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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Sch öpp, W. Winiwarter. The CAFE baseline scenarios: Key findings. Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5. 2000 2010 2020. Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3 ] - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes.
Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter
The CAFE baseline scenarios:
Key findings
Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5
2000 2010 2020
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Loss in life expectancyattributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
0
3
6
9
12
15
Au
stri
a
Be
lgiu
m
De
nma
rk
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Ire
land
Italy
Lu
xem
bou
rg
Ne
ther
lan
ds
Po
rtu
ga
l
Sp
ain
Sw
ede
n
UK
To
tal E
U-1
5
Cze
ch R
ep
.
Est
on
ia
Hu
nga
ry
La
tvia
Lith
ua
nia
Ma
lta
Po
lan
d
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
To
tal N
MS
To
tal E
U-2
5
2000 2010 2020
Health-relevant ozone concentrations[SOMO35, ppb.days]
2000 2010 2020
Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year]
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Au
stri
a
Be
lgiu
m
De
nm
ark
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Ire
lan
d
Ita
ly
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Po
rtu
ga
l
Sp
ain
Sw
ed
en
UK
Cze
ch R
ep
.
Est
on
ia
Hu
ng
ary
La
tvia
Lith
ua
nia
Po
lan
d
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
2000 2010 2020
Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution
Acid deposition to forests
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Aus
tria
Bel
giu
m
Den
mar
k
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ger
ma
ny
Gre
ece
Ire
lan
d
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
her
land
s
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
ede
n
UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gar
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uan
ia
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Tot
al N
MS
Tot
al E
U-2
5
2000 2010 2020
Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas
Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
Semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads [km2]
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
France Germany Ireland Netherlands UK
2000 2010 2020
Excess of critical loads for eutrophication
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Tot
al N
MS
Tot
al E
U-2
5
2000 2010 2020
Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication
Conclusions
• With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future.
• However, problems will not be entirely resolved:
– PM remains serious (~5 months life expectancy loss in 2020)
– Ozone:
• Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several 1000 cases in 2020)
• Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of AOT40 critical level will prevail
– Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3
– Eutrophication remains unresolved
SO2 emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
NewMember
States
Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NOx emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
New Member
States
Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NOx emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25
Power generationPower generation
Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion
Industrial processesIndustrial processes
Domestic
DomesticGasoline cars
Gasoline cars
Diesel carsDiesel cars
Off-road
Diesel heavy duty veh.
Diesel heavy duty veh.
Off-road
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2000 2020
VOC emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
New Member
States
Power generation Industry HouseholdsTransport Agriculture Solvents Waste National Emission Ceilings
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NH3 emissions “Pre-CAP reform” scenario [kt]
EU-15
NewMember
States
Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
PM2.5 emissions by sector “With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
NewMember
States
Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15
Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion
Industrial processesIndustrial processes
Diesel exhaust, cars
Diesel exhaust, carsDiesel exhaust, HDT
Non-exhaust Non-exhaust
Off-road Off-road
Agriculture Agriculture
Domestic, wood stoves
Domestic, wood stoves
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2000 2020
Conclusions
• While accounting for continued economic growth …
• National emissions of air pollutants will decrease up to 2020: SO2 -65%, NOx-50%, VOC -45%, NH3 -4%, PM2.5 -45%
• Due to structural changes and emission control legislation
• Relevance of sectors for further measures will change.
– Small combustion sources!
– Industrial processes, solvents!
– Off-road vehicles and machinery!
• Emissions from maritime activities will surpass land-based emissions of EU-25