General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 1/19

Steps towards the 2000 Watt Society in Switzerland

Thorsten F. Schulz

Leonardo Barreto, Socrates Kypreos, Alexander Wokaun

General Energy Research Department, Energy Economics Group

Paul Scherrer Institute

ETSAP Workshop, Florenz, 22 - 26. November 2004

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 2/19

Steps towards a 2000 W SocietyOutline

Definition of a 2000 W Society

total and fossil energy per person, time-depended reduction aims

Model Assumptions

population, GDP, electricity sector, useful energy demand

Results: Reduction path towards a 2000 W Society

primary energy (per capita), relevance of new technologies

CO2 emissions , costs of the intermediate goal

Concluding Remarks

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 3/19

Factor 1.6 Factor 2.5

Factor 2 Factor 6

Pri

mar

y E

ne

rgy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n i

n W

att

/ P

erso

n

Fossil: Global Aim

Vision of the 2000 Watt SocietySource: M. Koschenz, A. Pfeiffer, EMPA, September 2004

“ 2000 Watt Fossil Society“

Other Renewable Energies

Hydropower

Nuclear Energy Carriers

Fossil Energy Carriers

Western Europe, Scenario C1 [Nakicenovic, Grübler, McDonald, 1998]

Scenario IV, Fossil Energy [Eckerie, 1997]

Fossil Primary Energy Consumption without Net Imports of Goods

Total Primary Energy, incl. Net Imports of Goods

CO2 – Law: 42.3Mio t CO2 ( 5.6 t CO2/Person)

Aim: Total Primary Energy / (Capita &Time) = 2000 W

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 4/19

Population and GDP development

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Po

pu

lati

on

(M

illi

on

In

hab

itan

ts)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

GD

P (

Year

2000 =

100)

Population ("A Trend" Scenario)

GDP

Source: BFS(2001), Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz 2000-2060 SECO (2004), Langfristige Szenarien für das GDP, not published

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 5/19

Assumption Regarding Electricity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000 2050

[PJ]

Imports

Exports

From Nuclear Energy

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 6/19

Useful Energy Demand 2000 - 2050

Sector Growth [%]

Agriculture 16.5

Commerce 27.0

Industry (chemical, other) 28.8

Industry (iron and steel, pulp and paper, metals) 23.5

Households 7.5

Transportation (aviation, navigation, rail) 94.3

Transportation (road) 41.1

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 7/19

Primary Energy per Capita Development 2000 – 2050 Aim: Reduction of Fossil Energy by Half

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Baseline 2000 Baseline 2050 Scenario 2050

[ kW

/ ca

pit

a ] Other Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear Energy

Fossil Energy

Electricity Exports

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 8/19

Effect on the Primary Energy Use

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Baseline 2000 Baseline 2050 Szenario 2050

[ P

J ]

Other

Wind

Solar Energy

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear Energy

Natural Gas

Coal

Crude Oil

Electricity Exports

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 9/19

Final Energy Use – Residential Heating

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Baseline 2000 Baseline 2050 Scenario 2050

[ P

J ]

Natural Gas

District Heat

Other

Electricity (Heat Pumps)

Heating Oil

Biomass

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 10/19

Final Energy Use – Motorcar Sector Baseline Scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

[ P

J ]

DieselGasoline

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 11/19

Final Energy Use – Motorcar SectorNew Technologies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[ P

J ]

Gasoline + Diesel (conv.)

Gasoline (advanced)

Gasoline Hybrid

Natural Gas

Natural Gas Hybrid

Methanol Fuel Cell

Hydrogen Fuel Cell

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 12/19

Primary Energy Use - Share of Biomass Technologies

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

[ P

J ]

Pellet Combustion Conv. Heating System CHP (>2MWel)Biogas SFH Methanation Fischer-Tropsch SynthesisHydrogen from Biomass Potential

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 13/19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

[ M

illi

on

To

ns

CO

2 ]

Grey EmssionsTransport

Transportation

Industry

Households

Commerce

Agriculture

Electricity Exports

Upstream

CO2- Emissions: Baseline Scenario

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 14/19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

[ M

illi

on

To

ns

CO

2 ]

Grey EmssionsTransport

Transportation

Industry

Households

Commerce

Agriculture

Electricity Exports

Upstream

CO2-Emissions: 2000 Watt Society

Factor 2

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 15/19

CO2- Emissions in the Transport Sector

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

[ M

illi

on

To

ns

CO

2 ]

Baseline - Total

Reduction Scenario -Total

Baseline - Grey Emissions

Reduction Scenario -Grey Emissions

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 16/19

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

[Bil

lio

n C

HF

]

Deadweight Loss

Q

S

D

SS´

D

P

Eq2

Eq1Eq3

Eq1: Baseline EquilibriumEq2: 2 kW per Capita Constraint Partial Equilibrium with Elastic DemandsEq3: Baseline Demand – Demand Reduction

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 17/19

Comparison to the GDP

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

[ %

]

Deadweight Loss / GDP Additional Energy Costs / GDP GDP-Growth

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 18/19

Concluding Remarks

Cutting the fossil primary energy by half until 2050 seems tobe possible from a technical and economical perspective

• innovative Vehicle-Powertrain

• building configuration, heating systems

• more efficient industrial processes

The impact on the GDP would be significant but affordable; the share of the energy system cost on the GDP would drop.

Already the contemplated aim results in significant structural changes in the energy system

• increased use of solid biomass

General Energy Research Department Florence 24.11.04 ETSAP Workshop T.F.Schulz 19/19

Acknowledgments

The PSI-Energy Economics Group acknowledges the financial support of the NCCR-Project and the work of Maryse Labriet

• Work has been directed by Prof. Alexander Wokaun and was first presented to the SATW Annual Congress: “Anforderungen an ein Nachhaltiges Energiesystem” Lausanne, CH; September, 2004

• Calculations were done by Thorsten Schulz with the support of

• Socrates Kypreos and Leonardo Barreto