Model Conservation StandardsModel Conservation Standards
Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis
for for
New Single Family and New Single Family and Manufactured Home ConstructionManufactured Home Construction
May 5, 2009May 5, 2009
slide 2slide 3
What Are theWhat Are the “Model Conservation Standards”? “Model Conservation Standards”?
Act requires that Council’s Plan set Act requires that Council’s Plan set forth model conservation standards forth model conservation standards (MCS) for:(MCS) for:– New and existing buildingsNew and existing buildings– Utility and government conservation Utility and government conservation
programsprograms– Other consumer actionsOther consumer actions
slide 3slide 4
Model Conservation Standards – Model Conservation Standards – Decision CriteriaDecision Criteria
The Act requires that the MCS be set The Act requires that the MCS be set at levels that:at levels that:– achieve achieve all regionally cost-effective power all regionally cost-effective power
savingssavings (i.e., cost less than new generation ); (i.e., cost less than new generation ); and,and,
– that are that are economically feasible for economically feasible for consumersconsumers, taking into account financial , taking into account financial assistance that may be made available assistance that may be made available through Bonnevillethrough Bonneville
slide 4
Where Are We?Where Are We?(Thermal Shell Only)(Thermal Shell Only)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Rela
tive U
se
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
1983 1986 1989 1992 2009 MCS
slide 5
Where Are We?Where Are We?Other MeasuresOther Measures
Oregon CodeOregon Code– Requires ~50% of lamps be “CFL” equivalentRequires ~50% of lamps be “CFL” equivalent– Requires use of PTCS duct sealing Requires use of PTCS duct sealing oror higher efficiency higher efficiency
Heat Pump (HSPF 8.5)Heat Pump (HSPF 8.5) Washington CodeWashington Code
– Will require (July 2010) “duct sealing” or interior ductsWill require (July 2010) “duct sealing” or interior ducts Montana & IdahoMontana & Idaho
– ““Scheduled” to adopt 2009 IECC which requires better Scheduled” to adopt 2009 IECC which requires better insulated above grade and below grade walls, duct insulated above grade and below grade walls, duct tightening (0.08 cfm/sq.ft) and limits some “loophole” tightening (0.08 cfm/sq.ft) and limits some “loophole” equipment tradeoffs. equipment tradeoffs.
slide 6slide 9
Analytical Approach – Analytical Approach – Regional Cost EffectivenessRegional Cost Effectiveness
Use forecast of future market prices and Use forecast of future market prices and load shape of savings to establish “energy load shape of savings to establish “energy value”value”
Include T&D Benefits to establish “capacity Include T&D Benefits to establish “capacity value”value”
Incorporate “risk” by adjusting future Incorporate “risk” by adjusting future market value (+/-) based on portfolio market value (+/-) based on portfolio analysis modeling resultsanalysis modeling results
slide 7
Analytical Approach –Analytical Approach –Economic FeasibilityEconomic Feasibility
Use “lowest life cycle cost” code compliant home for each Use “lowest life cycle cost” code compliant home for each heating zone as “base case,” heating zone as “base case,” independent of space independent of space conditioning system type and including lighting and water conditioning system type and including lighting and water heating.heating.
Compute life cycle ownership cost of new home with Compute life cycle ownership cost of new home with increased levels of efficiency, including HVAC, DHW & increased levels of efficiency, including HVAC, DHW & lightinglighting
Use “Monte Carlo” model to identify lowest average “life-Use “Monte Carlo” model to identify lowest average “life-cycle” cost package for each climate zone by testing cycle” cost package for each climate zone by testing multiple (1500+) combinations of values for major input multiple (1500+) combinations of values for major input assumptions, e.g. mortgage rates, retail electric rates, assumptions, e.g. mortgage rates, retail electric rates, marginal tax rates, thermal shell efficiency, HVAC marginal tax rates, thermal shell efficiency, HVAC equipment efficiency, lighting efficiency, etc.equipment efficiency, lighting efficiency, etc.
slide 8
Scope of AnalysisScope of Analysis
New Single Family Construction New Single Family Construction Analysis covers thermal shell, HVAC, Hot Water Heating Analysis covers thermal shell, HVAC, Hot Water Heating
& Lighting improvements to homes with:& Lighting improvements to homes with:– Zonal Electric HeatZonal Electric Heat– Air Source heat pumps Air Source heat pumps – Electric Force-air furnaces with and without central air Electric Force-air furnaces with and without central air
conditioningconditioning Tested:Tested:
– Eleven shell improvement measuresEleven shell improvement measures– Three HVAC equipment efficiency levelsThree HVAC equipment efficiency levels– Three HVAC duct efficiency levelsThree HVAC duct efficiency levels– Four Water Heating Efficiency LevelsFour Water Heating Efficiency Levels– Four lighting efficiency improvement levelsFour lighting efficiency improvement levels
Efficiency Packages – Site Built HomesEfficiency Packages – Site Built Homes
Thermal Shell OptionThermal Shell Option HVAC System OptionHVAC System Option Duct Duct SystemSystem
OptionOption
HVAC HVAC CommissioningCommissioning
OptionOption
Lighting Lighting Power Density Power Density (W) Option(W) Option
DHW DHW SystemSystem
