Magnetic Fusion Power Development for Global Warming Suppression

Jiangang Li1 (j_li@ipp.ac.cn), Jie Zhang2, Xuru Duan3

1. Institute of Plasma Physics,CAS, 2. Shanghai Jiaotong University

3. South West Institute of Physics, CNNC 22nd FEC, Oct.13-18, 2008, Geneva

Content

• Energy Needs in 21st Century

• Revolution of Energy Sources

• Can We make Contribution by Fusion Energy

Development

• Accelerating the Development of Fusion Energy

Anticipation of Energy Demand over the World before 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

100

Million

TC

E

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewable

16.13Billion TCE

29.01 Billion TCE

2005—2050 ， average annual growth rate is 1.3%

Energy Needs over the World

IEA2005

Energy Needs in India

Anticipation of Energy Demand in India before 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2005 2015 2030

100

Million

TC

E

Coal Oil Gas Hydro & Nuclear Renewable

0.77Billion

TCE

1.86Billion

TCE

IEA2005

Anticipation of Energy Demand in China before 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2020 2050

100

Million

TC

E

Coal Oil Gas Hydro & Nuclear Renewable

1.68Billion

TCE

5.00(6)Billion

TCE

Energy Needs in China

IEA2005

(75% coal at moment and about 60% in 2050)

Global Warming Becomes More Apparent

IEA2005

CO2 Emissions Increase with Fuel ConsumptionEvolution from 1971 to 2004 of World

Total Final Consumption by Fuel CO2 Emissions by FuelMtoe Mt of CO2

• China’s CO2 emission (5.06 billion ton)

– 2nd largest in the world

– 18% of the total amount

– Below the world average level per capita

Global Warming Becomes More Apparent

CO2 Emission in the World

58.2

50.6

15.412.1 11.5

8.15.5 5.3 4.5 3.93.9

9.5

1.1

9.8

16.8

8.8 7.7 6.44.2

10.7

19.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

USA CHN RUS JPN IND GER CAN GBR ITA FRA WorldAvg.

CO

2 Em

issi

on

Total / 10 t

per Capita / t

8

IEA2005

What if Greenland Breakup and Melt Away ?

The Sea level Today

If Greenland breakup and melt away

The sea level will rise

Now

Forecast

Greenland Seasonal Ice Melt in 1992

Technology Innovation to Reduce CO2 EmissionClimate ChangeClimate Change

Low Carbon EconomyLow Carbon Economy

Near Zero EmissionNear Zero Emission

Energy Technology R&D

Energy Technology R&D

IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)

IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)

CO2 capture and sequestration

Reduce the cost of wind and solar power generation

Reduce the cost of wind and solar power generation

4th generation nuclear power technique & fusion energy

Alternate fuels for transportationAlternate fuels for transportation

Hydrogen energy

Revolution of Energy Sources Efforts Made in China

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Roadmap for Renewable Energy Power Technology-20% in 2050

WindWind

SolarSolar

BiomassBiomass

Geothermic

Geothermic

HydroHydro

20202020

20302030

20502050

Large-scale development for wind power, steady development for biomass power Large-scale development for wind power, steady development for biomass power

Breakthrough for solar power, form an integrate renewable industry chainBreakthrough for solar power, form an integrate renewable industry chain

Renewable energy play a leading roleRenewable energy play a leading role

Onshore demonstration and generalize

Offshore demonstration and generalize

Photovoltaic generation plant demonstration connected to the grid

Solar heat power plant demonstration connected to the grid

Gasification power plant demonstration and generalize

Combustion power plant demonstration and generalize

heat pump, refrigeration, power generation demonstration and generalize

Continuously develop

Efforts Made in China

1Mw 5Mw 8-10Mw

10Mw 100Mw10-100Mw

Roadmap for Advanced Nuclear Power Technology-15% in 2050

Efforts Made in China

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Promotion of 2nd plus fission reactorDemonstration

of 3rd advanced PWR Promotion of 3rd advanced

PWRTryout depleted fuel reprocessing of PWR

Commercial depleted fuel reprocessing for PWR

Tryout depleted fuel reprocessing of fast reactor

Demonstration of fast reactor

Fast reactor module4th generation of commercial nuclear fast reactor

Commercial depleted fuel reprocessing for fast reactor

Demonstration of fusion reactor

Commercial fusion reactor

NuclearNuclear

Commercialization of 3rd generation nuclear powerCommercialization of 3rd generation nuclear power

3rd generation nuclear power bulk-built & fast reactor module established3rd generation nuclear power bulk-built & fast reactor module established

Fast reactor Steady developed & fusion energy breakthroughs madeFast reactor Steady developed & fusion energy breakthroughs made

20202020

20302030

20502050

Future Targets of Nuclear Energy in China

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

/ Gw

Build up High project Low project

Efforts Made in China

• Accounts for 15% of total installed electric capacity• Replace 1billon ton of coal• Formation of thermal reactor - fast reactor binary

nuclear power system

• Accounts for 8% of total installed electric capacity

• Replace 0.4billon ton of coal• Develop nuclear power plant built in coast

al area , east and central of China

• Accounts for 5% of total installed electric capacity

• Replace 0.18 billon ton of coal• Develop nuclear power plant in

coastal area60

400!

