National Centers for Environmental Prediction
“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”
History of NCEP
• 1954 - Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit formed
• 1961 - Full funding from US Weather Bureau– AD, DD,FD,ExFD
• 1974 – Move to WWB• 1979 – CAC created• 1984 – additions
– Computer Operations from NOAA– NHC– NSSFC
• 1995 – NCEP created– NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC,
CPC, AWC, SPC (move to
Norman in ’97), TPC
– SEC becomes NCEP’s 9th center (remains an OAR lab)
• 2004 – SEC enters NWS
*As of 10/1/04*51 FTE
Total FTE: 426*131 Contractors/24 Visitors
NCEP Mission Statement
NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, ocean and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database.
Space Environment Center
Storm Prediction Center
Aviation Weather CenterNCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center
Tropical Prediction Center
NCEP Central Operations (NCO)
• Operates and maintains the operational suite of the numerical analyses and forecast models and prepares NCEP products for dissemination
• Ingest and quality control of observational data from around the world
• Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
Computing Capability
Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)
$20M/Year $20M/Year InvestmentInvestment
•Receives Over 116 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•Upgraded 2.5x by October 1, 2004•Backup for operational side: Fairmont, WV installation Fall’04
Environmental Modeling CenterDevelops and improves numerical weather, climate hydrological and ocean prediction through a broad program of applied research in data analysis, modeling and product development
– Global, regional domains– Weather, climate, hurricane, ocean, ozone models– Forecasts out to 16 days
NCEP Operational ModelsEta
12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z
Global Forecast System (GFS)
T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels
T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels
T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels
16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day
RUC
20 km, 50 levels
12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z
3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z
Climate Forecast System (CFS)
T62 (~200 km), 64 levels, 7 months (20 members)
coupled w/GFDL quasi-global MOM3 ocean model
Ensembles
global 10 members at 00, 06,12,18Z
T126 (~105 km) to 180 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs
28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs)
regional 10 members at 0 and 12Z
48 km, 45 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z
Wave Model
global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon
Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon
Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon
Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon
1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day
North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal)
North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal)
.25 x .25 deg lat/lon
1 level
78 hours/4 times per day
GFDL Hurricane Model
coupled ocean-atmosphere
Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon)
42 levels
126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z
High Resolution Applications
• Six Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) High resolution Window nested runs (all 8 km except 10 km Alaska) - once per day to 48 hours
High Resolution Applications
• Six Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale
Model (NMM) High resolution Window nested runs (all 8 km except 10 km Alaska) - once per day to 48 hours
• Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX) – 12 km, 60 lvl (downscaled
locally to 5km using SmartInit scripts)
– CONUS at 06 and 18Z, AK at 00 and 12Z
– 84-192 h, 6-h frequency
High Resolution Applications
• Fire weather runs for IMET
support – 8 km NMM runs in one of 26 areas of coverage, each about 900 km square up to 4/day; area selected by Boise National Interagency Fire Center -SPC
• Dispersion model run on demand using 4 km NMM for Homeland Security
Fire Weather IMET Support
8 km NMM captures CA coastal windsGreen – model windsRed – observed winds
12 km Eta 8 km NMM
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
Version 3.0 April 9, 2004
0
20
40
60
80
100
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00
6 Hour Cycle
Per
cent
Use
d
RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center• Provides forecast, guidance, and analysis products and services in
support of the daily public forecasting activities of the National Weather Service and its customers – Quantitative precipitation forecasts, excessive rainfall, river flood outlook,
and heavy ice & snow guidance– medium-range guidance (Days 3-7)– model diagnostic discussions and associated graphics tools– surface analyses & basic weather forecasts– International Training Desks– Winter Weather products
• Provides tailored weather support to other government agencies in emergency and special situations.
Day 1 QPF - 24 hour accumulated precipitation from HPC
Ocean Prediction Center• Provides atmospheric and oceanographic warning,
forecast, and analysis products and services for thenorth Atlantic and north Pacific
• Atlantic and Pacific high seas– narrative warnings & forecasts to 48 h– graphic analyses and forecasts to 96 h– Offshore warnings– Sea-state analysis and forecast graphics– Weather analysis and forecast narratives– Global quality control of marine observations
Climate Prediction Center• Assesses and predicts the impacts of short-term climate variability,
emphasizing enhanced risks of weather related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.
• Climate Outlooks– Tropical Pacific SSTs– Seasonal and Monthly Temperature and
Precipitation Anomalies– Seasonal Drought Outlooks– Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks– Day 6-10 and 8-14 Outlooks– Hazard Assessments – Day 3-14 – Weather/Climate Connection– UV Index
• Climate monitoring• Oceans, drought, temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, ozone
Aviation Weather Center• Provides aviation warnings and forecasts of hazardous flight
conditions at all levels within domestic and international airspace• Domestic programs
– Area Forecast (FA)– AIRMETs/SIGMETs icing, turbulence, IFR, volcanic ash (WS) – Convective SIGMETs thunderstorms, valid 2 hrs, outlook valid 2-6 hrs
(WST) – CCFP significant thunderstorm outlook (2/4/6 hrs) – Low Level SIGWX prog
• International Products– Gulf of Mexico Area Forecast for Helicopters– Caribbean Area Forecast for General Aviation– International SIGMETs for 7 Oceanic Areas– High Level Significant Weather Charts for 7 ICAO areas– International Flight Folder Documentation Program (IFFDP)
Storm Prediction Center
• Provides timely and accurate forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. The SPC also monitors heavy rain, heavy snow, and fire weather events across the U.S. and issues specific products for those hazards.– Severe Weather Watches– Day 1, 2 and 3 Convective Outlooks– Day 1 and 2 Fire Weather Outlooks– Mesoscale Discussions
Tropical Prediction Center• Provides official NWS forecasts of the movement and
strength of tropical weather systems and issues the appropriate watches and warnings for the US and surrounding area. – Tropical cyclone products include tropical cyclone
forecast/advisories, discussions, strike probabilities, and position estimates
– Tropical marine products include high seas forecasts for the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and south Pacific Oceans and offshore forecasts for for the southwest north Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Isabel
Thursday, 9/18/0312 PM EDT5-day forecast
3-day forecast
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS
12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Period (hours)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Err
or
(nau
tica
l mile
s)
1964-1973
1984-1993
1974-1983
1994-2002
Isabel
2003
Space Environment Center
• Provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth– Monitors solar and geomagnetic activity 24 hours a day, alerts
users when possibly disruptive or dangerous changes occur in the space environment and issues daily forecasts of space environment conditions
– acts as the World Warning Agency for the space environment. – Synthesizes and disseminates information about
past, present, and future conditions in the space environment for space weather users
What Does NCEP Do?
Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Quantitative Precipitation
Forecasts to 5 days Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions
Severe Weather Watches Hurricane Watches and
Warnings Aviation Warnings
(Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to
Seasonal to Interannual) Marine High Seas Forecasts Solar Monitoring –
geomagnetic storm forecasts
Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products
Model Development and Applications, including Data AssimilationOcean Models for Climate Prediction; Coastal Ocean Forecast System; Wave ModelsSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations
NCEP Productshttp://www.ncep.noaa.gov
Climate Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Hydrometeorological Prediction Centerhttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Storm Prediction Centerhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Tropical Prediction Centerhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Ocean Prediction Centerhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Aviation Weather Centerhttp://aviationweather.gov/
Space Environment Centerhttp://www.sec.noaa.gov/ncep/