OptionOption
Above Grade Wall R19 Std - R21 Above Grade Wall R19 Std - R21 AdvAdv
ZonalZonal StandardStandard NoNo 1.751.75 EF 0.90EF 0.90
Above Grade Wall R21 Std - R21 Above Grade Wall R21 Std - R21 Std w/R5 Std w/R5
Electric FAF w/o ACElectric FAF w/o AC PTCSPTCS YesYes 1.11.1 EF 0.92EF 0.92
Above Grade Wall R21 Std w/R5 Above Grade Wall R21 Std w/R5 - R30 (SSP)- R30 (SSP)
Electric FAF w/ Central ACElectric FAF w/ Central AC InteriorInterior 0.80.8 EF 0.94EF 0.94
Above Grade Wall R30 SSP - Above Grade Wall R30 SSP - R33 (DBL)R33 (DBL)
Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 13Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 NoneNone 0.60.6 EF 2.2EF 2.2
Attic R38 - R49 AdvancedAttic R38 - R49 Advanced Heat Pump HSPF 8.5/SEER 14Heat Pump HSPF 8.5/SEER 14
Attic R49 Advanced - R60 Attic R49 Advanced - R60 AdvancedAdvanced
Heat Pump HSPF 9.0/SEER 14Heat Pump HSPF 9.0/SEER 14
Below Grade Wall R21 Std to Below Grade Wall R21 Std to R21 w/R5R21 w/R5
Floor R30 - R38 w/12" TrussFloor R30 - R38 w/12" Truss
Infiltration 0.35 ach - 0.20 ach Infiltration 0.35 ach - 0.20 ach w/Heat Recovery Ventilationw/Heat Recovery Ventilation
Slab R0 - R10 Full Slab w/R5 TBSlab R0 - R10 Full Slab w/R5 TB
slide 10
Efficiency Packages – Manufactured Efficiency Packages – Manufactured HomesHomes
Thermal Shell OptionThermal Shell Option HVAC System OptionHVAC System Option Duct Duct SystemSystem
OptionOption
HVAC HVAC CommissioningCommissioning
OptionOption
Lighting Lighting Power Density Power Density (W) Option(W) Option
DHW DHW SystemSystem
OptionOption
Attic R19 - R25Attic R19 - R25 ZonalZonal StandardStandard NoNo 1.751.75 EF 0.90EF 0.90
Attic R25 - R30 Attic R25 - R30 Electric FAF w/o ACElectric FAF w/o AC PTCSPTCS YesYes 1.11.1 EF 0.92EF 0.92
Attic R30 - R38Attic R30 - R38 Electric FAF w/ Central ACElectric FAF w/ Central AC InteriorInterior 0.80.8 EF 0.94EF 0.94
Attic R38 - R49Attic R38 - R49 Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 13Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 NoneNone 0.60.6 EF 2.2EF 2.2
Floor R22 - R33Floor R22 - R33 Heat Pump HSPF 8.5/SEER 14Heat Pump HSPF 8.5/SEER 14
Floor R33 - R44Floor R33 - R44 Heat Pump HSPF 9.0/SEER 14Heat Pump HSPF 9.0/SEER 14
Wall R21 AdvWall R21 Adv
Window Class 30 - Window Class 30 - Class 25Class 25
slide 11slide 10
Life Cycle Cost – Input AssumptionsLife Cycle Cost – Input Assumptions
Mortgage Rate and Term (Based on 1985 – 2007 data)Mortgage Rate and Term (Based on 1985 – 2007 data) Consumer Discount RateConsumer Discount Rate Downpayment (Based on 1985 -2005 data)Downpayment (Based on 1985 -2005 data) Private Mortgage Insurance (for less than 20% down)Private Mortgage Insurance (for less than 20% down) Retail Electricity Price (2007 utility specific average Retail Electricity Price (2007 utility specific average
revenue/kWh)revenue/kWh) Retail Electricity Escalation Rate (6Retail Electricity Escalation Rate (6 thth Plan/Global Insights) Plan/Global Insights) State and Federal Income Tax Rate (2009 Rates)State and Federal Income Tax Rate (2009 Rates) State Property Tax Rate (2008-09 rates)State Property Tax Rate (2008-09 rates) Homeowner’s Insurance RateHomeowner’s Insurance Rate Measure Incremental CostMeasure Incremental Cost Measure Incremental SavingsMeasure Incremental Savings
slide 12slide 11
Life Cycle Cost –Life Cycle Cost – “Uncertainty” Model “Uncertainty” Model
ProblemProblem– All of the major input assumptions are known to vary All of the major input assumptions are known to vary
over a range, yet each new homebuyer will face unique over a range, yet each new homebuyer will face unique combination of financial conditions combination of financial conditions
– ““Point estimates” for each assumption result in Point estimates” for each assumption result in “Yes/No” answers, when the real conclusion is “Yes/No” answers, when the real conclusion is “sometimes OK, sometimes not so OK”“sometimes OK, sometimes not so OK”
Solution Solution – Use distributions of input assumptions that represent Use distributions of input assumptions that represent
the “probability” that a specific value for each input the “probability” that a specific value for each input will occur to compute the likelihood that a specific will occur to compute the likelihood that a specific level of efficiency is economically feasiblelevel of efficiency is economically feasible
Consumer Life Cycle Cost Model Considers UncertaintyConsumer Life Cycle Cost Model Considers Uncertainty
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0.7% 1.2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.9% 4.4% 4.9%
Retai Electricity Price Escalation Rate
Frequency
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
Nominal Morgage Rate (% APR)
Prob
ab
ilit
y (
%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Downpayment (% )
Pro
babil
ity (
%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Retail Rate (2000$/ kWh)
Sh
are
of
Hom
eb
uyers
(%
)0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
10% 21% 27% 31% 39%
Marginal Federal Income Tax Rate
Sh
are
of
Hom
ebu
yers
(%
)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0.0% 5.1% 7.0% 7.1% 7.8% 9.0%
Marginal State Income Tax Rate
Sh
are
of
Hom
ebu
yers
(%
)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Sh
are
of
Ho
meb
uyers
1.14% 1.23% 1.49%
Frequency Chart
Dollars
Mean = $689.000
.011
.022
.032
.043
0
10.75
21.5
32.25
43
($3,509) ($1,131) $1,247 $3,625 $6,003
1,000 Trials 1,000 Displayed
Forecast: WALL R21 STD+R5
Slab R0 - R10 Full Slab w/R5 TB
Infiltration 0.35 ach - 0.20 ach w/Heat Recovery Ventilation
