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• Population: – Population of an area is the total number of all individuals alive
in a
particular
point
in
time.
(Thomas
Frejka,
1973)
• Birth Rate is the total number of births per 1000 of a
population each year.
• Mortality Rate is the total Number of deaths per 1000
individual per year.
• Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children
that would be born to a woman over her lifetime.
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of Pakistan (NGO)
in
early
1950s.
• The National Health Policy (1990, 1997, 2001)
• Population Policy
2002
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Population Growth =
Birthda
rate +
Immi ration
– Mortalit
+
Emi ration
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Comparison of Population Comparison of Population
Growth
Trends
WorldwideGrowth
Trends
Worldwide
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– Japan is the 1st South East Asian Country to
x u v v w w
replacement level fertility by 1960.
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– Campaign and Policies set ambitious targets and
strictly
enforced
at
all
levels
of
administration
to
.
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– Individual decision making to restrict fertility
–
Provision of
Family
Planning
information
– Subsidized services
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The
structure
of
a
population
can
have
a
big
impact on the wealth and economy of a
country.
• Young Dependents ‐ Those under 22 years • Young Dependents ‐ Those under 22 years
‐
• Elderly Dependents ‐ 60/65 and over
‐
• Elderly Dependents ‐ 60/65 and over
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What impact can population growth
rate
ave on
uture
econom c
develo ment?
Let’s brainstorm
some
ideas
Too High Growth Rate Too Low Growth Rate
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• School/College and University enrollments
must be multiplied in numbers
• Even if we don’t create jobs for them, they will
end up
somewhere
in
globe;
ultimately
benefiting Pakistan.
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Hi her population
and other socio
institutional‐economic
Higher demand
for goods and
services
eman ‐
induced
inventions
(market pull)
and innovations
Higher Supplyand higher
Productivity
factors
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•
No
relation
between
Population
Growth
Rate and Economic Development.
• Population control policies/laws
survival chance.
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• ropose quest ons to e answere n uture
academic research.
.
Growth and Economic Growth be modeled?
2. What should
be
the
optimal
population
growth
rate
for Pakistan?
3. What is the impact of such interdependences on
, resources
optimally
under
weak
versus
strong
interdependences?
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http://www.indexmundi.com/pakistan/age_structure.html
. e o a a y ust, p ongman ttp: nyt .ms v q a
2. No Babies? http://nyti.ms/Tc2MmI
3. The coming population bust http://nyti.ms/1ncz8YK
4. The Comin Demo ra hic Crisis htt ://hvr.co/1zhHOA1
5. Population Bomb? So Wrong ‐ How electricity, development, and TV reduce
fertility http://bit.ly/S79fy6
6. More
people,
greater
wealth,
more
resources,
healthier
environment,
Julian
Simon htt : bit.l 1aoVXH5
7. China’s Achilles heel http://www.economist.com/node/21553056
8. Pakistan’s Population Growth, Policy, and Comparison with Countries in SEAR
http://www.jimdc.org.pk/Volumes/3‐
2 Pakistan's%20Po ulation%20Growth %20Polic %20and%20Com arison%20wi
th%20Countries%20in%20SEAR.pdf 9. 2‐child norm for local bodies hurts sex ratio
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/twochild‐norm‐for‐local‐bodies‐hurts‐
sex‐ratio/article6388785.ece?homepage=true
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.
Working‐Age
Population
Now
Declining
‐ ‐. .
29/china‐hits‐key‐demographic‐ceiling‐
‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
11. China's labor force shrinking
. . . ‐
01/22/content_34625754.htm