General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 1/19
Steps towards the 2000 Watt Society in Switzerland
Thorsten F. Schulz
Leonardo Barreto, Socrates Kypreos, Alexander Wokaun
General Energy Research Department, Energy Economics Group
Paul Scherrer Institute
ETSAP Workshop, Florenz, 22 - 26. November 2004
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 2/19
Steps towards a 2000 W SocietyOutline
Definition of a 2000 W Society
total and fossil energy per person, time-depended reduction aims
Model Assumptions
population, GDP, electricity sector, useful energy demand
Results: Reduction path towards a 2000 W Society
primary energy (per capita), relevance of new technologies
CO2 emissions , costs of the intermediate goal
Concluding Remarks
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 3/19
Factor 1.6 Factor 2.5
Factor 2 Factor 6
Pri
mar
y E
ne
rgy
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n i
n W
att
/ P
erso
n
Fossil: Global Aim
Vision of the 2000 Watt SocietySource: M. Koschenz, A. Pfeiffer, EMPA, September 2004
“ 2000 Watt Fossil Society“
Other Renewable Energies
Hydropower
Nuclear Energy Carriers
Fossil Energy Carriers
Western Europe, Scenario C1 [Nakicenovic, Grübler, McDonald, 1998]
Scenario IV, Fossil Energy [Eckerie, 1997]
Fossil Primary Energy Consumption without Net Imports of Goods
Total Primary Energy, incl. Net Imports of Goods
CO2 – Law: 42.3Mio t CO2 ( 5.6 t CO2/Person)
Aim: Total Primary Energy / (Capita &Time) = 2000 W
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 4/19
Population and GDP development
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Po
pu
lati
on
(M
illi
on
In
hab
itan
ts)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
GD
P (
Year
2000 =
100)
Population ("A Trend" Scenario)
GDP
Source: BFS(2001), Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz 2000-2060 SECO (2004), Langfristige Szenarien für das GDP, not published
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 5/19
Assumption Regarding Electricity
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2050
[PJ]
Imports
Exports
From Nuclear Energy
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 6/19
Useful Energy Demand 2000 - 2050
Sector Growth [%]
Agriculture 16.5
Commerce 27.0
Industry (chemical, other) 28.8
Industry (iron and steel, pulp and paper, metals) 23.5
Households 7.5
Transportation (aviation, navigation, rail) 94.3
Transportation (road) 41.1
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 7/19
Primary Energy per Capita Development 2000 – 2050 Aim: Reduction of Fossil Energy by Half
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Baseline 2000 Baseline 2050 Scenario 2050
[ kW
/ ca
pit
a ] Other Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear Energy
Fossil Energy
Electricity Exports
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 8/19
Effect on the Primary Energy Use
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Baseline 2000 Baseline 2050 Szenario 2050
[ P
J ]
Other
Wind
Solar Energy
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear Energy
Natural Gas
Coal
Crude Oil
Electricity Exports
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 9/19
Final Energy Use – Residential Heating
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Baseline 2000 Baseline 2050 Scenario 2050
[ P
J ]
Natural Gas
District Heat
Other
Electricity (Heat Pumps)
Heating Oil
Biomass
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 10/19
Final Energy Use – Motorcar Sector Baseline Scenario
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[ P
J ]
DieselGasoline
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 11/19
Final Energy Use – Motorcar SectorNew Technologies
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
[ P
J ]
Gasoline + Diesel (conv.)
Gasoline (advanced)
Gasoline Hybrid
Natural Gas
Natural Gas Hybrid
Methanol Fuel Cell
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 12/19
Primary Energy Use - Share of Biomass Technologies
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[ P
J ]
Pellet Combustion Conv. Heating System CHP (>2MWel)Biogas SFH Methanation Fischer-Tropsch SynthesisHydrogen from Biomass Potential
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 13/19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
[ M
illi
on
To
ns
CO
2 ]
Grey EmssionsTransport
Transportation
Industry
Households
Commerce
Agriculture
Electricity Exports
Upstream
CO2- Emissions: Baseline Scenario
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 14/19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
[ M
illi
on
To
ns
CO
2 ]
Grey EmssionsTransport
Transportation
Industry
Households
Commerce
Agriculture
Electricity Exports
Upstream
CO2-Emissions: 2000 Watt Society
Factor 2
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 15/19
CO2- Emissions in the Transport Sector
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
[ M
illi
on
To
ns
CO
2 ]
Baseline - Total
Reduction Scenario -Total
Baseline - Grey Emissions
Reduction Scenario -Grey Emissions
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 16/19
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[Bil
lio
n C
HF
]
Deadweight Loss
Q
S
D
SS´
D
P
Eq2
Eq1Eq3
Eq1: Baseline EquilibriumEq2: 2 kW per Capita Constraint Partial Equilibrium with Elastic DemandsEq3: Baseline Demand – Demand Reduction
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 17/19
Comparison to the GDP
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
[ %
]
Deadweight Loss / GDP Additional Energy Costs / GDP GDP-Growth
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 18/19
Concluding Remarks
Cutting the fossil primary energy by half until 2050 seems tobe possible from a technical and economical perspective
• innovative Vehicle-Powertrain
• building configuration, heating systems
• more efficient industrial processes
The impact on the GDP would be significant but affordable; the share of the energy system cost on the GDP would drop.
Already the contemplated aim results in significant structural changes in the energy system
• increased use of solid biomass
General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 19/19
Acknowledgments
The PSI-Energy Economics Group acknowledges the financial support of the NCCR-Project and the work of Maryse Labriet
• Work has been directed by Prof. Alexander Wokaun and was first presented to the SATW Annual Congress: “Anforderungen an ein Nachhaltiges Energiesystem” Lausanne, CH; September, 2004
• Calculations were done by Thorsten Schulz with the support of
• Socrates Kypreos and Leonardo Barreto