NJ Final State Plan: A Key to Economic Stimulus or Sprawl?

New Jersey Land Conservation RallyBrookdale Community College, Lincroft, Monmouth County

New Jersey FuturePeter Kasabach, Executive Director

March 10, 2012

 

Smart Growth research, policy and advocacy organization

Development that protects open space and farmland, revitalizes communities, keeps housing affordable, and provides transportation choices

Economic Model of Perpetual Growth

New Jersey has grown in population every year since we started counting.

But our borders have never grown.

• Between 1850-1930 growth averaged 30% and just over 400,000 people per decade.

Decennial Census Population % #

1790 184,1391800 211,149 15% 27,0101810 245,562 16% 34,4131820 277,575 13% 32,0131830 320,823 16% 43,2481840 373,306 16% 52,4831850 489,555 31% 116,2491860 672,035 37% 182,4801870 906,096 35% 234,0611880 1,131,116 25% 225,0201890 1,444,933 28% 313,8171900 1,883,669 30% 438,7361910 2,537,167 35% 653,4981920 3,155,900 24% 618,7331930 4,041,334 28% 885,4341940 4,160,165 3% 118,8311950 4,835,329 16% 675,1641960 6,066,782 25% 1,231,4531970 7,171,112 18% 1,104,3301980 7,365,011 3% 193,8991990 7,730,188 5% 365,1772000 8,414,350 9% 684,1622010 8,791,894 4% 377,544

How do we manage growth?

New Jersey has had two very different growth patterns.

• Center-based growth (walkable urban) until the 1950s.

• Then sprawl (driveable sub-urban).

Decennial Census Population % #

1790 184,1391800 211,149 15% 27,0101810 245,562 16% 34,4131820 277,575 13% 32,0131830 320,823 16% 43,2481840 373,306 16% 52,4831850 489,555 31% 116,2491860 672,035 37% 182,4801870 906,096 35% 234,0611880 1,131,116 25% 225,0201890 1,444,933 28% 313,8171900 1,883,669 30% 438,7361910 2,537,167 35% 653,4981920 3,155,900 24% 618,7331930 4,041,334 28% 885,4341940 4,160,165 3% 118,8311950 4,835,329 16% 675,1641960 6,066,782 25% 1,231,4531970 7,171,112 18% 1,104,3301980 7,365,011 3% 193,8991990 7,730,188 5% 365,1772000 8,414,350 9% 684,1622010 8,791,894 4% 377,544

 

Percentage of NJ’s Population Living at Various Densities, 1930 to 2008

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20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

percentage of NJ's population living at various densities 1930 to 2008

urban/compact (5,000 and up) suburban (1,500 - 4,999)

exurban (500 - 1,499) rural (< 500)

density (persons per square mile):

1934 Governor Moore creates temporary state planning board and first state planning act passed.

State Planning

• First State Development Plan

• GS Parkway, NJ Turnpike, Round Valley Reservoir, Wharton and Worthington forests.

• Policy Map from current State Development and Redevelopment Plan.

• From 1986 State Planning Act

• Five Planning Areas.

State Planning

1986 1995 2002 2007

"available" ("developable") acres - not developed, not permanently preserved or environmentally constrained 1,931,837 1,772,099 1,345,425 991,638

% of state's land area that was developed / urbanized 26.0% 28.7% 31.2% 32.9%

1986 - 1995 1995 - 2002 2002 - 2007

newly-developed acres per year 13,998 16,700 16,059

population growth rate 6.0% 5.7% 1.1%

ratio, % change in developed acres to % change in population 1.72 1.54 5.14

Running Out of Land

Continuing Inefficient Sprawl

Built Out, But Still Growing

2004 = 204 municipalities at least 90% built out2007 = 271 municipalities at least 90% built out

Built-out places of all types accounted for a much larger share of total statewide building permit activity in the 2000s, after the adoption of the Rehab Subcode in 1998, than they had in the 1990s.

Our Goals for State Planning

• Encourage Center-based growth that results in more walkable communities and more efficient use of land

• Prioritize Redevelopment

• Discourage sprawl and high value greenfield and farm field conversion

• Cluster Development

Our Expectations for the State Plan

• Identify places to grow and places to preserve.

• Align state investments to support these areas.

• Guide the type of development, not just the location.

• Create density patterns that allow transportation choice, mixes of uses, economic agglomeration and contiguous preserved and protected spaces.

• Facilitate consistency with the plan between state, county, and locals.

 

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New Jersey Future

Peter Kasabach, Executive Director

www.njfuture.org

609-393-0008