Jürgen LefeverePolicy Coordinator – International Climate ChangeDG EnvironmentEuropean CommissionBrussels

The Road to Bali:An analysis of the Vienna

Climate Talks

Convention (COP)

Kyoto Protocol (CMP)

May August December

IPC

C A

R4

AWG (Art. 3.9)

Convention Dialogue:• Advancing development goals• Addressing action on adaptation• Realising full pot. of technology• Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities

Report toCOP-13

4th Session

4th Workshop

Review of the Kyoto Protocol (Art.9)

Russian Proposal

Deforestation (SBSTA)

Technology (SBSTA)

Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI)

Vienna& its context

BA

LI

The AWG (I)

Agenda: Analysis of mitigation potentials &

identification of ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex I Parties

Result: Recognition IPCC lowest stabilisation scenario

requires GHG emissions to peak in the next 10-15 yrs and reduced to well below half of 2000 levels by 2050

Lowest IPCC scenario requires Annex I to reduce emissions in a range of 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020

To be continued…

The AWG (II)

Key issues: EU advocated strong reference to global emission

reduction objectives and Annex I contributions thereto

Japan, Canada, Russia not ready to be drawn into concrete discussion on mitigation potentials and reduction ranges

AOSIS concerned with impacts lowest IPCC ranges Saudi Arabia insisted on analysis “spillover

effects” India insisted on domestic reductions & life-style

changes Annex I: relation between reduction ranges and flexible mechanisms?

The Convention Dialogue (I)

Agenda: Building blocks of a post-2012 agreement “analysis of existing and potential investment

and financial flows relevant to the development of an effective and appropriate international response to climate change”

Result: Report co-facilitators to COP-13 in Bali Finance ministers meeting 11 December?

The Convention Dialogue (II)

Key issues: UNFCCC report:

Finance and investment challenge is “doable” Redirect finance flows, need for new finance Important role carbon market, but depends on ambition

post-2012 agreement Finance ministers 11 Dec?

The Bali Roadmap? No negotiations: China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Korea New dialogue/agenda item/new ad-hoc group/merge

with AWG “unintended consequences”

The Global Carbon Market:Transfer of Emission credits (1)

Credit transfers (Billion EUR/year)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

The Global Carbon Market:Transfer of Emission credits (2)

volume price total/yr2010 2 10 42015 3 21 12.62020 8 37 59.22025 10 50 1002030 12 64 153.6

€ 25 billion/yr decarbonise DC

energy investments

€ 33 billion/yr energy access poor

UNFCCC:

Mitigation:

200-210 bUS$/yr

(NAI 46%)

Carbon market:

5-100 bUS$/yr

Co-facilitators’ “building blocks”

AdaptationMitigation

Investment and Finance

Sustainable development

Global Action

Russian Proposal

May August December

Convention (COP)

Kyoto Protocol (CMP)IPC

C A

R4

Convention Dialogue:• Advancing development goals• Addressing action on adaptation• Realising full pot. of technology• Realising full pot. of market-based opportunities

4th WorkshopReport toCOP-13

Deforestation (SBSTA)

Technology Transfer (SBSTA)

Adaptation (SBSTA & SBI)

AWG (Art. 3.9) 4th Session

Review of the Kyoto Protocol

Bali Roadmap

• Ambition/objective• “principles”• Platform & process• Timeline• Recognition of action• Deforestation • Technology• Adaptation• Finance & investment• Russian Proposal?

• Commitments AI KP

• Russian Proposal?

• Incentives for action• Bunker fuels• ?

?

The Bali “roadmap”

The Road to Bali

9-11 September: Gleneagles Dialogue (Berlin, Germany) 24 September: High Level Meeting on Climate Change, UN

Secretary General Initiative (New York) 27-28 September: US Major Economies Initiative

(Washington DC)

24-25 October: Informal ministerial meeting (Bogor, Indonesia)

31 October: Third UNFCCC workshop on Finance and Investment to address climate change

12-16 November: IPCC adoption of Synthesis Report (Valencia, Spain)

10 December: Trade Ministers Meeting (Bali) 11 December: Finance Ministers Meeting (Bali) 3-14 December: UN Climate Negotiations (Bali)