.,, _
4. Land Use planning for loW Emission development Strategy (LUWES) dan REDD Abacus untuk Pemantauan Cadangan Karb~n
Land Use planning for loW Emission development Strategy (LUWES) dan
REDD Abacus Untuk Pemantauan Cadangan Karban
Sonya Dewi, Andree Ekadinata, Putra Agung, Feri Johana and Gamma Galudra
Pros1d1ng Workshop Strategt Monuonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen dt Provms1 Sumatera Barat 79
OUTLINE
1. Latar Belakang
2. Land Use Planning For Low Emission Development
Strategy (LUWES} dan REDD Abacus
3. Carbon Accounting in LUWES and REDD+ Abbacus
4. LUWES untuk Pemantauan Karban
5. Contoh Aplikasi LUWES
Latar Belakang
80 I Presentas1
~
I
'
.,
)-
I ['-·
~
> ......... +"' ~
REDD+ dan NAMA 3.5 ~BAU Tingkat Referensi
3 misi
-.NAMAN Unilateral emission
2.5 reduction
Internationally 2 NAMA I
suppor-ted emission_ 15% reduction
X% 1.5 ale of C-credits
1 Net emissions
0.5 from Indonesia
0
1990 2000 2010 2020
Beberapa Pertanyaan Terkait Upaya Mitigasi Perubahan lklim
• Bagaimana memahami rencana aktivitas pembangunan dan skala prioritasnya?
• Bagaimana mengetahui implikasi rencana pembangunan terhadap tingkat emisi ?
• Bagaimana mempertahankan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi sekaligus menurunkan emisi?
• Apa saja kebijakan yang mendukung strategi pembangunan rendah emisi?
Pros1d1ng Workshop Strateg1 Morntonng dan Pclaporan Plot Sampel Perman en d1 Provms1 Sumatera Barat 81
Pembangunan Rendah Emisi
• Adalah sebuah sistem ekonomi yang meminimalisasi output/emisi GRK ke biosfer, khususnya gas C02
• Didorong oleh adanya perubahan iklim global karena emisi GRK yang disebabkan oleh akitivitas manusia.
• Tujuan utama adalah untuk menghindari dampak negatif dari perubahan iklim
• lmplementasi global diharapkan bisa terjadi
• Menuju zero carbon society dan renewable-energy economy
82 Presemas1
Land Use Planning For Low Emission Development Strategy (LUWES)
Tradeoffs Sistem Penggunaan Lahan
2,000
1,800
"' 1,600 .c ~ ui 1,400 ~ e 1,200 Q.
> 1,000 Q. z
800
600
400
200
0
Tree crop •
plantations
.intensil:~ crops
···'f
Tree plant~ii~ns x Agroforest . • •. Hulan alam yang
•. ••••• "' dibudidayakan .. • •• · ·s~cara intensif dibudidayakan
········ . ••••••• H t I . • • • • • • • • • • • u an a am pnmer
- Extensive crops
- Pastures
Hulan alam yang
0 50 100 150 200 C stock, Mg C/ha
250 ~o
-11 NPV << /1NPV>>
High High
11 co2-eq >> emission, less profitable land
emission, highly profitable land use change use~
~
Pros1d1ng Workshop Strateg1 Monitonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Baral 83
Low emission development strategies (LEDS}
• 41/7 in the case of Indonesia • Minimizing GHG emission to biosphere and
sustaining development (growth and equity, beyond economic)
• Within AFOLU sector, LEDS is largely integrated rural land use planning and development planning
• But ... land use planning and development planning in rural tropics are often independent processes with no coordination
• Inclusive, integrated, informed land use planning is necessary
Low emission development
strategies (LEDS)
Olmate Change Mitigation
I c
84 Presemas1
Historic emission
Low Emission Development
Scenarios
$,ES, pe ople
Development activities
--~-
$, peopl e,ha
LED plan
" $, people, ha, c
Trade-off analysis, strategies
_band Use Planning for Low ~mission Development ~trategy
(LUWES)
• a framework that helps local stakeholders to design a development planning that can reduce green house gas emission from land-based activity while still maintained economic growth
• offers a set of principles, steps and tools (including a Java-based software, ABACUS SP) to help multistakeholders to negotiate the land use plans by entertain ing scenarios that can be developed together.
