IOC contributions to a Global Tsunami EWS and other ocean generated hazards
Symposium on Multi-hazard EWS for Integrated Disaster Risk Management Geneva, 23 May 2006Patricio A. Bernal, Executive Secretary of IOC
Plate TectonicsGFZ, Potsdam
Distribution of Large Earthquakes and Earthquakes Accompanied with Tsunami
Tsunami probability based on historic data F. Schindele, CEA
1965: IOC established the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific Ocean (PTWS) following th valdivia (1960) and Alaska (1964) tsunamis
28 member States (2005):Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, France,Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Thailand, United States, Samoa.
Successful Operational Tsunami Warning System > 40 yrsWell recognised international scientific programPacific Basin monitoring of seismicity and sea levelsDirect humanitarian aimMitigate tsunami effects - save lives/property
IOC ICG/PTWS
After the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and immediate response of the UN and GovernmentsMarch & April 2005: Two International Coordination meetings (Paris and Mauritius) for the Development of an Indian Ocean TWS
June 21-30, 2005: the 23rd IOC Assembly approved resolutions for the establishment of a global strategy and three regional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups on TEWS (XXIII-12 to XXXIII-15) for
the Indian Ocean (ICG/IOTWS) the Caribbean (ICG/CARIBE-EWS) the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean (ICG/NEAMTWS)
Global and Regional Tsunami Warning CentersICG/IOTWSPTWCNWPTACWC/ATWCICG/NEAMTWSSWP-TWSICG/CA
http://ioc3.unesco.org/Indotsunami/
IO initial System for July 2006Based on Existing: Network of 26(29) National Information Centres [24/7]Fast Track implementations of projects to upgrade existing seismographic network improve existing sea-level network (key stations with 1min data transmission interval) upgrade data and information communication system
Agreed Seismographic Stations
The Challenge for the IOWe essentially know what is needed at the country level in 16 countries and this work will be completed in 2006 for the rest.ICG/IOTWS is requesting a comprehensive Plan, incl. the country levelthe need of the development of the National Plans
Necessary Elements for Determination of Earthquake Location and MagnitudeArrival Time of Seismic Waves (P and/or S waves)Location (Latitude, Longitude and Depth)Maximum Amplitude of Seismic WavesMagnitudeP arrivalS arrivalMaximum AmplitudeSeismic Wave
LISS/IRIS Waveforms: Large Earthquake5minutesdata lossdata lossThere are about 20~30% stations JMA could not receive complete waveform data.SAMLTRQARCBRDWPFBBSRPTCNWVTStation MapPSPSPSPPPPChile M7.8, July 13, 2005
Early DetectionJMA could receive complete waveform data from almost all stations.Station MapPPSPPPPCTBTO/IMS WaveformsChile M7.8, July 13, 2005
AverageInternet82.14%CTBTO/IMS99.67%Data Availability
Graph1
12.22222222220
00
1.11111111110
7.77777777780
25.55555555560
53.3333333333100
LISS,IRIS
