Michael Krug
Freie Universität BerlinEnvironmental Policy Research Centre
EURONEST Workshop on Eastern Partnership Prospects on Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
Vilnius - 19 September 2013
The role of renewable energy in achieving a balanced energy mix
My presentation
• Opportunities and challenges of increased renewable energy supply in the energy mix
• Current and future energy mix of the EU
• Addressing the challenge of intermittency
• Addressing the challenge of sustainability
• Conclusions
Opportunities and challenges of increased renewable energy supply in the energy mix
• GHG savings and otherenvironmental benefits
• Diversification of the energy mixand improved energy security
• Mitigate energy supply shortagesand price shocks
• Contribution to reduce energyprices
• Alleviate trade deficits arising fromfossil fuel imports
• Development of entrepreneurshipand innovation
• Creation of added value andemployment in the region
• Intermittency
• Competitiveness
• Affordability for consumers
• Environmental and social sustainability
• Social acceptance
• Supply chain and logistics(biomass)
Opportunities Challenges
Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC
• Overall target for EU: 20% share of renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020
• Binding national overall renewable energy targets (2020); interim targets
• Binding national target of 10% renewable energy in the transport sector (2020)
• National Renewable Energy Action Plans
• Cooperation mechanisms (stat. transfers, joint support schemes & projects, project with third countries )
• Provisions referring to administrative procedures, regulations, information, training, grid access etc.
• Comprehensive sustainability scheme for biofuels and bioliquids
Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption
Source: Eurostat 2013, April 2013
Energy mix of the EU
Source: Eurostat 2013, April 2013
Source: European Commission 2013
Import dependency
Source: Eurostat 2013, April 2013
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Source: European Commission 2011
EU decarbonisation scenarios – 2030 and 2050 range of fuel shares in primary energy concumption compared to 2005 outcome (%)
Intermittency challenge: Electricity shares of wind and solar power per Member State in 2010 and 2020
Source: European Commission 2013
Flexibility options to accommodate high shares of VRE
Electricity supply system
Electricity storage
Source: adapted from Ohlhorst 2013
Intermittency challenge of renewable energy
Particular priority to be given
To more determined action on the demand side (…) including the drawing up of smart grids and smart meters (…);
The Commission providing guidance on capacity mechanisms and on addressing unplanned power flows;
The presentation by the Commission of guidance on efficient and cost-effective support schemes for RE and on ensuring adequate generation capacity (…).
Conclusions of the Council of the European Union on Renewable Energy (December 2012)
Sustainability challenge of renewable energy
Conclusions of the Council of the European Union on Renewable Energy (December 2012)
“The challenge in developing RES not only needs to focus on making the relevant technologies more attractive and cost-efficient, but also to ensure that their entire lifecycle remains sustainable. Therefore, further consideration needs to be given to the economic, environmental and social aspects of production and use of RES.
In this context, the Commission's recent proposal on indirect land use change related to biofuels and bioliquids should be given early and full attention.
In particular the expected rise in the use of biomass in the coming years heightens the need to consider the sustainability dimensions of the use of sensitive biomass resources”
Pellet imports from non EU countries (tons/month)
Source: Jossart 2013, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Eurostat
Wood pellet trade streams > 10 ktonnes (2010)
Source: Jossart 2013, GDF Suez
• According to Art. 194(2) of the Lisbon Treaty Member States determine their energy mix, but the EU is indirectly influencing the energy mixes.
• The energy mix of the EU as a whole is well balanced. The energy mixes of individual Member States vary significantly.
• The EU is committed to reduce GHG emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. The EU argues that all types of low carbon technologies will be needed to achieve this goal. Regardless of scenario choice, the biggest share in the energy mix is expected to come from RES.
• Intermittency of increasing wind and solar energy poses key challenges to electric power systems. There are various flexibility options. The Commission is preparing guidance.
• Bioenergy is the most versatile of the RES. Sustainable bioenergy systemshave a key role to play to balance VRE.
Conclusions I
• The use of RES is not sustainable per se and its promotion has to be performed with a sense of proportion.
• Policy development should consider full life-cycle impacts as well as direct and preferably indirect effects.
• More intensive development of RES is likely to lead to increased use of biomass. The most promising bioenergy pathways from a Sustainable Development perspective are those that use locally available by-productsand residues as well as biogenic waste streams and which employ highly efficient conversion processes and technologies.
• There is a need for a consistent sustainability framework for bioenergy at EU level.
Conclusions II
Thank you very much for your attention!
Back up slides for the discussion
Sustainability scheme for biofuels and bioliquids
Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC)
• Contains binding sustainability standards for transport biofuels and bioliquids to be met in order to count towards the mandatory RES targets and to benefit from financial support.
Minimum lifecycle GHG savings of 35% (2017: 50%; 60% for new installations)
Raw material not to be obtained from land with high biodiversity value
No conversion of land with high carbon stock (forested areas, wetland, peat land)
Agricultural raw material cultivated in the EC to comply with Cross Compliance rules
Complementary reporting requirements (soil, water, air quality, social criteria)
Mass balance system to verify compliance
• EU Commission proposal to limit global land conversion for biofuel
production and to raise the climate benefits of biofuels COM(2012)595
Limit the contribution of conventional food-based biofuels (i.e. from cereals, sugars, oil crops) to the renewable energy target in transport to 5%
Increase of the minimum GHG saving threshold for new installations to 60% (2014)
Indirect land use change to be included in the reporting of fuel suppliers and MS
Incentives to advanced biofuels with no or low land use change: algae, straw, waste resources etc. (multiplication factor of 4!)
Sustainability scheme for biofuels and bioliquids (II)
Sustainability scheme for solid and gaseous biomass used in electricity, heating and cooling
Biomass Sustainability Report COM 2010(11)
Non-binding recommendations
In principle the same criteria as for biofuels/bioliquids
Harmonised calculation methodology for lifecycle GHG emissions, GHG accounting to include end use conversion;
GHG savings criterion not to be applied to wastes
Support schemes to differentiate in favour of plants with high conversion efficiencies
Sustainability schemes shall apply only to larger energy producers
Updated report pending; legislative proposal before the end of the mandate of the current Commission (2014) ?
Source: Rykmanns 2011, EC 2010
GHG savings of selected bioenergy routes
80%
Current energy mix of the EU