European High Yield and Loan Volumes (€B)€B)
Source: European High Yield Association
Regulatory EnvironmentRegulatory EnvironmentRegulatory EnvironmentRegulatory Environment
As current market conditions evolve, regulatory bodies have been assessing As current market conditions evolve, regulatory bodies have been assessing the roles and policies of the rating agencies and proposing recommendations the roles and policies of the rating agencies and proposing recommendations for change for change
IOSCO
SEC
Committee on European Securities Regulators
Financial Stability Forum (central bankers, regulators and finance ministers)
US President’s Working Group on Financial Markets
US Congress
Final reports from key regulators are anticipated soonFinal reports from key regulators are anticipated soon
Fitch has committed to a series of specific measures to enhance the Fitch has committed to a series of specific measures to enhance the independence, transparency and quality of the credit rating process and the independence, transparency and quality of the credit rating process and the credit rating industrycredit rating industry
Developed and committed to jointly with the other credit rating agencies
These efforts are in addition to Fitch’s own analytical and organizational initiatives
Credit InitiativesCredit InitiativesCredit InitiativesCredit Initiatives
Fitch’s primary focus is on credit analytics and delivering the most appropriate Fitch’s primary focus is on credit analytics and delivering the most appropriate ratings to the market in the timeliest manner ratings to the market in the timeliest manner
Rating reviews, updating methodologies / models, publishing research, etc
Key analytical developments include:Key analytical developments include:
Real time engagement with the market Evaluating potential complementary rating scales for structured finance Assessing the merits of “harmonizing” corporate and public finance rating scales
Analytical initiatives Revised criteria and model for CDOs exposed to corporate debt Completed full review of US RMBS ratings criteria; revised ResiLogic model Initiated deterministic stress analysis of the global structured finance portfolio Updated criteria for rating Market Value Structures Focus on IFS ratings for financial guarantors Established a “Complex Bank Group”
Organizational InitiativesOrganizational InitiativesOrganizational InitiativesOrganizational Initiatives
Recent organizational changes include:Recent organizational changes include:
Launched Fitch Solutions in January 2008 to reinforce the independence of the rating agency and create a more focused grouping of credit products and services
Several senior management changes
Implementation of Chief Credit Officer and Risk Officer roles in both Corporates / Financial Institutions and Structured Finance
To bring enhanced analytical oversight, experience and training to the analytical groups
Fitch Solutions OverviewFitch Solutions OverviewFitch Solutions OverviewFitch Solutions Overview
A new division that consolidates all non-rating products and services, product A new division that consolidates all non-rating products and services, product development, credit training, and the firm's product sales forcedevelopment, credit training, and the firm's product sales force
Reinforces and further separates Fitch’s analytical activities from commercial activities
Current Fitch Ratings content forms the core of initial offerings – e.g., research, Current Fitch Ratings content forms the core of initial offerings – e.g., research, ratings dataratings data
Over 1,100 subscribing firms and 8,500 users
Subscription-based revenue streams Predictable, recurring revenue base with historically strong renewal rates Not directly tied to issuance
Scalable, growth oriented business model
Incorporates recently launched / acquired products such as Fitch CDS Pricing, Incorporates recently launched / acquired products such as Fitch CDS Pricing, Market Implied Ratings and RAP CDMarket Implied Ratings and RAP CD
Specialized products to meet increased market demand for data and tools used in the assessment of credit and market risk
Fitch Solutions Recent Fitch Solutions Recent DevelopmentsDevelopments
Fitch Solutions Recent Fitch Solutions Recent DevelopmentsDevelopments
Acquisition of equity stake in Portsmouth Financial Systems in May 2008Acquisition of equity stake in Portsmouth Financial Systems in May 2008
Next generation provider of structured finance analytics (e.g. cash flow models, underlying assets, etc.)