LUWES in 6 steps
1. lntegrasi kondisi sosial ekonomi, pembangunan, penataan ruang, faktor biofisik dan zonasi fungsi kedalam penentuan unit perencanaan
2. Estimasi perubahan penggunaan lahan dan konsekuensinya terhadap cadangan karbon.
3.Mengembangkan skenario baseline dan menentukan Reference Emission Level
4.Menyusun skenario penurunan emisi dan memodelkan emisi di masa yang akan datang
S.Trade-off analysis, memilih skenario terbaik dalam mengurangi emisi
6.Memformulasikan rencana aksi termasuk di dalamnya instrumen untuk mengimplementasi rencana
Prosid1ng Worl<.shop Strategi Mon11onng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Provms1 Sumatera Barat 85
f"~~ Climate Change
Mitigatiori ,, 0 \
' - ..
c Scenarios
$, peopl e, ha
Financing
~
4 11 21 JS 42 0 51 63 1 11 ston Ptr-Ha Area {Mg CO:'-eqlHa Veat)
-A software to calcu late opportunity cost, analyze opportunity cost curve, ca lculating reference emission level and developing emission reduction strategy -Avai lable for free at http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/abacus/
86 Presentas1
Pemantauan Cadangan Karbon Dalam LUWES dan REDD Abacus
Choices of Approach • Gain-loss {process based)
approach
• Estimates net balances of addition to and removal from carbon pools
Disturbance
C02 Uptake via growth
Land use type
Harvest
L\C = L\C gain - L\C loss
• Stock difference approach
• Estimates net balances of addition to and removal from carbon pools ---------------------~
C-stock t1
Change in land use system
C-stock t2
: L'.\C = L\C t2 - L\C u I I I I I L---- ____ I LU WES
Pro11d1ng Workshop Strateg1 Morntonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Provms1 Sumatera Barat 87
Salah Satu Pilihan Metode Estimasi Gas Rumah Kaea
Rerata tahunan perubahan
cadangan karbon
/
"',.. ; -- ......
' \ ,:r.:'Perub~han ' \
~ I . , ' - \
c sistem '1 I •
\ pengunaan " lahan
I I I
'•.,
\ DATA AKTIVITAS I Kuantifikasi
\ perubahan lahan I
'
dari satu kurun / waktu /
' ..... ""
Persamaan generik
FAKTOR EMISI
Kuantifikasi perubahan cadangan
karbon dalam satu kurun waktu
b.C = perubahan tahunan cadangan karbon keseluruhan, ton C/tahun
Aij = luas dari tipe penggunaan lahan iyang berubah menjadi /(ha)
L\CiL LB = perubahan cadangan karbon pada biomasa hidup dari perubahan t1pe penggunaan lahan imenjadi j (ton C/ha)
L\Cij DOM = perubahan cadangan karbon pada bahan oganik mati dari perubahan penggunaan lahan dari tipe imenjadi j (ton C/ha)
L\Cij SOILS= perubahan cadangan karbon dalam tanah dari perubahan penggunan lahan tipe imenjadi j (ton C/ha)
Tij = periode waktu yang ditetapkan untuk pengukuran dan pemantauan, tahun.