200

CO2 Emission Trend in China With & Without Control

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 Em

issi

on /

Gt

Enhance the end-consumption efficiency Enhance the end-consumption efficiency of electricity

Enhance the supply efficiency of coal to gas Renewable energy and biofuel

nuclear

Without control

With control

6%17%8%

28%

41%

Efforts Made in China

Can We make Contribution by Fusion Energy Development

An environmentally responsible source of almost limitless energyFusion Scientist: Making a “Sun” on Earth

Can Fusion Play a Role in This Century

When?2018-2038 ITER

2030-2050 DEMO

2040-2060 Proto-Type

2050-- First Power Plant

2060: 5-7 GW power plant

2070: 35

2080 70

2090 140

2100 280 (x3=450!)

How?5 % of total primary energy

Fusion power plant in 2100

China : 150

India : 150

EU : 50

US : 50

Japan : 30

KOREA: 20

Total: 450 GW plant

Questions

• – How long will it take? Next 50 years• – Why’s it taking so long?

Technical difficulties, limited financial and human resources• Do we really need another (moving) 50 years?

It took only 8 years for US land on moon in 60s!• –Can we strengthen and accelerate the path to fusion power?

Accelerating the Development of Fusion Energy

New era of Fusion :

Significant progresses have been achieved

within 50 years

ITER, broader approach, new superconducting

devices in Asia, urgent need for new

generation of energy.

More serious consideration of DEMO

GAP analysis, Road map, FAST track…

GAP Analysis: 30-35 years to Demo

10 year 10 years 10 years 10 years 10 years

Build ITER Run ITER Build Run Build

+ IFMIF +IFMIF DEMO DEMO proto-type

Can we Speed Up Fusion Development

• A successful ITER project via strong international cooperation

• Start IFMIF site decision as soon as possible

• Start DEMO design with strong industry involvement now

• Most important is to demonstration of electricity generation within 20 years with reduced mission

Expanded International Cooperation

ITER

JET, JT-60U, JT-60SA

ASDEX-U, DIII-D, HL-2A(M), C-Mod

EAST, KSTAR, Tore-Supra

MAST, NSTX,

SST-1, HT-7,

TCV, TEXTOR, FTU

LHD, W7-X

IFMIF(?)

Small tokomaks

Total: about 1 B $/year exclude ITER

ITER

JET-class

KSATR-class

MAST-U-class

LHD-class

IFMIF

Small tokomaks

Total: less than 1 B $/y !

Necessary test facilities: magnets, H& CD , remote handling, heat flux..

A CTF

EDEMO (within 20 years?) Electricity generation with reduced mission

Electricity generationNo need real steady stateBurning plasma controlSufficient T BreedingAs a CTF

H2 productionTesting tokamak system

availability (reliability, buildability,operability and maintainability)

Pfusion~200MW, t = a few hours to weeks

Based on existing technologies:

Option 1: Pure Fusion

A FDF-class with SC coils

Or:

A ST-type compact device

Option 2: Fusion –Fission hybrid

Fusion: Q=1-3, P=30-50MW

Fission: M= 20-30, Pt = 0.3-1.5GW

Or:

ITER-type machine with different blanket: Pt =5GW, Pe=1.5GW

A More Bold Approach is Needed

Why?天时： Very urgent need for new energy (espec

ially for developing country), fusion is one of very few options and easily convinced by public.

地利： ITER starts in Caderache, fusion need in Korea, Russia, especially China and India.

人和 : Wide cooperation in fusion lasted for 50 years and will be strengthen in future.

A More Bold Approach is Needed

How? A quick decision on IFMIF:

Site, construction, operation, on schedule! Early establishment of DEMO/EDEMO design

groups with strong involvement from industry Based on global cooperation (better not fully joint

project) Well organized global teams (EU,US,CN.. Could

be a few DEMOs)

24

ASIPP

• Very Strong Supports from

top leaders to public

• Start a new MCF program

ITER-CN with industry

Domestic MCF

Efforts from ChinaEfforts from China

China needs fusion more urgent and would like to be the first user of fusion energy

Summary

• Fusion development comes to a new era with significant progress during past 50 years.

• It is too long to wait for another 50 year to get electricity by fusion.

• A much more aggressive approach should be taken with even greater international collaboration towards the early use of fusion energy to meet the urgent needs for energy and global warming suppression.