Michael Epprecht
Centre for Development and Environment CDEUniversity of Bern, Switzerland
Targeting poverty in the Lao PDR:how well do current approaches reach the poor?
September 1 – 4, 2013
Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
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TLINE
► Background of the SAE in the Lao PDR
► Results of the Lao poverty mapping analysis
► Implications for targeting
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CK
GR
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Mapping Poverty in the Lao PDR
Small-area estimation analysis using
Lao Expenditure and Consumption Survey 2003
(LECS III) 8092 households (20% urban)
in 540 villages (5%)
Population and Housing Census 2005
Systematic sample of 75% of households:
712,900 households 4,123,988 individuals
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CK
GR
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Rural Urban X X X X X X. X X X X . .
X X X
X. X .
X X X X. X X X X X X X X
• Household size• Household size squared• Age composition of household • Female-headed household .• Education of head • Education of spouse• Occupation of head • Ethnicity .• Type of floor• Type of wall• Type of roof• Area of house . • Type of water source• Type of toilet• Type of cooking energy• Village cooking energy .• Village floor type• Village ethnicity• Agro-ecological region
SAE poverty mapping model applied in Lao PDR
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LTS
► Lao poverty mapping analysis
Reliability of results
Where are the poor?
Who are the poor?
► Poverty estimates and confidence intervalsR
ES
ULTS
- RE
LIAB
ILITY0
.2.4
.6.8
1P
over
ty ra
tes
and
conf
iden
ce in
terv
als
District
0.2
.4.6
.81
Pov
erty
rate
s an
d co
nfid
ence
inte
rval
s
Villages
050
010
00Fr
eque
ncy
0 200 400 600 800# of sample households per village
► Size of Lao villages (75% sample)R
ES
ULTS
- RE
LIAB
ILITY
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LTSW
HER
E A
RE
THE
PO
OR
?Poverty rates arehighest in the South East along the mountainous border with Vietnam
Rural poverty is low in
• Xayaburi Province:high value agric. for export
• Mekong corridor:irrigated rice and trade with Thailand
• Boloven plateau:fertile basaltic soils - coffee, tea, & cardamom
► Spatial patterns of poverty in the Lao PDR
► Spatial patterns of poverty in the Lao PDRPoverty incidence and poverty density
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LTSW
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E TH
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R?
► Lao poverty mapping analysis
Where are the poor?
Who are the poor?
Poverty rates amongmale- and female-headed households:
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LTSW
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E TH
E P
OO
R?
► Poverty among ethnic groups
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SU
LTSW
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E TH
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► Poverty among ethnic groups
With the poor a bit of everywhere:
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With the poor a bit of everywhere:
?► What are the
implications…
…for targeting of poverty alleviation efforts?
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LICATIO
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► Where to reach the poor?
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G► MDG 1: Reducing the number of poor people
by 50 % in 2015
50% of the poor live in districts classified as not poor
1/3 of the poor live in poor priority districts
Highest poverty density Poorest areas
► MDG 1: Reducing Laos’ number of poor by 50%IM
PLIC
ATION
S FO
R
TAR
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TING
► Most people are poor in remote, and sparsely
populated areas
high ‘access’ costs per person
costly service provision
little potential ‘leakage’ to non-poor
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LICATIO
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ETIN
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► Most poor people live in comparatively
densely populated areas
low ‘physical access’ costs per person, but
potentially higher targeting costs
cheaper service provision
high ‘leakage’ to non-poor
► Balancing targeting (and implementation) costs vs. ‘leakage’
► Considerations on type of assistance in targeting(household vs. community/ geographic)
► Data needs, and updatability of key data
► Regional development approach in sparsely populated poor remote areas
► Household or population segment targeting in densely populated areas
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