Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict
Gellner & Huntington
Nationalism (Gellner)Nationalism is a theory of political legitimacy which requires that ethnic boundaries should not cut across political onesEthnic boundaries within a state should not separate power holders from the rest.
DefinitionsState: a legally independent entity that has a
permanent population, well-defined territory, and a government.
Nation: a grouping of people with a common culture (religion, language, history, etc.)
Nations and StatesMany nations cross several states (Kurds)
Distribution of The Kurdish People
Kurdish % of % of
Country Population State All Kurds
Turkey 13,650,000 24% 53%
Iran 6,600,000 12% 26%
Iraq 4,400,000 23% 17%
Syria 1,160,000 9% 4%
Nations and StatesMany states include several “nations”
State Group Group Size (% of State)India Muslims98,600,000 (11.6%)
Sikhs 15,980,000 (1.9%)Kashmiris 2,890,000 (0.03%)
Lebanon Maronites 1,360,000 (35.6%)
Shi'ites 1,085,000 (28.4%)Sunnis 780,000 (20.4%)Palestinians 430,000 (11.3%)Druze 170,000 (4.5%)
Nations and StatesState GroupGroup Size (% of State)
Iraq Shi'ites 9,800,000 (52.0%)
Sunnis 3,950,000 (21.0%)
Kurds 4,150,000 (22.0%)
(Source: Ted Gurr, 1990, Minorities at Risk )
There are 5000 distinct communities in the current world of less than 200 nation-states.
Sources of Nationalist Conflict1) Multiple ethnic, religious, or linguistic groups,
combined with some type of inequality or injustice
2) Repression or persecution of ethnic groups3) Nationalist conflict often occurs when a minority
nation (group) has political control in a state over a majority nation (group).
Consequences of Nationalism1) Separatist movements2) Civil war/conflict3) Irredentism4) International support for autonomy or secession5) Refugees
Huntington: Clash of CivilizationsThe world can be divided into 9 major civilizationsWestern, African, Sinic (Confucian), Hindu, Islamic, Japanese, Latin American, Orthodox, and Buddhist
Comparison of Civilizations (Source, Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations)
% of Entire World's:Civilization Terr. Pop. Econ. MilitaryWestern: 24.2 13.1 48.9 21.1African: 10.8 9.5 2.1 3.4Sinic: 7.5 24.0 10.0 25.7Hindu: 2.4 16.4 3.5 4.8Islamic: 21.1 15.9 11.0 20.0Japanese: 0.3 2.2 8.0 1.0L. American: 14.9 9.3 8.3 6.3Orthodox: 13.7 6.1 6.2 14.3Other: 5.2 3.5 2.0 3.5
Huntington: Clash of CivilizationsThe bloodiest conflicts in the future will occur along
the borders separating these civilizations because:Differences among cultures will not changeInteractions in the world are increasing Reaction to the WestEconomic regionalism reinforces divisions
Testing Huntington’s argumentsConflict within Civilizations: 28
Within Islam: 7Within Africa: 10Other: 11
Conflict between Civilizations: 31Islam vs. Other: 21Other vs. Other: 10
Total Ethnic Conflicts (1993): 59 (Source: New York Times 2/7/93, reprinted in Huntington, 1996, The Clash of Civilizations )
Testing Huntington’s argumentsEmpirical Analysis, 1989-1992 (Post Cold War)
Column I Column IIMixed Civilization -2.11* -.96Distance -.34*Joint Democracy -.33*Power Parity 1.01* Sig at .05 level N=58,274 N=36,168
Source: Henderson and Tucker (2001, ISQ)
Testing Huntington’s argumentsEmpirical Analysis, 1946-1988 (Cold War)
Column I Column IIMixed Civilization .33 .55Distance -.30*Joint Democracy -3.12*Power Parity 1.17** Sig at .05 level N=338,976 N=267,315
Source: Henderson and Tucker (2001, ISQ)
Testing Huntington’s argumentsEmpirical Analysis, 1816-1945 (Pre-Cold War)
Column I Column IIMixed Civilization -.60* -.59*Distance -.30Joint Democracy -2.37*Power Parity .17* Sig at .05 level N=118,648 N=97,901
Source: Henderson and Tucker (2001, ISQ)
ConclusionsNot much empirical evidence for Huntington’s thesisStates from different civilizations are actually less likely to fight each (1816-1945, 1989-1992)Once you control for distance, joint democracy, and power parity, civilization membership has no effect on the probability of dyadic militarized conflict (except from 1816-1945, and it is neg.)
Further Debate on the Horizon?Newer tests (by FSU grad students!) using expanded post Cold War data (1990-2001) provide stronger support.Pairs of states from different civilizations are more likely to fight (esp. if they share a direct border).There is some evidence that likelihood of conflict is higher in West vs. Rest dyads.