GLOBAL COVERAGELooking Back – Looking Ahead

Boyd Sutton

Outline

• A Look Back– What we were asked to do and how we did it– What we found– What we recommended– What happened

• Some Thoughts for the Future– Recommendations– Pitfalls

What We Were Asked to Do

• Define “Global Coverage” and related terms• Define a process for accomplishing “adequate”

Global Coverage• Table options for:

– Alternative strategies– Collection and analysis objectives– What “baseline” knowledge we need to maintain– Approach to “surge”– Measuring progress and performance

Cartoon

• Robert’s scanner broke

• Caption is:– “Remember when we had just one big

problem?– Today we see hundreds of destabilizing

situations in what we can now call– THE NEW WORLD DISORDER

How We Went About It

• Interviewed more than 70 people– Senior policy and military customers

• NSC, State, Defense, Treasury, USTR• JCS, Commands

• Senior intelligence managers and workers– Production agencies– Collectors and reporters

• Reviewed lots of documentation

Customers’ Needs

• Fairly simple: can be listed on one page

• Vast majority can be substantially met with open sources of information– But this demands precision collection, expert

knowledge, and processing

Basic Requirements

• Political—who is in, who is out• Economic• Diplomatic• Military• Societal• Infrastructure• Geospatial• US Interests

Selected Key Findings

• Consensus in GC’s importance– But few at lower levels aware of DCI’s strong

support• Poor communication from DCI downwards

• Customer believed appropriate balance of effort should be 70/30– Intelligence managers believed it should be

90/10• Poor communications with customers

Selected Key Findings

• Broad consensus among customers regarding needs– But none among intelligence managers

• Poor communication• Turf issues

• Divergent views of what intelligence program resources should be included– Strong military position that all “their”

resources “off limits”• Turf trumps common interest

Selected Key Findings

• Widespread concern regarding open sources– How viewed by senior managers– How used by analysts– Current and projected resources

• Need to look seriously at “commercial industry of open source providers”

• Acquire processed “knowledge” not just information

Framework

• Effective program requires clear, universal understanding on three key points:– Strategic intent: what do you want to achieve?– Definition of “global coverage” – what should

it mean to everyone?– Community framework: overall concept

Strategic Intent

• Three options:– Global Intelligence

• “Full service” but on a limited scale• Enough coverage so there are few surprises

– Focused Attention• Avoid defined categories of “major” surprises.

Accept others, respond well

– Quick Reaction• Accept many surprises, and focus on efficient

response.

Definition

• What is “Global Coverage?” Two options.– UNIVERSAL meaning of GC:

• General information for all countries, everything that is not a hard target issue

– RESTRICTED meaning of GC:• Intelligence for a defined set of countries

– Which countries?– What substance?

Framework

• What are the pillars of Global Coverage? ONE OPTION. No other came close.– Minimum baseline

• Knowledge, expertise, resources routinely applied

– Watch• Focus of routine attention to meet warning objectives

– Surge• Focused increase in resources to address a developing

situation

– Routine Services• Servicing customers’ routine (non-crisis) needs

Conclusions/Recommendations

• If everything is a priority, nothing is….– First, decide on strategic intent– Second, focus on what is essential

• Requirements versus “desirements”• Difficult but explicit decisions about which risks are

acceptable and which are not

• Develop a common language– Consistent definitions—common

understanding

Conclusions/Recommendations

• Establish a common framework—the pillars– Minimum baseline—what to “know” all the time– Watch—what to watch all the time– Surge—how to get better fast, when needed– Routine services—juggling customers’ non-crisis

needs

• MAKE EXPLICIT CHOICES ABOUT HOW YOU ARE GOING TO HANDLE EACH

• If you cannot measure it, you cannot manage it.– Regular program of evaluation

• “Trust but verify”—the Achilles’ heel of management

What Happened?

• NOTHING!

• DCI said “thanks” and shelved the study

• Only “decision” was to decide nothing

• Several senior managers praised report

• Only copies disseminated were those I circulated for comment.