Floor R30 - R38 w/12" Truss
Below Grade Wall R21 Std to R21 w/R5
Heat Pump HSPF 9.0/SEER 14Attic R49 Adv - R60 Adv
Heat Pump HSPF 8.5/SEER 14Attic R38 - R49 Advanced
EF 2.20.6NoneHeat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 13Above Grade Wall R30 SSP - R33 (DBL)
EF 0.940.8InteriorElectric FAF w/ Central ACAbove Grade Wall R21 Std w/R5 - R30 (SSP)
EF 0.921.1YesPTCSElectric FAF w/o ACAbove Grade Wall R21 Std - R21 Std w/R5
EF 0.901.75NoStandardZonalAbove Grade Wall R19 Std - R21 Adv
DHW System Option
Lighting Power Density (W) Option
HVAC Commissioning Option
Duct System OptionHVAC System OptionThermal Shell Option
Slab R0 - R10 Full Slab w/R5 TB
Infiltration 0.35 ach - 0.20 ach w/Heat Recovery Ventilation
Floor R30 - R38 w/12" Truss
Below Grade Wall R21 Std to R21 w/R5
Heat Pump HSPF 9.0/SEER 14Attic R49 Adv - R60 Adv
Heat Pump HSPF 8.5/SEER 14Attic R38 - R49 Advanced
EF 2.20.6NoneHeat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 13Above Grade Wall R30 SSP - R33 (DBL)
EF 0.940.8InteriorElectric FAF w/ Central ACAbove Grade Wall R21 Std w/R5 - R30 (SSP)
EF 0.921.1YesPTCSElectric FAF w/o ACAbove Grade Wall R21 Std - R21 Std w/R5
EF 0.901.75NoStandardZonalAbove Grade Wall R19 Std - R21 Adv
DHW System Option
Lighting Power Density (W) Option
HVAC Commissioning Option
Duct System OptionHVAC System OptionThermal Shell Option
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
$1,223 $1,401 $1,579 $1,758 $1,936
Installed Cost EF 2.2 Water Heater
Frequency
Nu
mb
er
of
Ob
serv
ati
ons
Cost for Input Set 2
Cost for Input Set 1
Distribution of Life Cycle Cost for Distribution of Life Cycle Cost for A Single Upgrade PackageA Single Upgrade Package
240 241 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250
Life Cycle Cost (NPV 2006 000$)
Mean LCCMean LCC
slide 15
Zone 1 – Life Cycle Cost Zone 1 – Life Cycle Cost Distribution for “Best Package”Distribution for “Best Package”
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$66,000 $126,000 $186,000 $246,000 $306,000 $366,000 $426,000 $486,000
Life Cycle Cost (2006$)
Fre
qu
en
cy
slide 16
Base Case Life Cycle Cost – Base Case Life Cycle Cost – Single FamilySingle Family
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Heating Climtate Zone
Lif
e C
ycle
Co
st (
2006
$)
Zonal
Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 13
Elec FAF No AC
Elec FAF SEER 13 Central AC
slide 17
Base Case Life Cycle Cost – Base Case Life Cycle Cost – Manufactured HomeManufactured Home
$94,000
$96,000
$98,000
$100,000
$102,000
$104,000
$106,000
$108,000
$110,000
$112,000
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Heating Climtate Zone
Lif
e C
ycle
Co
st (
2006
$)
Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 13
Elec FAF No AC
Elec FAF SEER 13 Central AC
slide 18
Base Case Annual Energy Use* – Base Case Annual Energy Use* – Single FamilySingle Family
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Heating Climate Zone
En
erg
y U
se (
kWh
/yr)
Zonal
Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 13
Elec FAF No AC
Elec FAF SEER 13 Central AC
*Includes space conditioning, water heating & lighting
slide 19
Base Case Energy Use* – Base Case Energy Use* – Manufactured HomeManufactured Home
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Heating Climate Zone
En
erg
y U
se
(k
Wh
/yr)
Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 13
Elec FAF No AC
Elec FAF SEER 13 Central AC
*Includes space conditioning, water heating & lighting
slide 20
Base vs Lowest Life Cycle Cost – Base vs Lowest Life Cycle Cost – Single FamilySingle Family
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Heating Climate Zone
Lif
e C
ycle
Co
st (
2006
$)
Base-Zonal
Base-HP
Lowest LCC
slide 21
Base vs Lowest Life Cycle Cost – Base vs Lowest Life Cycle Cost – Manufactured HomeManufactured Home
$80,000
$85,000
$90,000
$95,000
$100,000
$105,000
$110,000
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Heating Climate Zone
Lif
e C
ycle
Co
st (
2006
$)
Base
Lowest LCC
slide 22
Single Family – Zone 1Single Family – Zone 1Energy UseEnergy Use
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Base-Zonal Base-HP Lowest LCC All Cost-Effective
Tota
l A
nnual U
se (
kWh/y
r)
Lighting
Water Heating
Space Conditioning
slide 23
Single Family – Zone 2Single Family – Zone 2Energy UseEnergy Use
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Base-Zonal Base-HP* Lowest LCC All Cost-Effective
Tota
l A
nnual U
se (
kWh/y
r) Lighting
Water Heating
Space Conditioning
*Zone 2 HP higher than zonal due to addition of air conditioning
slide 24
Single Family – Zone 3Single Family – Zone 3Energy UseEnergy Use
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Base-Zonal Base-HP Lowest LCC All Cost-Effective
Tota
l A
nnual U
se (
kWh/y
r)
Lighting
Water Heating
Space Conditioning
slide 25
Manufactured Home – Zone 1Manufactured Home – Zone 1Energy UseEnergy Use
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Base Lowest LCC All Cost-Effective
Tota
l A
nnual U
se (
kWh/y
r) Lighting
Water Heating
Space Conditioning
slide 26
Manufactured Home – Zone 2Manufactured Home – Zone 2Energy UseEnergy Use
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Base Lowest LCC All Cost-Effective
Tota
l A
nnual U
se (
kWh/y
r) Lighting
Water Heating
Space Conditioning
slide 27
Manufactured Home – Zone 3Manufactured Home – Zone 3Energy UseEnergy Use
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Base Lowest LCC All Cost-Effective
Tota
l A
nnual U
se (
kWh/y
r) Lighting
Water Heating
Space Conditioning
slide 28