88 Presentas1
•Choice of land use/cover classes •Stratification •Look-up table - land cover, land use, land use systems
•Plot sampling design •Field measurement •Choice of model, parameters, allometric equation
•Satellite image interpretatio and spatial analysis •Groundtruthing
I\ Uncertainty level
Assessing variability at landscape level
Pros1dmg Workshop Strateg1 Monitoring dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen dt Provms1 Sumatera Barat 89
Sistem Penggunaan Lahan
• Penggunaan lahan (land use) mengacu kepada aktifitas manusia pada lahan tertentu
• Tutupan lahan (land cover) mengacu pada tipe vegetasi yang ada pada lahan tertentu
• Zonasi mengacu pada zonasi biofisik atau kebijakan yang mempengaruhi tutupan dan pengelolaan lahan
• Sistem pengunaan lahan (SPL) menggabungkan ketiganya, termasuk siklus perubahan vegetasi dan aktifitas pengelolaan (penanaman, pemanenan)
Definisi kawasan hutan berdasarkan kanopi
POHON DI LUAR
I KAWASAN \ HUTAN ' ' ' ...
90 Presemas1
l!7
--------~ - ---- - --- --... ... .. ,,. ' ,. ,.
KAWASAN I I HUTAN I I DE NGAN
POHON
TOTAL AREA
Sistem penggunaan lahan dan cadangan karbon
• Jenis vegetasi yang membentuk tutupan lahan menentukan besarnya cadangan karbon dan kemampuannya dalam menambat karbon
• Aktivitas dalam sebuah tipe penggunaan lahan umumnya berpengaruh pada perubahan cadangan karbon (emisi atau penambatan karbon)
• Sistem pengunaan lahan - panjang rotasi dan tipe mempengaruhi rata-rata cadangan karbon (time-averaged Cstock)
Salah Satu Pilihan Metode Estimasi Gas Rumah Kaea
Rerata tahunan perubahan
cadangan karbon
I
",.. , -- .....
' \
~ I I I \ DATA AKTIVITAS I
I ~ perubahanlahan
'
dari satu kurun /
waktu /
' -- .......
Kuantifikasi FAKTOR EMISI
Kuantifikasi perubahan cadangan karbon dalam satu
kurun waktu
Pros1dmg Workshop Strategi Monitonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Barat 91
92 Presentas1
Satellite image interpretation
Land cover change analysis
] Settlement - Water body
Cloud and shadow
1989
World A~[r 0-
Analisa perubahan penggunaan dan tutupan lahan
• Pemetaan penggunaan lahan dan tutupan lahan pada titik waktu yang berbeda
• ldentifikasi perubahan pada lokasi yang sama pada kurun waktu yang berbeda
• Penghitungan area masing-masing kelas perubahan
Matriks perubahan I
2000
lua sa n peruba han lahan
Matri ks Peru ba ha n1-----.--- --,.-- ----.---r----+-- ---i
Lahan (ha)
Hu tan
Kebun
1990
Tutupan laha n yg t idak berubah
0 0 0
Kelas t ut upan la han yang dia nalisa
World .A4t11 <
Pros1d1ng Workshop S1ra1eg1 Monnonng dan Pelaporan Pio! Sampel Permanen d1 Provins1 Suma1era Bara! 93
Salah Satu Pilihan Metode Estimasi Gas Rumah Kaea
Rerata tahunan perubahan
cadangan karbon
--DATA AKTIVITAS
Kuantifikasi perubahanlahan dari satu kurun
waktu
'
FAKTOR EMISI
Kuantifikasi
Plot level carbon measurement
94 Presentas1
\ \ \ I I
I
100
"
I •
Tree Plot
100 • t/. • • • e .... .. :: ..,,. :i. ···1 .• ...... , . . . ·.. •\. •
-~. . . .. ~ ···~ • :• -41; .. . .S• •• , . ... .. , . . . . ... . . . .. ~ . . • ..• ·~ " . ,. i9 .... • ••. , fl) :-. •
••• ••• • • . ~· ..•• ·~ ", . , ............ ,"' .. .
... .. ... . . t. . . • • . .... fll.·.· • . ..... ~ ,... . .. . "' ..... . • • • • • • • •• ••• t ~ . . •. ~ .. ; -~ ..•. :,.11 .. ,,. . . . ,,. ' ... ,, ...
. . . ' .. , . ' '" .. •... , ... , . . •.. . •;:. . • • • • • ,. 100
1992 123 Ton C
0-· C .J .., ......
