Magnetic Fusion Power Development for Global Warming Suppression
Jiangang Li1 ([email protected]), Jie Zhang2, Xuru Duan3
1. Institute of Plasma Physics,CAS, 2. Shanghai Jiaotong University
3. South West Institute of Physics, CNNC 22nd FEC, Oct.13-18, 2008, Geneva
Content
• Energy Needs in 21st Century
• Revolution of Energy Sources
• Can We make Contribution by Fusion Energy
Development
• Accelerating the Development of Fusion Energy
Anticipation of Energy Demand over the World before 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
100
Million
TC
E
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewable
16.13Billion TCE
29.01 Billion TCE
2005—2050 , average annual growth rate is 1.3%
Energy Needs over the World
IEA2005
Energy Needs in India
Anticipation of Energy Demand in India before 2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005 2015 2030
100
Million
TC
E
Coal Oil Gas Hydro & Nuclear Renewable
0.77Billion
TCE
1.86Billion
TCE
IEA2005
Anticipation of Energy Demand in China before 2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2020 2050
100
Million
TC
E
Coal Oil Gas Hydro & Nuclear Renewable
1.68Billion
TCE
5.00(6)Billion
TCE
Energy Needs in China
IEA2005
(75% coal at moment and about 60% in 2050)
Global Warming Becomes More Apparent
IEA2005
CO2 Emissions Increase with Fuel ConsumptionEvolution from 1971 to 2004 of World
Total Final Consumption by Fuel CO2 Emissions by FuelMtoe Mt of CO2
• China’s CO2 emission (5.06 billion ton)
– 2nd largest in the world
– 18% of the total amount
– Below the world average level per capita
Global Warming Becomes More Apparent
CO2 Emission in the World
58.2
50.6
15.412.1 11.5
8.15.5 5.3 4.5 3.93.9
9.5
1.1
9.8
16.8
8.8 7.7 6.44.2
10.7
19.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
USA CHN RUS JPN IND GER CAN GBR ITA FRA WorldAvg.
CO
2 Em
issi
on
Total / 10 t
per Capita / t
8
IEA2005
What if Greenland Breakup and Melt Away ?
The Sea level Today
If Greenland breakup and melt away
The sea level will rise
Now
Forecast
Greenland Seasonal Ice Melt in 1992
Technology Innovation to Reduce CO2 EmissionClimate ChangeClimate Change
Low Carbon EconomyLow Carbon Economy
Near Zero EmissionNear Zero Emission
Energy Technology R&D
Energy Technology R&D
IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)
IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)
CO2 capture and sequestration
Reduce the cost of wind and solar power generation
Reduce the cost of wind and solar power generation
4th generation nuclear power technique & fusion energy
Alternate fuels for transportationAlternate fuels for transportation
Hydrogen energy
Revolution of Energy Sources Efforts Made in China
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Roadmap for Renewable Energy Power Technology-20% in 2050
WindWind
SolarSolar
BiomassBiomass
Geothermic
Geothermic
HydroHydro
20202020
20302030
20502050
Large-scale development for wind power, steady development for biomass power Large-scale development for wind power, steady development for biomass power
Breakthrough for solar power, form an integrate renewable industry chainBreakthrough for solar power, form an integrate renewable industry chain
Renewable energy play a leading roleRenewable energy play a leading role
Onshore demonstration and generalize
Offshore demonstration and generalize
Photovoltaic generation plant demonstration connected to the grid
Solar heat power plant demonstration connected to the grid
Gasification power plant demonstration and generalize
Combustion power plant demonstration and generalize
heat pump, refrigeration, power generation demonstration and generalize
Continuously develop
Efforts Made in China
1Mw 5Mw 8-10Mw
10Mw 100Mw10-100Mw
Roadmap for Advanced Nuclear Power Technology-15% in 2050
Efforts Made in China
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Promotion of 2nd plus fission reactorDemonstration
of 3rd advanced PWR Promotion of 3rd advanced
PWRTryout depleted fuel reprocessing of PWR
Commercial depleted fuel reprocessing for PWR
Tryout depleted fuel reprocessing of fast reactor
Demonstration of fast reactor
Fast reactor module4th generation of commercial nuclear fast reactor
Commercial depleted fuel reprocessing for fast reactor
Demonstration of fusion reactor
Commercial fusion reactor
NuclearNuclear
Commercialization of 3rd generation nuclear powerCommercialization of 3rd generation nuclear power
3rd generation nuclear power bulk-built & fast reactor module established3rd generation nuclear power bulk-built & fast reactor module established
Fast reactor Steady developed & fusion energy breakthroughs madeFast reactor Steady developed & fusion energy breakthroughs made
20202020
20302030
20502050
Future Targets of Nuclear Energy in China
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
/ Gw
Build up High project Low project
Efforts Made in China
• Accounts for 15% of total installed electric capacity• Replace 1billon ton of coal• Formation of thermal reactor - fast reactor binary
nuclear power system
• Accounts for 8% of total installed electric capacity
• Replace 0.4billon ton of coal• Develop nuclear power plant built in coast
al area , east and central of China
• Accounts for 5% of total installed electric capacity
• Replace 0.18 billon ton of coal• Develop nuclear power plant in
coastal area60
400!
