Looking ahead to 2012

Looking ahead to 2012

ICT Research Network

Looking ahead

•  Europe -‐ economy, ci@zens, policies •  Business -‐ surviving defla@on, embracing mobility, crea@ng intelligence

•  Technology mandate -‐ service orienta@on, footprint expansion, sourcing outcomes

•  Industrial revolu@on -‐ local strength, newcomers from adjacencies, lawyers invade

•  Public sector challenges grow

30 December 2011 ICT Research Network 2

Contributors The following independent analysts and firms have contributed to this document: •  Pim Bilderbeek, The METISfiles, Amsterdam. e:pim@[email protected] •  Jaime Garcia Cantero, Madrid. e:[email protected] •  Claus Egge, clausegge.com, London. e:[email protected] •  Mar@n Hingley, ITCandor, London. e:[email protected] •  Simona Macellari, The Innova@on Group, Milan.

simona.macellari@[email protected] •  Roberto Masiero, The Innova@on Group, Milan.

roberto.masiero@[email protected] •  Puni Rajah, The Governance Board, London. [email protected] •  Peter Perregaard, Copenhagen. [email protected] •  Carsten Schmidt, HENRY Corpora@on, Copenhagen. cs@[email protected] •  Ezio Viola, The Innova@on Group, Milan. ezio.viola@[email protected]


The Euro Crunch bites ICT sales in EMEA •  Our industry tends in general to grow faster than GDP, due to

automa@on and digi@sa@on: –  however ITC sales can fall even faster than GDP in @mes of recession.

We saw falls in both 2001-‐3 and 2008-‐9 downturns and you should expect the same in 2012.

–  Economic news has been dire in 2011 as countries struggle with sovereign debt, especially in southern ones using the Euro

–  On the posi@ve side there are signs of modernisa@on in many African states, with vendors building new offices in the hope of winning early business.

–  We will also see new business from disrupted countries stabilising and becoming more democra@c.

–  Business spending is likely to be less affected than in 2008, largely because there can be few surprises likely to result in a sudden loss of confidence.

–  Consumer spending, on the other hand, will not be countervailing as it was in 2008 – the reduc@on in household budgets are too palpable.

By: Mar(n Hingley 30 December 2011 ICT Research Network 4

Causes, effects and vicious cycles

Austerity measures

Disinvestment Lagging

technology literacy

Defla@on

By: Roberto Masiero

Successful ICT vendors will: •  Iden@fy and focus on fast

growing ICT market segments, ver@cal markets and new services models (incredibly enough, some of the largest ICT Vendors do NOT have any focused mobile strategy yet!)


Demographic dividend

Delayed re@rement

Healthcare innova@on

Greater reliance on technology

By: Simona Macellari

Successful ICT vendors will: •  tackle this flourishing but

fragmented market by addressing this issue both in terms of offering and delivery model;

•  Focus on economic sustainability of projects: sound business planning, public and private partnerships as well as modular approaches and sound economic models will make the difference between a promising idea and a feasible project

•  Carefully analyse governance models to ensure compa@bility with processes and organiza@ons

30 December 2011 ICT Research Network

Embracing defla@on

Technology con@nues to create

defla@onary pressures

Businesses and governments find smarter ways to achieve results with fewer tradi@onal resources

By: Ezio Viola

Successful ICT vendors will: •  Be smart to understand

business issues and benefits of their client to iden@fy their key core capabili@es

•  Be smart in helping their clients to adopt a cloud strategy and move to a cloud based delivery model

•  Be clever in providing skills for the innova@ve enterprise use of consumer IT


Enterprise customers sehle into the post PC era

Consumeriza,on •  In 2011 by first ,me in history people accessing the Internet from a “non PC” device (tablets, smartphones, TV, etc) overpassed those accessing from PCs

Transparency •  Access paGerns render tradi,onal organisa,onal structures and business processes redundant

New budget sources •  In 2012 we´ll con,nue seeing strong growth in mobile markets like apps, mobile media, adver,sement or gaming

By: Jaime Garcia Cantero

Successful ICT vendors will: •  Redefine their strategy

for a new world where PC is not the main interface for accessing informa@on

•  Learn from consumers market to create excellent user experiences priori@zing design and usability

