Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict

Gellner & Huntington

Nationalism (Gellner)Nationalism is a theory of political legitimacy which requires that ethnic boundaries should not cut across political onesEthnic boundaries within a state should not separate power holders from the rest.

DefinitionsState: a legally independent entity that has a

permanent population, well-defined territory, and a government.

Nation: a grouping of people with a common culture (religion, language, history, etc.)

Nations and StatesMany nations cross several states (Kurds)

Distribution of The Kurdish People

  Kurdish % of % of

Country Population State All Kurds

Turkey 13,650,000 24% 53%

Iran 6,600,000 12% 26%

Iraq 4,400,000 23% 17%

Syria 1,160,000 9% 4%

Nations and StatesMany states include several “nations”

State Group Group Size (% of State)India Muslims98,600,000 (11.6%)

Sikhs 15,980,000 (1.9%)Kashmiris 2,890,000 (0.03%)

 Lebanon Maronites 1,360,000 (35.6%)

Shi'ites 1,085,000 (28.4%)Sunnis 780,000 (20.4%)Palestinians 430,000 (11.3%)Druze 170,000 (4.5%) 

Nations and StatesState GroupGroup Size (% of State)

Iraq Shi'ites 9,800,000 (52.0%)

Sunnis 3,950,000 (21.0%)

Kurds 4,150,000 (22.0%)

 

(Source: Ted Gurr, 1990, Minorities at Risk )

There are 5000 distinct communities in the current world of less than 200 nation-states.

Sources of Nationalist Conflict1) Multiple ethnic, religious, or linguistic groups,

combined with some type of inequality or injustice

2) Repression or persecution of ethnic groups3) Nationalist conflict often occurs when a minority

nation (group) has political control in a state over a majority nation (group).

Consequences of Nationalism1) Separatist movements2) Civil war/conflict3) Irredentism4) International support for autonomy or secession5) Refugees

Huntington: Clash of CivilizationsThe world can be divided into 9 major civilizationsWestern, African, Sinic (Confucian), Hindu, Islamic, Japanese, Latin American, Orthodox, and Buddhist

Comparison of Civilizations (Source, Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations)

% of Entire World's:Civilization Terr. Pop. Econ. MilitaryWestern: 24.2 13.1 48.9 21.1African: 10.8 9.5 2.1 3.4Sinic: 7.5 24.0 10.0 25.7Hindu: 2.4 16.4 3.5 4.8Islamic: 21.1 15.9 11.0 20.0Japanese: 0.3 2.2 8.0 1.0L. American: 14.9 9.3 8.3 6.3Orthodox: 13.7 6.1 6.2 14.3Other: 5.2 3.5 2.0 3.5

Huntington: Clash of CivilizationsThe bloodiest conflicts in the future will occur along

the borders separating these civilizations because:Differences among cultures will not changeInteractions in the world are increasing Reaction to the WestEconomic regionalism reinforces divisions

Testing Huntington’s argumentsConflict within Civilizations: 28

Within Islam: 7Within Africa: 10Other: 11

Conflict between Civilizations: 31Islam vs. Other: 21Other vs. Other: 10

Total Ethnic Conflicts (1993): 59 (Source: New York Times 2/7/93, reprinted in Huntington, 1996, The Clash of Civilizations )

Testing Huntington’s argumentsEmpirical Analysis, 1989-1992 (Post Cold War)

Column I Column IIMixed Civilization -2.11* -.96Distance -.34*Joint Democracy -.33*Power Parity 1.01* Sig at .05 level N=58,274 N=36,168

Source: Henderson and Tucker (2001, ISQ)

Testing Huntington’s argumentsEmpirical Analysis, 1946-1988 (Cold War)

Column I Column IIMixed Civilization .33 .55Distance -.30*Joint Democracy -3.12*Power Parity 1.17** Sig at .05 level N=338,976 N=267,315

Source: Henderson and Tucker (2001, ISQ)

Testing Huntington’s argumentsEmpirical Analysis, 1816-1945 (Pre-Cold War)

Column I Column IIMixed Civilization -.60* -.59*Distance -.30Joint Democracy -2.37*Power Parity .17* Sig at .05 level N=118,648 N=97,901

Source: Henderson and Tucker (2001, ISQ)

ConclusionsNot much empirical evidence for Huntington’s thesisStates from different civilizations are actually less likely to fight each (1816-1945, 1989-1992)Once you control for distance, joint democracy, and power parity, civilization membership has no effect on the probability of dyadic militarized conflict (except from 1816-1945, and it is neg.)

Further Debate on the Horizon?Newer tests (by FSU grad students!) using expanded post Cold War data (1990-2001) provide stronger support.Pairs of states from different civilizations are more likely to fight (esp. if they share a direct border).There is some evidence that likelihood of conflict is higher in West vs. Rest dyads.