Sub Plo l Info
OBH Class
"
0
• • ,,.".. • _J ... . • " • '5"'". • • ~
' " • . •... ,. • ., • t ••• • •• ;.
• • • • • 0 50 11
1998 ~ 133T~
WorldAim1[
Carbon Stock(Ton'Ha)
Ta ble
0.10 10.1' ~-20- ?j • .i:i -&:) .!~ !~-~ ~-10 10.i: t4-SO go. tea . 110. 1C' t10 1;;:~
Pros1d1ng Workshop Strategi Morntonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Perman en d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Barat
• 100
95
..
240 ....
"' -;, 200 2
~ 160 c !'Cl .... "' :::s 120 ::i: ·v; Qj
80
40
1 Calculation of time averaged C-stock
HU TAN ALAMI
Tebang & Bakar
D Hilang viaT&B ;;o QI .....
_P_e_r9!~1!'!~Yi'! _____________ ·---1 230 ~ aforestasi · ~
• Tertinggal di lahan QI
n "O <11 .... ~.
"'" c "' ..... QI :::s QI
~ 80 s
(IQ
::r QI,:.
Tan. Semusim/ Lafang 29
a. u c !'Cl t>.D c !'Cl
"O !'Cl u o,__----------..... ------..... ------...---------
0 10 20 30 40 (IPCC, 2001, hal 209)
Time averaged C-stock dari berbagai sistem
600
500
ro 400 ..c: ........ +I 300
.!:I::: u 200 0 +I
'r 100 u
96 Presentas1
penggunaanlahan
!Degradation, - 300 t/ha
Deforestation - 5 t/ha y
0 Trees • Understorey 0 Necromass • Litter 0 Soil (S} 0-5 cm 0 S, 5-10 cm • S, 10-20 cm CJ S, 20-30 cm
LUWES dan REDD Abacus Untuk Pemantauan Cadangan Karbon
Choices of Approach • Gain-loss (process based)
approach
• Estimates net balances of addition to and removal from carbon pools
I
I
: Disturbance
C02 Uptake via growth
Harvest
use type
1 L\C = L\C gain - L\C loss L----- -- --------------
• Stock difference approach
• Estimates net balances of addition to and removal from carbon pools
C-stock t1
Change in land use system
C-stock t2
L\C = L\C t1 - L\C u
Pro11d1ng Workshop S1ra1eg1 Monitoring dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Provm11 Sumatera Baral 97
Metode Gain-Loss dan Penghitungan Emisi
Disturbance
C02 Uptake via growth
Land use type
Harvest
LiC = LiC gain - LiC loss
• C gain= jumlah serapan karbon selama satu siklus hidup sebuah sistem penggunaan lahan
• C loss= jumlah cadangan karbon yang hilang akibat proses ekstraksi, mortalitas tegakan,gangguanakan tegakan dan lain-lain
l!'f
Gain Loss dan Data Aktivitas
Matriks Perubahan Lahan (ha)
Hutan
Tutupan lahan yg tidak berubah
98 Presentas1
Hutan
100
2000
Ke bun Sawah Pemukiman
50 20 10
20 10 0
10 10 10
0 0 30
Tantangan Penggunaan Metode Gain-Loss
• Mengintegrasikan data pertumbuhan dan serapan karbon dari pengukuran tingkat plot ke estiamsi emisi di tingkat landscape menggunakan metode gabungan
• Mengintegrasikan perubahan penggunaan lahan pada skala plot kedalam estimasi emisi dan serapan karbon
Contoh Hasil Aplikasi LUWES
Pros1dmg Workshop Strategi Monnonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen [ 99 d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Barat
Step 1: Integrating development and spatial planning
• Inventory of current local development goals, objectives, plans through stakeholder discussion
• Technical assessment of locally specific livelihoods indicators, local potential and rural base-sectors
• Identification of areas of priorities for development
Inventory of land-based development in Tanjung Jabung Barat
• Concession maps were collected from various government insti_tution to improve the existing spatia l plan map
• Stakeholders focus group discussion was conducted to understand land use
expansion
New oil palm concession
100 I Presemast
Timbe~t~on ~ss1on
(:;
...