Reaffirms Fitch’s commitment to provide solutions that meet evolving investor needs and to increase transparency in structured finance markets
Launch of Fitch ABCDS Pricing in March 2008Launch of Fitch ABCDS Pricing in March 2008
Consensus pricing for asset-backed credit default swaps (ABCDS) with a benchmark service to provide a derived price for illiquid assets
Complements existing single name CDS and Loan CDS services and reflects expansion of Fitch’s efforts in the pricing and valuation services business
Introduction of Covered Bonds SMART in March 2008Introduction of Covered Bonds SMART in March 2008
New surveillance and research service for the covered bonds market
First rating agency to have developed this type of service for this sector
Asia Pacific Growth PlatformsAsia Pacific Growth PlatformsAsia Pacific Growth PlatformsAsia Pacific Growth Platforms
Fitch maintains 15 offices in 11 countries Fitch maintains 15 offices in 11 countries throughout the Asia Pacific regionthroughout the Asia Pacific region
Asian capital markets are growing and Asian capital markets are growing and dynamic; Fitch is continually evaluating dynamic; Fitch is continually evaluating investment and acquisition opportunitiesinvestment and acquisition opportunities
Strategic investments over the past year Strategic investments over the past year include:include:
Acquisition of 54% stake in Korea Ratings, the leading Korean credit rating agency
Acquisition of 49% stake in China Lianhe Credit Rating, one of China’s largest domestic market rating agencies
Investments in Fitch’s Indian operations to capitalize on growing domestic market
$24$27
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$ m
illi
ons
1H 06/07 1H 07/08
Korea Ratings Revenue
Note: Equity stake in Korea Ratings effective April Note: Equity stake in Korea Ratings effective April 2007. 1H06/07 Korea Ratings revenue is 2007. 1H06/07 Korea Ratings revenue is represented on a pro-forma basis as if Fitch Ratings represented on a pro-forma basis as if Fitch Ratings held a majority stake during this period.held a majority stake during this period.
Revenue by SegmentRevenue by SegmentRevenue by SegmentRevenue by Segment
((US$ millions)US$ millions) RevenueRevenue
1H 06/071H 06/07 1H 07/081H 07/08 % change% change
FITCH RATINGSFITCH RATINGS 405.7405.7 335.5335.5 - 17.3%- 17.3%
Structured FinanceStructured Finance 213.1213.1 128.5128.5 - 39.7%- 39.7%
Corporate FinanceCorporate Finance 149.4149.4 155.0155.0 + 3.7%+ 3.7%
Subscriptions / TrainingSubscriptions / Training 43.243.2 52.052.0 + 20.4%+ 20.4%
KOREA RATINGSKOREA RATINGS N/AN/A 27.127.1
Note: The 1H06/07 segment split reflects minor changes from previously released figures for the reclassification of Note: The 1H06/07 segment split reflects minor changes from previously released figures for the reclassification of Global Infrastructure ratings revenue.Global Infrastructure ratings revenue.““Subscriptions / Training” reflects business managed as “Fitch Solutions”Subscriptions / Training” reflects business managed as “Fitch Solutions”
Revenue by RegionRevenue by RegionRevenue by RegionRevenue by Region
((US$ millions)US$ millions) RevenueRevenue
1H 06/071H 06/07 1H 07/081H 07/08 % change% change
FITCH RATINGSFITCH RATINGS 405.7405.7 335.5335.5 - 17.3%- 17.3%
North AmericaNorth America 218.5218.5 152.6152.6 - 30.2%- 30.2%
EMEAEMEA 150.4150.4 145.6145.6 + 3.2%+ 3.2%
Latin AmericaLatin America 18.118.1 20.320.3 + 12.2%+ 12.2%
Asia PacificAsia Pacific 18.718.7 17.017.0 - 9.1%- 9.1%
KOREA RATINGSKOREA RATINGS N/AN/A 27.127.1
Note: The 1H06/07 regional split reflects minor changes in regional reporting from previously reported figures.Note: The 1H06/07 regional split reflects minor changes in regional reporting from previously reported figures.