CTBTO/IMS
Data Availabilty (%)
percentage
Data Availability (July 1,2005 ~ July 6, 2005)
20050701
AFI30.9897.8410098.3596.8996.73100AVERAGEAFI88.68dataLISS,IRISLISS,IRISCTBTO
ANMO99.8999.9410010097.4498.17100ANMO99.350080.0879120879000
ANTO99.9799.6299.9799.9297.2898.1999.92ANTO99.27200-2010.01052631582000
BBSR10099.9710010097.4498.2100BBSR99.374020-40004000
BILL98.3799.9299.6899.9597.3249.5678.33BILL89.026040-6020.02105263166000
CASY99.9699.9499.8999.9591.0398.1899.95CASY98.418060-8080.08791208798000
CCM99.9799.3510099.9796.5197.3699.9CCM99.0110080-100710.780219780210081
COLA99.9299.8899.8499.8497.3397.9299.6COLA99.19
COR79.0699.3610094.1170.6176.9699.97COR88.58
CTAO99.9699.9710010097.4498.1999.98CTAO99.36
DGAR97.16100.0299.7710097.5345.7691.72DGAR90.28
DWPF87.4699.4895.7697.197.4494.78100DWPF96.00
GNI22.5299.7810099.6797.3498.1497.34GNI87.83
GUMO96.5299.9810010095.0775.88100GUMO95.35
HNR29.6610010099.0297.3992.299.96HNR88.32
HRV99.7399.7410099.6797.3398.1599.91HRV99.22
INCN99.83100.1999.9899.6397.3998.1499.94INCN99.30
JOHN7.6918.1900000JOHN3.70
KBS99.8299.7510099.7483.3398.167.59KBS84.06
KIP99.999.96100100.0297.3498.1899.96KIP99.34
KMBO57.2599.7910097.4997.3598.1899.97KMBO92.86
KONO99.6399.7699.9499.6797.3298.1799.87KONO99.19
LSZ4.7699.1710094.6397.4298.299.91LSZ84.87
LVC48.3597.599.8799.9497.396.7432.91LVC81.80
MA299.8199.799.8799.997.2798.1599.83MA299.22
MAJO99.8299.784.8235.3597.3398.1499.9MAJO76.45
MBWA99.81100.04100100.297.3998.299.92MBWA99.37
MIDW99.8599.9510099.8997.3798.1999.93MIDW99.31
NWAO99.8399.9310099.6797.398.299.97NWAO99.27
OTAV99.59100.0110099.2997.3320.120OTAV73.76
PALK90.52100.0999.6299.9897.3945.7689.19PALK88.94
PAYG99.4899.7110010097.4490.2899.39PAYG98.04
PET99.4599.710099.9697.3998.1799.04PET99.10
PMG36.54100.0510098.9197.4498.2899.04PMG90.04
PMSA99.3299.5199.9299.997.3698.2198.88PMSA99.01
POHA99.4899.5410099.8997.4798.1798.93POHA99.07
PTCN99.4299.7210099.8997.4298.198.83PTCN99.05
QSPA47.8648.4348.3947.9546.0946.2348.67QSPA47.66LISS,IRIS82.14%
RAO61.5899.9410097.6697.4598.4199.12RAO93.45CTBTO%
RAR6299.8610098.9997.4498.0799.01RAR93.62
RCBR99.464.7769.0292.0897.4697.1499.29RCBR88.45
RSSD99.3799.9199.9399.8493.5293.5499.24RSSD97.91
SAML95.7794.9797.2399.8896.6268.6951.49SAML86.38
SBA0000000SBA0.00
SDV55.7999.8499.9899.8697.3895.443.78SDV78.87
SJG99.4299.4599.9799.9183.3747.1897.71SJG89.57
SNZO99.7100.0199.8699.9297.4798.21100SNZO99.31
TATO99.7499.86100.0299.9297.4598.09100TATO99.30LISS,IRISCTBTO/IMS
TAU87.7299.9799.3799.9297.4945.7595.79TAU89.430-501112.22222222220
TEIG59.5299.9599.9399.9697.4198.1100TEIG93.5550-60000
TIXI66.5385.7985.6578.1476.0674.3748.09TIXI73.525060-7011.11111111110
TRIS62.86100.0199.9999.9197.4598.0699.98TRIS94.046070-8077.77777777780
TRQA99.6699.8199.8799.8729.8890.52100TRQA88.527080-902325.55555555560
TSUM59.8799.7274.5589.5597.4698.15100TSUM88.478090-1004853.3333333333100
TUC99.5599.4299.7899.6997.1997.9799.83TUC99.0690
ULN99.4799.6799.9399.9294.9598.299.93ULN98.87100
WAKE99.6899.67100.0399.9297.4697.98100WAKE99.25
WCI0000000WCI0.00