Current land use planning+ concession maps
Legend .. Ptotededarea
0t<PH.G Ql<PHP
.. llmber plort3Uon ate:. --.. ··
.. Dry 3gl~lM'e expansion acea
C:J Wei agrlcuftt#e expansion area
.. Stnlemtoe .xpanskm oreo
CXhtr alocallon
Land allocation based on spatial plan and concession map
Dry agricultur
e expansion
ar ea Other
W 16% allocation et \ J%
agri~ultur
expansion area 5%
Set tlemen-._ t
expansion area 1%
Oil palm
Mining area 0%
area 14%
KPH LG 3%
• More than 42% of Tanjung Jabung Barat area is allocated for oi l palm expansion {28%) and acacia plantation expansion {14%}
• Production forest under the
•
management of KPHP covers 29% of Tanja bar area
Land al located as protected area only encompassed 3% of Tanja bar area
Pros1d1ng Workshop Strateg1 Mon11ormg dan Pela po ran Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Baral 101
Step 2: Estimating Historical Emissions form past land-based activities
• Data requirement:
1
2
3
4
5
6
102 I
- area of changes and trajectories of land use system, produced by land use change analysis through satellite image interpretation
- time-averaged carbon stock for each land use system, normally obtained from plot inventory, allometric modelling
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/projects/tuls ea/in rmtools/RaCSA
Land conversion within each zone based on focus group discussion
r----:=-==~---i
M ining area
All land use within this zone will be cleared for mining activi ty. Conversion process will be conducted throughout the years. Reclamat ion process to rubber/oil palm is planned in the end of concession period
Timber All land use within this zone will be converted to
plantation area Acacia
Oil palm All land use within this zone will be converted to expansion area oil palm plantation
Settlement All land use within this zone will be converted to expansion area new settlement area
Dry agriculture All land use within this zone will be converted to expansion area either oil palm or rubber
Wet agriculture Prioritizing for rice field development within this
expansion area area
Presentas1
...
Predicted net emission at each planning zone
.... 3 .00 ~---------------------> ~ 2.50 +----L ...... g 2.00 +----··- - - -! Cl 1.50 +--u .E 1.00
-;; a.so -1-.,o~o=s-o . "ill 0.00 4-'-~ .E QI
~ z
Planning zone
Step 3: Developing baseline scen·arios and estimating Reference Emission Levels
• Baseline scenarios can be: - Current land use and development plan
- Linear projection of historic land use/cover changes
- Projected land use/cover changes from modelling driver
• Calculate Reference Emission Level from the baseline scenarios by running simulations in ABACUS
Pros1d1ng Workshop Stra1eg1 Monitoring dan Pelaporan Plot Sarnpel Permanen I 103 d1 Provrnsr Sumatera Barat
Choices of reference emission level for Tanjabar
25.00 c 0
.:::.. c 20.00 0 ·u:;-"' ... ·- > E ro 15.00 QI ..c: ... -QI C" c QI 10.00 QI N >o '+; u ~ 5.00 :::l
E :::l u
0.00
2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
Year
..,REL-Historical based REL-Development plan
Emission share by zone in Tanjabar
Wet agriculture expansion
area 2%
Settle me nt expansion
area 1%
KPH LG 16%
area 2%
Dry agriculture expansion
104 I Presentas1
Mining area 1%
Oil palm expansion
area 26%
KPHP 10%
Timber plantation expansion
area 28%
• Based on development planning of Tanja bar, about 54% of its tota l future GHG emission wi ll come from conversion to oi l palm (26%) and acacia (28%)
• Three zones w ith highest emission share that should be prioritized for emission reduction activity are: oi l palm expansion area, timber plantation expansion area and ~
.v
~ ·
Step 4: Developing future scenarios, estimating opportunity costs and ex-ante emissions
• Profitability analysis of land use system as a bottomup approach to estimate opportunity cost of reducing emissions through avoiding land use/cover changes