Fitch Ratings Fitch Ratings EBITDA and Operating Income EBITDA and Operating Income
Fitch Ratings Fitch Ratings EBITDA and Operating Income EBITDA and Operating Income
Note: Financials exclude Korea RatingsNote: Financials exclude Korea Ratings
(in US$ millions) 1H 06 / 07 1H 07 / 08 % Change
Revenue Revenue 405.7405.7 335.5335.5 -17.3%-17.3%
EBITDA EBITDA 175.1175.1 128.4128.4 -26.7%-26.7%
EBITDA MarginEBITDA Margin 43.2%43.2% 38.3%38.3%
Profit sharing planProfit sharing plan 37.737.7 9.09.0
Depreciation & AmortizationDepreciation & Amortization6.66.6 7.57.5
Operating Income Operating Income 130.8130.8 111.9111.9 -14.4%-14.4%
Operating Income MarginOperating Income Margin 32.2%32.2% 33.4%33.4%
Expense ManagementExpense ManagementExpense ManagementExpense Management
Fitch has been cautiously managing all costs, specifically compensation Fitch has been cautiously managing all costs, specifically compensation expenses, by reducingexpenses, by reducing
Variable compensation expenses, bonus accruals, and incentive compensation charges
Headcount In January 2008, Fitch announced a reduction in headcount of 150, or roughly 7%, by
September 2008 In April 2008, Fitch revised staff reduction estimates to 180 – 200, or 8% – 10% of
total employees by fiscal year end
Careful expense management, balanced with focused investments in areas of Careful expense management, balanced with focused investments in areas of continued growth, will provide Fitch with a stable platform to move forwardcontinued growth, will provide Fitch with a stable platform to move forward
Current Market DynamicsCurrent Market DynamicsCurrent Market DynamicsCurrent Market Dynamics
Some positive developments…Some positive developments…BlackRock’s purchase of a $15 billion portfolio of sub-prime mortgage debt and other similar deals
Banks reducing unsold bond and leveraged loan commitments (from $300B last summer to about $100B recently)
Bond issuance by banks of $303 billion globally in April, the third-highest month of all time
US high yield debt issuance of over $4 billion in April, the highest monthly volume since November 2007
Spreads tightening in April and May, but still much wider than same period last year
… … but continued challenges remainbut continued challenges remainFundamentals in housing markets remain weak
Further ratings downgrades possible
Concerns over broader economic slowdown
Many structured finance markets remain inactive
Financial institutions continue to write down assets
Sources: Dealogic, Thomson Reuters, The Wall Street JournalSources: Dealogic, Thomson Reuters, The Wall Street Journal
Key Challenges for 2008Key Challenges for 2008Key Challenges for 2008Key Challenges for 2008
Balancing the short term business impact against longer term challenges Balancing the short term business impact against longer term challenges and opportunitiesand opportunities
Dichotomy between Structured and Corporates, US and the rest of the world
Ever increasing demand for quality due to the complexity of the capital markets and market volatility
Longer term opportunity to distinguish ourselves
Reputational and regulatory challenges to the industryReputational and regulatory challenges to the industryMarket confidence in rating agencies has been shakenNumerous regulatory bodies are interested in “fixing” the credit problems
Reacting without overreactingReacting without overreactingOrganizational changesIntroducing new products to fill market voidsAcquisitions to complement the business
ConclusionConclusionConclusionConclusion
The entire organization has rallied around the urgency of the credit The entire organization has rallied around the urgency of the credit challenges, aiming to be timely and transparent with our research and challenges, aiming to be timely and transparent with our research and ratingsratings
We expect that corporate ratings will continue on a growth trendWe expect that corporate ratings will continue on a growth trend
We are less sure about the timing and extent of structured markets We are less sure about the timing and extent of structured markets recoveryrecovery
Fitch Ratings revenues for the fiscal year ending September 2008 could Fitch Ratings revenues for the fiscal year ending September 2008 could decrease by roughly 20% on a like-for-like basis as compared to fiscal decrease by roughly 20% on a like-for-like basis as compared to fiscal 20072007
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsHighlightsHighlights
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsHighlightsHighlights
Notes: 1 1 Top 100 banks according to “The Banker”
5454 New License OrdersNew License Orders♦ Strong add-on sales and new businessStrong add-on sales and new business
383 Software Solution clients383 Software Solution clients♦ Continuing expansion into existing accountsContinuing expansion into existing accounts
162 Content and Data clients 162 Content and Data clients ♦ Growth in subscription revenueGrowth in subscription revenue
Over 70Over 7011 of the world’s 100 largest financial institutionsof the world’s 100 largest financial institutions♦ Provides annuity streamProvides annuity stream
756 professionals in 19 global offices756 professionals in 19 global offices♦ Strengthening sales and delivery capabilitiesStrengthening sales and delivery capabilities
Credit and Capital Solutions
126 clients
Market Risk Solutions
154 clients
Operational Risk Solutions
102 clients
Collateral Management Solutions
70 clients
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsSolution Achievements Solution Achievements
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsSolution Achievements Solution Achievements
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsRevenue by RegionRevenue by Region
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsRevenue by RegionRevenue by Region
(in millions of US$)2006/2007
(Oct 06 – Mar 07)
2007/2008(Oct 07 - Mar 08)
% Change
North AmericaNorth America 18.7 20.1 + 7.5%
Europe, Middle East & AfricaEurope, Middle East & Africa 36.2 47.2 + 30.4%
Latin AmericaLatin America 3.0 3.4 +13.3%
Asia PacificAsia Pacific 12.2 8.1 - 33.6%
TOTAL ALGORITHMICSTOTAL ALGORITHMICS 70.1*70.1* 78.8*78.8* + 12.4%+ 12.4%
* Includes inter-company revenue of $2.2 and $2.5M million for the period March 07 and March 08 respectively.* Includes inter-company revenue of $2.2 and $2.5M million for the period March 07 and March 08 respectively.