200
CO2 Emission Trend in China With & Without Control
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO
2 Em
issi
on /
Gt
Enhance the end-consumption efficiency Enhance the end-consumption efficiency of electricity
Enhance the supply efficiency of coal to gas Renewable energy and biofuel
nuclear
Without control
With control
6%17%8%
28%
41%
Efforts Made in China
Can We make Contribution by Fusion Energy Development
An environmentally responsible source of almost limitless energyFusion Scientist: Making a “Sun” on Earth
Can Fusion Play a Role in This Century
When?2018-2038 ITER
2030-2050 DEMO
2040-2060 Proto-Type
2050-- First Power Plant
2060: 5-7 GW power plant
2070: 35
2080 70
2090 140
2100 280 (x3=450!)
How?5 % of total primary energy
Fusion power plant in 2100
China : 150
India : 150
EU : 50
US : 50
Japan : 30
KOREA: 20
Total: 450 GW plant
Questions
• – How long will it take? Next 50 years• – Why’s it taking so long?
Technical difficulties, limited financial and human resources• Do we really need another (moving) 50 years?
It took only 8 years for US land on moon in 60s!• –Can we strengthen and accelerate the path to fusion power?
Accelerating the Development of Fusion Energy
New era of Fusion :
Significant progresses have been achieved
within 50 years
ITER, broader approach, new superconducting
devices in Asia, urgent need for new
generation of energy.
More serious consideration of DEMO
GAP analysis, Road map, FAST track…
GAP Analysis: 30-35 years to Demo
10 year 10 years 10 years 10 years 10 years
Build ITER Run ITER Build Run Build
+ IFMIF +IFMIF DEMO DEMO proto-type
Can we Speed Up Fusion Development
• A successful ITER project via strong international cooperation
• Start IFMIF site decision as soon as possible
• Start DEMO design with strong industry involvement now
• Most important is to demonstration of electricity generation within 20 years with reduced mission
Expanded International Cooperation
ITER
JET, JT-60U, JT-60SA
ASDEX-U, DIII-D, HL-2A(M), C-Mod
EAST, KSTAR, Tore-Supra
MAST, NSTX,
SST-1, HT-7,
TCV, TEXTOR, FTU
LHD, W7-X
IFMIF(?)
Small tokomaks
Total: about 1 B $/year exclude ITER
ITER
JET-class
KSATR-class
MAST-U-class
LHD-class
IFMIF
Small tokomaks
Total: less than 1 B $/y !
Necessary test facilities: magnets, H& CD , remote handling, heat flux..
A CTF
EDEMO (within 20 years?) Electricity generation with reduced mission
Electricity generationNo need real steady stateBurning plasma controlSufficient T BreedingAs a CTF
H2 productionTesting tokamak system
availability (reliability, buildability,operability and maintainability)
Pfusion~200MW, t = a few hours to weeks
Based on existing technologies:
Option 1: Pure Fusion
A FDF-class with SC coils
Or:
A ST-type compact device
Option 2: Fusion –Fission hybrid
Fusion: Q=1-3, P=30-50MW
Fission: M= 20-30, Pt = 0.3-1.5GW
Or:
ITER-type machine with different blanket: Pt =5GW, Pe=1.5GW
A More Bold Approach is Needed
Why?天时: Very urgent need for new energy (espec
ially for developing country), fusion is one of very few options and easily convinced by public.
地利: ITER starts in Caderache, fusion need in Korea, Russia, especially China and India.
人和 : Wide cooperation in fusion lasted for 50 years and will be strengthen in future.
A More Bold Approach is Needed
How? A quick decision on IFMIF:
Site, construction, operation, on schedule! Early establishment of DEMO/EDEMO design
groups with strong involvement from industry Based on global cooperation (better not fully joint
project) Well organized global teams (EU,US,CN.. Could
be a few DEMOs)
24
ASIPP
• Very Strong Supports from
top leaders to public
• Start a new MCF program
ITER-CN with industry
Domestic MCF
Efforts from ChinaEfforts from China
China needs fusion more urgent and would like to be the first user of fusion energy
Summary
• Fusion development comes to a new era with significant progress during past 50 years.
• It is too long to wait for another 50 year to get electricity by fusion.
• A much more aggressive approach should be taken with even greater international collaboration towards the early use of fusion energy to meet the urgent needs for energy and global warming suppression.