Base vs Lowest Life Cycle Cost – Base vs Lowest Life Cycle Cost – First Cost: Single FamilyFirst Cost: Single Family
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Heating Climate Zone
Fir
st C
ost
(20
06$)
Base-Zonal
Base-HP
Lowest LCC
slide 29
Base vs Lowest Life Cycle Cost – Base vs Lowest Life Cycle Cost – First Cost: Manufactured HomeFirst Cost: Manufactured Home
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Heating Climate Zone
Fir
st C
ost
(20
06$)
Base
Lowest LCC
Zone 1: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Zone 1: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Cost-Effective Thermal Shell PackagesCost-Effective Thermal Shell Packages
ComponentComponent Regionally Cost-Regionally Cost-EffectiveEffective
Minimum Life Minimum Life Cycle CostCycle Cost
Wall –Above GradeWall –Above Grade R21 Advanced FramingR21 Advanced Framing R21 Advanced FramingR21 Advanced Framing
Wall –Below GradeWall –Below Grade R19R19 R19R19
AtticAttic R38 STDR38 STD R38 STDR38 STD
VaultVault R30R30 R30R30
FloorFloor R30R30 R30R30
WindowWindow Class 30Class 30 Class 30Class 30
DoorDoor R5R5 R5R5
SlabSlab R10 Full Under SlabR10 Full Under Slab R10 Full Under SlabR10 Full Under Slab
Wall – Ext. Below grade Wall – Ext. Below grade R10R10 R10R10
Infiltration Infiltration Air Sealing w/HRVAir Sealing w/HRV Current PracticeCurrent Practice
slide 31
Zone 1: Life Cycle Cost MinimumZone 1: Life Cycle Cost MinimumHVAC, Lighting & DHWHVAC, Lighting & DHW
HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts & PTCS System Commissioning & Controls& PTCS System Commissioning & Controls
Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft.Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft. Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater Average Use = 7,600 kWh/yrAverage Use = 7,600 kWh/yr LCC = $307,500LCC = $307,500 LCC Savings = $6,748 ($6870 over HP Base)LCC Savings = $6,748 ($6870 over HP Base) First Cost Increase = $8,602 ($3,655 over HP First Cost Increase = $8,602 ($3,655 over HP
Base)Base) Energy Savings = 8,310 kWh/yr (4,120 kWh/yr Energy Savings = 8,310 kWh/yr (4,120 kWh/yr
over HP Base)over HP Base)
Zone 2: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Zone 2: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Cost-Effective Thermal Shell PackagesCost-Effective Thermal Shell Packages
ComponentComponent Regionally Cost-Regionally Cost-EffectiveEffective
Minimum Life Minimum Life Cycle CostCycle Cost
Wall –Above GradeWall –Above Grade R21 Advanced FramingR21 Advanced Framing R21 Advanced FramingR21 Advanced Framing
Wall –Below GradeWall –Below Grade R19R19 R19R19
AtticAttic R49 AdvancedR49 Advanced R38 STDR38 STD
VaultVault R30R30 R30R30
FloorFloor R30R30 R30R30
WindowWindow Class 30Class 30 Class 30Class 30
DoorDoor R5R5 R5R5
SlabSlab R10 Full Under SlabR10 Full Under Slab R10 Full Under SlabR10 Full Under Slab
Wall – Ext. Below grade Wall – Ext. Below grade R10R10 R10R10
Infiltration Infiltration Air Sealing w/HRVAir Sealing w/HRV Current PracticeCurrent Practice
slide 33
Zone 2: Life Cycle Cost MinimumZone 2: Life Cycle Cost MinimumHVAC, Lighting & DHWHVAC, Lighting & DHW
HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts & PTCS System Commissioning & Controls& PTCS System Commissioning & Controls
Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft.Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft. Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater Average Use = 10,460 kWh/yrAverage Use = 10,460 kWh/yr LCC = $315,460LCC = $315,460 LCC Savings = $9,150 ($10,380 over HP Base)LCC Savings = $9,150 ($10,380 over HP Base) First Cost Increase = $8,600 ($3,655 over HP First Cost Increase = $8,600 ($3,655 over HP
Base)Base) Energy Savings = 9,090 kWh/yr (10,040 over HP Energy Savings = 9,090 kWh/yr (10,040 over HP
Base)Base)
Zone 3: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Zone 3: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Cost-Effective Thermal Shell PackagesCost-Effective Thermal Shell Packages
ComponentComponent Regionally Cost-Regionally Cost-EffectiveEffective
Minimum Life Minimum Life Cycle CostCycle Cost
Wall –Above GradeWall –Above Grade R21 Advanced FramingR21 Advanced Framing R21 Advanced FramingR21 Advanced Framing
Wall –Below GradeWall –Below Grade R19R19 R19R19
AtticAttic R49 AdvancedR49 Advanced R38 STDR38 STD
VaultVault R30R30 R30R30
FloorFloor R30R30 R30R30
WindowWindow Class 30Class 30 Class 30Class 30
DoorDoor R5R5 R5R5
SlabSlab R10 Full Under SlabR10 Full Under Slab R10 Full Under SlabR10 Full Under Slab
Wall – Ext. Below grade Wall – Ext. Below grade R10R10 R10R10
Infiltration Infiltration Air Sealing w/HRVAir Sealing w/HRV Current PracticeCurrent Practice
slide 35
Zone 3: Life Cycle Cost MinimumZone 3: Life Cycle Cost MinimumHVAC, Lighting & DHWHVAC, Lighting & DHW
HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts & PTCS System Commissioning & Controls& PTCS System Commissioning & Controls
Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft.Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft. Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater Average Use = 12,455 kWh/yrAverage Use = 12,455 kWh/yr LCC = $242,300LCC = $242,300 LCC Savings = $13,070 ($14,640 over HP Base)LCC Savings = $13,070 ($14,640 over HP Base) First Cost Increase = $8,600 ($3655 over HP First Cost Increase = $8,600 ($3655 over HP
Base)Base) Energy Savings = 12,300 kWh/yr (12,425 kWh/yr Energy Savings = 12,300 kWh/yr (12,425 kWh/yr
over HP Base)over HP Base)
slide 36
Zone 1 – Manufactured Home Base CaseZone 1 – Manufactured Home Base CaseLowest Life Cycle Cost Code Compliant Lowest Life Cycle Cost Code Compliant
