National Centers for Environmental Prediction

“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

History of NCEP

• 1954 - Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit formed

• 1961 - Full funding from US Weather Bureau– AD, DD,FD,ExFD

• 1974 – Move to WWB• 1979 – CAC created• 1984 – additions

– Computer Operations from NOAA– NHC– NSSFC

• 1995 – NCEP created– NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC,

CPC, AWC, SPC (move to

Norman in ’97), TPC

– SEC becomes NCEP’s 9th center (remains an OAR lab)

• 2004 – SEC enters NWS

*As of 10/1/04*51 FTE

Total FTE: 426*131 Contractors/24 Visitors

NCEP Mission Statement

NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, ocean and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database.

Space Environment Center

Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather CenterNCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

NCEP Central Operations (NCO)

• Operates and maintains the operational suite of the numerical analyses and forecast models and prepares NCEP products for dissemination

• Ingest and quality control of observational data from around the world

• Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

Computing Capability

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

$20M/Year $20M/Year InvestmentInvestment

•Receives Over 116 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•Upgraded 2.5x by October 1, 2004•Backup for operational side: Fairmont, WV installation Fall’04

Environmental Modeling CenterDevelops and improves numerical weather, climate hydrological and ocean prediction through a broad program of applied research in data analysis, modeling and product development

– Global, regional domains– Weather, climate, hurricane, ocean, ozone models– Forecasts out to 16 days

NCEP Operational ModelsEta

12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z

Global Forecast System (GFS)

T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels

T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels

T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels

16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day

RUC

20 km, 50 levels

12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z

3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z

Climate Forecast System (CFS)

T62 (~200 km), 64 levels, 7 months (20 members)

coupled w/GFDL quasi-global MOM3 ocean model

Ensembles

global 10 members at 00, 06,12,18Z

T126 (~105 km) to 180 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs

28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs)

regional 10 members at 0 and 12Z

48 km, 45 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z

Wave Model

global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon

Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon

Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon

Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon

1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day

North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal)

North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal)

.25 x .25 deg lat/lon

1 level

78 hours/4 times per day

GFDL Hurricane Model

coupled ocean-atmosphere

Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon)

42 levels

126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z

High Resolution Applications

• Six Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) High resolution Window nested runs (all 8 km except 10 km Alaska) - once per day to 48 hours

High Resolution Applications

• Six Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale

Model (NMM) High resolution Window nested runs (all 8 km except 10 km Alaska) - once per day to 48 hours

• Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX) – 12 km, 60 lvl (downscaled

locally to 5km using SmartInit scripts)

– CONUS at 06 and 18Z, AK at 00 and 12Z

– 84-192 h, 6-h frequency

High Resolution Applications

• Fire weather runs for IMET

support – 8 km NMM runs in one of 26 areas of coverage, each about 900 km square up to 4/day; area selected by Boise National Interagency Fire Center -SPC

• Dispersion model run on demand using 4 km NMM for Homeland Security

Fire Weather IMET Support

8 km NMM captures CA coastal windsGreen – model windsRed – observed winds

12 km Eta 8 km NMM

NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems

Version 3.0 April 9, 2004

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Hydrometeorological Prediction Center• Provides forecast, guidance, and analysis products and services in

support of the daily public forecasting activities of the National Weather Service and its customers – Quantitative precipitation forecasts, excessive rainfall, river flood outlook,

and heavy ice & snow guidance– medium-range guidance (Days 3-7)– model diagnostic discussions and associated graphics tools– surface analyses & basic weather forecasts– International Training Desks– Winter Weather products

• Provides tailored weather support to other government agencies in emergency and special situations.

Day 1 QPF - 24 hour accumulated precipitation from HPC

Ocean Prediction Center• Provides atmospheric and oceanographic warning,

forecast, and analysis products and services for thenorth Atlantic and north Pacific

• Atlantic and Pacific high seas– narrative warnings & forecasts to 48 h– graphic analyses and forecasts to 96 h– Offshore warnings– Sea-state analysis and forecast graphics– Weather analysis and forecast narratives– Global quality control of marine observations

Climate Prediction Center• Assesses and predicts the impacts of short-term climate variability,

emphasizing enhanced risks of weather related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.

• Climate Outlooks– Tropical Pacific SSTs– Seasonal and Monthly Temperature and

Precipitation Anomalies– Seasonal Drought Outlooks– Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks– Day 6-10 and 8-14 Outlooks– Hazard Assessments – Day 3-14 – Weather/Climate Connection– UV Index

• Climate monitoring• Oceans, drought, temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, ozone

Aviation Weather Center• Provides aviation warnings and forecasts of hazardous flight

conditions at all levels within domestic and international airspace• Domestic programs

– Area Forecast (FA)– AIRMETs/SIGMETs icing, turbulence, IFR, volcanic ash (WS) – Convective SIGMETs thunderstorms, valid 2 hrs, outlook valid 2-6 hrs

(WST) – CCFP significant thunderstorm outlook (2/4/6 hrs) – Low Level SIGWX prog

• International Products– Gulf of Mexico Area Forecast for Helicopters– Caribbean Area Forecast for General Aviation– International SIGMETs for 7 Oceanic Areas– High Level Significant Weather Charts for 7 ICAO areas– International Flight Folder Documentation Program (IFFDP)

Storm Prediction Center

• Provides timely and accurate forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. The SPC also monitors heavy rain, heavy snow, and fire weather events across the U.S. and issues specific products for those hazards.– Severe Weather Watches– Day 1, 2 and 3 Convective Outlooks– Day 1 and 2 Fire Weather Outlooks– Mesoscale Discussions

Tropical Prediction Center• Provides official NWS forecasts of the movement and

strength of tropical weather systems and issues the appropriate watches and warnings for the US and surrounding area. – Tropical cyclone products include tropical cyclone

forecast/advisories, discussions, strike probabilities, and position estimates

– Tropical marine products include high seas forecasts for the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and south Pacific Oceans and offshore forecasts for for the southwest north Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Isabel

Thursday, 9/18/0312 PM EDT5-day forecast

3-day forecast

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

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Space Environment Center

• Provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth– Monitors solar and geomagnetic activity 24 hours a day, alerts

users when possibly disruptive or dangerous changes occur in the space environment and issues daily forecasts of space environment conditions

– acts as the World Warning Agency for the space environment. – Synthesizes and disseminates information about

past, present, and future conditions in the space environment for space weather users

What Does NCEP Do?

Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Quantitative Precipitation

Forecasts to 5 days Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions

Severe Weather Watches Hurricane Watches and

Warnings Aviation Warnings

(Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to

Seasonal to Interannual) Marine High Seas Forecasts Solar Monitoring –

geomagnetic storm forecasts

Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products

Model Development and Applications, including Data AssimilationOcean Models for Climate Prediction; Coastal Ocean Forecast System; Wave ModelsSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

NCEP Productshttp://www.ncep.noaa.gov

Climate Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Hydrometeorological Prediction Centerhttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Storm Prediction Centerhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Tropical Prediction Centerhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Ocean Prediction Centerhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Aviation Weather Centerhttp://aviationweather.gov/

Space Environment Centerhttp://www.sec.noaa.gov/ncep/