Michael Krug

Freie Universität BerlinEnvironmental Policy Research Centre

EURONEST Workshop on Eastern Partnership Prospects on Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

Vilnius - 19 September 2013

The role of renewable energy in achieving a balanced energy mix

My presentation

• Opportunities and challenges of increased renewable energy supply in the energy mix

• Current and future energy mix of the EU

• Addressing the challenge of intermittency

• Addressing the challenge of sustainability

• Conclusions

Opportunities and challenges of increased renewable energy supply in the energy mix

• GHG savings and otherenvironmental benefits

• Diversification of the energy mixand improved energy security

• Mitigate energy supply shortagesand price shocks

• Contribution to reduce energyprices

• Alleviate trade deficits arising fromfossil fuel imports

• Development of entrepreneurshipand innovation

• Creation of added value andemployment in the region

• Intermittency

• Competitiveness

• Affordability for consumers

• Environmental and social sustainability

• Social acceptance

• Supply chain and logistics(biomass)

Opportunities Challenges

Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC

• Overall target for EU: 20% share of renewable energy in final energy consumption by 2020

• Binding national overall renewable energy targets (2020); interim targets

• Binding national target of 10% renewable energy in the transport sector (2020)

• National Renewable Energy Action Plans

• Cooperation mechanisms (stat. transfers, joint support schemes & projects, project with third countries )

• Provisions referring to administrative procedures, regulations, information, training, grid access etc.

• Comprehensive sustainability scheme for biofuels and bioliquids

Share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption

Source: Eurostat 2013, April 2013

Energy mix of the EU

Source: Eurostat 2013, April 2013

Source: European Commission 2013

Import dependency

Source: Eurostat 2013, April 2013

EU Energy Roadmap 2050

Source: European Commission 2011

EU decarbonisation scenarios – 2030 and 2050 range of fuel shares in primary energy concumption compared to 2005 outcome (%)

Intermittency challenge: Electricity shares of wind and solar power per Member State in 2010 and 2020

Source: European Commission 2013

Flexibility options to accommodate high shares of VRE

Electricity supply system

Electricity storage

Source: adapted from Ohlhorst 2013

Intermittency challenge of renewable energy

Particular priority to be given

To more determined action on the demand side (…) including the drawing up of smart grids and smart meters (…);

The Commission providing guidance on capacity mechanisms and on addressing unplanned power flows;

The presentation by the Commission of guidance on efficient and cost-effective support schemes for RE and on ensuring adequate generation capacity (…).

Conclusions of the Council of the European Union on Renewable Energy (December 2012)

Sustainability challenge of renewable energy

Conclusions of the Council of the European Union on Renewable Energy (December 2012)

“The challenge in developing RES not only needs to focus on making the relevant technologies more attractive and cost-efficient, but also to ensure that their entire lifecycle remains sustainable. Therefore, further consideration needs to be given to the economic, environmental and social aspects of production and use of RES.

In this context, the Commission's recent proposal on indirect land use change related to biofuels and bioliquids should be given early and full attention.

In particular the expected rise in the use of biomass in the coming years heightens the need to consider the sustainability dimensions of the use of sensitive biomass resources”

Pellet imports from non EU countries (tons/month)

Source: Jossart 2013, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Eurostat

Wood pellet trade streams > 10 ktonnes (2010)

Source: Jossart 2013, GDF Suez

• According to Art. 194(2) of the Lisbon Treaty Member States determine their energy mix, but the EU is indirectly influencing the energy mixes.

• The energy mix of the EU as a whole is well balanced. The energy mixes of individual Member States vary significantly.

• The EU is committed to reduce GHG emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. The EU argues that all types of low carbon technologies will be needed to achieve this goal. Regardless of scenario choice, the biggest share in the energy mix is expected to come from RES.

• Intermittency of increasing wind and solar energy poses key challenges to electric power systems. There are various flexibility options. The Commission is preparing guidance.

• Bioenergy is the most versatile of the RES. Sustainable bioenergy systemshave a key role to play to balance VRE.

Conclusions I

• The use of RES is not sustainable per se and its promotion has to be performed with a sense of proportion.

• Policy development should consider full life-cycle impacts as well as direct and preferably indirect effects.

• More intensive development of RES is likely to lead to increased use of biomass. The most promising bioenergy pathways from a Sustainable Development perspective are those that use locally available by-productsand residues as well as biogenic waste streams and which employ highly efficient conversion processes and technologies.

• There is a need for a consistent sustainability framework for bioenergy at EU level.

Conclusions II

Thank you very much for your attention!

mikru@zedat.fu-berlin.de

Back up slides for the discussion

Sustainability scheme for biofuels and bioliquids

Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC)

• Contains binding sustainability standards for transport biofuels and bioliquids to be met in order to count towards the mandatory RES targets and to benefit from financial support.

Minimum lifecycle GHG savings of 35% (2017: 50%; 60% for new installations)

Raw material not to be obtained from land with high biodiversity value

No conversion of land with high carbon stock (forested areas, wetland, peat land)

Agricultural raw material cultivated in the EC to comply with Cross Compliance rules

Complementary reporting requirements (soil, water, air quality, social criteria)

Mass balance system to verify compliance

• EU Commission proposal to limit global land conversion for biofuel

production and to raise the climate benefits of biofuels COM(2012)595

Limit the contribution of conventional food-based biofuels (i.e. from cereals, sugars, oil crops) to the renewable energy target in transport to 5%

Increase of the minimum GHG saving threshold for new installations to 60% (2014)

Indirect land use change to be included in the reporting of fuel suppliers and MS

Incentives to advanced biofuels with no or low land use change: algae, straw, waste resources etc. (multiplication factor of 4!)

Sustainability scheme for biofuels and bioliquids (II)

Sustainability scheme for solid and gaseous biomass used in electricity, heating and cooling

Biomass Sustainability Report COM 2010(11)

Non-binding recommendations

In principle the same criteria as for biofuels/bioliquids

Harmonised calculation methodology for lifecycle GHG emissions, GHG accounting to include end use conversion;

GHG savings criterion not to be applied to wastes

Support schemes to differentiate in favour of plants with high conversion efficiencies

Sustainability schemes shall apply only to larger energy producers

Updated report pending; legislative proposal before the end of the mandate of the current Commission (2014) ?

Source: Rykmanns 2011, EC 2010

GHG savings of selected bioenergy routes

80%

Current energy mix of the EU