PackagePackage
ComponentComponent Base CaseBase Case
WallWall R19R19
AtticAttic R25R25
Vault - JoistedVault - Joisted R25R25
Vault - TrussedVault - Trussed R25R25
FloorFloor R30R30
WindowWindow Class 35Class 35
DoorDoor R5R5
HVAC System – Heat HVAC System – Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 1313
DHW – EF90DHW – EF90 Average Use (kWh) = Average Use (kWh) =
10,13010,130 First Cost = $8,730First Cost = $8,730 Minimum LCC = Minimum LCC =
$99,750$99,750
slide 37
Zone 1: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Zone 1: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Cost-Effective Thermal Shell PackagesCost-Effective Thermal Shell Packages
ComponentComponent Regionally Cost-Regionally Cost-EffectiveEffective
Minimum Life Cycle Minimum Life Cycle CostCost
Wall –Above GradeWall –Above Grade R21 AdvancedR21 Advanced R21 AdvancedR21 Advanced
AtticAttic R38R38 R38R38
VaultVault R30R30 R30R30
FloorFloor R33R33 R33R33
WindowWindow Class 30Class 30 Class 30Class 30
DoorDoor R5R5 R5R5
slide 38
Zone 1: Manufactured Home Life Cycle Zone 1: Manufactured Home Life Cycle Cost MinimumCost Minimum
HVAC, Lighting & DHWHVAC, Lighting & DHW HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts
& PTCS System Commissioning & Controls& PTCS System Commissioning & Controls Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft.Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft. Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater Average Use = 5,430 kWh/yrAverage Use = 5,430 kWh/yr LCC = $93,705LCC = $93,705 LCC Savings = $6,045LCC Savings = $6,045 First Cost Increase = $2,175First Cost Increase = $2,175 Energy Savings = 4,700 kWh/yrEnergy Savings = 4,700 kWh/yr
slide 39
Zone 2 – Manufactured Home Base CaseZone 2 – Manufactured Home Base CaseLowest Life Cycle Cost Code Compliant Lowest Life Cycle Cost Code Compliant
PackagePackage
ComponentComponent Base CaseBase Case
WallWall R19R19
AtticAttic R25R25
Vault - JoistedVault - Joisted R25R25
Vault - TrussedVault - Trussed R25R25
FloorFloor R30R30
WindowWindow Class 35Class 35
DoorDoor R5R5
HVAC System – Heat HVAC System – Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 1313
DHW – EF90DHW – EF90 Average Use (kWh) = Average Use (kWh) =
14,53014,530 First Cost = $8,730First Cost = $8,730 Minimum LCC = Minimum LCC =
$104,170$104,170
slide 40
Zone 2: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Zone 2: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Cost-Effective Thermal Shell PackagesCost-Effective Thermal Shell Packages
ComponentComponent Regionally Cost-Regionally Cost-EffectiveEffective
Minimum Life Cycle Minimum Life Cycle CostCost
Wall –Above GradeWall –Above Grade R21 AdvancedR21 Advanced R21 AdvancedR21 Advanced
AtticAttic R38R38 R38R38
VaultVault R30R30 R30R30
FloorFloor R33R33 R33R33
WindowWindow Class 30Class 30 Class 30Class 30
DoorDoor R5R5 R5R5
slide 41
Zone 2: Manufactured Home Life Cycle Zone 2: Manufactured Home Life Cycle Cost MinimumCost Minimum
HVAC, Lighting & DHWHVAC, Lighting & DHW HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts
& PTCS System Commissioning & Controls& PTCS System Commissioning & Controls Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft.Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft. Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater Average Use = 7,165 kWh/yrAverage Use = 7,165 kWh/yr LCC = $95,625LCC = $95,625 LCC Savings = $8,545LCC Savings = $8,545 First Cost Increase = $2,175First Cost Increase = $2,175 Energy Savings = 7,360 kWh/yrEnergy Savings = 7,360 kWh/yr
slide 42
Zone 3 – Manufactured Home Base CaseZone 3 – Manufactured Home Base CaseLowest Life Cycle Cost Code Compliant Lowest Life Cycle Cost Code Compliant
PackagePackage
ComponentComponent Base CaseBase Case
WallWall R19R19
AtticAttic R25R25
Vault - JoistedVault - Joisted R25R25
Vault - TrussedVault - Trussed R25R25
FloorFloor R30R30
WindowWindow Class 35Class 35
DoorDoor R5R5
HVAC System – Heat HVAC System – Heat Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER Pump HSPF 7.7/SEER 1313
DHW – EF90DHW – EF90 Average Use (kWh) = Average Use (kWh) =
17,16017,160 First Cost = $8,730First Cost = $8,730 Minimum LCC = Minimum LCC =
$103,075$103,075
slide 43
Zone 3: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Zone 3: Life Cycle Cost Minimum & Regional Cost-Effective Thermal Shell PackagesCost-Effective Thermal Shell Packages
ComponentComponent Regionally Cost-Regionally Cost-EffectiveEffective
Minimum Life Minimum Life Cycle CostCycle Cost
Wall –Above GradeWall –Above Grade R21 AdvancedR21 Advanced R21 AdvancedR21 Advanced
AtticAttic R49R49 R49R49
VaultVault R30R30 R30R30
FloorFloor R44R44 R44R44
WindowWindow Class 30Class 30 Class 30Class 30
DoorDoor R5R5 R5R5
slide 44
Zone 3: Manufactured Home Life Cycle Zone 3: Manufactured Home Life Cycle Cost MinimumCost Minimum
HVAC, Lighting & DHWHVAC, Lighting & DHW HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts HSPF 7.7 /SEER 13 Heat Pump w/ Interior Ducts
& PTCS System Commissioning & Controls& PTCS System Commissioning & Controls Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft.Lighting Power Density = 0.6 Watts/sq.ft. Heat Pump Water HeaterHeat Pump Water Heater Average Use = 8,175 kWh/yrAverage Use = 8,175 kWh/yr LCC = $91,230LCC = $91,230 LCC Savings = $11,845LCC Savings = $11,845 First Cost Increase = $2,375First Cost Increase = $2,375 Energy Savings = 8,985 kWh/yrEnergy Savings = 8,985 kWh/yr
slide 45
Background SlidesBackground Slides
slide 46slide 2
What is the “Surcharge Policy”?What is the “Surcharge Policy”?
