©OECD/IEA2016©OECD/IEA2016
LaszloVarroChiefEconomist
©OECD/IEA2016
Energypost-Paris
Wemadeittothebasecamp...
...butthere’satoughclimbstillahead
©OECD/IEA2016
Energyefficiencyandlowfossilfuelprices
ThethreebestsellingvehiclesinNorthAmerica
Appliancestandardslockinefficiencyimprovementsdespitedecliningelectricityprices
©OECD/IEA2016
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Theglobalcarfleetdoubles,butefficiencygains,biofuels&electriccarsreduceoil
Changeinoildemandbysector,2015-2040
Nopeakyetinsight,butaslowdowningrowthforoildemand
Powergeneration
Buildings Passengercars
Maritime Freight Aviation Petrochemicals
demandforpassengercars; growthelsewherepushestotaldemandhigher
©OECD/IEA2016
Electricityisleadingthetransformation
Electriccarsgenerateconsumerexcitement,butdisplacedonly0.01%ofoilproductionlastyear
Currentwindandsolarinvestmentisequivalenttoover1%ofglobalgasproductionnotburnedinCCGTs
©OECD/IEA2016
Thegrowthofrenewablesisnotnecessarilydecentralised
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Globalwindandsolarproduction
Thelargemajorityofrenewableproductionreliesontheinterconnectedgrid
©OECD/IEA2016
Energystoragesolutionsinahighcarbonsystem
©OECD/IEA2016
Theabilitytointegraterenewablesisimprovingbutthereareunansweredquestionsatveryhighshares
Transmissioninterconnection
DemandsideResponse Is the low hanging fruit scalable?
Is the Supergrid politically feasible?
EnergystorageCan smart pricing overcome consumer convenience?
©OECD/IEA2016 ©IEA2016
Flexiblegasturbinesremainessentialtokeepthelightson
EUgasfiredcapacityandgeneration-today
EUgasfiredcapacityandgeneration– 450ppm
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capacity,GW generation,twh
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Infrastructureinvestmentcostfora1GWpowerplantinAsiaCoalandgas-firedpowerinvestmentinAsianmarkets(2015)
InfrastructurecostsfavourcoalpowerovergasinAsianenergyimporters
Asianmarketscomprised85%ofglobal coalpowerinvestment,whileN.AmericaandMiddleEast,withrobustinfrastructure,favouredgasfornewfossilfuelpower
©OECD/IEA2016 ©IEA2016
YoungandoldcoalYoungandoldcoalcapacity,2015
GW
Athirdofglobalcoalcapacityislessthan10yearsoldrepresenting90billiontonsofpotentialCO2emissionsduringtheirlifetime
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©OECD/IEA2016
CCSgoodnewsdependonoilmarketdevelopments
ForeverysingleCCSprojectthathassucceededinreallifehydrocarbonrevenuesplayedanimportantrole
BoundaryDamPetraNovaKemper
GorgonQuest
EORoilpaysforcleancoal
LargeoilandgasprojectswithanintegratedCCScomponent
©OECD/IEA2016
Nuclear:alargelowcarbonsourcewithuncertainprospects
üChina:anewreactoreveryquarter
üRussia:strongnuclearprogramwithglobalambitions
üKorea:pronuclearpolicy,strongindustrialcapability
û Persistentprojectmanagementissues
û Exposuretowholesalemarketdesign
LosingtheEUandUSnuclearfleetwouldabsorb20yearsofwindandsolardeploymentatthecurrentinvestmentrate