8/14/2019 Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update
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Current prices for homes on the mark
Trends in priciCurrent levels of supply and dema
Value metri
market updat
Jim Duncan's Market Repo
CHARLOTTESVIL
229
Sunday March 14, 20
Report for the week
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2/10
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140
The median single family home price
in CHARLOTTESVILLE this week is
$349,900. The 575 homes have been on
the market for an average of 133 days.
THIS WEEK
Most Expensive Listing
Least Expensive Listing
Median List Price
Average List Price
Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Total Inventory
$ 349,900
$ 617,660
$ 14,950,000
$ 44,900
575
133Average Days on Market
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 171
22Absorbed This Week*
Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 26 %
Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 9 %
Percent Flip (price increased) 3 %
City Overview CHARLOTTESVILLE
0.25 - 0.50 acre
Altos Research Value Statistics
Market Action Index
Median Number of Bedrooms
Median Number of Bathrooms
Median House Size (sq ft)
Median Lot Size
Median Age
2,195
3.7
3.0
24
24Cool. Buyer's Market
Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supplyrelative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favorthe seller. See the section below for full details.
The Market Action Index has been
trending down lately, while inventoryand days-on-market are climbing. The
trends imply a weakening market.
To get a tightly targeted understanding
of homes in the market, we break eachlocale into quartiles. Each quartile is
25% of the homes listed.
QUARTILES
Characteristics per Quartile
Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend
Trend Key
No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend
Bed BathMed.Sqft.
Med.Age Inven. New
Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart
Avg.DoM
*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons.Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which propertiessold.
Most expensive 25% of homes2.5 - 5.0 acres3,848 4.0 4.0 20 143 11 3$ 929,0001 161
Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,535 4.0 3.0 8 144 17 8$ 399,9502 115
Lower-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre1,970 3.0 3.0 19 144 21 5$ 314,9503 110
Least expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre1,344 3.0 2.0 54 144 17 6$ 221,7504 148
We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend
graphs below.
Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE
8/14/2019 Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update
3/10
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140
PRICE
Again this week we see a downward
notch for prices. Prices continue to pull
back from the market's highs. The
Market Action Index is a good leading
indicator for the durability of this
trend.
QUARTILE PRICES
Price weakness is evident across the
board. All four quartiles have been in
price decline in recent weeks. Look to
the Market Action Index as a leading
indicator of the bottom of the market.
Often, we find insights by watching
pricing trends within the quartile
segments.
Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE
8/14/2019 Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update
4/10
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140
Despite recently falling prices, the price
per square foot has stayed reasonably
flat. This implies that there's a portion
of the market being priced at a
premium. You can investigate this
condition in the quartile details.
PRICE AND VALUE
INVENTORY
Inventory has been climbing lately.
Note that rising inventory alone does
not signal a weakening market. Look to
the Market Action Index and Days on
Market trends to gauge whether buyer
interest is keeping up with available
supply.
Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE
8/14/2019 Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update
5/10
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140
The CHARLOTTESVILLE market is
currently in the Buyer's Market zone
(below 30), though not strongly so. The
90-day Market Action Index stands this
week at 24 so buyers should expect find
reasonable levels of selection.
The market has been consistently cool
for several weeks. Demand level are low
relative to the available inventory. It's
a Buyer's market and prices continue to
fall. Look for a persistent shift inMarket Action before prices plateau or
begin to rise again.
The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a
statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.
An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a Seller's Market (a.k.a. "Hot Market")because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market willtypically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "ColdMarket") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months atthe current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.
MARKET ACTION INDEXResidential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can becharacterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the indexfalls into the Buyers Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downwardcorrection.
Not surprisingly given the overall
Market Action Index, all quartiles are in
the Buyer's Market zone with several
months of inventory given the current
rate of demand for homes in the
quartile. Watch the quartile for change
before the overall market shifts. Often
one end of the market (e.g. the low end)
will improve and signal a strengtheningmarket before the whole group changes
The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my pricerange?"
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES
Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE
8/14/2019 Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update
6/10
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140
DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)
The properties have been on the
market for an average of 133 days. Half
of the listings have come newly on the
market in the past 112 or so days.
DOM PER QUARTILE
It is not uncommon for the higher
priced homes in an area to take longer
to sell than those in the lower
quartiles.
Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE
8/14/2019 Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update
7/10
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140
22903Neighborhood DetailCHARLOTTESVILLE
Most Expensive Listing
Least Expensive Listing
Median List Price
Average List Price
Real-Time Market Profile Trend
Total Inventory
$ 331,938
$ 532,328
$ 6,160,000
$ 99,900
172
127Average Days on Market
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 178
7Absorbed This Week
The median single family home price
in CHARLOTTESVILLE 22903 this
week is $331,937.
THIS WEEK
Median Number of Bedrooms
Median Number of Bathrooms
Median House Size (sq ft)
Median Lot Size
Median Age
2,132
3.7
3.0
35Altos Research Value Statistics
0.25 - 0.50 acre
Market Action Index 27Cool. Buyer's Market
The Market Action Index has been
trending down lately, while inventory
and days-on-market are climbing. The
trends imply a weakening market.
PRICE
Again this week in this zip code we see
a downward notch for prices. Pricing
has been weak in recent weeks and
versus their absolute-high level. At thispoint, we will be looking for a persisten
upward shift in the Market Action
Index as a leading indicator for a
trough in prices.
Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE
8/14/2019 Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update
8/10
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140
PRICE PER QUARTILE
In the quartile market segments, we see
the market's price weakness almost
across the board. Prices in Quartile 4
have been mixed recently, while the res
of the market is trending downward.
Look for a strong, persistent up shift inthe Market Action Index as a leading
indicator of the trough in the market.
QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile
Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New
Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart
Avg.DoM
Most expensive 25% of homes1.0 - 2.5 acres3,881 4.0 4.0 12 43 4 1$ 895,0001 126
Upper-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre2,432 4.0 3.0 10 43 4 3$ 399,9002 121
Lower-middle 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre1,835 3.0 3.0 35 43 6 2$ 299,9003 115
Least expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre1,262 3.0 2.0 58 43 8 1$ 210,0004 148
The market's downward trends are
shared across both price and value.
People are recently placing less value
on homes (you can see the recent
declines in price per square foot as
evidence.) Look for significant changes
in the Market Action Index as a
precursor to price and value changes,
possibly as inflection points for good
investment opportunities.
PRICE AND VALUE
Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE
8/14/2019 Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update
9/10
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140
INVENTORY
Inventory has been falling in recent
weeks with 172 properties available this
week. Note that declining inventory
alone does not signal a strengthening
market. Look to the Market Action
Index to gauge whether buyer interestis falling with the available supply.
The CHARLOTTESVILLE 22903 market i
currently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone
(below 30), though not strongly so. The
90-day Market Action Index stands thisweek at 27 so buyers should expect find
reasonable levels of selection.
MARKET ACTION INDEX
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES
Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with several
months of inventory given the current
levels of demand. Watch the quartiles
for changes before the overall market
shifts.
Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for CHARLOTTESVILLE
8/14/2019 Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update
10/10
Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140
DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marke
for an average of 127 days. Half of the
listings have come newly on the market
in the past 112 or so days. Watch the 90
day DOM trend for signals of a changin
market.
DAYS ON MARKET
It is not uncommon for
the higher priced homes in an area
(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to
sell than those in the lower quartiles.
About Altos Research CorporationAltos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets acrossthe country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available
publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition tothe market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to thebest of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estatedecision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other AltosResearch publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with alicensed real estate agent or broker.
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