The Council’s Plan must contain a The Council’s Plan must contain a recommendation to the Administrator recommendation to the Administrator regarding whether the a utility’s failure to regarding whether the a utility’s failure to achieve MCS savings should be subject to a achieve MCS savings should be subject to a surcharge on all of a its power purchases surcharge on all of a its power purchases from Bonnevillefrom Bonneville
Surcharges may not be less than 10%, nor Surcharges may not be less than 10%, nor greater than 50% of Bonneville’s rate.greater than 50% of Bonneville’s rate.
slide 47slide 5
The MCS - A Short History:The MCS - A Short History:Chapter 1Chapter 1
Council adopted first MCS April 27, 1983Council adopted first MCS April 27, 1983– Established space heating performance targets for new Established space heating performance targets for new
electrically heated residences for three Northwest electrically heated residences for three Northwest Climate ZonesClimate Zones
» Less than 6,000 Heating Degree Day (HDD)Less than 6,000 Heating Degree Day (HDD)» 6000 – 8000 HDD*6000 – 8000 HDD*» More than 8000 HDD*More than 8000 HDD*
– MCS requirements were 40% better than toughest MCS requirements were 40% better than toughest existing energy codes in regionexisting energy codes in region
– Recommended that MCS be adopted by January 1, Recommended that MCS be adopted by January 1, 1986 or BPA impose 10% surcharge on utilities serving 1986 or BPA impose 10% surcharge on utilities serving non-complying areasnon-complying areas
*Now Zone 2 = 6000 – 7499 HDD, Zone 3 = 7500 HDD and greater
slide 48slide 6
The MCS – A Short History: The MCS – A Short History: Chapter 2Chapter 2
1983 – 19911983 – 1991– Council sued by Seattle Master Builders contesting Council sued by Seattle Master Builders contesting
legality and level of the MCSlegality and level of the MCS» Conclusion – Ninth Circuit Rules for CouncilConclusion – Ninth Circuit Rules for Council
– Utilities demand that Bonneville sponsor “R&D” Utilities demand that Bonneville sponsor “R&D” project (RSPD) to test “cost-effectiveness” of MCSproject (RSPD) to test “cost-effectiveness” of MCS
» Conclusion – Bonneville finds MCS cost-effectiveConclusion – Bonneville finds MCS cost-effective
– Bonneville, following Council’s Plan, sponsors “early Bonneville, following Council’s Plan, sponsors “early code” adoption and “energy efficient” new homes code” adoption and “energy efficient” new homes marketing program (Super Good Cents)marketing program (Super Good Cents)
» Conclusion – Tacoma adopts MCS, the Region follows . . .Conclusion – Tacoma adopts MCS, the Region follows . . .
slide 49slide 7
The MCS – A Short History: The MCS – A Short History: Chapter 3Chapter 3
Current StatusCurrent Status– Oregon and Washington have energy codes that meet Oregon and Washington have energy codes that meet
or exceed the original MCSor exceed the original MCS– Montana has adopted the 2003 International Energy Montana has adopted the 2003 International Energy
Conservation Code (IECC)Conservation Code (IECC)– Idaho jurisdictions commenced enforcement of 2006 Idaho jurisdictions commenced enforcement of 2006
the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) on the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) on January 1, 2008January 1, 2008
– The IECC codes require efficiency levels that are The IECC codes require efficiency levels that are within 15% of the original MCS, meeting Council’s within 15% of the original MCS, meeting Council’s 85% “achievability” target.85% “achievability” target.
slide 50slide 8
The MCS – A Short History: The MCS – A Short History: Chapter 4Chapter 4
It’s Time for Another Cost-Effectiveness ReviewIt’s Time for Another Cost-Effectiveness Review Issues:Issues:
– Are there additional thermal shell measures that are Are there additional thermal shell measures that are “regionally cost-effective” and “economically “regionally cost-effective” and “economically feasible”? (5feasible”? (5thth Plan did not identify any) Plan did not identify any)
– Are there non-thermal shell measures (e.g. HVAC Are there non-thermal shell measures (e.g. HVAC equipment, lighting, water heating, appliances) that equipment, lighting, water heating, appliances) that should be considered for inclusion?should be considered for inclusion?
