PLS 121: American Politics and GovernmentPLS 121: American Politics and Government
Political SciencePolitical Science
What is Science?
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The Story Thus Far…
• So far:– The Communist Manifesto
• Today:– Some nomenclature to help us
understand some of the aspects of science.
• Next Time:– The philosophy of science and how
we know when something is science.
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Some Nomenclature
• Theory
• Fact
• Law
• Hypothesis
• Operationalization
• Causation
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Theory
• Primary means of understanding the interactions in the world
• General understanding of the relationship between the variables
• Requirements in science:– General
– Deal with a large set of related results
– Produce empirical hypotheses
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Fact
• A generally agreed-upon interpretation of a phenomenon by competent observers
• Example:– The United States and Iraq were at
war between January 17 and February 27, 1991.
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Law
• A statement, with narrow scope, that has yet to be proven false– If ever shown to be false, it is
totally discarded
• Much narrower in scope than a theory, often focusing on one set of phenomena
• Example:– Modern democracies do not war
with other modern democracies.
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Hypothesis
• A proposed answer to a research question
• An empirical statement about a relationship between empirical variables
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Hypothesis
• The statement creates a partition of the world of possibilities:– Events that support the statement
– Events that conflict with the statement
– Events that have nothing to do with the statement
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Hypothesis
• Requirements:– Empirical
• Observables
– Falsifiable
• The set of conflicting events cannot be empty
– General
• Must apply to more than just one instance
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Hypothesis
• Example:– Free states are less likely to initiate
militarized interstate disputes.
• Checklist:– Empirical
– Falsifiable
– General
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Hypothesis
• Example?– Norway did not go to war with
Luxembourg in 1990.
• Checklist:– Empirical
– Falsifiable
– General
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Hypothesis
• Example?– The United States should withdraw
its forces from Iraq.
• Checklist:– Empirical
– Falsifiable
– General
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Hypothesis
• Example?– Democracies elect their political
representatives.
• Checklist:– Empirical
– Falsifiable
– General
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Hypothesis
• Example?– States that adhere to International
Law are more likely to use international institutions to settle interstate disputes.
• Checklist:– Empirical
– Falsifiable
– General
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Hypothesis
• Example?– Since 1972, states deemed free do
not use violent force first in a conflict.
• Checklist:– Empirical
– Falsifiable
– General
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Hypothesis
• Example?– The freer the market, the freer the
people.
• Checklist:– Empirical
– Falsifiable
– General
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Operationalization
• Each hypothesis contains at least two concepts
• Operationalization defines those concepts in empirical terms
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Operationalization
• Example:– Democracies do not war with other
democracies
– Definitions:
• A democracy is an independent state that elects its effective rulers.
• War is an interstate conflict in which more than 1000 combatants die.
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Operationalization
• Example?– State governments that use direct
democracy are better for their residents.
– Definitions:
• State governments refer to the governments of the 50 US states.
• Direct democracy refers to the initiative, referendum, and recall processes.
• Residents are those who live in the state.
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Causation
• When we say something causes something else, what do we mean?
• How do we show that A causes B?– ‘Show’, ‘demonstrate’, ‘suggest’,
but not ‘PROVE’.
• Requirements:– Exceptional Correlation
– Theoretic Feasibility
– Temporal Precedence
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Causation
• Example:– Electing liberal governments
causes the terrorist groups within the state to reduce their violence.
– Checklist:
• Exceptional Correlation
• Theoretic Feasibility
• Temporal Precedence
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Causation
• Example?– It has been shown that increases in
ice cream sales always precede increases in the violent crime rate.
– Checklist:
• Exceptional Correlation
• Theoretic Feasibility
• Temporal Precedence
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Assignment
• Write five hypotheses– Just scientific hypotheses, no need
for operationalization now
• These hypotheses will be shared during class on Wednesday
• For this assignment ONLY:– Write your hypotheses using
16 point font (Arial or Time NR).
• Why? – The overhead projector needs that
size to project well