• Needs to be clear on assumptions taken in calculating NPV, limitation of financial ana lysis and open to other approach which includes economic analysis, multiplier effect, sectoral linkages and other indirect and non-monetary cost and benefit
• Use ABACUS to calculate the OppCost
Planned activities for emission re-duction in
Tanjabar based on focus group discussion
No Zone Development activity for emission reduction
Remaining forest inside KPHP will be preserved 1 KPHP as community forest and/or recreational forest
SCENARIO 1 (S-1) Preserving the remaining forest, jelutung
2 KPH LG enrichment on oil palm area
Commodity diversification inside the zone: Timber preserving and better management of
3 plantation smallholder rubber, coffee and coconut area garden, avoid conversion of primary forest
Commodity diversification inside t he zone: SCENARIO 2 (S-2)
Oil palm preserving and better management of 4 expansion smallholder rubber, coffee and coconut
area garden, avoid conversion of primary forest
~ Wodd >,wofri Q
Prosrdrng Workshop Strategr Monrtorrng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Permanen / lOS dr Provrnsr Suma1era Barat
c:
~ c:
·~ -VI ~ ·- > E re QI .J:: ... ..._ QI er c: QI
QI N > 0 ·;: u
"' :; E :::i u
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
REL and Emission reduction scenario of Tanjabar
23.00
21.00
19.00
17.00
15.00
13.00
11.00
9.00
7.00
5.00
2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Year
• REL-Developmen plan+Sl
ff Ex-ante emissions and OppCots:
RELl & Skenario Direct, financial Opportunity costs for REDD+
RELl-52 REU-53
-60 Reduced missions as much as 19% associated
d ( with increased gain through land use effiency
• Reduce Emissions t 1
• Opportunity costs/reduced emissions ($/t C02-eq)
106 I Presentas1
r· I
Step 5: Developing strategies
• Negotiate and select strategies with highest emission reduction and lowest opportunity cost, target for emission reductions in each zones from particular activities, feasibility to implement, strengths compared to others
• Identify what policy, regulation and action plans required
Emission reduction-opportunity cost trade-off
0.25 ..,.----------- ----- --
0.20 +--~D-~19'------------
0.15
0.10 tJ Emission reduction
II Opportunity cost
Pros1dmg Workshop Stratcg1 Mon11onng dan Pela po ran Plot Sampel Permanen d1 Prov1ns1 Sumatera Barat I 101
Step 6: Translating strategies into action plans
• Reconcil iation of Development Priority Plan (of Step 1) with the LEDS (of Step 5)
• Identify nature of implementations and implementing units, stakeholders, form working groups to conduct feasibi lity assessment including enabling conditions, activities, costs, risks, financia l measures
Emission Reduction and Trade off
No Zone Development actMty for Emission OPCOST
emission reduction reduction
Remaining forest inside KPHP w ill
1 KPHP be preserved as community forest and/or recreational forest SCENARIO
Preserving the remain ing forest, 1 (S-1) 19% 10%
2 KPH LG jelutung enrichment on oil pa lm area
Commodity diversification inside
Timber the zone: preserving and better
3 plantati management of smallholder rubber, coffee and coconut
on area garden, avoid conversion of primary forest SCENARIO 10% 5% Commodity diversi fication inside 2 (S-2)
Oil palm the zone: preserving and better management of smallholder
4 expansio rubber, coffee and coconut
n area garden, avoid conversion of primary forest
108 \ Presen1a11
I
I •
Tanjung Jabung Barat Regent and its Distribution of Forest Functions
f~r~f)
I
- Natural Reserve I !:!) Protection Forest
~-0 •S t ia
cr::!l ProdUCllOn Forest c:J Limited Production Forest
1:i:J NabOnal Park
c:J Tanjung Jobung Baral Regent Boundary
Pros1d1ng Workshop S1ra1eg1 Monuonng dan Pelaporan Plot Sampel Pcrmanen d1 Provms1 Sumatera Barat 109