– Should the MCS consider carbon mitigation cost risk Should the MCS consider carbon mitigation cost risk independent of the incorporating future energy cost into independent of the incorporating future energy cost into the economic analysis?the economic analysis?
slide 51
Probability Distribution ofProbability Distribution ofNominal Mortgage Rates*Nominal Mortgage Rates*
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Nominal Morgage Rate (% APR)
Pro
babili
ty (
%)
*Source: Federal Housing Finance Board Monthly Interest Rate Survey APR for new homes 1985-2007
Mean = 6.2%Mean = 6.2%
slide 52
Probability Distribution of Probability Distribution of Downpayment Amount*Downpayment Amount*
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Downpayment (%)
Pro
babili
ty (
%)
Mean = 27%Mean = 27%
*Source: Federal Housing Finance Board Monthly Interest Rate Survey for Oregon
slide 53
Probability Distribution of Electricity Probability Distribution of Electricity Price Escalation Rates – Zone 1Price Escalation Rates – Zone 1
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
0.69
%
0.97
%
1.24
%
1.52
%
1.80
%
2.08
%
2.36
%
2.64
%
2.91
%
3.19
%
3.47
%
3.75
%
4.03
%
4.30
%
4.58
%
4.86
%
5.14
%
Nominal Annual Electricity Price Escalation Rate
Pro
babili
ty (
%)
Source: Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil Draft 6th Power Plan
slide 54
Probability Distribution of Electricity Probability Distribution of Electricity Price Escalation Rates – Zone 2Price Escalation Rates – Zone 2
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
0.87
%
1.13
%
1.40
%
1.66
%
1.93
%
2.19
%
2.46
%
2.72
%
2.99
%
3.25
%
3.52
%
3.78
%
4.05
%
4.31
%
4.58
%
4.84
%
5.11
%
Nominal Annual Electricity Price Escalation Rate
Pro
babili
ty (
%)
Source: Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil Draft 6th Power Plan
slide 55
Probability Distribution of Electricity Probability Distribution of Electricity Price Escalation Rates – Zone 3Price Escalation Rates – Zone 3
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%
0.46
%
0.72
%
0.98
%
1.24
%
1.50
%
1.76
%
2.02
%
2.28
%
2.54
%
2.79
%
3.05
%
3.31
%
3.57
%
3.83
%
4.09
%
4.35
%
4.61
%
Nominal Annual Electricity Price Escalation Rate
Pro
babili
ty (
%)
Source: Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil Draft 6th Power Plan
slide 56
Probability Distribution of Base Probability Distribution of Base Year Electricity Prices – Zone 1Year Electricity Prices – Zone 1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$0.0
22
$0.0
35
$0.0
41
$0.0
42
$0.0
44
$0.0
47
$0.0
48
$0.0
49
$0.0
51
$0.0
52
$0.0
53
$0.0
54
$0.0
55
$0.0
56
$0.0
58
$0.0
63
$0.0
73
Retail Rate (2006$/ kWh)
Share
of
Hom
ebuye
rs (
%)
Source: Energy Information Administration residential retail revenue and customer count data for 2007. Shares based on share of new residential customers added between 2000 and 2007.
slide 57
Probability Distribution of Base Probability Distribution of Base Year Electricity Prices Zone 2Year Electricity Prices Zone 2
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
$0.0
29
$0.0
31
$0.0
42
$0.0
45
$0.0
48
$0.0
49
$0.0
50
$0.0
52
$0.0
53
$0.0
56
$0.0
56
$0.0
57
$0.0
59
$0.0
64
$0.0
68
$0.0
77
Retail Rate (2006$/ kWh)
Share
of
Hom
ebuye
rs (
%)
Source: Energy Information Administration residential retail revenue and customer count data for 2007. Shares based on share of new residential customers added between 2000 and 2007.
slide 58
Probability Distribution of Base Probability Distribution of Base Year Electricity Prices Zone 3Year Electricity Prices Zone 3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
$0.0
43
$0.0
46
$0.0
46
$0.0
47
$0.0
49
$0.0
49
$0.0
51
$0.0
59
$0.0
59
$0.0
60
$0.0
64
$0.0
68
$0.0
68
$0.0
69
$0.0
71
$0.0
72
$0.0
73
Retail Rate (2006$/ kWh)
Share
of
Hom
ebuye
rs (
%)
Source: Energy Information Administration residential retail revenue and customer count data for 2007. Shares based on share of new residential customers added between 2000 and 2007.
slide 59
Probability Distribution of Marginal Probability Distribution of Marginal Federal Income Tax Rates – Zone 1 Federal Income Tax Rates – Zone 1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
10% 15% 20% 25% 26% 28% 29% 33% 35%
Marginal Federal Income Tax Rate
Share
of
Hom
ebuye
rs (
%)
Source: Internal Revenue ServiceIndividual Tax Returns Data for 2007
slide 60
Probability Distribution of Marginal Probability Distribution of Marginal Federal Income Tax Rates – Zone 2Federal Income Tax Rates – Zone 2
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
10% 15% 20% 25% 26% 28% 29% 33% 35%
Marginal Federal Income Tax Rate
Share
of
Hom
ebuye
rs (
%)
Source: Internal Revenue ServiceIndividual Tax Returns Data for 2007
slide 61
Probability Distribution of Marginal Probability Distribution of Marginal Federal Income Tax Rates – Zone 3 Federal Income Tax Rates – Zone 3
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
10% 15% 20% 25% 26% 28% 29% 33% 35%
Marginal Federal Income Tax Rate
Share
of
Hom
ebuye
rs (
%)
Source: Internal Revenue ServiceIndividual Tax Returns Data for 2007
slide 62
Probability Distribution of Marginal Probability Distribution of Marginal State Income Tax Rates - IdahoState Income Tax Rates - Idaho
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
5.1% 7.1% 7.8%
Marginal State Income Tax Rate
Share
of
Hom
ebuye
rs (
%)
Source: Based on Internal Revenue Service for Idaho Individual Tax Returns Data for 2007
slide 63
Probability Distribution of Marginal Probability Distribution of Marginal State Income Tax Rates - MontanaState Income Tax Rates - Montana