WVT58.1998.5399.7399.997.3496.9599.46WVT92.87
YAK97.799.7399.9299.5997.3897.8599.98YAK98.88
YSS99.6899.899.9299.8297.3898.0299.79YSS99.20
AAK30.0999.3799.2481.5896.1545.7182.02AAK76.31
BFO68.66100.2499.62100.0297.4545.8698.04BFO87.13
BORG0000000BORG0.00
BRVK0000000BRVK0.00
CMLA0000000CMLA0.00
ESK82.02100.0699.78100.0297.4640.8696.67ESK88.12
FFC5299.6299.24100.0497.4845.8115.43FFC72.80
JTS77.29100.28100.1298.8592.3745.880JTS73.54
KDAK88.94100.1999.23100.0597.5245.8291.61KDAK89.05
KIV80.319.6640.3888.267.3600KIV40.84
KURK0000000KURK0.00
LVZ0000000LVZ0.00
MBAR70.7999.9299.599.9597.6745.7988.79MBAR86.06
NNA77.5942.3798.8498.5192.561.3423.68NNA62.13
OBN86.38100.1999.499.997.4845.5697.38OBN89.47
PFO90.82100.1699.3699.8997.4445.792.04PFO89.34
RPN0000000RPN0.00
SUR90.6499.7298.9999.9597.3445.6388.05SUR88.62
WRAB90.97100.0899.7199.9897.4113.4487.13WRAB84.10
KKM99.699.999.8699.9297.599.2100KKM99.43
KSM99.4999.9299.8899.9597.599.06100KSM99.40
KULM99.5899.8999.9199.9697.5299.1199.98KULM99.42
NACB99.4197.7799.8699.8497.5498.94100NACB99.05
TWGB99.499.799.8999.8597.5399.02100TWGB99.34
TPUB99.3799.799.8799.8797.5598.97100TPUB99.33
SSLB99.4199.7299.8599.9297.5499100SSLB99.35
KMNB99.3999.8199.8699.997.5299.02100KMNB99.36
YULB94.1697.9299.8699.8897.5197.42100YULB98.11
YHNB99.4199.7299.8899.997.5599.08100YHNB99.36
CTBTOCMAR99.30
ILAR99.36
KMBO99.96
LPAZ99.83
PMG99.70
STKA99.86
SUR99.56
USHA99.8299.67
20050701
00
00
00
00
00
00
LISS,IRIS
CTBTO
(7/17/7)
LISS,IRIS
CTBTO
(2005/07/012005/07/07)
Data Transmission Delay CTBTO/IMS : 30 seconds at most LISS :100 seconds on average IRIS :180 seconds on average
Graph1
00
0.1702127660.8181818182
0.21276595740
0.14893617020
0.03191489360
0.0851063830
0.05319148940
0.03191489360
00
00
0.01063829790
0.25531914890.1818181818
LISS,IRIS
CTBTO
Graph2
00
027.2727272727
054.5454545455
1.09890109890
16.48351648350
12.08791208790
6.59340659340
12.08791208790
3.29670329670
2.19780219780
1.09890109890
3.29670329670
5.49450549450
1.09890109890
4.39560439560
2.19780219780
1.09890109890
00
00
00
00
27.4725274725018.1818181818
LISS,IRIS
CTBTO/IMS
CTBTO/IMS(under upgrading)
delay (sec)
percentage
05080814
ADK3800LISS,IRISCTBTO %
AFI90.05300000.00%
ANMO1126030160.1702127660.8181818182.00%
ANTO469060200.2127659574017.02%
BBSR5512090140.1489361702038.30%
BILL5215012030.0319148936053.19%
CASY5018015080.085106383056.38%
CCM9521018050.0531914894064.89%
COCO38024021030.0319148936070.21%
COLA5827024000073.40%
COR7030027000073.40%
CTAO7033030010.0106382979073.40%
DGAR109330240.25531914890.1818181818
DWPF38094
GNI92
GUMO53
HKT3800LISS,IRISCTBTO/IMS
HNR68150000
HRV56.3301503027.2727272727
JOHN380453006054.5454545455
KBS82.7604511.09890109890
KIP62.1575601516.48351648350
KMBO4190751112.08791208790
KONO671059066.59340659340
LSZ791201051112.08791208790
LVC90.113512033.29670329670
MA213115013522.19780219780
MBWA8316515011.09890109890
MIDW9518016533.29670329670
MSKU38019518055.49450549450
NWAO10221019511.09890109890
OTAV38022521044.39560439560
PALK22524022522.19780219780
PAYG38025524011.09890109890
