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Electricity and the Human Prospect
The New International Population Order
Joseph ChamiePopulation Division, DESA
United Nations
Stanford UniversityPalo Alto, California8-9 December 2004
What is the message?F U T U R E D K W O R L D E L E C T R I C I T Y H U M A N W O M E N O S P O P U L A T C O S T E N V I R O N G R O W O P T I M A O R D E C L I N D E A T H F Q U I T P I P E N S I O N H E A L T H X U N T E C H S T A T S P O L I C Y P R O S P E C T D A R K
“It takes a strong man to make a tender chicken.”
“It takes an aroused man to make a chicken affectionate.”
“It won’t leak in your pocket and embarrass you.”
“It won’t leak in your pocket and make you pregnant.”
What is the message?
Where are we headed?
World Population in 20th Century
1. Population nearly quadrupled2. Highest population growth rate3. Largest annual population increase4. Shortest doubling time for population5. Shortest time to add 1 billion persons
…/
World Population in 20th Century
6. Revolutionary declines in mortality7. Unprecedented declines in fertility8. Significant international migration9. Increased urbanization 10. Emergence of mega-cities
What kind of demographic future will the new century
bring?
World Population by Variant, 1950-2050
02468
1012
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Year
Popu
latio
n (b
illio
ns) High
Medium
Low
Annual World Population Increase, 1950-2050
8777
29
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.01 9
5 01 9
5 51 9
6 01 9
6 51 9
7 01 9
7 51 9
8 01 9
8 51 9
9 01 9
9 52 0
0 02 0
0 52 0
1 02 0
1 52 0
2 02 0
2 52 0
3 02 0
3 52 0
4 02 0
4 5
Year
Incr
ease
(mill
ions
)
Population of Developed and Developing Regions: 1950, 2000 and 2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1950 2000 2050
Year
Popu
latio
n (b
illion
s)
Developed
Developing
Top Ten Contributers to Population Growth, 2000
India21%
China12%
Pakistan5%
Nigeria4%Bangladesh
4%Indonesia3%
U.S.A.3%
Brazil3%
Congo2%
Ethiopia2%
Other countries41%
Population of Least Developed Countries by Variant, 1950-2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
Population of Nigeria by Variant,1950-2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
Population of Pakistan by Variant,1950-2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Popu
latio
n (m
illion
s)
High
Medium
Low
Population of South Africa by Variant, 1950-2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
Population of Italy by Variant, 1950-2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
Population of Japan by Variant,1950-2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
Population of Canada by Variant, 1950-2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
Zero Mig.
Population of USA by Variant, 1950-2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Pop
ulat
ion
(milli
ons)
High
Medium
Low
Zero mig.
Population of Europe and Africa:1950, 2000, 2050
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1950 2000 2050Year
Popu
latio
n (m
illio
ns) .
.
EuropeAfrica
Population of Russia and Pakistan: 1950, 2000, 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950 2000 2050Year
Popu
latio
n (m
illions
)
RussiaPakistan
Percent 65 Years or Older for World and Italy:
1950, 2000 and 2050
57
16
8
18
34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1950 2000 2050Year
Perc
ent 6
5 ye
ars
or o
lder
..
WorldItaly
Potential Support RatiosNation 2000China 10.0France 4.1Germany 4.2Italy 3.7Canada 5.4USA 5.4
20502.72.11.81.52.42.7
Age in 2050 to Maintain Potential Support RatiosNationChinaFranceGermanyItalyCanadaUSA
Age78.774.076.276.575.273.1
By 2050:1. Larger population2. Slower growth3. Nearly all growth in
developing regions4. Lower fertility5. Many nations smaller
By 2050:6. Lower mortality &
longer life*7. HIV/AIDS worsens 8. Older population9. More urbanized10.Increased migration
What should be done?
DenialDelayDo nothing
Embrace future challenges!
Bold visionStrong and enlightened leadership
Resources
What else?
Thank you!