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
3.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0%
Marginal State Income Tax Rate
Share
of
Hom
ebuye
rs (
%)
Source: Based on Internal Revenue Service for Montana Individual Tax Returns Data for 2007
slide 64
Probability Distribution of Marginal Probability Distribution of Marginal State Income Tax Rates - OregonState Income Tax Rates - Oregon
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
7.0% 9.0%
Marginal State Income Tax Rate
Share
of
Hom
ebuye
rs (
%)
Source: Based on Internal Revenue Service for Oregon Individual Tax Returns Data for 2007
slide 65
Probability Distribution of Probability Distribution of Property Tax RatesProperty Tax Rates
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3
Sh
are
of
Ho
me
bu
ye
rs
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
Pro
pe
rty
Ta
x R
ateShare
Rate
Source: Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington Departments of Revenue Property Tax Statistics Fiscal Year 2008-2009
slide 66
Private Mortgage Insurance Private Mortgage Insurance AssumptionsAssumptions
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Downpayment Amount
PM
I (S
hare
of
Loan
Am
ou
nt)
http://www.westga.edu/~bquest/1997/costof.html
slide 67
Probability Distribution of Incremental Probability Distribution of Incremental Cost for HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 Heat PumpCost for HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 Heat Pump
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
$3,015 $3,387 $3,759 $4,131 $4,502
Cost to Consumer (2006$)
Pro
babili
ty
Mean = $3884Mean = $3884
Source: Regional Technical Forum
slide 68
Probability Distribution of HSPF 8.5/ Probability Distribution of HSPF 8.5/ SEER 14 Air Source Heat Pump CostSEER 14 Air Source Heat Pump Cost
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
$5,208 $5,726 $6,244 $6,762 $7,280
Cost to Consumer (2006$)
Pro
bab
ility
Mean = $5290Mean = $5290
Source: Regional Technical Forum
slide 69
Probability Distribution of HSPF 9.0/ Probability Distribution of HSPF 9.0/ SEER 14 Air Source Heat Pump CostSEER 14 Air Source Heat Pump Cost
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
$5,464 $6,085 $6,707 $7,328 $7,949
Cost to Consumer (2006$)
Pro
bab
ility
Mean = $5580Mean = $5580
Source: Regional Technical Forum
slide 70
Probability Distribution of Duct Probability Distribution of Duct Sealing CostSealing Cost
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
$226 $246 $266 $286 $306 $326 $346 $366 $386 $406
Cost to Consumer
Pro
babili
ty
Mean = $325Mean = $325
Source: Regional Technical Forum
slide 71
Probability Distribution of Heat Probability Distribution of Heat Pump System Commissioning CostPump System Commissioning Cost
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
$200 $205 $210 $215 $220 $225 $230 $235 $240 $245
Cost to Consumer
Pro
babili
ty
Mean = $210Mean = $210
Source: Regional Technical Forum
slide 72
Heat Pump Water Heater Heat Pump Water Heater Installed CostInstalled Cost
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
$1,223 $1,401 $1,579 $1,758 $1,936
Installed Cost EF 2.2 Water Heater
Frequency
Mean = $1506Mean = $1506
slide 73
Base Case Water Heater Base Case Water Heater Installed CostInstalled Cost
0
50
100
150
200
250
$450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800
Installed Cost EF 0.90 Water Heater
Frequency
Mean = $644Mean = $644
slide 74
Zone 1 - Base CaseZone 1 - Base CaseLowest Life Cycle Cost Code Lowest Life Cycle Cost Code
Compliant PackageCompliant Package
ComponentComponent Base CaseBase Case
Wall –Above GradeWall –Above Grade R21 STDR21 STD
Wall –Below GradeWall –Below Grade R19R19
AtticAttic R38 STDR38 STD
Vault - JoistedVault - Joisted R30R30
Vault - TrussedVault - Trussed R38R38
FloorFloor R30R30
WindowWindow Class 35Class 35
DoorDoor R5R5
SlabSlab R10R10
Wall – Ext. Below Wall – Ext. Below grade grade
R10R10
HVAC System – ZonalHVAC System – Zonal DHW – EF90DHW – EF90 Average Use (kWh) = Average Use (kWh) =
17,575 17,575 First Cost = $2,333First Cost = $2,333 Minimum LCC = Minimum LCC =
$314,247$314,247
slide 75
Zone 2 - Base CaseZone 2 - Base CaseLowest Life Cycle Cost Code Lowest Life Cycle Cost Code
Compliant PackageCompliant PackageComponentComponent Base CaseBase Case
Wall –Above GradeWall –Above Grade R21 STDR21 STD
Wall –Below GradeWall –Below Grade R19R19
AtticAttic R38 STDR38 STD
Vault - JoistedVault - Joisted R30R30
Vault - TrussedVault - Trussed R38R38
FloorFloor R30R30
WindowWindow Class 35Class 35
DoorDoor R5R5
SlabSlab R10R10
Wall – Ext. Below Wall – Ext. Below grade grade
R10R10
HVAC System – ZonalHVAC System – Zonal DHW – EF90DHW – EF90 Average Use (kWh) – Average Use (kWh) –
19,55019,550 First Cost = $2,300First Cost = $2,300 Minimum LCC = Minimum LCC =
$324,610$324,610
slide 76
Zone 3 - Base CaseZone 3 - Base CaseLowest Life Cycle Cost Code Lowest Life Cycle Cost Code
Compliant PackageCompliant PackageComponentComponent Base CaseBase Case
Wall –Above GradeWall –Above Grade R21 STDR21 STD
Wall –Below GradeWall –Below Grade R19R19
AtticAttic R38 STDR38 STD
Vault - JoistedVault - Joisted R30R30
Vault - TrussedVault - Trussed R38R38
FloorFloor R30R30
WindowWindow Class 35Class 35
DoorDoor R5R5
SlabSlab R10R10
Wall – Ext. Below Wall – Ext. Below grade grade
R10R10
HVAC System – ZonalHVAC System – Zonal DHW – EF90DHW – EF90 Average Use (kWh) – Average Use (kWh) –
26,750 kWh/yr26,750 kWh/yr First Cost - $2,300First Cost - $2,300 Minimum LCC = Minimum LCC =
$255,370$255,370