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsEBITDA and Operating Income EBITDA and Operating Income
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsEBITDA and Operating Income EBITDA and Operating Income
*Includes inter-company revenue of $2.2M and $2.5M for the period March 07 and March 08 respectively. *Includes inter-company revenue of $2.2M and $2.5M for the period March 07 and March 08 respectively.
(in (in millions of US$)millions of US$) 2006/20072006/2007(Oct 06 – Mar 07)(Oct 06 – Mar 07)
2007/20082007/2008(Oct 07 - Mar 08)(Oct 07 - Mar 08)
% Change% Change
RevenueRevenue 70.170.1(*)(*) 78.878.8(*)(*) + 12.4%+ 12.4%
EBITDAEBITDA - 8.2- 8.2 + 2.1+ 2.1
Profit sharing planProfit sharing plan 0.20.2 0.10.1
DepreciationDepreciation 1.91.9 2.92.9
Intangible assets amortizationIntangible assets amortization 11.411.4 11.411.4
Recurring Operating IncomeRecurring Operating Income - 21.7- 21.7 - 12.3- 12.3
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsMarket Drivers Market Drivers
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsMarket Drivers Market Drivers
Current market turmoil reinforces the importance of ubiquitous and effective risk management
Increasingly, financial institutions adopt ‘risk-aware’ business applications to enable informed growth
Sound risk management is becoming a critical requirement in ‘related’ market verticals and emerging markets
Growing complexity and cost pressures reinforce ‘buy’ over ‘build’ decisions
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsInvestment FocusInvestment Focus
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsInvestment FocusInvestment Focus
Establishing presence in new geographical marketsEstablishing presence in new geographical marketsJanuary 15, 2008 – “IBM and Algorithmics to build first advanced risk management system for a Securities House in China – Guotai Juan Securities “
December 11, 2007 – “RenaissanceRe Holdings, one of the world’s largest reinsurers of natural and man-made catastrophes selected Algo Risk Service to advance its risk culture.”
Life and Pensions 2008– “ING developed a replication approach using technology provided by Algorithmics for back-end analysis, and a very unique replication portfolio technology, which was implemented globally for 96% of ING’s business in 2007
April 9, 2008 – “Nedbank, working in partnership with Algorithmics has implemented a comprehensive, integrated market and credit risk management infrastructure to support informed risk decision making. Nedbank uses a suite of products, including Algo Credit Regulatory Capital, Algo Credit Administrator and Algo Credit Limits.”
March 5, 2008– “Alliance Bank Malaysia Berhad, Malaysia’s premier integrated financial services group has selected and implemented the Algo OpVar Standard Edition solution for operational risk. “
Investing in managed service solutions for asset managers and hedge Investing in managed service solutions for asset managers and hedge fundsfunds
Continued focus on core solutions Continued focus on core solutions
Developing broader risk solution for the insurance industry Developing broader risk solution for the insurance industry
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsRecognized LeadershipRecognized Leadership
AlgorithmicsAlgorithmicsRecognized LeadershipRecognized Leadership
2007 -- Risk Rankings: 5 First Place Finishes2007 -- Risk Rankings: 5 First Place Finishes““Algorithmics held its dominant position in market, credit, operational risk, collateral Algorithmics held its dominant position in market, credit, operational risk, collateral management and Basel II”.management and Basel II”.
2008 -- Operational Risk and Compliance: Close Second2008 -- Operational Risk and Compliance: Close SecondRanked a very close second overall with top rankings in Scenario analysis and Regulatory Ranked a very close second overall with top rankings in Scenario analysis and Regulatory and Economic Capital and Economic Capital
2008 -- Celent Evaluation: Ranked as Leader 2008 -- Celent Evaluation: Ranked as Leader Ranked as a leader in Celent’s Evaluation of Financial and Credit Risk Solution Vendors Ranked as a leader in Celent’s Evaluation of Financial and Credit Risk Solution Vendors in advanced features and technology amongst 10 competitorsin advanced features and technology amongst 10 competitors
2008 -- Life and Pensions: Adapted technology for new use2008 -- Life and Pensions: Adapted technology for new use““By enhancing its optimisation technology, and combining this with its scenario-based By enhancing its optimisation technology, and combining this with its scenario-based market risk capabilities, Algorithmics has caught the traditional vendors of actuarial market risk capabilities, Algorithmics has caught the traditional vendors of actuarial software on the hop.”software on the hop.”