IIASA
Janusz Cofala, Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Emission Projections for 2020
Results from a study for the European Environment Agency
(Air Pollution Outlooks and Evaluation: Integrated Assessment Methodologies
and Tools Applied to Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases.
Report for the European Environment Agency, December 2000)
IIASA
Assumptions for 2010 and 2020
Activity levels:• “Shared Analysis” energy scenario of DG Energy
for EU-15 and accession countries for 2010 and 2020
Emission controls:• For 2010: Gothenburg Protocol• For 2020: Measures implied by the emission ceilings of the
Gothenburg Protocol applied to all new capital stock
IIASA
SO2 Emissions in Europe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe
Mill
ion
to
ns
1990 2010 2020
IIASA
NOx Emissions in Europe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe
Mill
ion
to
ns
1990 2010 2020
IIASA
VOC Emissions in Europe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe
Mill
ion
to
ns
1990 2010 2020
IIASA
NH3 Emissions in Europe
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe
Mill
ion
to
ns
1990 2010 2020
IIASA
AcidificationArea of Unprotected Ecosystems
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe
Mill
ion
he
cta
res
1990 2010 2020
IIASA
EutrophicationArea of Unprotected Ecosystems
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe
Mill
ion
he
cta
res
1990 2010 2020
IIASA
Unprotected Ecosystems 2020 % of ecosystems area
Acidification Eutrophication
IIASA
Excess Ozone Exposure (Health)above WHO Guidelines
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe
Mill
ion
pe
rso
n p
pm
.ho
urs
1990 2010 2020
IIASA
Excess Ozone Exposure (Vegetation)above Critical Levels
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
EU-15 Accession countries Other Europe
Mill
ion
km
2 exc
ess
pp
m.h
ou
rs
1990 2010 2020
IIASA
Ozone Exposure in 2020ppm.hours
AOT60 Excess AOT40
IIASA
Conclusions
• Emission ceilings of the Gothenburg Protocol in 2010 imply certain emission control measures/legislation
• The same measures/legislation, if applied to the capital stock renewed after 2010, will lead in many cases to even lower national emissions in 2020
• These ‘autonomous’ improvements will not be sufficient to reach the environmental long-term targets by 2020
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Slides of this presentation
in Powerpoint format
are available at
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains
On the Internet
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