•  Invest in innova@on to address new environment opportuni@es


Organisa@onal intelligence is the new holy grail

Intelligent enterprise

Business as mobile

Pervasive analy@cs

Social fabric

Comfort in the cloud

By: Roberto Masiero

Successful ICT vendors will: •  Re-‐think their business in

terms of mobile services •  Take advantage of

informa@on and organiza@onal asymmetries through an advanced use of the Analy@cs and of the Social Networks

•  Deliver their services in Cloud


Service oriented mandate

SO beyond architecture

Capital versus opera@onal

Sourcing drivers

By: Jaime Garcia Cantero

Successful ICT vendors will: •  Embrace service oriented

delivery models and pay per use

•  Make their offer much more flexible and loca@on agnos@c

•  Use financial tools to reduce customer´s CAPEX


Maintenance gets new respect

New challenges to vendor maintenance fees

Opera@onal technology comes under ICT responsibility

Business con@nuity mandate recognises maintenance as cri@cal

By: Puni Rajah

Successful ICT vendors will: •  Demonstrate respect for

customers’ concerns and communicate value in maintenance offerings

•  Embrace social technologies to reduce cost of maintenance delivery, and pass on savings to customers


Volume

Value

Data analy@cs for the pioneers in 2012

In 2012 data analy@cs will grow in order to mine content in the vast estate of corporate storage. By joining unstructured data located in repositories across the web businesses aims to make beher and faster decisions. The data pioneers hope to find first mover advantage, but the prac@ce will eventually become widely adopted.

Successful ICT vendors will: •  Stop focusing on the ‘Big’ in Big

Data •  Instead drive the broad discussion

of analy@cs •  Content centric vendors decide to

lead in analy@cs

By: Claus Egge

Sourcing matures towards outcomes

Internal resources

Technology producers

Specialist skills

By: Puni Rajah

Successful ICT vendors will: •  Align sales and engagement teams

to keep pace with customers internal changes

•  Re-‐design delivery processes to cope with smaller contracts profitably


Local players prove to be more agile

•  Re-‐posi@oning becomes priority •  Consumeriza@on drives agenda

•  Cloud providers •  BPO stacks and brokers

•  Lower barriers to entry •  Compelling returns

By: Ezio Viola

Successful ICT vendors will: •  Enable and s@mulate the

growth of an ecosystem of new innova@ve local players

•  deliver plaoorms and services for a new wave of business applica@ons moving from transac@onal systems to new engagement, experien@al and personal fullfilment systems


Maturing markets pave way for newcomers

By: Peter Perregaard

Successful ICT vendors will:

•  Ensure cross-‐plaoorm capability on mobile plaoorms

•  Move to mobile as fast as possible

•  Apple will lose it's dominant posi@on in the smart phone market.

•  While Apple was eminent in understanding that people wanted a device that extended their personality rather than just technology, the economic situa@on in the industrialized world and the growth in developing countries means that there will be much more focus on price. This will give Nokia, Samsung and others a chance to re-‐define their posi@on in the smart phone marked and take share from Apple.

•  This will lead to an explosion of new companies that will develop Apps to more plaoorms trying to capitalize on the explosion of devices on Windows and Android. And applica@ons will become more "business-‐like" as more users buy for economic reasons rather than social.


The lawyers’ bill

Patent wars

•  The industry misses opportuni@es as management energy is distracted by legal issues

An@ trust

•  Plaoorm giants like Facebook will face increasing an@-‐trust ahen@on

By: Peter Perregaard

Successful ICT vendors will: •  accept legal counsel

and rising costs as part of the ICT industry

•  Co-‐operate and align along interest groups to be more effec@ve


Digital Divide Persists

By: Pim Bilderbeek 30 December 2011 ICT Research Network 17

Trends: Government out of touch •Ci@zen services are rolled out slower than demand Policies fail to keep pace •NetNeutrality Rising need for con@nuity management •Who is responsible? •Who will fund?

Successful ICT vendors will: Support ci@zens in their quest for a digital Europe by helping governments embrace social networking, open data, and the cloud Show support for net neutrality. (if you dont, look at what happened to go daddy for suppor@ng SOPA) Help par@cipa@ng actors communicate to each other about dependencies in the digital supply chain and beyond.

Looking ahead to 2012

ICT Research Network