Jürgen LefeverePolicy Coordinator – International Climate ChangeDG EnvironmentEuropean CommissionBrussels
The Road to Bali:An analysis of the Vienna
Climate Talks
Convention (COP)
Kyoto Protocol (CMP)
May August December
IPC
C A
R4
AWG (Art. 3.9)
Convention Dialogue:• Advancing development goals• Addressing action on adaptation• Realising full pot. of technology• Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities
Report toCOP-13
4th Session
4th Workshop
Review of the Kyoto Protocol (Art.9)
Russian Proposal
Deforestation (SBSTA)
Technology (SBSTA)
Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI)
Vienna& its context
BA
LI
The AWG (I)
Agenda: Analysis of mitigation potentials &
identification of ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex I Parties
Result: Recognition IPCC lowest stabilisation scenario
requires GHG emissions to peak in the next 10-15 yrs and reduced to well below half of 2000 levels by 2050
Lowest IPCC scenario requires Annex I to reduce emissions in a range of 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020
To be continued…
The AWG (II)
Key issues: EU advocated strong reference to global emission
reduction objectives and Annex I contributions thereto
Japan, Canada, Russia not ready to be drawn into concrete discussion on mitigation potentials and reduction ranges
AOSIS concerned with impacts lowest IPCC ranges Saudi Arabia insisted on analysis “spillover
effects” India insisted on domestic reductions & life-style
changes Annex I: relation between reduction ranges and flexible mechanisms?
The Convention Dialogue (I)
Agenda: Building blocks of a post-2012 agreement “analysis of existing and potential investment
and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to climate change”
Result: Report co-facilitators to COP-13 in Bali Finance ministers meeting 11 December?
The Convention Dialogue (II)
Key issues: UNFCCC report:
Finance and investment challenge is “doable” Redirect finance flows, need for new finance Important role carbon market, but depends on ambition
post-2012 agreement Finance ministers 11 Dec?
The Bali Roadmap? No negotiations: China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Korea New dialogue/agenda item/new ad-hoc group/merge
with AWG “unintended consequences”
The Global Carbon Market:Transfer of Emission credits (1)
Credit transfers (Billion EUR/year)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
The Global Carbon Market:Transfer of Emission credits (2)
volume price total/yr2010 2 10 42015 3 21 12.62020 8 37 59.22025 10 50 1002030 12 64 153.6
€ 25 billion/yr decarbonise DC
energy investments
€ 33 billion/yr energy access poor
UNFCCC:
Mitigation:
200-210 bUS$/yr
(NAI 46%)
Carbon market:
5-100 bUS$/yr
Co-facilitators’ “building blocks”
AdaptationMitigation
Investment and Finance
Sustainable development
Global Action
Russian Proposal
May August December
Convention (COP)
Kyoto Protocol (CMP)IPC
C A
R4
Convention Dialogue:• Advancing development goals• Addressing action on adaptation• Realising full pot. of technology• Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities
4th WorkshopReport toCOP-13
Deforestation (SBSTA)
Technology Transfer (SBSTA)
Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI)
AWG (Art. 3.9) 4th Session
Review of the Kyoto Protocol
Bali Roadmap
• Ambition/objective• “principles”• Platform & process• Timeline• Recognition of action• Deforestation • Technology• Adaptation• Finance & investment• Russian Proposal?
• Commitments AI KP
• Russian Proposal?
• Incentives for action• Bunker fuels• ?
?
The Bali “roadmap”
The Road to Bali
9-11 September: Gleneagles Dialogue (Berlin, Germany) 24 September: High Level Meeting on Climate Change, UN
Secretary General Initiative (New York) 27-28 September: US Major Economies Initiative
(Washington DC)
24-25 October: Informal ministerial meeting (Bogor, Indonesia)
31 October: Third UNFCCC workshop on Finance and Investment to address climate change
12-16 November: IPCC adoption of Synthesis Report (Valencia, Spain)
10 December: Trade Ministers Meeting (Bali) 11 December: Finance Ministers Meeting (Bali) 3-14 December: UN Climate Negotiations (Bali)