PET62270255000
PMG51285270000
PMSA67300285000
POHA380300000
PTCN57.125227.4725274725018.1818181818
PTGA380300
QSPA68
RAO60
RAR52
RCBR46
RSSD61
SAML78
SBA380
SDV58
SJG380
SNZO45.1
SSPA380
TAU158
TEIG380
TIXI380
TRIS70.05
TRQA187
TSUM82
TUC95.15
ULN380
WAKE87
WCI94
WVT108
YAK91.85
YSS101
AAK239
ARU380
ASCN179
BFO380
BORG178
BRVK197
CMLA125
ESK201
FFC380
HOPE380
JTS221
KDAK177
KIV380
KURK169
KWAJ178
LVZ380
MBAR308
NNA206
OBN205
PFO157
RPN102
SUR154
TLY380
WRAB136
GRFO380
KEV54
SFJD73
118.7507142857
IRIS190.666666666762.1544415402
LISS103.195370370491.7561806721
Earthquake Detection and DelayLPAZ (Earliest CTBTO/IMS station)Earthquake Detection at JMA(30 seconds delay)Earthquake Detection at JMA(100 seconds delay)Seismic wave arrived at the CTBTO/IMS earliest station 110 seconds earlier than at LISS earliest station.JMA could detect the earthquakeby the CTBTO/IMS station 180 seconds earlier than by the LISS station.SAML (Earliest LISS station)Chile M7.8, July 13, 2005
Depth Error Estimated HypocenterInternet(LISS,IRIS)Internet(LISS,IRIS)+CTBTO/IMSDepth Error (km)
Horizontal Error Estimated HypocenterInternet(LISS,IRIS)Internet(LISS,IRIS)+CTBTO/IMSNear Sumatra Islands
Horizontal Error Estimated HypocenterInternet(LISS,IRIS)Internet(LISS,IRIS)+CTBTO/IMSNear Chile (Southern America)
IOC contributions to monitoring other Hazards of ocean originStorm surges, JCOMM (IOC WMO)Tropical storms, JCOMMImproving Storm and cyclones tracking and landing forecasts, JCOMMExtreme ocean wave weather (36 72 hours forecastsIce Hazard, JCOMMOil Spills tracking and landing, IOC, WMO, UNEPRed Tides, IOC, FAO, WHO
Development of Interoperable Regional EWS.03-05 Aug 2005: ICG/IOTWS-I, Perth21-22 Nov 2005: ICG/NEAMTWS-I, Rome14-16 Dec 2005: ICG/IOTWS-II, Hyderabad10-12 Jan 2006: ICG/CARTWS-I, Barbados1-5 May 2006: ICG/ITSU-XXI, Melbourne22-24 May 2006: ICG/NEAMTWS-II, Nice and to come:31 July-2 August 2006: ICG/IOTWS-III, BaliDec 2006: ICG/CARTWS-II, VenezuelaGlobal IntegrationApply synergies and cost-efficiency into the development of a single global meta-system24 of June 2006: Global Multi-hazard meeting in Paris, Ad-hoc WG on the framework for a Global Tsunami and other Ocean-related Hazards Early Warning System. IOC Strategy and implementation
For further information see:
http://www.ioc-goos.org/http://ioc.unesco.org/indotsunamihttp://ioc3.unesco.org/neamtwshttp://ioc3.unesco.org/cartws http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic
Before reporting the results of the experiment, I would like to review earthquakes, tsunamis and tsunami warning.
This figure shows the distribution of large earthquakes with magnitude 6 or greater and earthquakes which generated tsunamis. A lot of earthquakes with tsunami occurred in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean region. You may have already noticed that tsunamis had occurred in almost all oceans and seas, for example, the Atlantic Ocean. And you have to remind the fact that tsunami will propagate long distance with its huge energy.
