MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19
Tracker – September 11
by Tom Lake
COVID-19 Trends and Developments
• The COVID-19 outbreak in India shows no sign of abating, with the country having
registered a record-high number of new COVID-19 cases on September 10, with
96,551 added to the country’s total. This was more new cases than the next three
countries with the highest new case number on September 10 (Brazil, the US, and
Argentina) combined. On the same day, India also recorded its highest number of
COVID-19 fatalities in a 24 hour period, with 1,209 registered on the day.
• Saudi Arabia recorded its lowest 24 hour new cases total since April 16 on
September 10, with 708 coronavirus cases added to the total. The slowdown in case
growth in the Middle Eastern nation is an ongoing trend, with the average daily
increase in cases across the past week at its lowest on September 10 since April 19.
• The number of confirmed cases in Israel climbed by 4,429 on September 10, the
highest daily increase on record. This increase meant Israel recorded the highest
number of new cases per capita of any country worldwide on September 10, with 50
new cases recorded per 100,000 of population on that day alone.
Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)
Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 11. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Global
Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)
Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)
Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 0945BST September 11. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain,
Sweden and the UK not available.
Country Confirmed
Cases
New Cases in Past 24
Hrs
Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past 24 Hrs
Mortality Rate (per
100 recorded
cases)
Rate of Increase in Cases
(7-day average)
Global 28,161,885 298,152 19,004,937 909,479 5,793 3.2 0.98%
Argentina 524,198 11,905 390,098 10,907 249 2.1 2.17%
Australia 26,564 40 23,215 797 9 3.0 0.23%
Belgium 90,568 877 N/A 9,917 0 10.9 0.65%
Brazil 4,238,446 40,557 3,657,701 129,522 983 3.1 0.68%
Canada 136,956 821 120,848 9,213 9 6.7 0.47%
Chile 428,669 1,642 401,356 11,781 79 2.7 0.41%
China 90,127 27 85,005 4,733 0 5.3 0.02%
Colombia 694,664 7,813 569,479 22,275 222 3.2 1.14%
France 392,243 8,951 89,468 30,819 14 7.9 2.16%
Germany 258,149 1,716 231,172 9,345 3 3.6 0.53%
Hong Kong 4,913 12 N/A 99 0 2.0 0.22%
India 4,562,414 96,551 3,542,663 76,271 1,209 1.7 2.13%
Iran 395,488 2,063 340,842 22,798 129 5.8 0.54%
Italy 283,180 1,597 211,885 35,587 10 12.6 0.53%
Japan 73,916 652 64,489 1,416 4 1.9 0.72%
Mexico 652,364 5,043 541,804 69,649 600 10.7 0.80%
Peru 702,776 6,586 536,959 30,236 113 4.3 0.97%
Russia 1,042,836 5,310 865,646 18,207 127 1.7 0.50%
Saudi Arabia 323,720 708 299,998 4,189 24 1.3 0.24%
Singapore 57,229 63 56,558 27 0 0.05 0.08%
South Africa 644,438 2,007 573,003 15,265 97 2.4 0.26%
South Korea 21,919 176 17,616 350 4 1.6 0.72%
Spain 554,143 10,764 N/A 29,699 71 5.4 1.83%
Sweden 86,194 314 N/A 5,843 1 6.8 0.25%
UK 358,138 2,919 N/A 41,608 14 11.6 0.73%
US 6,396,551 35,286 2,403,511 191,766 907 3.0 0.56%
Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)
The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from
COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective
country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each
country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Argentina
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Australia
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Belgium
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Brazil
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Canada
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Chile
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
China
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Colombia
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
France
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Germany
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Hong Kong
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
India
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Iran
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Italy
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Japan
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Mexico
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Peru
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Russia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Saudi Arabia
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Singapore
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
South Africa
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
South Korea
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Spain
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
Sweden
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 11, and represents full-
day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.
Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 10. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, Brazil, US, Argentina, Spain,
France, Colombia, Peru, Russia, Mexico.
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
UK
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
10-Jun 10-Jul 10-Aug 10-Sep
US
Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 10. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Israel, Bahrain, Argentina,
Costa Rica, Spain, Montenegro, Peru, Brazil, Kuwait, Panama. Countries with population below 100k excluded.
Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of
State’s Population
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 10. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain, Panama,
Chile, Kuwait, Peru, Brazil, US, Oman, Israel. Countries with population below 100k excluded.
Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 10. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: India, Brazil, US,
Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Iran, Russia, Indonesia, Peru.
Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 10. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Argentina, Costa Rica,
Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, US. Countries with population below 100k excluded.
Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head
of State’s Population
Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from September 10. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium, Spain,
Chile, Bolivia, UK, Brazil, Ecuador, Italy, US. Countries with population below 100k excluded.