Feb 28 1969M7.3Reverse type fault. Tsunami with maximum amplitude 1m attacked coast of PortugalFeb 29 1975M7.9Though the magnitude of the earthquake was greater than that of 1969 event, the maximum amplitude of generated tsunami was only 20-30cm because fault type of the earthquake was strike-slip type.
1969/02/28M7.31m1975/02/29M7.92030cmBACKGROUND - IGC/ITSU
26 member States (2005):Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, France,Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Thailand, United States, Samoa.
ITSU is an example of:Successful Operational Tsunami Warning SystemSuccessful international scientific programPacific Basin monitoring of seismicity and sea levelsDirect humanitarian aimMitigate tsunami effects - save lives/property
There are three tsunami warning centers In operation, and five centers under consideration like ICG/IOTWS. In addition to these centers, establishment of global center is also been discussing. Discussions for most of centers started before the Great Indian Ocean Tsunami.
/320041226
It is necessary to read arrival times of Primary wave and/or Secondary wave of several stations in order to determinate epicenter and focal depth of earthquake. It is also necessary to read maximum amplitudes of seismic waveform at several stations for evaluation of magnitude of the earthquake. This means that it is important for earthquake analysis to obtain complete seismic waveform data. I will show you waveform of LISS/IRIS data and CTBTO/IMS data. These are the waveforms actually observed at LISS/IRIS stations when the earthquake with M7.8 occurred in Chile, 13 July this year. There are some "data loss" in these waveforms. Under these conditions, we have sometimes difficulties in determining the hypocenter and magnitude. There are about 20~30% stations JMA could not use seismic waveform data for earthquake analysis. 203072data lossP100 These seismic waveform data are obtained from CTBTO/IMS stations for the same earthquake shown in the previous slide. We could receive complete waveform data from almost all CTBTO/IMS stations.
CTBTO
CTBTOTestLPAZCTBTO30
JMA calculates data availability of the CTBTO/IMS sites selected for the experiment. It was 99.67% during the period from 1 to 6 July, while the Internet data availability was 82.14% during the same period. CTBTO/IMS data availability ismuch higher than the Internet data.
CTBTO87/17/699.6782.14% This figure shows the data transmission delay. LISS and IRIS data is transmitted through the Internet with delay of 100 and 180 seconds on average, respectively. On the other hand, CTBTO/IMS data is transmitted in 30 seconds via the VSAT communication. We can receive CTBTO/IMS data much earlier than LISS/IRIS data.
CTBTOLISS100IRIS18030200CTBTOunder upgrading300CMARILARupgradeCTBTO30CTBTOVSAT This is the case of the earthquake occurred in Chile, 13 June this year. JMA could receive data from CTBTO LPAZ station 180 seconds earlier than the earliest LISS station.
100180CTBTO30613CTBTOLPAZLPAZ30SAML100
To estimate a tsuanmigenic potential correctly, focal depth estimation is essential. And it is also important for Tsunami Warning to determine accurately whether the epicenter is in an oceanic area or in a land area when an earthquake took place near a coast. Generally, the accuracy of estimated earthquake parameters increases if we can use seismic data from more stations. I would like to demonstrate how much the accuracy would be improved if we can use the data from the CTBTO network, by using a computer simulation technique. This shows errors of estimated hypocenter depth. The top figure is derived only from the Internet data obtained from the stations with more than 60% of data availability. The bottom one is the result of adding the data from CTBTO including the planned stations. These are also the cases in the following figures. Red and purple areas are of large error while green and yellow are small. We can see that the accuracy is improved in most of the area including the Indian Ocean. This shows horizontal errors of estimated hypocenter around Sumatra Island, where the big earthquake occurred in December 2004. The left is the case we use only the Internet data, and the right includes CTBTO. In both figures, an ellipsoid denotes an estimated epicentral error. In the left figure, a lot of error ellipsoids are large so that they extend both to land area and ocean. That means that we cannot distinguish an inland earthquake and an ocean one precisely. On the other hand, in the right figure, we can distinguish an inland earthquake and an ocean one more precisely. In 1960, a big earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile. This earthquake generated a ocean-wide destructive tsunami. The accuracy is also improved in this area.